MLB: Thursday May 10th Plays

buffettgambler · May 10, 2007

White Sox @ Twins
Play: Twins -112
Intrinsic Value: -126
Consider Betting Price: -113
Comment:
Silva has shown many signs that he has returned to the pitcher that he was in 05, and is no longer the struggling pitcher he was last year. Two main signs that he has drastically improved is the notion that he has been much harder to hit home runs against, something that he was prone to allowing last year, which was especially concerning since he is a sinkerball pitcher. Another sign of him being a much improved pitcher is the notion that he has put forth solid starts against teams that have given him problems in past years, including the White Sox, as he pitched five strong innings against them early this year, allowing just one run on the road. Silva has always been a much better pitcher at home, and this year is no different. Adding a change up to his pitching arsenal has allowed him to keep hitters off balance, a pitch that has been giving the White Sox problems this year. Most of Silva’s problems against the White Sox have occurred on the road, where he is a much less effective pitcher. If he continues his success today, the White Sox should have trouble scoring throughout this game, as he is backed by the best bullpen in baseball. The White Sox lineup continues to struggle, clearly misses Thome and Posednick, and is more dangerous in their home park.

Ever since Contreras put forth that dominant season in 05, I have been claiming that it was unsustainable. So far, he appears to be proving me right, as he has followed last year’s mediocre year with a sub par year so far year to date. He has really struggled with his control this year, forcing him to pitch in the stretch in a higher rate of innings than he is accustomed to. Last year, the Twins gave him problems, while there are a few role players that have hit him well. Although he has put forth solid road performances year to date, he has always been a better pitcher at home. He is backed by a decent bullpen, but a bullpen that appears to be struggling pitching to this pesky Twins lineup.

buffettgambler · May 10, 2007

Pirates @ Cubs
Play: Cubs -183
Intrinsic Value: -233
Consider Betting Price: -210
Comment:
On the surface, this appears to be a lot of basis points to lay on the Cubs, but fundamentally speaking, the Cubs are undervalued in my opinion. Zambrano’s early season struggles has made him undervalued, while the public is once again shying away from the Cubs now that their lineup has gone dormant the last couple of games. Expect Zambrano to turn things around sooner or later. Part of the reason for his early season struggles has been the notion of having to pitch a lot of games in cold weather, something that will not be the case in today’s game. He has always been more effective in warm weather day games such as today. Although he struggled pitching against the Pirates last year, this problem lacks sustainability, as the Pirates have been one of the most anemic lineups against power pitchers this year. Their bats have struggled of late, and have never been nearly as potent on the road the last couple of years. Their situational hitting has been non existent of late, which should help Zambrano’s recent problems of pitching out of the stretch. He is also backed by the better and deeper bullpen.

I have no problem betting on the Cubs lineup when they become out of favor, as they have one of the deepest and most potent lineups in baseball that gives the pitcher no breaks. This holds especially true when adding a ninth bat like Zambrano. Malholm solid season a couple of years back appears to be a decent memory as he just looks horrible on the mound this year. He has never had overpowering stuff, and relied on command and finesse style of pitching to get hitters out. However, he simply does not have either this year, and his lack of confidence on the mound is quite evident. He has never been an effective pitcher on the road, as he comes into today’s game with a career road ERA of 5.55. Day games have also given him problems, while there are a few hitters in the Cubs lineup that have hit him well in limited at bats. The Cubs got a good look of most of the Pirates bullpen arms a couple of days back, and Malholm is not expected to go deep into this game.

buffettgambler · May 10, 2007

Indians @ Angels
Play: Indians +128
Intrinsic Value: +102
Consider Betting Price: +124
Comment:
Escobar has always been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. However, that simply does not appear to be the case any longer, as he has now been carrying an inflated price tag most of the year. There is no denying his dominance on the mound of late; however, four of his five starts this year were against slumping lineups at the time, which will not be the case in today’s game. He has always been much easier to pick up during day games, and his inability to work a high pitch count should force him to not eat up a lot of innings against a lineup built to work opponents pitch counts early in games. Although he is backed by a solid bullpen, it is a bullpen that took a huge blow with the injury to Spiers. The Indians lineup is much more talented than their counterparts, and have been more effective during day games and on the road the last couple of years.

