normally its one, maybe two, plays max for me in baseball. but for whatever reason this sunday card really jumps off the page at me.
played the under 9 in the detroit game very strong. one of the stronger totals ive played all season actually. i should add the caveat that, although im a primarily under player, i never like to step out and get too crazy with an under (or a total for that matter) because even capping it dead on doesnt always ensure a winning ticket.
ive been keeping an eye on this vazquez kid while he was pitching for the mud hens. ive caught a few toledo games in person and it always seemed like he was on the hill the days i was in attendance. im not sure where he ranks in terms of the tigers overall prospects but i do know this: he is very composed on the mound, he throws strikes, and he keeps runners off base. he's got a 5/1 K/BB ratio this year and his last 3 starts in toledo have been excellent (20 innings, 5 runs, 22 strikeouts, 4 walks). i think he'll have good success against a twins lineup that is pretty weak to begin with and is now without morneau. i think runs will be at a premium this game. im not sure where this total will go overnight. maybe bettors will see a rookie on the mound for detroit and take this total to 9 over (-120) or (-125) and ill cost myself some juice. but i have no problem at all playing this strong overnight at 9 flat. my bet is down now. i like vazquez and i think he'll pitch well.
going to take a small shot on baltimore (+1.5) (+110). beckett is one of my favorite pitchers to bet, but he's starting to get really overpriced. the orioles can swing the bats and i think they'll hang in this game. the key is guthrie. im kind of stating the obvious here. he has to give them good innings. i was really surprised the indians cut this kid loose. he hasn't exactly lived up to all his hype as a high draft pick out of stanford but he has a live fastball and he seems to be fitting in with baltimore a little better than he did with cleveland. confidence is a crazy thing. he didnt have it with the tribe. maybe he can jumpstart his career with the birds.
two more plays on the way but want to submit this now before i run the risk of the session timing out and all the text being wiped away ... and then being livid.
played the under 9 in the detroit game very strong. one of the stronger totals ive played all season actually. i should add the caveat that, although im a primarily under player, i never like to step out and get too crazy with an under (or a total for that matter) because even capping it dead on doesnt always ensure a winning ticket.
ive been keeping an eye on this vazquez kid while he was pitching for the mud hens. ive caught a few toledo games in person and it always seemed like he was on the hill the days i was in attendance. im not sure where he ranks in terms of the tigers overall prospects but i do know this: he is very composed on the mound, he throws strikes, and he keeps runners off base. he's got a 5/1 K/BB ratio this year and his last 3 starts in toledo have been excellent (20 innings, 5 runs, 22 strikeouts, 4 walks). i think he'll have good success against a twins lineup that is pretty weak to begin with and is now without morneau. i think runs will be at a premium this game. im not sure where this total will go overnight. maybe bettors will see a rookie on the mound for detroit and take this total to 9 over (-120) or (-125) and ill cost myself some juice. but i have no problem at all playing this strong overnight at 9 flat. my bet is down now. i like vazquez and i think he'll pitch well.
going to take a small shot on baltimore (+1.5) (+110). beckett is one of my favorite pitchers to bet, but he's starting to get really overpriced. the orioles can swing the bats and i think they'll hang in this game. the key is guthrie. im kind of stating the obvious here. he has to give them good innings. i was really surprised the indians cut this kid loose. he hasn't exactly lived up to all his hype as a high draft pick out of stanford but he has a live fastball and he seems to be fitting in with baltimore a little better than he did with cleveland. confidence is a crazy thing. he didnt have it with the tribe. maybe he can jumpstart his career with the birds.
two more plays on the way but want to submit this now before i run the risk of the session timing out and all the text being wiped away ... and then being livid.