About -1 bets & dilemma in tracking

First, I am not currently tracking RX baseball cappers' picks in the Baseball thread (notwithstanding the Tracker forum). I had considered doing this but with the sheer number of cappers posting & how some do not have a discrete unit system (chase, money management, or simply using amounts only), I'm not planning to do this anyway.

Now, I had noticed some recent discussion about how to make a -1 bet, first mentioned by Illini (I believe) that Dsethi has explained to many about how this works with fhmesq44 providing assistance in his spreadsheet. This is a neat idea.

Recently, I realized it just would be helluva for anyone who's tracking in the background. Say somebody decides to make a -1 bet (by betting ML & RL) and the team wins by 4 but the game gets called by rain in the 7th. Obviously, the capper has to adjust the juice to show that only the ML bet did win while the RL was NO ACTION. The W-L record still will be 1-0 (because only ML bet counted).

What about many times where the team indeed would win by 1 run? For record keeping purposes, a -1 bet would be a push (0-0-1 W-L-P record for instance), I understand that... even though 2 separate bets were made, with ML winning and RL losing (with a 1-1 W-L record).

No problems there as I understand the concept even though the record is skewed with no wins and losses in a -1 bet if the team wins by 1. You *did* make those bets after all, with opposing results. They just simply canceled each other out as wagered bets. No big deal for most, but it can be tricky to add up for a season's record where you go 80-60-20 because "you posted -1 bets and 20 of them got pushed over the course of season".

(Dsethi, you know me enough by now that I am not giving you hard time here or even singling you out, grins.)

I thought of another analogy that some will scream "no, bad bad analogy" but here goes:

What's the difference for somebody in the NBA/CBB (or even NFL) forum to decide to make a -3 bets on a favorite at -6 with a -250 ML or whatever? The capper can argue that he feels the favorite wins by more than one possession (a FG for NFL) in that game.

So do we let the capper post a -3 -190 bet? Where's the line? No pun intended. LOL.

Discussion?

* CalvinTy

If you are going to convert a bet to -1.

I dont see what would be wrong by just calling it 1 play.

Say you bet a ml rl combo and in the real world it wins by 1 run. Call it a push.

If the team wins by 2 or more, call it 1-0. If it loses, call it 0-1.

Yeah, Chop, that'd be the simple version, sure.

What's stopping you or me from making a made-up spread in any sport with the spread/ML? And then use it as my bet instead of showing the 2 bets?

I mean, I still see many baseball cappers that would be confident in a ML team that they also have a RL play on it (usually not on an equal betting amount, of course).

Why not we just list the ML and the RL individually anyway?

* CalvinTy

IMO, the bet is a -1 bet and not two separate bets. The only reason we are unable to make one single bet is b/c books don't have it. Had Pinny still be around, most of these plays would have been made there and it would be only one single bet. Why should Canadians record keep differently than Americans?

Thus, I would say grading it as a push in a 3-2 game is accurate. While it is technically two bets, the intent of the play is -1.

It isn't as if the poster posts Cle 1 unit, Cle -1.5 1 unit, which is two different bets.

The only problem for record keeping comes in the rare instance when a game is called early and the -1.5 is cancelled. In that instance I think you have to record keep according to your wallet and break the play out. Anyone following along will show that in their account and it is IMO, disingenuous and erroneous monetary record keeping to show it as entirely a no play (which is what it would be at Pinny, I believe).

CalvinTy said:

Yeah, Chop, that'd be the simple version, sure.

What's stopping you or me from making a made-up spread in any sport with the spread/ML? And then use it as my bet instead of showing the 2 bets?

I mean, I still see many baseball cappers that would be confident in a ML team that they also have a RL play on it (usually not on an equal betting amount, of course).

Why not we just list the ML and the RL individually anyway?

* CalvinTy

Click to expand...

Well if you are not using the formula to convert it to a true -1, you have to call it 2 different bets.

Just because someone put 1 unit on the ml, and 1 unit on the rl does not make it a -1 bet. You have to convert it using the formula thats been posted on this forum many times.

