OK. First, this is what I do. You don't have to do it. Let's get that OUTTA THE WAY. That being said, I hope this helps you. I've been working on it for a while now. Hesitant to post it, but contribution is what DRIVES this site.
So, try it out and see how it helps you. I'll detail step-by-step. I won several parlays yesterday with this (I'll show you the last three,too).
It flushed out these teams yesterday:
MILW
HOU
COL
LAD
CLEV
STL
Here's what I do =
1. Print out the OVERNIGHT line first on all games.
2. Then, go to Covers.com or any site and find the OPENING line for all games. (It will be different than the overnight line)
3. Write the opening line beside the overnight line (this will show you some money movement immediately).
4. Find the current line at your service (bodog, sb.com, whoever) write it down in line next to opening line.
5. Track the line movement whenever you can after that, up until game time and draw a BOX around any change (all these numbers will be in a row, with a box around any change). You are looking for movement.
6. Beside each pitcher, write in W-L so you can see it easily.
7. THEN! under matchups, add the IP overall with IP last three for each pitcher. Should give you a number, write it down beside each pitcher.
8. Then, write down each pitchers ERA = write down OVERALL ERA & last three game ERA. It should go up or down, that is what you are looking for.
9. Now, look for the line movement as compared to the OVERNIGHT line, then compare to the OPENING line. You are looking for CONSECUTIVE motion, several BOXES. This happens, and is most important in the MIDDLE of your row. You are looking for consistency in support of the line, or LACK OF support, especially for or against the HOME team.
10. EX; if a visiting team shows slow, steady declines and it never goes back up? Check the home team, and if the pitchers numbers are good, that is your play.
So, yesterday HOU (Oswalt) line looked like this:
OVERNIGHT -170
OPENING -165
then
early number at my service -183 (already, early, this number trumped both the overnight AND opening. But, keep watching.
Then, line looked like this:
-183, -183, -185, -186, -185, -188.
Oswalt era showed this: 3.00 overall and 2.45 last three.
Overall IP + last three IP = 79
He had the highest IP number for the day, his ear was low and even lower last three. His line movement showed support, and ended up +18 over the OVERNITE line.
This is what you are looking for. You have to do some comparative thinking, use your head, as some games are too close, or not playable.
CLEVELAND game was interesting. IMMEDIATE jump from overnite to opening line, but a very slow decline in line motion, but stayed above the overnight number. However! Carmona's IP was 56 compared to Braden's 26 and his era was 2.97-1.17 compared to 5.23-5.23 of Braden.
Cleveland won 6-3.
So, you have to look at ALL of the above info and CIRCLE the important things like era lower last three than overall (compare to other pitcher), LOSSES! are important, look for this: Any pitcher who has MORE wins AND less losses.
What you are looking for is for all of the above to be one-sided or heavy in favor of one team. The IP number is very important = compare it with the era numbers and you can see where a pitcher is at right now = the line SHOULD move accordingly. IF you see a line move AWAY from the good numbers, something is wrong = throw it out, don't play it. Also, a small decline in line movement isn't necessarily bad IF the number is above the overnite line, but not a big jump = you are looking for gradual motion, not chunks, unless it is in favor of the better pitcher. If you do the above, you get a better picture of what is what.
