Mighty Quinn
Warriors
Benjamin Lee Eckstein
White Sox and Padres
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Fade King
Mlb:
6* Minny -195
6* Cinci +105
4* Pitt - 110
4* Seattle +105
2* Angels -125
2* Baltimore + 150
2* St. Louis + 190
2* Washington + 105
FREEBIES:
DC SPORTS: Two of the top three teams in the National League will square off in the first of a three-game series tonight at Shea Stadium. The visiting Milwaukee Brewers have the league's best mark at 24-10 while the New York Mets check in with the National League's 3rd best record at 21-12. Jeff Suppan will get the ball for the Brewers on Friday. He should bring plenty of confidence into this outing after a couple of brilliant efforts against New York in last season's NLCS. In two starts against the Mets, Suppan allowed only five hits and one earned run in 15 innings of work. He has been outstanding in his first season with the Brewers as Suppan enters tonight with a 2.63 E.R.A in seven starts. Jorge Sosa will get the nod for the Mets. He should also have some confidence after defeating last year's Cy Young award winner, Brandon Webb, in his first start of the season. Sosa allowed only one earned run in 13.2 innings of duty against Milwaukee last season. Despite their overall success, the Brewers are averaging only four runs per game on offense in their 13 road contests this season. New York has been an under club this season with a 21-11-1 mark to the under. Also, both teams have quality bullpens to go with in the late innings. Look for this one to go under the total on Friday. UNDER 9
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Ben Burns
National League Game of the Week
Phillies
Personal Favorite
Toronto BlueJays
Best Bet
Tampa Bay/Toronto Under the Total
MTI Sports
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros May 11 2007 8:05PM
Prediction: Houston Astros
Reason: In Webb’s last outing, the D-Backs mustered only 5 hits and two runs and lost 5-2 to the Mets. Brandon does not respond well to poor run support, as Arizona is 0-6 as a FAVORITE with Webb when they scored three runs or fewer in his last start, averaging minus 138. This performance is not limited to Brandon Webb. As a team, Arizona is an absolutely horrid 0-11 as a FAVORITE when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start.
Arizona is coming off a 9-3 loss at home vs the Phillies and they are not a good investment after they get beaten badly. The Diamondbacks are a bankroll-crushing 7-17 as a FAVORITE after a 5+ run loss. The home dog is the way to go here.
MTi’s FORECAST: HOUSTON 6 Arizona 4
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OTL'S FREE PICK OF THE DAY
111-58-6 the last 175 plays - 67%!
54-34-2 the last 90 plays - 64%!
May 11 - Texas +110 over Anaheim
Northcoast comp play (basketball)
3* under tb/tor kazmir/burnett
Wunderdog
Game: Baltimore at Boston (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Boston -175 (risk 4 to win 2.3)
The Red Sox are clicking in every facet of the game right now. They are hitting and now come home, where they hit even better, and the pitching has not allowed more than three runs in a game over the last six, and the bullpen has been the best in baseball. Fenway Park and the Red Sox in general have been bad news for the Birds. The Sox have taken 18 of the last 21 from the O's overall, and at Fenway have won 10 of the last 11. The Red Sox are outscoring the O's by 81-40 in those 11 games. The O's were able to dominate TB at home, but the road is completely different. The Birds were just 30-51 outside of the confines of Camden Yards last year and have showed no improvement this year as they have struggled to a 5-10 road mark. Red Sox continue their domination of the O's at Fenway.
Game: Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Minnesota -200 (risk 4 to win 2)
There is always value in our eyes when Santana is on the hill at the Metrodome. The Twins have won in 32 of his last 38 starts here, or 84% of the time. Here we are laying a tad less than 2-1 odds on a starter that has proven over his entire career he is worth better than 4-1. Mike Maroth has been pitching to an ERA closing in on 5 for his career and even higher so far this year. Santana has won 10 of 12 decisions against the Tigers over his career or 83.3%, again another 4-1 ratio. Maroth has won just 3 of 12 decisions over the Twins, or 25%, and his ERA is right around his career average. There is no doubt where the value lies in this one and Santana and the Twins get the nod.
Game: St. Louis at San Diego (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on San Diego -200 (risk 4 to win 2)
One of the hottest pitchers in the league squaring off with one of the coldest. Kip Wells is 1-6, and the only consistency he has shown is he has gotten progressively worse from start-to-start. His season has shown earned runs of 0, 3, 4, 7, 7 and 7 in consecutive starts and he has now become bat shy. He walked 5 in his first 3 starts and 10 in his last 3, with more each outing - a sure sign of a pitcher devoid of confidence. He has now pitched to an ERA of 10.71 in his last four starts and the opponents have scored 36 runs in those starts. Jake Peavy is allowing just a .181 batting average against him and his ERA is below 2. The Cards scored nine runs last game, but don't be fooled. Rolen (1-18), Pujols (3-19), Edmonds (4-19), Eckstein (3-13), and Taqachi (2-10) in the last week and combined they have only one extra-base hit and zero HRs. The Cards ! offense has done nothing and when they face quality pitching, even less. They have faced eight starters on the season with an ERA of 3.00 or less on the season and this is what they produced: 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 2, 3 and 2 runs. That is 11 runs in 8 games or 1.38-runs per game! It is hard to conceive a lineup that is struggling to break-out against the league’s top pitcher so far and equally ill-conceived to see a pitcher that has progressively worsened start to start and one that has become bat shy will suddenly respond on the road.
