MLB: Friday May 11th Plays

Hoping to rebound off of a horrible day; albeit my first losing day of the month. I may add more plays later.

Braves @ Pirates
Play: Pirates -105
Intrinsic Value: -142
Consider Betting Price: -128
Comment:
I am not sure how Davies warrants being near even money on the road, but that is the case in today’s game while going up against the ace of the Pirates staff. He just isn’t ready for pitching in the big leagues, as he lacks the overpowering stuff to make up for his high walk propensity. He comes into today’s game with a WHIP of 1.69, and has allowed at least four runs in four straight outings. He has also performed much worse on the road throughout his career, as his road ERA is approaching seven after nearly 100 innings of work. He is also a right handed pitcher that struggles more against right handed bats, as they are hitting over .300 lifetime against him. This is not something you want when going up against a lineup that will put six right handed hitters at the plate. Davies solid past numbers against the Pirates were accumulated a couple of years back when he was actually a more effective pitcher. He is not built to go deep into games, and the underbelly of the Braves bullpen has been struggling of late. Although the Pirates have not been hitting well at home this year, they have shown the last three years that they are a more productive hitting team in their own backyard.

Davies is not the only young pitcher in this game that has been struggling so far year to date, as this has been a poor season thus far for Duke as well. However, Duke has the talent and has proven already that he is a much more effective pitcher than his current season numbers would indicate. Duke has already put forth three solid starts in a row and appears to be getting things back on track. He has been more effective at home and during night games throughout his career, and has put forth solid starts against the Braves in past years. Despite his sub par numbers year to date, he still forces teams to put multiple hits per inning to produce runs, as he has allowed just three home runs all year. the Jones’s come into today’s game a combined 0 for 13 against him. Although the Braves have won their last three games, it has been a product of solid pitching, as their bats have cooled down a bit of late.

Devil Rays @ Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -127
Intrinsic Value: -178
Consider Betting Price: -156
Comment:
I got burned on the Blue Jays last night, and there is no denying how horrible they have been playing of late, but I have no problem continuing to back them when the odds more than reflect their current struggles. Not being factored into the line is the notion that the Devil Rays have been struggling of late as well, losing five of their last six, and are a team more dependent on momentum. I am a fan of Kazmir’s and feel that he has is harder to hit and has better stuff than Shields. However, Shields is more valuable to the Devil Rays right now because of having the ability to pitch to contact, something that Kazmir is unable to do. Being a strikeout pitcher, Kazmir is forced to accumulate high pitch counts early in games even when he is pitching well. It is hard for him to go deeper than six innings, which is not something you want when backed by the Devil Rays bullpen. Although the Blue Jays bats have been struggling of late, they should completely overmatch the Drays pen. Kazmir is also a much less effective pitcher on the road, and has put forth very mediocre road numbers throughout his career. The Blue Jays are one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball against southpaws and at home. Homefield advantage is magnified in this game, as both lineups have produced some of the highest disparities of productivity at home vs. away the last three years.

Burnett has generated some sub par numbers so far year to date, but they may be a bit misleading, as they have been inflated by two really bad outings. He has actually looked pretty good on the mound, but has been victimized by a lot of tough challenges, having to face a series of tough lineups, and having to pitch five of his first seven starts on the road. He is more effective at home, and this appears to be a good spot for him to put forth a solid outing, as he faces a team that he has had past success against. He matches up best against free swinging lineups that are willing to go out of the strike zone, which is actually what he is up against in today’s game. He comes into today’s game with a lifetime ERA in the mid 2’s against the Drays, and a WHIP of .88. He is also backed by the better bullpen compared to his counterparts. The Devil Rays lineup has cooled off, scoring three of less runs in five of their last six games.

Cubs @ Phillies
Play: Phillies -112
Intrinsic Value: -125
Consider Betting Price: -112
Comment:
This is a really interesting match up as you have two very solid young southpaws on the mound against two potent lineups. However, although Hill has the better numbers so far this year, Hamels is currently the better pitcher and has a better chance of putting forth a solid outing. There is no denying Hill’s dominance so far year to date. He has put forth solid outings in every start but one. He has proven to still be effective on the road this year. However, I still hold my reservations of how effective he will be on the road against power lineups inside hitter friendly confines, as in past years he has been known to struggling in his road outings, and was prone to the long ball. He also matches up better against free swinging lineups willing to chase his curveball that rarely stays in the zone. The Phillies have displayed one of the most patient lineups in the game. Hill is also a southpaw that could be stolen off of, something in which the Phillies could capitalize on. He has also been harder to hit for right handed hitters so far in his young career, which does not give the Phillies left handed loaded lineup as much of a disadvantage in this game.