Not gonna win every game, but it helps. Here's my last three parlay's for the day using the above method (I took out my bet id for security reasons)
<table id="betIDs" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="odd"><td class="pendingBets" colspan="1">1) BET ID=</td><td class="pendingBets"> </td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td>Parlay (2 Teams)</td> <td>05/12/07 20:23 ET</td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td>50.00/73.73 (paid 123.73)</td> <td>Result: Wager Won</td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td>Cardinals(StLouis) (Looper) 5
Padres(SanDiego) (Young) 0</td><td valign="top">05/12/07 (22:05 ET)
Cardinals(StLouis) +1.5 (-175)</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"><td colspan="2"> </td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td>Reds(Cincinnati) (Lohse) 3
Dodgers(LA) (Penny) 7</td><td valign="top">05/12/07 (22:10 ET)
Dodgers(LA) -174</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"><td colspan="2"> </td></tr> <tr class="even"><td class="pendingBets" colspan="1">2) BET ID=</td><td class="pendingBets"> </td></tr> <tr class="even"><td>Parlay (2 Teams)</td> <td>05/12/07 19:38 ET</td></tr> <tr class="even"><td>40.00/50.95 (paid 90.95)</td> <td>Result: Wager Won</td></tr> <tr class="even"><td>Reds(Cincinnati) (Lohse) 3
Dodgers(LA) (Penny) 7</td><td valign="top">05/12/07 (22:10 ET)
Dodgers(LA) -171</td> </tr> <tr class="even"><td colspan="2"> </td></tr> <tr class="even"><td>Senators(Ottawa) 4
Sabres(Buffalo) 3</td><td valign="top">05/12/07 (20:05 ET)
Senators(Ottawa) +1.5 (-230)</td> </tr> <tr class="even"><td colspan="2"> </td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td class="pendingBets" colspan="1">3) BET ID=</td><td class="pendingBets"> </td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td>Parlay (2 Teams)</td> <td>05/12/07 18:46 ET</td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td>25.83/36.35 (paid 62.18)</td> <td>Result: Wager Won</td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td>Diamondbacks(Arizona) (Hernandez) 4
Astros(Houston) (Oswalt) 10</td><td valign="top">05/12/07 (19:05 ET)
Astros(Houston) -188</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"><td colspan="2"> </td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td>Reds(Cincinnati) (Lohse) 3
Dodgers(LA) (Penny) 7</td><td valign="top">05/12/07 (22:10 ET)
Dodgers(LA) -175</td></tr></tbody></table>
I had several all day, came out good.
Anyway, I'm just trying to contribute and I hope this helps someone. Any questions, I'll try and solidify if I left anything out. It's early morning and I have a slight celebratory headache =
))))
GL to all,
Uncle Steve (always looking for the angle(s)
So, try it out and see how it helps you. I'll detail step-by-step. I won several parlays yesterday with this (I'll show you the last three,too).
It flushed out these teams yesterday:
MILW
HOU
COL
LAD
CLEV
STL
Here's what I do =
1. Print out the OVERNIGHT line first on all games.
2. Then, go to Covers.com or any site and find the OPENING line for all games. (It will be different than the overnight line)
3. Write the opening line beside the overnight line (this will show you some money movement immediately).
4. Find the current line at your service (bodog, sb.com, whoever) write it down in line next to opening line.
5. Track the line movement whenever you can after that, up until game time and draw a BOX around any change (all these numbers will be in a row, with a box around any change). You are looking for movement.
6. Beside each pitcher, write in W-L so you can see it easily.
7. THEN! under matchups, add the IP overall with IP last three for each pitcher. Should give you a number, write it down beside each pitcher.
8. Then, write down each pitchers ERA = write down OVERALL ERA & last three game ERA. It should go up or down, that is what you are looking for.
9. Now, look for the line movement as compared to the OVERNIGHT line, then compare to the OPENING line. You are looking for CONSECUTIVE motion, several BOXES. This happens, and is most important in the MIDDLE of your row. You are looking for consistency in support of the line, or LACK OF support, especially for or against the HOME team.
10. EX; if a visiting team shows slow, steady declines and it never goes back up? Check the home team, and if the pitchers numbers are good, that is your play.
So, yesterday HOU (Oswalt) line looked like this:
OVERNIGHT -170
OPENING -165
then
early number at my service -183 (already, early, this number trumped both the overnight AND opening. But, keep watching.
Then, line looked like this:
-183, -183, -185, -186, -185, -188.
Oswalt era showed this: 3.00 overall and 2.45 last three.
Overall IP + last three IP = 79
He had the highest IP number for the day, his ear was low and even lower last three. His line movement showed support, and ended up +18 over the OVERNITE line.