PURE LOCK
MLB
Milwaukee
R&R TOTALS
MLB
Tampa Bay/Toronto OVER
MIKEY SPORTS
MLB
5* Chicago White Sox
ROCKETMAN SPORTS
MLB
3* Seattle +110 (Rasner/Washburn) Listed
Larry Ness' 15* Situational Game of the Week-MLB (now 27-6 since Opening Day!)
My 15* play is on the Cle Indians at 10:05 ET. This is a great spot for the Indians for a number of reasons. The A's have been away from home since May 1 and traveled back from KC last night. Meanwhile, the Indians were already on the west coast, flying up from LA. Cleveland sends ace CC Sabathia to the hill, who has opened 5-0 with a 3.45 ERA in seven starts this year, all Cleveland wins! He's lasted at least six innings in every start and allowed more than three ERs just once. He'll face an Oakland team that's had trouble scoring runs all year (especially at home where the team averages 3.38 runs per game), coming off its biggest output of the season on Thursday. The A's had season-highs in runs (17), hits (18) and HRs (six) in yesterday's clubbing of the pathetic Royals. The A's are just 6-7 at home this year but will be sending a quality pitcher to the mound in Joe Blanton.. Blanton is 3-1, 3.61 in seven starts this year, lasting at least six innings in all but one start and never allowing more than four runs in any game. However, the righty has allowed seven ERs in 12 innings (two starts) against the Indians, for an ERA of 5.25. Cleveland is 17-6 this year against righties, so expect Sabathia to get some support, as he faces a team that may just have "hit itself out" yesterday. Situational Game of the Week 15* Cle Indians.
Larry Ness' Friday Nite Delight-MLB (14-5 run the L/11 days!)
My Friday Nite Delight is on the Pit Pirates at 7:05 ETThe Braves open this weekend series at Pittsburgh at 22-12, giving them a half-game lead over the Mets in the NL East. However, the Braves are just 8-8 this year when facing a left-handed starter and I expect Pittsburgh's Zach Duke to give them trouble tonight. Duke had two brutal back-to-back outings this year against SF and Mil (18 hits and 14 ERs allowed in just six innings) but in his other five starts, he's allowed just nine ERs in 31.2 innings (2.56 ERA). That includes his last three starts in which he's allowed only four ERs in 18.2 innings for a 1.93 ERA. Pittsburgh is just 5-8 at home this year but that's not much of a sample and let's remember this team was 43-38 at home in 2006, going 35-22 vs righties (team was 11-6 in Duke's home starts, as compared to 1-16 on the road!). The Pirates sure have a righty they can hit tonight, in Atlanta's Ken Davies. In 14 starts last year, he was 3-7 with an 8.39 ERA (team was 5-9) and in five starts this year, has a 6.41 ERA. That mark includes a very solid first start but in his last four outings, he's allowed 17 ERs in 20 innings, for a 7.65 ERA. Friday Night Delight on the Pit Pirates
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Rocketman
FREE MLB PLAY FRIDAY (104-73 59% run with freebies)
Kansas City @ Chicago White Sox 8:10 PM EST
Play On: 1* Chicago White Sox -175 (Perez/Garland) Listed
Kansas City is 3-18 this year when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Kansas City is 8-29 last 3 years as a road underdog of +150 to +175. Kansas City is 1-7 this year on the road when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Kansas City is scoring only 3.7 rpg overall, 3.5 rpg on the road and 3.7 rpg against Right handed starters this year. Kansas City bullpen has a 5.57 ERA overall and a 5.16 ERA on the road this season. White Sox bullpen has a 3.83 ERA overall and a 3.79 ERA at home this year. Perez has a 6.75 ERA overall this year and an 8.03 ERA on the road. Garland has a 3.92 ERA overall this year and a 3.27 ERA his last 3 starts. White Sox are 15-4 at home vs Kansas City last 3 years. Perez is 0-3 with a 6.65 ERA vs White Sox since 1997. Garland is 12-5 vs Kansas City since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago White Sox tonight. Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Trev Rogers
11-0 run and 27-10!
San Francisco ML
Arizona/Houston Under 8.5
Florida ML
John Fina MLB Selection for Friday! comp
Selection: Florida Marlins (-130)
Reason: Put us down on the Florida Marlins (-130) for our Free MLB Selection on Friday. Today the Florida Marlins will be on the road as they take on the Washington Nationals. We will side with the Marlins! The Marlins will send to the mound Scott Olsen. Scott Olsen has been pitching great as of late (2.61 ERA in his last 3 starts), and we don't see this poor Nationals offense (scoring an average of only 2.9 runs per game) getting much hits or runs tonight. On the other hand, the Nationals will send to the mound Shawn Hill. Shawn Hill might have a solid (3.00 ERA on the season), however, he always seems to struggles when playing the Marlins. In fact, Shawn Hill has started two games against the Marlins (pitching a total of 11 innings) while giving up 9 runs! We see another poor showing by Shawn Hill tonight. The Marlins have also already proven to be the much superior team. This is shown by the fact that the Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings against the Nationals. The Nationals are 4-10 at home this season, and we expect them to get beat once again tonight! Take the Florida Marlins!