Calvin,

One other note, frankly, the more plays and more record keeping we have, the more of a pain in the ass it is to keep one's record keeping accurate. Trust me on this, I had a miserable time posting accurate detailed records during NHL on the systems. This was the reason I got burned out and have changed my posting for MLB. I am now only posting detailed records for each system once a week and have also adjusted my spreadsheets to aid in that specific post.

I think you go with the poster's intent.

The difference in NFL is that you can buy points, you can't in baseball. In theory a guy could buy his play down to -3. Additionally, in the example you gave, you push with a 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 point win, so what do you really call the line?

FWIW, you can also make -2 lines by combining the -1.5 and -2.5 lines.

fhmesq44 said:

Thus, I would say grading it as a push in a 3-2 game is accurate. While it is technically two bets, the intent of the play is -1.

It isn't as if the poster posts Cle 1 unit, Cle -1.5 1 unit, which is two different bets.

Click to expand...

fhmesq44 said:

I think you go with the poster's intent.

The difference in NFL is that you can buy points, you can't in baseball. In theory a guy could buy his play down to -3. Additionally, in the example you gave, you push with a 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 point win, so what do you really call the line?

Click to expand...

Thanks for the thoughts, fhm. I know that it is the poster's intent to make -1 lines based on available lines for the -1.5 RL & ML. I have no argument there.

I am just a tad concerned that it affects the W-L-P record more (which is besides the point, I fully admit... the units record is the golden record-keeping stat). I think I saw somewhere someone saying that baseball 1-run games happen at a frequency of about 15%-20%? Sounds low but also sounds about right. That'd amount to quite a number of pushes throughout a season.

Imagine if books offered NFL +3/-3 (or cappers create their own, regardless if they can buy points or not) and some cappers decide to use a lot of -3 bets during the NFL season. He/she would have a good number of pushes that messes up his W-L-P record big time, either for the better or worse.

I realize Pinny was da bomb with the various options on a baseball game, but the books made the -1.5 RL (or PL for hockey) so that there would be no pushes, essentially challenging the bettors "to decide whether a team will not only win but cover by more than one run/goal".

Introducing -1 baseball man-made bets just seems to open a Pandora's box in where some would copy the formula and apply it for other sports with larger spread/moneylines. Then, they can say "I pushed because my basketball bet fell on -2 as I made a bet for -2" or "I pushed my football bet because the game ended at -3". That's all.

I guess I don't have any good resistance to this concept, really.

Cheers,

* CalvinTy

I think it is more like 20-25%.

Why would one care what the WLP is? As you said, the units is what really matters and most people know this.

As to the BK and FB bets, the only way you could make your own line would be if you had an instance where the line was say -2.5 and -3.5, then you could make a 3 line. But you can really do it with say -6 and ML b/c as I said, while you can make a bet that pushes with a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 point win by the favorite, you can't just say it is a -3 line. -1, -2, -4 and -5 get you the same result.

The books make the -1.5 and don't have a -1 not b/c they don't want pushes, but b/c they want to kill you with the hook. They tempt you with the big odds knowing that 27% of the time an MLB game ends on 1. It isn't b/c of the number of pushes, it is b/c of the likelihood of loss.

IMO, the BK and FB scenarios just don't work like MLB and in MLB, I don't think it is anything to worry about. a record with a lot of pushes isn't a big deal, that is exactly what your wallet shows, a push.

Sharp post, fhm. In short, a push is a push is a push. I shouldn't worry about how -1 bets are being made because at the end, as we both have said, it's how the poster sees the bottom line in his wallet.

BTW, I realized I finally caught my blooper in my thinking "on -3 bets" until you pointed it out clearly the 2nd time:

b/c as I said, while you can make a bet that pushes with a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 point win by the favorite, you can't just say it is a -3 line. -1, -2, -4 and -5 get you the same result.

Click to expand...

Duh me! So if I make a football or basketball bet using the formula to balance out the ML & -6 favorites... then I'd get a push if the result is ANYWHERE between -1 to -5! Got it now.

Thanks everyone for the comments. I consider this thread closed.

* CalvinTy