ATP Picks 5-11-07 (69-58-2) +$261

Search

ATP

New member
Joined
Apr 16, 2007
Messages
5,713
Tokens
Cant seem to get off the ground lately, at least were still in the + lets work with these:

1. CHW -1.5 EVEN

I went against Garland in his last start at the hot angels in Anaheim and he was lights out, coming home to pitch against KC, cant get much easier than that. Garland is only 1-2 but should be better given his 3.9 ERA, its just been a matter of the offense scoring runs for him, they should tonight against Odalis Perez one of the worst pitchers in the league at 2-3 with a 6+ ERA. Garlands last three starts vs this team have been spot on going 7, 7 and 6 innings in each allowing 1 ER in all three appearances. While Perez hasnt been terrible vs the sox he hasnt been good enough for the team to win yet and he appears to be able to give up 4 or 5 runs by himself and that 17-3 pasting by Oakland yesterday had to have burned the bullpen. Ill look for the chisox to score in bunches tonight. They are 17-4 over their last 21 vs KC. GO SOX

200/200


2. Florida -112

Granted I will admit the Nationals dont have much to hang their hats on this year, but Shawn Hill has been good and it wouldnt be a total surprise if he pitched well here, but everything else leans towards the fish here. The marlins are the 2nd highest scoring team in the league at 5.2 runs per game while the Nats are last at 2.9 runs. Over the games between these teams this year it has been very evident who the far superior team is with the fish winning 4 of 6 with two losses by one run with one of those coming with jorge julios meltdown in the wins they have won 6,6,6, and 7. Olsens ERA is inflated at nearly 5 because when he is bad he is really bad, this isnt a team that should give him much trouble. I will point out that these two teams have played 8 straight overs for what thats worth. The nats have only won one of their last 10 games and are only 3-7 vs lefties. Even with Hill on the mound I dont see unless he goes 8 strong that they can win this game.

168/150


 

ATP

New member
Joined
Apr 16, 2007
Messages
5,713
Tokens
3. BOS/BALT OVER 11 -125

I know the total is high and it is getting pounded at the windows but it looks like the play even though these two have played 5 straight unders based on how the teams are playing and the pitching matchup. Personally I think that Tavarez is bostons weakest pitcher going up against a team that for the most part save a few games has been blistering the baseball. A rookie lefty goes for Baltimore, boston is 6-2 vs lefties and this kid in his one start vs cleveland got lit up by young guys imagine what allstars might do to him at Fenway. Boston is not just winning games, they are winning on the road and by lots, scoring 8,9, and 9 runs in the toronto series including lighting up Halladay for his worst home start of his career. Boston might score a TD and FG in this one. Boston is the highest scoring team in the league and they score even more runs at home.

125/100
 

ATP

New member
Joined
Apr 16, 2007
Messages
5,713
Tokens
4. METS -125

There are a lot of positives for taking the brewers but I think this is a spot to take the Mets, While Suppan has been good careerwise vs these mets he hasnt really seen this potent offense and while he has been stupendous this season, I look at his last three starts: Pitt, St louis, and CHC, the cubs were not hitting well, pitt isnt the best offensive team and the cards have been non-existant. The brewcrew has the best record in baseball but while 16-5 at home they have only played 13 games on the road at 8-5, time for the record to come back down against the Mets who come off a successful roadtrip and look like they are poised to go on a big run. Sosa was bad in atlanta last season but the mets seemed to have fixed the problems as he went 6 solid in his debut with the mets as a starter, Ill look for the mets to win this.

125/100
 

ATP

New member
Joined
Apr 16, 2007
Messages
5,713
Tokens
5. Angels/Rangers OVER 9 EVEN

Lackey has been solid this year but there is always a rough patch somewhere and he hasnt pitched well in Texas before. He threw really well this season vs a slumping texas team, but both teams come into this game lighting up the board, texas with 14 on getaway day at yankee stadium and the halos blanked clevleand 8-0. Padilla has nearly a 5 ERA at 1-4 and he always gives up runs to the angels 2 of the last three have been 6 ER games going 4 or less innings. The total has gone over in 13 of the last 19 games in texas between these teams, Gotta respect Lackey thats why I wont take Texas to win but he will give up runs to this team that is gaining confidence and the line is not all that bad.

100/100
 

ATP

New member
Joined
Apr 16, 2007
Messages
5,713
Tokens
Hard to believe it took me this long to find the one that I like the most tonight, it absolutly sticks out on the page. Biggest play of the day:

6. CLEV/OAK OVER 8 -120

Granted Oakland is 9-23-1 against the over and that explosion that they had yesterday was against a weak KC bullpen but everything else in this matchup just adds up to runs. 8 seems way too low even with Sabathia at 5-0 with a 3.4 ERA he hasnt been lights out and everytime he pitches the tribe shows up with run support, scoring 9,12, and 8 over his last three starts to no surprise all three games went over the total. 5 of the last 7 games in oakland between these two has gone over and 7 of the last 1 between the two overall. The tribe averages over 5 runs per game on the road and they get blanton tonight who met up with them last year went 5 innings and gave up 6ER. The tribe got shutdown last night so expect them to come out swining tonight and oakland is off such a high right now that some of it should carry over tonight against sabathia who has had trouble vs this squad on several occasions, over 24 innings he has given up 19 runs and he has lost his last three vs the tribe, while blanton has lost his only two starts. Oakland unlike a lot of teams has a 7-5 above .500 record vs lefties, love this over.

360/300:103631605 :103631605 :103631605
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,108,589
Messages
13,452,656
Members
99,423
Latest member
lbplayer
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com