handful of strong mlb games for sunday ....

normally its one, maybe two, plays max for me in baseball. but for whatever reason this sunday card really jumps off the page at me.

played the under 9 in the detroit game very strong. one of the stronger totals ive played all season actually. i should add the caveat that, although im a primarily under player, i never like to step out and get too crazy with an under (or a total for that matter) because even capping it dead on doesnt always ensure a winning ticket.

ive been keeping an eye on this vazquez kid while he was pitching for the mud hens. ive caught a few toledo games in person and it always seemed like he was on the hill the days i was in attendance. im not sure where he ranks in terms of the tigers overall prospects but i do know this: he is very composed on the mound, he throws strikes, and he keeps runners off base. he's got a 5/1 K/BB ratio this year and his last 3 starts in toledo have been excellent (20 innings, 5 runs, 22 strikeouts, 4 walks). i think he'll have good success against a twins lineup that is pretty weak to begin with and is now without morneau. i think runs will be at a premium this game. im not sure where this total will go overnight. maybe bettors will see a rookie on the mound for detroit and take this total to 9 over (-120) or (-125) and ill cost myself some juice. but i have no problem at all playing this strong overnight at 9 flat. my bet is down now. i like vazquez and i think he'll pitch well.

going to take a small shot on baltimore (+1.5) (+110). beckett is one of my favorite pitchers to bet, but he's starting to get really overpriced. the orioles can swing the bats and i think they'll hang in this game. the key is guthrie. im kind of stating the obvious here. he has to give them good innings. i was really surprised the indians cut this kid loose. he hasn't exactly lived up to all his hype as a high draft pick out of stanford but he has a live fastball and he seems to be fitting in with baltimore a little better than he did with cleveland. confidence is a crazy thing. he didnt have it with the tribe. maybe he can jumpstart his career with the birds.

two more plays on the way but want to submit this now before i run the risk of the session timing out and all the text being wiped away ... and then being livid.

playing the mets at (-110)
capuano has been nails, but oliver perez is finally starting to show signs of returning to the dominant form he had with the pirates before he dropped off the map. heading into his last start against frisco, he had 28 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last 3 starts. if you take a cursory glance at his box score from last game, it'll look like he got rocked. 4.2 innings and 8 runs. but he was cruising along before running into some bad luck in the 5th inning against the giants. two straight errors by the guys behind him allowed the floodgates to open and the giants to put up a 9 run inning (7 coming after 2 were out and nobody was on). obviously youd like to see perez show a little more composure and fight through some bad fielding. but the mets should have been out of that inning long, long before it got out of control. if im new york, im very encouraged by the way hes throwing the baseball. ill absolutely take a piece of the mets at -110 with the way perez has been pitching lately.

What about taking the TIgers ML.

playing cleveland (-110) as well
lee has been outstanding against oakland in his career. he's also coming off a great start in anaheim 5 days ago. oakland traditionally loses a lot of pop when they face lefties. and im not quite buying gaudin as viable long term starter for the athletics. then again, both he and braden looper are defying the odds when it comes to relievers-turned-starters. but i just think the a's should be +130 or so underdogs here. i dont think this is a pick game. along with the detroit under and the new york moneyline, this is the 3rd of a group of strong plays. the runline with guthrie is a bit smaller.


sonny:
fair question. youd think if i like the under and am confident in backing vazquez that id lean to detroit on the moneyline ... and i certainly do. but i just think the under is a little better play. and since im not one to bet the side/total within the same game, especially with baseball, i had to decide what i felt was the stronger play. and i tend to think its the under. i do think detroit wins this game but i have some respect for bonser despite his modest numbers. i think this could be a 4-3 kind of game.

Just so you know, Morneau is expected to be in the lineup tomorrow.

spreadbeater said:

Just so you know, Morneau is expected to be in the lineup tomorrow.

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thanks. i actually submitted the play under the impression that he was going to play. then was hearing he was unlikely to be in the lineup. figured that was simply gravy to a bet already made. still think im in good shape but appreciate the heads up regardless.

I love the Mets tomorrow Prodigy and I like your write up on the game.... Lets cash that bitch!

played tampa (+135)
naturally, lost the mini-write up when internet explorer went haywire.
fu.ck. thank god it was just one game.

Prodigy, I know you work hard and really appreciate your efforts in helping everyone. I love to play but just don't seem to have all of the time it takes to cap games good enough to give myself a chance, so I check in here to see what's going on. Just wanted you to know you're appreciated.

BBB:modemman:

Cant you cut and paste from Word? would make life easier. Thanks for the write-ups, you've convinced me, GL

prodigy said:

played tampa (+135)
naturally, lost the mini-write up when internet explorer went haywire.
fu.ck. thank god it was just one game.

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The real question is why do you still use IE? I highly recommend switching over to Mozilla Firefox, it is much much better than IE

GLTY

NICE WRITE UPS..SEE SOME USING YOUR WRITE UP FOR BACKING THEIR PLAYS

GL:toast:

:money8: METS WINNER

THANKS:money8:

the game2005 said:

:money8: METS WINNER

THANKS:money8:

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no problem bro... I will continue to fade the Brewers the next couple weeks

Prod, can you post your plays daily. You are on fire, thax.

had a chance to be a really, really good day.

instead, took a 3-0 day and turned it into a 3-2 day after the indians bullpen implodes in the 9th inning. then an absolute mis-cap on the tigers total. really expected a much better effort from vazquez. he looked nothing like the pitcher ive seen over the last month or so. just goes to show that even playing from a quality AAA team means nothing once you make the jump to the show. he'll land on his feet and make his way back to detroit but a horrible outing to say the least. didnt even make any money on the 3-2 day because of the nightcap. sorry if anyone followed.

Dsethi said:

u should be sorry asshole i took that under cause of you and fucnluc. dickhead

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lol. thanks for the levity. for real though, sorry you lost a few bucks. it was truly one of those games where nothing goes according to plan. vazquez shit all over himself. and im incredibly surprised by that considering composure is one of his biggest strengths. i owe ya one man.
truthfully, the entire mlb day for me from 5pm on was wacky. im thankful i grabbed the runline with baltimore otherwise i woulda been cracking skulls after that sick collapse by baez and ray. then the tribe collapse. and then the straight up mis-cap on the detroit game. day had a shitload of promise. turned mediocre in a hurry. sorry for the tigers miscap. again, i owe you (and everyone else) one.