The Cubs lineup is currently on a downward trend, a deficiency that a pitcher like Hamels can capitalize on. He has one of the best change ups in the game, which is a huge asset going up against a lineup that has struggled hitting the off speed pitch all year. He has always been much more effective during night games throughout his career, while the Cubs have struggled hitting southpaws this year, including being unable to get to a mediocre one in yesterdays game. Their starters have just five home runs against lefties this year as well, which is not a deficiency you want when playing in a park that gives away home runs. Hamels is backed by a bullpen that has pitched well this year.

Royals @ White Sox
Play: White Sox -170
Intrinsic Value: -245
Consider Betting Price: -220
Comment:
With each start that Perez makes, he is showing more and more evidence that his career as a pitcher may be coming to an end. He is just far too hittable to be a big league pitcher, as opponents are hitting .350 against him. He has also been a pitcher much less effective throughout his career on the road, and this year is no different as he comes into today’s game with an eight plus road ERA this year. He has just one quality start this season, and was dominated by the White Sox last year. He is not built to go deep into games, and is backed by the worst bullpen in baseball that had to eat up a lot of innings yesterday and was thoroughly dominated by the worst lineup in the AL. This appears to be an ideal spot for a struggling White Sox lineup to get things back on track. They have also always been a much more dangerous lineup at home.

The Royals are a rare public fade team that has consistently been overvalued on their road games this year. Today is no different. Their lineup has been dormant this month, and dormant all year on the road. Today is appears to be an opportunity for them to continue to stay dormant, as they are up against a pitcher four quality starts in his last five tries, and has shown outstanding command of late, which should force a struggling lineup to get hits in order to get runners on base. Although he has struggled at home this year, this trend lacks sustainability, as he put forth two solid years at home as a White Sox. He is backed by a better bullpen than his counterparts, which should give the White Sox a decisive pitching advantage throughout this game.

BOL BG. Against you with Atlanta and TB, but like the other two plays. Regarding Pitt, how is it you consider Duke the ace of that staff? I really haven't seen anything to impress me from him since 2005. Davies isn't a good pitcher, but in a matchup between 2 guys like this, either of whom could get bombed on any given day, I like the better offense. Regarding the Jays, I've just been amazed at how badly they've played the past few days. Lots of reasons to take Burnett and Toronto hear, but when teams are playing that bad, they seem to find a way to lose, as they did last night (their first inning was flat out ugly). Always appreciate your opinion though. BOL and thanks for posting.

i agree jibba. im a pirates fan and have family up there (though not from there myself). the scoop seems to be, and i agree, that coming into the season snell and gorzelanny are much better pitchers than duke. i do like duke tonight though. im staying away from the bjays game. thanks for the writeups buffett

Jibba said:

BOL BG. Against you with Atlanta and TB, but like the other two plays. Regarding Pitt, how is it you consider Duke the ace of that staff? I really haven't seen anything to impress me from him since 2005. Davies isn't a good pitcher, but in a matchup between 2 guys like this, either of whom could get bombed on any given day, I like the better offense. Regarding the Jays, I've just been amazed at how badly they've played the past few days. Lots of reasons to take Burnett and Toronto hear, but when teams are playing that bad, they seem to find a way to lose, as they did last night (their first inning was flat out ugly). Always appreciate your opinion though. BOL and thanks for posting.

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Duke started off last year in the same fashion that he did this year. However, the second half of last year he was very solid (3.65 ERA), and one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball in September. Those types of seasons are perfect learning tools for young pitchers. This coupled with 05 leads me to believe his first month struggles are temperary.

That first inning of the Blue Jays game as horrible. I turned it off after that, as slumping teams don't rebound from such innings. The Holliday pick off error against a non-base stealing threat that was not running was bad, but the bottom half of the innings was disgusting. You a selfish hitter in Thomas, swinging for the fences on a two strike count, with the bases drunk and one out against a knuckleball pitcher. All he needed to do is tie up the game with your ace on the mound. Instead his feet leave the air with his swing. That was not bad enough, but Glauss, one of the slowest players in the game, gets picked off of first by the catcher on the strike three pitch ( with a man on second). Where was he going?

I wonder who their new manager will be.

finman13 said:

i agree jibba. im a pirates fan and have family up there (though not from there myself). the scoop seems to be, and i agree, that coming into the season snell and gorzelanny are much better pitchers than duke. i do like duke tonight though. im staying away from the bjays game. thanks for the writeups buffett

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I agree. Both are better pitchers. But aces and better pitchers are different entities.

buffettgambler said:

Duke started off last year in the same fashion that he did this year. However, the second half of last year he was very solid (3.65 ERA), and one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball in September. Those types of seasons are perfect learning tools for young pitchers. This coupled with 05 leads me to believe his first month struggles are temperary.