This is what you are looking for. You have to do some comparative thinking, use your head, as some games are too close, or not playable.
CLEVELAND game was interesting. IMMEDIATE jump from overnite to opening line, but a very slow decline in line motion, but stayed above the overnight number. However! Carmona's IP was 56 compared to Braden's 26 and his era was 2.97-1.17 compared to 5.23-5.23 of Braden.
Cleveland won 6-3.
So, you have to look at ALL of the above info and CIRCLE the important things like era lower last three than overall (compare to other pitcher), LOSSES! are important, look for this: Any pitcher who has MORE wins AND less losses.
What you are looking for is for all of the above to be one-sided or heavy in favor of one team. The IP number is very important = compare it with the era numbers and you can see where a pitcher is at right now = the line SHOULD move accordingly. IF you see a line move AWAY from the good numbers, something is wrong = throw it out, don't play it. Also, a small decline in line movement isn't necessarily bad IF the number is above the overnite line, but not a big jump = you are looking for gradual motion, not chunks, unless it is in favor of the better pitcher. If you do the above, you get a better picture of what is what.
Not gonna win every game, but it helps. Here's my last three parlay's for the day using the above method (I took out my bet id for security reasons)
<table id="betIDs" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="odd"><td class="pendingBets" colspan="1">1) BET ID=</td><td class="pendingBets"> </td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td>Parlay (2 Teams)</td> <td>05/12/07 20:23 ET</td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td>50.00/73.73 (paid 123.73)</td> <td>Result: Wager Won</td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td>Cardinals(StLouis) (Looper) 5
Padres(SanDiego) (Young) 0</td><td valign="top">05/12/07 (22:05 ET)
Cardinals(StLouis) +1.5 (-175)</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"><td colspan="2"> </td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td>Reds(Cincinnati) (Lohse) 3
Dodgers(LA) (Penny) 7</td><td valign="top">05/12/07 (22:10 ET)
Dodgers(LA) -174</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"><td colspan="2"> </td></tr> <tr class="even"><td class="pendingBets" colspan="1">2) BET ID=</td><td class="pendingBets"> </td></tr> <tr class="even"><td>Parlay (2 Teams)</td> <td>05/12/07 19:38 ET</td></tr> <tr class="even"><td>40.00/50.95 (paid 90.95)</td> <td>Result: Wager Won</td></tr> <tr class="even"><td>Reds(Cincinnati) (Lohse) 3
Dodgers(LA) (Penny) 7</td><td valign="top">05/12/07 (22:10 ET)
Dodgers(LA) -171</td> </tr> <tr class="even"><td colspan="2"> </td></tr> <tr class="even"><td>Senators(Ottawa) 4
Sabres(Buffalo) 3</td><td valign="top">05/12/07 (20:05 ET)
Senators(Ottawa) +1.5 (-230)</td> </tr> <tr class="even"><td colspan="2"> </td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td class="pendingBets" colspan="1">3) BET ID=</td><td class="pendingBets"> </td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td>Parlay (2 Teams)</td> <td>05/12/07 18:46 ET</td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td>25.83/36.35 (paid 62.18)</td> <td>Result: Wager Won</td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td>Diamondbacks(Arizona) (Hernandez) 4
Astros(Houston) (Oswalt) 10</td><td valign="top">05/12/07 (19:05 ET)
Astros(Houston) -188</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"><td colspan="2"> </td></tr> <tr class="odd"><td>Reds(Cincinnati) (Lohse) 3
Dodgers(LA) (Penny) 7</td><td valign="top">05/12/07 (22:10 ET)
Dodgers(LA) -175</td></tr></tbody></table>
I had several all day, came out good.
Anyway, I'm just trying to contribute and I hope this helps someone. Any questions, I'll try and solidify if I left anything out. It's early morning and I have a slight celebratory headache =
))))GL to all,
Uncle Steve (always looking for the angle(s)
