Boxslayer's MLB Sunday (98-89, +23.96)

Boxslayer · May 13, 2007

98-89, +23.96
4-3, +1.75

Broke through the slump yesterday, but what could have been a monster day at (5-2, +6.05) turned into a shit little day when the Yankees and Mariners decided to shut their bats down in the 3rd inning, missing the over by 1 run. That was frustrating. On to today, and trying to keep this thing going in the right direction:

2* Milwaukee Brewers +106

Was going to play this small at 1*, but then I saw the Mets lineup today, and it is pathetic. Moises Alou is injured, Carlos Delgado will ride pine, Paul Lo Duca will ride pine, they have sat the heart and soul of this team down. Ramon Castro (C), Endy Chavez (OF), and Julio Franco will start, along with "Gomez (2B)" who appears to be a rookie who is not even listed on the roster. Throw in the obvious 9 hole pitcher, and Chris Capuano, one of the best quality start guys in the big leagues, will only have to bear down and get Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran out today to be successful.

This game means too much to Milwaukee to take a road series from a team like the Mets. These are the kinds of series you need to win to put your mark on teams for later on when the post season comes. I'll gladly take one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball (Chris Capuano) at a + price over one of the most inconsistent in baseball (Oliver Perez), regardless of venue. Mets are not a strong home team.

IBETHUGE · May 13, 2007

BOL Box on the Brew-Crew myself.

DankSmoker · May 13, 2007

IBETHUGE said:
BOL Box on the Brew-Crew myself.

couldnt really decided who to pull the trigger on till i saw your post... lets go brew cerw

Boxslayer · May 13, 2007

1* Tampa Bay Devil Rays +137

Going with Tampa Bay here, as the only team Jae Seo has ever had success against has been Toronto. 2 starts vs. them and an ERA under 1.50 vs. the Blue Jays.

I'm a big believer that winning streaks or losing streaks are broken in pairs. Meaning, Blue Jays broke their losing streak and have now won 2 in a row. You'll see it happen all of the time. Here is a great spot for Tampa Bay to break their losing streak.

Blue Jays will start Marcum, who will come out of the pen, and make his 1st start of the season. I dont expect Marcum to see the 6th inning in this game, and in a few spot starts last year, his ERA was near 5. Tampa Bay is too good of a hitting team to not put some runs up on this guy and take advantage of this spot. Since I'm pretty confident Tampa Bay will score runs in this game, it's hard not to take them small here at +137.

billsfan · May 13, 2007

Boxslayer said:
1* Tampa Bay Devil Rays +137

Going with Tampa Bay here, as the only team Jae Seo has ever had success against has been Toronto. 2 starts vs. them and an ERA under 1.50 vs. the Blue Jays.

I'm a big believer that winning streaks or losing streaks are broken in pairs. Meaning, Blue Jays broke their losing streak and have now won 2 in a row. You'll see it happen all of the time. Here is a great spot for Tampa Bay to break their losing streak.

Blue Jays will start Marcum, who will come out of the pen, and make his 1st start of the season. I dont expect Marcum to see the 6th inning in this game, and in a few spot starts last year, his ERA was near 5. Tampa Bay is too good of a hitting team to not put some runs up on this guy and take advantage of this spot. Since I'm pretty confident Tampa Bay will score runs in this game, it's hard not to take them small here at +137.

any thoughts on the over.....thinking hard about taking it??? Thanks Box

Boxslayer · May 13, 2007

The Over is another option, and I definitely looked at it, leaned to it, and it came down to Tampa or the over for me....but I decided to go with the + price, instead of laying 10-11 runs + juice.

Edit: I see some +110's out there. So the over isn't a bad bet either, IMO. But I'm personally going to stick with Tampa at the better odds.

GL Billsey

GreenMachine+ · May 13, 2007

Good Luck Box, love the Brew Crew with you.

billsfan · May 13, 2007

Boxslayer said:
The Over is another option, and I definitely looked at it, leaned to it, and it came down to Tampa or the over for me....but I decided to go with the + price, instead of laying 10-11 runs + juice.

Edit: I see some +110's out there. So the over isn't a bad bet either, IMO. But I'm personally going to stick with Tampa at the better odds.

GL Billsey

Thanks Box....I took the over.....I like Tampa alot, but my bf's POY is the Blue Jays today, so he got me off the Rays.....Enjoy the game and GL to you!!

Boxslayer · May 13, 2007

1* Pittsburgh Pirates -118

No Chipper Jones today for ATL. So they bat Edgar Renteria in the 3 hole, on a team whose strength this year has been the long ball and productive offense leading the bigs in HRs. Losing Chipper is a big blow because they will need offense today facing one of the hottest pitchers in the big leagues. Pirates are 8-3 with this umpire behind home plate last 11 games. Lerew makes his 1st MLB Road Start, vs. the outstanding Ian Snell with no Chipper, with minimal juice....thats really all there is to it. Pirates terrible offense has me at 1* here.

Boxslayer · May 13, 2007

2* Cubs/Phillies under 9 -115

As I've explained before, I love playing unders after the previous day flies over the total. Great spot here for it, IMO. Liber is a sinkerball type guy that is very effective at getting right handed hitters out. His weakness lies on getting lefties out, and the Cubs are void of quality left-handed bats. Liber should hold the Cubs at bay today.
Lilly has been a pleasant surprise for the Cubs, and the way you hold this left-handed dominant Phillies lineup down is to throw a lefty at them. Lilly has something else working in his favor today in the fact that he has actually been better this year at getting righties out, holding them to a .206 average against.

Dubpoet · May 13, 2007

Also a little cool today in Philly. Not that I am on under but it's not 90 degreees where the fly balls fly. Howard out and a lefty against us. GL Homo!

Boxslayer · May 13, 2007

Dubpoet said:
Also a little cool today in Philly. Not that I am on under but it's not 90 degreees where the fly balls fly. Howard out and a lefty against us. GL Homo!

Didnt check the weather, but I knew about Howard. He could be heading to the DL.

Great info Dubsta

IBETHUGE · May 13, 2007

Go Buccos!

Dubpoet · May 13, 2007

Wind is flying in from center rare! Nice play. I got cubs side play.

Boxslayer · May 13, 2007

Dubpoet said:
Wind is flying in from center rare! Nice play. I got cubs side play.

goin against your homies dubster?

Boxslayer · May 13, 2007

1* Giants/Rockies under 9.5 -110

No Bonds + Cain going for the series split in Colorado.

Boxslayer · May 13, 2007

1* Texas Rangers -105
1* LA Dodgers -1.5 +115

That's all for today. GL

Dubpoet · May 13, 2007

Boxslayer said:
goin against your homies dubster?

Absolutely!

Loren78 · May 13, 2007

Looks like its going to a monster day....

Boxslayer · May 13, 2007

Lookin about average IMO. Still could be a losing day - but Im anticipating a small winning day the way things have played out so far.

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