Service Plays Spreadsheet
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
></o>
I have always been amazed that the Charlie “Bonus Plays” do so much better than the Charlie “paid” or “premium” plays. But right now I would say that the Charlie (Bonus Plays) and Ben Burns appear to the best service to follow among the top group based on current win/loss streaks. The Charlie (Bonus Plays) have went 5~0 in the last 5 plays.
<o></o>
Service Fades Spreadsheet
<o></o>
What in the hell is going on with Gator (a.k.a. the Gator Report; a.k.a. Gator 70% Situations)??? This guy used to be the best fade on the board. But now he has went 5~2~1 (71%) over his last 8 plays and had raised his overall season record to 11~15 (42%).
<o></o>
The top group on the Fade Sheet is growing smaller. The very top group is now comprised of Larry Ness (Bonus Plays), MTI, and Stu Feiner (200*). Of this top three, I would pick Stu Feiner as the best fade due to the fact that his 200* plays have consistently stunk all season.
<o></o>
But the best fade on the board right now is buried in the middle of the bottom group on the Fade Sheet. It is there that you find Hondo, flying under the radar with an overall season record of 19~22 (46%). But did you realize that Hondo is 0~7 on his last 7 on plays? I just noticed this right now myself.
<o></o>
Spreadsheet Cuts
<o></o>
I eliminated about a dozen services from the spreadsheets this weekend based upon the criteria that I outlined on one of the service play threads earlier last week. My goal was to eliminate services that do not consistently have plays available for us to use or track. In a lot of cases we have only been able to track these services one day out of the last two or three weeks. These are the types of services that are of no value to us. Here is a list of the services that were eliminated from the two spreadsheets:
<o></o>
PPP (Full Game) 17~10 (63%) had only 1 tracked day in the last 20 days
Accu Picks 11~7 (61%) had only 3 tracked days in the last 23 days
PPP (5 Inning) 8~6 (57%) had only 1 tracked day in the last 26 days
ATS Financial 17~13 (56%) had 2 tracked days in the last 24 days
Raymond 23~18 (56%) had only 1 tracked day in the last 17
Mighty Quinn 6~5 (55%) had only 1 tracked day in the last 22 days
Norm Hitzges 27~24 (53%) had 0 tracked days in the 17 days
Boxer Sports 23~21 (52%) had only 2 tracked days in the last 23 days
ATS Locks Club 27~26 (51%)***
Kidz Korner 9~9 (50%) had 1 tracked day in the last 14 days
Curry Bagwell 63~72 (49%) had 0 tracked days in the last 24 days
Grid Iron 12~14 (46%) had 1 tracked day in the last 14 days
Doc Sports 13~16 (45%) had 2 tracked days in the last 24 days
Lock Smith 7~10 (41%) had 3 tracked days in the last 24 days
Jeff Benton 2~3 (40%) had 5 tracked plays the entire season
<o></o>
***ATS Locks Club actually has had plenty of plays for tracking. But they were cut for two different reasons. First, with a record of 27~26 (51%) ATS Locks Club definitely had the look of a service that would forever hover around the 50% mark. They rarely dipped below or rose above this status, making them useless as a tail or a fade. Second, with the cutting of ATS Financial and the inconsistency of plays from ATS Profits, it only makes sense to drop ATS Locks Club.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>I have always been amazed that the Charlie “Bonus Plays” do so much better than the Charlie “paid” or “premium” plays. But right now I would say that the Charlie (Bonus Plays) and Ben Burns appear to the best service to follow among the top group based on current win/loss streaks. The Charlie (Bonus Plays) have went 5~0 in the last 5 plays.
<o
></o>Service Fades Spreadsheet
<o
></o>What in the hell is going on with Gator (a.k.a. the Gator Report; a.k.a. Gator 70% Situations)??? This guy used to be the best fade on the board. But now he has went 5~2~1 (71%) over his last 8 plays and had raised his overall season record to 11~15 (42%).
<o
></o>The top group on the Fade Sheet is growing smaller. The very top group is now comprised of Larry Ness (Bonus Plays), MTI, and Stu Feiner (200*). Of this top three, I would pick Stu Feiner as the best fade due to the fact that his 200* plays have consistently stunk all season.
<o
></o>But the best fade on the board right now is buried in the middle of the bottom group on the Fade Sheet. It is there that you find Hondo, flying under the radar with an overall season record of 19~22 (46%). But did you realize that Hondo is 0~7 on his last 7 on plays? I just noticed this right now myself.
