93-81, +30.31
2-3, -5.65
Two straight losing days dropped me out of the 40 unit range, and into the low 30's. Marching back to 40 today.
3* Chicago Cubs +108
1* Chicago Cubs -1.5 +160
Really like this play as this is baseball at it's most fundamental level.
General
Two of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball go at it as Rich Hill visits Cole Hamels. Although Philly has had past success head to head vs. Chicago, this is a good spot for the Cubs. The Cubs are playing good baseball overall right now and are 9-3 in their past 12 games, while Philly is 4-6 last 10. Philly is just 2-8 last 10 when returning home after a road trip of 7+ days.
Road and SNB Letdown
After playing on a long road trip, the hot Cubs await the Phillies here and we get a +money value on the Cubs after the Phillies Cole Hamels performed admirably on Sunday Night Baseball. Perhaps a potential mental letdown start as the stage for Hamels wont be as big in this start as it was in his last start, but the lineup will be much tougher.
Howard Questionable
Ryan Howard's status remains in question for this game, but I feel that he will play. Either way it doesnt matter as Howard has had major troubles in his career hitting left handed pitching, particularly those with a good breaking ball. It is easy to see why Howard is 0-3 so far in his career vs. Rich Hill.
Rich Hill vs. Cole Hamels
I've already let it be known this year that I am a big fan of what Rich Hill can do on the mound, and I would take him everyday of the week and twice on Sunday over Cole Hamels, especially when Hill's curveball is working. And that is the clear and major difference in this game today: A Curveball pitcher vs. a Changeup pitcher in a park conducive to homeruns.
Curve vs. Change
It's baseball 101, and you do not want to pitch changeup pitchers in a matchbox because changeup pitchers typically rely on flyball outs. The whole idea of the changeup is to fool the hitter into thinking fastball, get him on his front foot and slow his bat speed down. Hitter's natural reaction upon seeing a fat changeup is to lift it. And in a park that allows homeruns, dont be surprised to see some of these power hitters in the Cubs lineup lift some changeups out of the yard today. Meanwhile Rich Hill's breaking ball gets sharp bite, and he will have the Phillies lineup swinging over the top of it, keeping the ball on the ground in a homerun park is very important.
Stats
With that in mind, it is no surprise that in Hamels' first year as a full time starter this season, he has allowed more runs and higher batting average at home than he does on the road. That doesn't match up well with a Cubs team that actually swings it better on the road and slugs a higher percentage vs. lefties than Philly does overall. Cubs are batting .286 vs. lefties in their past 10 games, compared to Philly's .276 indicates to me that the Cubs are starting to come around vs. LHP's.
Cubs Lineup vs. Hamels
In reality, the Cubs fare well vs. pitchers with straight stuff. You can get the Cubs to swing and miss at breaking balls, but when you keep it straight for them (i.e. fastball.changeup), the Cubs fare very well. When you have guys like Soriano and Lee in your lineup, those are two guys with wicked batspeed and power, and they are outstanding hands hitters that can stay back and adjust to offspeed and hit homeruns off their front foot using all hands. This is supported by examining the stats of the Cubs in their last start game vs. Hamels back in August in which they absolutely slaughtered Hamels to the tune of 2 IP, 9 RUNS, 5 ER, 9 HITS, and a .563 average.
Both of these teams struggle vs. left-handed pitching, and even if both guys perform well, this game could very well come down to bullpen, and I will take the Cubs bullpen over the Phillies anyday. I'd probably take most bullpens over Philly actually.
Bullpen
Cubs pen has a 3.13 ERA on the season and 2.61 the last 3 days, while the Phillies pen has an abysmal 4.83 overall and 6.38 the past 3 games.
2-3, -5.65
Two straight losing days dropped me out of the 40 unit range, and into the low 30's. Marching back to 40 today.
3* Chicago Cubs +108
1* Chicago Cubs -1.5 +160
Really like this play as this is baseball at it's most fundamental level.
General
Two of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball go at it as Rich Hill visits Cole Hamels. Although Philly has had past success head to head vs. Chicago, this is a good spot for the Cubs. The Cubs are playing good baseball overall right now and are 9-3 in their past 12 games, while Philly is 4-6 last 10. Philly is just 2-8 last 10 when returning home after a road trip of 7+ days.
Road and SNB Letdown
After playing on a long road trip, the hot Cubs await the Phillies here and we get a +money value on the Cubs after the Phillies Cole Hamels performed admirably on Sunday Night Baseball. Perhaps a potential mental letdown start as the stage for Hamels wont be as big in this start as it was in his last start, but the lineup will be much tougher.
Howard Questionable
Ryan Howard's status remains in question for this game, but I feel that he will play. Either way it doesnt matter as Howard has had major troubles in his career hitting left handed pitching, particularly those with a good breaking ball. It is easy to see why Howard is 0-3 so far in his career vs. Rich Hill.
Rich Hill vs. Cole Hamels
I've already let it be known this year that I am a big fan of what Rich Hill can do on the mound, and I would take him everyday of the week and twice on Sunday over Cole Hamels, especially when Hill's curveball is working. And that is the clear and major difference in this game today: A Curveball pitcher vs. a Changeup pitcher in a park conducive to homeruns.
Curve vs. Change
It's baseball 101, and you do not want to pitch changeup pitchers in a matchbox because changeup pitchers typically rely on flyball outs. The whole idea of the changeup is to fool the hitter into thinking fastball, get him on his front foot and slow his bat speed down. Hitter's natural reaction upon seeing a fat changeup is to lift it. And in a park that allows homeruns, dont be surprised to see some of these power hitters in the Cubs lineup lift some changeups out of the yard today. Meanwhile Rich Hill's breaking ball gets sharp bite, and he will have the Phillies lineup swinging over the top of it, keeping the ball on the ground in a homerun park is very important.
Stats
With that in mind, it is no surprise that in Hamels' first year as a full time starter this season, he has allowed more runs and higher batting average at home than he does on the road. That doesn't match up well with a Cubs team that actually swings it better on the road and slugs a higher percentage vs. lefties than Philly does overall. Cubs are batting .286 vs. lefties in their past 10 games, compared to Philly's .276 indicates to me that the Cubs are starting to come around vs. LHP's.
Cubs Lineup vs. Hamels
In reality, the Cubs fare well vs. pitchers with straight stuff. You can get the Cubs to swing and miss at breaking balls, but when you keep it straight for them (i.e. fastball.changeup), the Cubs fare very well. When you have guys like Soriano and Lee in your lineup, those are two guys with wicked batspeed and power, and they are outstanding hands hitters that can stay back and adjust to offspeed and hit homeruns off their front foot using all hands. This is supported by examining the stats of the Cubs in their last start game vs. Hamels back in August in which they absolutely slaughtered Hamels to the tune of 2 IP, 9 RUNS, 5 ER, 9 HITS, and a .563 average.
Both of these teams struggle vs. left-handed pitching, and even if both guys perform well, this game could very well come down to bullpen, and I will take the Cubs bullpen over the Phillies anyday. I'd probably take most bullpens over Philly actually.
Bullpen
Cubs pen has a 3.13 ERA on the season and 2.61 the last 3 days, while the Phillies pen has an abysmal 4.83 overall and 6.38 the past 3 games.