That first inning of the Blue Jays game as horrible. I turned it off after that, as slumping teams don't rebound from such innings. The Holliday pick off error against a non-base stealing threat that was not running was bad, but the bottom half of the innings was disgusting. You a selfish hitter in Thomas, swinging for the fences on a two strike count, with the bases drunk and one out against a knuckleball pitcher. All he needed to do is tie up the game with your ace on the mound. Instead his feet leave the air with his swing. That was not bad enough, but Glauss, one of the slowest players in the game, gets picked off of first by the catcher on the strike three pitch ( with a man on second). Where was he going?

I wonder who their new manager will be.

Click to expand...

Good points about Duke, but he's just not a guy I can back right now. Thanks for the further explanation though. Always great to see what angels you're looking at in a game.

As for Toronto, couldn't have said it myself. And I had to laugh at "bases drunk." I feel like I've been living under a rock or something for this, but I've never heard that saying before. Anyway, like you kind of said though, slumping teams find a way to lose. And I don't ever recall seeing Toronto play this poorly, especially for such a long period. I'm just hoping that Tampa isn't the slumping team that finds a way to lose tonight. BOL.

As for new managers, I was wondering who the Dodgers would hire. Did you see that ninth inning yesterday? 2nd and 3rd, 1 out, and the cleanup hitter coming to the plate. Lowe was left in too long (he may have had some stuff left, but at very least he shouldn't have been pitching to Willingham. For a Boston fan, that one was just too eerily familiar. Grady . . .

buffettgambler said:

Duke started off last year in the same fashion that he did this year. However, the second half of last year he was very solid (3.65 ERA), and one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball in September. Those types of seasons are perfect learning tools for young pitchers. This coupled with 05 leads me to believe his first month struggles are temperary.

That first inning of the Blue Jays game as horrible. I turned it off after that, as slumping teams don't rebound from such innings. The Holliday pick off error against a non-base stealing threat that was not running was bad, but the bottom half of the innings was disgusting. You a selfish hitter in Thomas, swinging for the fences on a two strike count, with the bases drunk and one out against a knuckleball pitcher. All he needed to do is tie up the game with your ace on the mound. Instead his feet leave the air with his swing. That was not bad enough, but Glauss, one of the slowest players in the game, gets picked off of first by the catcher on the strike three pitch ( with a man on second). Where was he going?

I wonder who their new manager will be.

Click to expand...

bg,good observation,ive watched a lot of basball games,and that was about as bad as i have seen,why did halladay throw to second? did the manager call that? what was glaus thinkin? as for thomas,when all he had to do was make contact,,his ass would be on the bench,when you continue to beat yourself,the way toronto did last night,its obvious that they have lost focus,they look like they are scared,indecisive,they need a change yesterday.'keep the continue'

-3.39 Yesterday

+56.87 YTD

The last time Buffettgambler had a losing day like this he went on a 32-6 run immediately there after. Move over non-believers!!!

Side note: BG, I have been your biggest supporter and fan from DAY ONE. I know it has to be frustrating for others to be making money off of your work. I hope you continue to post (purely selfish reasons) but if you chose not too it would be completely understandable.

Travis

But if he quits posting my suicide will be a heavy burden to carry. j/k:lol:

very funny killerb. im tailing him on all the plays tonight. too ill to handicapp myself today. was hoping he would be on the indians. im also on the warriors -6 this evening. any other plays getting close buffett?

do you see any value in detroit +180?

Thanks guys.

Jibba,
I saw that. They had a meeting on the mound prior to that at bat. I think Little wanted Lowe to pitch around him and not throw him a strike, hoping he may chase out of the zone and strike out. If he ended up not chasing, it would be a managable walk. Lowe just left one over the plate.

Finman,
Seems like Nelson can't push Sloan around like he was able to toy with Johnson. I feel the Indians, Tigers and Reds are a bit undervalued, but don't think any will hit my target.

buckeye,
The Tigers are undervalued, especially with the way the Twins have been hitting at the plate. I value them +168 but require a 30 basis point margin of safey because Maroth just doesnt seem right. I think the Tigers will be a matchup problem for the Twins this series.


Good luck.

BG, I had an 0 for 5 (betting, not at the plate) a few days ago, so I've recently experienced the "horrible day" thing. Hang in there, hopefully you get right back on track tonight.

Love the write-ups, and I'm always glad to see it when we have plays in common. Tonight it's Pit and Toronto. Best of luck.

Another winning night.........great handicapping Buff. Bounced right back.