<o
></o>Spreadsheet Cuts
<o
></o>I eliminated about a dozen services from the spreadsheets this weekend based upon the criteria that I outlined on one of the service play threads earlier last week. My goal was to eliminate services that do not consistently have plays available for us to use or track. In a lot of cases we have only been able to track these services one day out of the last two or three weeks. These are the types of services that are of no value to us. Here is a list of the services that were eliminated from the two spreadsheets:
<o
></o>PPP (Full Game) 17~10 (63%) had only 1 tracked day in the last 20 days
Accu Picks 11~7 (61%) had only 3 tracked days in the last 23 days
PPP (5 Inning) 8~6 (57%) had only 1 tracked day in the last 26 days
ATS Financial 17~13 (56%) had 2 tracked days in the last 24 days
Raymond 23~18 (56%) had only 1 tracked day in the last 17
Mighty Quinn 6~5 (55%) had only 1 tracked day in the last 22 days
Norm Hitzges 27~24 (53%) had 0 tracked days in the 17 days
Boxer Sports 23~21 (52%) had only 2 tracked days in the last 23 days
ATS Locks Club 27~26 (51%)***
Kidz Korner 9~9 (50%) had 1 tracked day in the last 14 days
Curry Bagwell 63~72 (49%) had 0 tracked days in the last 24 days
Grid Iron 12~14 (46%) had 1 tracked day in the last 14 days
Doc Sports 13~16 (45%) had 2 tracked days in the last 24 days
Lock Smith 7~10 (41%) had 3 tracked days in the last 24 days
Jeff Benton 2~3 (40%) had 5 tracked plays the entire season
<o
></o>***ATS Locks Club actually has had plenty of plays for tracking. But they were cut for two different reasons. First, with a record of 27~26 (51%) ATS Locks Club definitely had the look of a service that would forever hover around the 50% mark. They rarely dipped below or rose above this status, making them useless as a tail or a fade. Second, with the cutting of ATS Financial and the inconsistency of plays from ATS Profits, it only makes sense to drop ATS Locks Club.
Same reiminder to everyone:
If you see that I have not had a chance to repost the baseball related service plays from Bookie Buster's NBA Forum thread by 4:00 or 4:30 PM Central Standard Time then you know that I am wrapped up at work or on the road traveling to meet clients.
When this occurs we have two choices:
(A) Go directly to Bookie Buster's NBA Forum thread to view the plays, or...
(B) Some of you have been nice enough to repost the service plays for everyone to see on this thread. All you need to do is cut and paste them here. Please separate the baseball related plays from the NBA and Horse plays.
Note: I usually cut and paste them temporarily onto a Micorsoft Word sheet so that I can quickly clean up an typos, cut any waste out of the posts and also sometimes make the Service names BOLD in the event that anything gets lost in trasnlation during the cut and paste job.
Thank you!
If you see that I have not had a chance to repost the baseball related service plays from Bookie Buster's NBA Forum thread by 4:00 or 4:30 PM Central Standard Time then you know that I am wrapped up at work or on the road traveling to meet clients.
When this occurs we have two choices:
(A) Go directly to Bookie Buster's NBA Forum thread to view the plays, or...
(B) Some of you have been nice enough to repost the service plays for everyone to see on this thread. All you need to do is cut and paste them here. Please separate the baseball related plays from the NBA and Horse plays.
Note: I usually cut and paste them temporarily onto a Micorsoft Word sheet so that I can quickly clean up an typos, cut any waste out of the posts and also sometimes make the Service names BOLD in the event that anything gets lost in trasnlation during the cut and paste job.
Thank you!
Monday Service Plays from Bookie Buster:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<o></o>
Michael Cannon Money Train
10 Dime
PIRATES
5 Dime
PHILLIES
Write-ups:
<o></o>
10 Dime –
PIRATES (With Gorzelanny as listed pitcher)
Take the Pirates at home for the win over the Marlins.
Florida is just not playing very good baseball right now. They will send Dontrelle Willis to the mound tonight and he does sport a 5-2 record, but his ERA is 5.40. He’s had a problem with his command over his last three games, walking 10 batters in 19 1-3 innings.
The Pirates will send talented left-hander Tom Gorzelanny to the hill tonight. Gorzelanny is 4-2 with a 2.72 ERA in seven starts this year. He was a hard luck loser in his last start, pitching seven innings and allowing only one earned run in a 1-0 loss to the Cubs.
The Bucs offense awoke big time yesterday in their 13-2 win over Atlanta. This could be the spark that they needed to get some of their big name hitters on track, such as Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez and Jason Bay.
Take the Pirates for the home win over the Marlins.
5 Dime –
PHILLIES (With Bush and Moyer as listed pitcher)
Take the Phillies for the home win tonight over the Brewers.
Jamie Moyer gets the nod for Philadelphia and he has been pitching well this year. The 44-year-old left-hander is 4-2 with a 3.00 ERA. He’s limited hitters to a .215 batting average and has pitched at least seven innings in four of his last five starts.
Milwaukee will send struggling Dave Bush to the mound opposite Moyer. Bush has the worst ERA of any Brewers starter and is 1-1 with a 6.61 ERA in three road starts.
