It didn't seem like a horrible matchup when they led by 19 points. They just thought they could coast when they got that lead and then were shell schocked when it got close. I doubt they will snooze their way through if they build the lead again.
Value is certainly on Bulls +3.5. I see this as a stone cold pickem.
Value is certainly on Bulls +3.5. I see this as a stone cold pickem.
one of the best angles in all of sports betting is to bet against a team down 0-3. all the value in the world goes out the window because the team down 0-3 has zero confidence and often mails it in. overs are a traditionally good play in this kind of spot too because the defensive intensity is often lacking. the # of times a 3-0 lead turns into a sweep is staggering.
... or it could simply be telling you that the bulls are done and about to quit. whatever your perspective, the line is what it is for a reason. teams far better than chicago have mailed in game 4s before in similar spots.
sure youre getting 'value' with chicago. but at the end of the day, if chicago quits on you and tanks the way so many teams down 0-3 do, then what good was the value?
the last part fair warning said is dead on (about waiting for something bad to happen)
look at the way miami and orlando crumbled in the first round despite playing ok for the 1st quarter or 1st half of game 4. once they faced any sort of run from their opponent, they showed no heart and just laid down. sometimes that run comes in the 1st qtr and it becomes a blowout. other times, the team down 0-3 plays great for half the game before going limp when something bad happens. again, theres no doubt there is value on the bulls. but anyone betting chicago is backing (today at least) a very mentally fragile team that could implode at any time. can they win the game? of course they can. but theyll be playing on eggshells all game and any detroit mini-run could knock them out and rip their confidence away.
I dont look at matchups and stuff like that. That is not how I handicap.
The line has been established and there was a huge overreaction/correction based on 1 game (a game where the Bulls led by nearly 20). The value was in the fact THEY should have been favored like they were in game 3. My best sport is the NFL from a capping prespective and the way I go about that is too find when I feel the public overreacts to the last game a team played.
This was supposed to be a close series and there is no way the Pistons should have ever been favored in Chicago.
Ice (or anyone) -- would you now buy back any Utah +7, or Utah ML?
I currently have $150 to win $305, only needing the back end of that parlay (GS ML).
Any value in taking $100 or so on Utah +7 (to try for the middle, a 1-7 point GS win), or Utah +280?
Just curious what you would do, if anything. I think I will just let it ride, but was curious to other thoughts.