Sowers early season struggles has forced him to become out of favor, but I have no problem backing a young pitcher with a ton of upside when the price is right. This may be a good spot for him to regain some of that confidence that has disappeared in recent outings, as he is up against one of the most anemic lineups in baseball. It is also a lineup that does not match up with his finesse style, as they have really been struggling hitting the off speed pitch this series. Sowers has put forth two solid starts against the Angels in his career, and his best outing this year was against this team. He bounced back well from his other horrible outing last month, and this appears to be a spot for him to do the same. He has shown to be more effective during day games in both his seasons, and when on, his style allows him to work deep into games.

buffettgambler · May 10, 2007

Devil Rays @ Orioles
Play: Orioles -152
Intrinsic Value: -205
Consider Betting Price: -187
Comment:
I have no problem laying this many basis points against what might be the worst road pitcher in baseball right now. Many though that there was no way that Fossum would be able to put up road numbers anywhere near his eight plus ERA last year, but so far is right in pace to duplicate last years disastrous road performances. It has clearly become a mental problem as well, and this park has not been terribly kind to him either. The Orioles have gotten a lot of looks at his unorthodox pitching style during the last couple of year. There are some hitters in today’s lineup that have hit him well. His style of pitching also makes him vulnerable to be stolen off of, which is not a deficiency you want against this Orioles team. He has never been an innings eater type, which also does not bode well for the Devil Rays chances, as he is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball, whose front end is simply a nightmare. The Orioles are a more potent lineup at home, have been hitting southpaws better of late, and have become a deeper lineup since the return of both Hernandez and Payton.

Cabrera appears to be a much improved pitcher this year. His career has been plagued bouts of no control and high walk totals, something in which he just could not overcome. This year, his control is much improved, and his first four starts, he walked just seven batters. Although in his last three starts he has shown some lack of control once again, in two of those starts, he has proven that he could overcome a high walk total and still put solid outings together. He has always been a much better pitcher at home and during night games. He has had success against the Devil Rays throughout his career as they have really have had trouble getting hits off of him. They have been unable to take advantage of his high walk total in the past, and with the way they have been hitting of late and have always hit on the road, the odds of them doing such this game is slim. He is also backed by a much better bullpen that proved to be the difference in last night’s game.

buffettgambler · May 10, 2007

Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays: -144
Intrinsic Value: -174
Consider Betting Price: -146
Comment:
It has been a while since I have bet on Holliday as he rarely comes at a price below his fundamental value. However, I am not surprised in the least that he is coming with value today after his last start, with the recent play of the Blue Jays hitters, and against the Red Sox. Expect a competitor like Holliday to be primed for a nice outing after coming off his worst start of his career. He has already put forth two quality outings against the Red Sox this year, including a gem in his last go around where he went eight strong and struck out ten batters. Although he does not have the most impressive numbers against the Red Sox, most of his struggles have occurred in Fenway, where the Red Sox are a much more potent lineup and where Holliday has been less effective. He has been dominant at home this year, coming into today’s game with an ERA in the one’s in this park. He is one of the best pitchers in baseball in going deep into games, and avoiding the front end of the Blue Jays bullpen. This should allow them to put forth solid pitchers throughout the game if Holliday is unable to go the distance.

Wakefield’s knuckleball has been dominant so far this season, but this may be a good spot for it to slowdown, as he now has to pitch to the same lineup for the third time in three weeks. There have been some Blue Jays hitters making good contact against it so far this year, while there are a couple with good lifetime numbers against the knuckleball. It is much less a novelty for hitters after already seeing it twice in three weeks. Wakfield has always been more effective indoors and during day games, two variables that will not be in his favor today. He has shown a preference of pitching at home as his career progresses as well.

buffettgambler · May 10, 2007

Giants @ Rockies
Play: Rockies -115
Intrinsic Value: -151
Consider Betting Price: -137
Comment:
I am a big fan of Lowry’s. However, this is one situation that has caused him nightmares in his career- having to pitch in Coors Field. His looping curve and change up has always had the propensity to hang in the thin air, making his two most effective pitchers tailor made to hit hard. His numbers in this park has not surprisingly been horrific, as he comes into today’s game with a career ERA of over 11 in this park, allowing 29 runs in a little over 23 innings of work. Lowry has also never been nearly as effective pitcher away from home, as his career road ERA still remains over five. It is no surprise that there are a few hitters with past success against him. The Rockies have a young and dangerous lineup that is much more potent at home, and have a couple of young hitters that were struggling early in the season and are starting to turn things around. Lowry is also backed by a sub par bullpen, which should give the Rockies scoring opportunities throughout this game.

