Money Lines:
Favorites: 84-43 for +23.77 units
Underdogs: 29-23 +14.05 units
Total: 87-50 for +37.82 units
Run Lines: 3-3 +0.88 units
_____________________________________________________
Ok, so I ended up pulling out that Angels game last night to split the late games to go 7-4 for a profit of about 2 and a half units on the day. On to today's card. Posted a play last night so I will cut and paste that here first.
Baltimore -155: Tampa is not hitting right now and Cabrera has really pitched well in the past against them. In 7 career starts, he's 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP, and a .208. That WHIP isn't exactly ideal, but based on the BAA, we know it's clearly due to his past problems with walking batters. He's worked on this problem and has made progress this year, although the last few games have seen more walks than he'd like. But Tampa's offense is young and far from the most patient in the league, so I think he'll be able to control them tomorrow. Anyway, I like what I've seen of Cabrera this year and think he'll continue to have success against a seriously slumping Tampa offense.
On the other side, Casey Fossum will be taking the hill. Fossum has never been solid on the road, where he sports a 5.77 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a .293 BAA. He's had a little success against Baltimore, going 6-4 in 11 starts, but most of that was against a bad O's team while playing for a much better team in the Red Sox. I don't see this one staying close. And I'll continue to try to get back on track with my bigger plays. 2.33 units to win 1.5.
Adding on:
LA Dodgers -123: In my opinion, the public still gives this Florida team too much respect because of their hot start. Young teams like this are prone to streaks, and we saw a very hot one over the last couple weeks. But they have come crashing back to Earth recently. The team is batting a paltry .217 over the last 7 days and were no-hit through 5 last night by Brett Tomko. Additionally, the Marlins have never been able to hit Derek Lowe (e.g., MCab is 0 for 13 against him). Over his career, Lowe is 5-2 against Florida in 6 starts, with a 4.29 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a .217 BAA. He's had a bit less success in Dolphins Stadium, but I think the fact that LA is playing so well on the road this year will make up for that.
The Dodgers come in to today's game having won 7 of their last 9 against the Marlins, including 5 of 6 in Dolphins Stadium. And they face a young pitcher making only his 3rd start of the year after having blister problems. He's been horrible in his career against lefties and the Dodgers have a few solid ones in their lineup (Gonzalez, Pierre, Ethier, and Furcal (SH)). Lastly, Mitre has been horrible in day games during his short career, goig 1-7 in 12 starts with a 6.11 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a .304 BAA. 1.23 units to win 1.
Currently I have leans on Cincinatti (big pitching mismatch IMO and the Reds knocked Albers around last week), San Diego (may have missed the value on this one as the line has dropped), White Sox, LAA and Toronto. Will be posting more plays in a bit. BOL to everyone on their cards today.
Favorites: 84-43 for +23.77 units
Underdogs: 29-23 +14.05 units
Total: 87-50 for +37.82 units
Run Lines: 3-3 +0.88 units
_____________________________________________________
Ok, so I ended up pulling out that Angels game last night to split the late games to go 7-4 for a profit of about 2 and a half units on the day. On to today's card. Posted a play last night so I will cut and paste that here first.
Baltimore -155: Tampa is not hitting right now and Cabrera has really pitched well in the past against them. In 7 career starts, he's 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP, and a .208. That WHIP isn't exactly ideal, but based on the BAA, we know it's clearly due to his past problems with walking batters. He's worked on this problem and has made progress this year, although the last few games have seen more walks than he'd like. But Tampa's offense is young and far from the most patient in the league, so I think he'll be able to control them tomorrow. Anyway, I like what I've seen of Cabrera this year and think he'll continue to have success against a seriously slumping Tampa offense.
On the other side, Casey Fossum will be taking the hill. Fossum has never been solid on the road, where he sports a 5.77 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a .293 BAA. He's had a little success against Baltimore, going 6-4 in 11 starts, but most of that was against a bad O's team while playing for a much better team in the Red Sox. I don't see this one staying close. And I'll continue to try to get back on track with my bigger plays. 2.33 units to win 1.5.
Adding on:
LA Dodgers -123: In my opinion, the public still gives this Florida team too much respect because of their hot start. Young teams like this are prone to streaks, and we saw a very hot one over the last couple weeks. But they have come crashing back to Earth recently. The team is batting a paltry .217 over the last 7 days and were no-hit through 5 last night by Brett Tomko. Additionally, the Marlins have never been able to hit Derek Lowe (e.g., MCab is 0 for 13 against him). Over his career, Lowe is 5-2 against Florida in 6 starts, with a 4.29 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a .217 BAA. He's had a bit less success in Dolphins Stadium, but I think the fact that LA is playing so well on the road this year will make up for that.
The Dodgers come in to today's game having won 7 of their last 9 against the Marlins, including 5 of 6 in Dolphins Stadium. And they face a young pitcher making only his 3rd start of the year after having blister problems. He's been horrible in his career against lefties and the Dodgers have a few solid ones in their lineup (Gonzalez, Pierre, Ethier, and Furcal (SH)). Lastly, Mitre has been horrible in day games during his short career, goig 1-7 in 12 starts with a 6.11 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a .304 BAA. 1.23 units to win 1.
Currently I have leans on Cincinatti (big pitching mismatch IMO and the Reds knocked Albers around last week), San Diego (may have missed the value on this one as the line has dropped), White Sox, LAA and Toronto. Will be posting more plays in a bit. BOL to everyone on their cards today.