Cook is pitching in the wrong division. The reason as that the lineups in his division have a much higher rate of left handed hitters than average, a type of hitter he just can’t solve. Although he has struggled against the Giants in the past, most of his struggles have occurred on the road against them. He has put forth quality home starts in three of his last four outings against them. He has struggled against a good amount of hitters in the lineup, but has also dominated some as well. His ability to get the double play ball allows him to get out of jams much better than most pitchers. He also seems to be improving a bit against teams in his division, and has yet to face this Giants lineup this year. The Giants hitters are cooling off a bit of late, having scored in just four innings during their last three games.

finite · May 10, 2007

Have to duck the Indians since I can not reach the target number but with you on the rest GL

Jibba · May 10, 2007

BOL today BG. Let us know if there's anything we can do to help out with your situation regarding the tout. I'm in Mass, so it likely isn't much help, but I am a lawyer and know how to right a nice nasty letter to scare the shit out of people.

Regarding the games, I absolutely love the O's today and glad to see you on them. Like the Cubbies but wasn't all that interested in paying that chalk. But seeing you on it, I'll probably follow you on that one. Have a lean on the Chi Sox as I have a different opinion than you on Silva, at least for the time being. Like the Rockies play (Lowry is horrible in Coors) and will probably make the Jays a play of my own (only the second time this year going against my Sox). Just wish I had jumped on it when it was in the -130 range. The only play I'm pretty sure right now that I'll be against you on is the Angels. It's possibly I'm overvaluing them as they've obviously come back down to earth recently, but I don't like the Tribe on the road where they're mediocre at best IMO. Angels, despite their troubles, are still able to pull out wins at home as we saw last night. And although the public has certainly started taking notice of Escobar, I still like the value in that play.

As always, thanks and BOL.

buffettgambler · May 10, 2007

Jibba said:
BOL today BG. Let us know if there's anything we can do to help out with your situation regarding the tout. I'm in Mass, so it likely isn't much help, but I am a lawyer and know how to right a nice nasty letter to scare the shit out of people.

Regarding the games, I absolutely love the O's today and glad to see you on them. Like the Cubbies but wasn't all that interested in paying that chalk. But seeing you on it, I'll probably follow you on that one. Have a lean on the Chi Sox as I have a different opinion than you on Silva, at least for the time being. Like the Rockies play (Lowry is horrible in Coors) and will probably make the Jays a play of my own (only the second time this year going against my Sox). Just wish I had jumped on it when it was in the -130 range. The only play I'm pretty sure right now that I'll be against you on is the Angels. It's possibly I'm overvaluing them as they've obviously come back down to earth recently, but I don't like the Tribe on the road where they're mediocre at best IMO. Angels, despite their troubles, are still able to pull out wins at home as we saw last night. And although the public has certainly started taking notice of Escobar, I still like the value in that play.

As always, thanks and BOL.

Thanks for the offer. Much appreciated. Since he is only stealing the picks and now the write ups there isn't any legal ramifications, just public embarrasement, which he got a dose of a couple of weeks back.

Glad to see you on the Orioles. Keep up the good work as always.

bookieblaster--banned · May 10, 2007

Good luck on your plays and please keep posting. Your writeups are invaluable in handicapping games and I always use them and often follow your plays. I get a service consensus and other service plays thru people and will check for any obvious plagarism. Thanks.

Jibba · May 10, 2007

Yeah, intellectual property cases are tough. While it may not be something that has a great chance in court (although stranger things have happened), a legally threatening letter sometimes goes a long way. Hope you get it squared away as it would be a shame to lose you.

Dr.Swamee · May 10, 2007

Keep it rolling BG and thanks for your hard work.

mhf109b · May 10, 2007

Thanks BG. LOVE Baltimore in this spot.
GL

halekulani · May 10, 2007

playing indians and rockies
good luck

Dr.Swamee · May 10, 2007

Contreras pithes a shut-out. Damn.

deltadog · May 10, 2007

not looking good today...

best of luck

Deltadog

buffettgambler · May 10, 2007

deltadog said:
not looking good today...

best of luck

Deltadog

It's definately going to be my first losing day of the month. The question now is how bad this day is going to get.

OSUCOWBOYS · May 10, 2007

+2.18 Yesterday

+60.26 YTD

He just keeps picking winners.....

4putt · May 10, 2007

Players of America TOUT Service, seem to be using your plays also.

buffettgambler · May 10, 2007

4putt said:
Players of America TOUT Service, seem to be using your plays also.

Thanks for informing me. I can't seem to find their plays though. Can you please tell me where I could find them.

MLB: Thursday May 10th Plays

New member

New member

New member

New member

New member

New member

New member

New member

New member

Banned

New member

New member

New member

New member

New member

New member

New member

New member

New member

New member

Forum statistics

Share this page