Take the Phillies for the home win behind Moyer.
Rocketman
2* LA Angels -120 (Weaver/Millwood)
Vegas Experts
Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
Red Sox tough at home, 10-5 to be exact. They have won eight of their last 10 overall. Detroit used up its already short-handed bullpen in last night's loss to the Twins. Starter ROBERTSON is 3-14 against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage of .345 or better over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) BOSTON is 12-2 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season and 29-12 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 2 seasons.
Play on: Boston
Fast Eddie Sports
10* $200 TOP Play
San Diego Padres - 140
Lenny Del Genio
Cardinals at Dodgers
Prediction: Dodgers
The Cardinals won all seven games versus LA last season, outscoring the Dodgers 35-8 to sweep the season series for the first time in the 115-year history of the rivalry. LA scored more runs Sunday then it did in last season's entire series against the Cardinals though, as it amassed a season-high 18 hits in a 10-5 win over Cincinnati (scored 19 runs in a three-game sweep). While the NL West-leading Dodgers' offense seems to be clicking, St. Louis has been shutout a major league-high six times this season, including Sunday's 3-0 defeat to San Diego. The Cardinals have scored a major league-worst 110 runs and have failed to score at all in four of their last 10 games. RHP Brad Thompson makes his second start of the season for the Cardinals on Monday. Thompson, who started the year in the bullpen, had an effective first start Tuesday against Colorado, allowing one run in five innings of a 4-1 win, although he did not factor in the decision. RHP Brett Tomko (1-3, 4.33 ERA) has made quality starts in four of his six outings this season, but finally caught a break his last time out. He threw no-hit ball for 5 1/3 innings against Florida on Wednesday and allowed three runs and five hits in 6 2/3 innings en route to a 5-3 LA victory. He's 2-2 with a 3.64 ERA in 13 games (12 starts) against the Cardinals, who he hasn't faced since 2004.
<o></o>
Forget that 0-7 mark last year and take the Dodgers
Big Al McMordie
<o></o>
Marlins at Pirates
Prediction: Marlins
The Pirates have developed two of the best young starters in the National League in right-hander Ian Snell and lefthander Tom Gorzelanny, tonight's starter. But these two arms have not been enough to overcome the other shortcomings on this team, which finds itself with a record of 16-20 and headed for another losing season. The Pirates have to be especially concerned about their record at home, which is a dismal 6-10. But then again, even with a wonderful almost-new ballpark on the Allegheny River, people in this town really don't care that much about any sport that doesn't have the name Steelers in it. The Pirates are 26th in the league in home attendance averaging less than 20,000 fans per game, which is pretty bad given the aforementioned young pitching talent along with All-Star outfielder Jason Bay and last season's batting champion, 2B Freddy Sanchez. The Pirates got excited about something on Sunday however as they exploded for their largest offensive outburst this season, scoring 13 runs in a 13-2 rout of the Braves. Expect a major regression tonight after that one. The Marlins, meanwhile, are coming off the wrong end of an unthinkable three-game sweep at the hands of the woeful Washington Nationals. Imagine how badly they want to come in to PNC Park and win this one after being the first (and what could end up being the only) team to be swept by the worst squad in baseball in 2007. Despite lefty starter Dontrelle Willis' poor 5.40 ERA, the Marlins have won six of his eight starts this year. And the Marlins hit lefties well (.278 team batting average) while the Pirates do not (.244).
<o></o>
Take Florida.
The Wunderdog
Game: L A Angels at Texas (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Texas +105
Jared Weaver still hasn't looked like the pitcher he did last year when he first came up. Kevin Millwood has had thee bad starts in a row, but there are signs he is re-gaining the form that made him a desirable pitcher. He has more strikeouts than innings pitched in his last two starts and that is a sure sign the stuff is there and the location is next to come. Texas has not found the going good on the road, but are a better than .500 club at home. The Angels have been just 7-11 on the road, so we will ride the slight home dog here
Hondo
10 units Cubs
10 units Tigers
<o></o>
Players of America
<o></o>
ATLANTA -185
WASHINGTON +170
1* rating on ATLANTA
BOTH SMOLTZ/BERGMANN
FLORIDA +105 **
PITTSBURGH -115
1* rating on FLORIDA
BOTH WILLIS/GORZELANNY
DETROIT
BOSTON
10.0u-130 **
3* rating on OVER
BOTH ROBERTSON/MATSUZAK
Karl Garrett
10 DIMER - CINCINNATI REDS WITH BELISLE
The Reds have to be happy to head down I-5 as it was a lost weekend at Chavez Ravine as Cincy's losing streak has hit 3, and 6 of their last 7. I like the losing to stop tonight - at least for 1 game - in San Diego.
<o></o>
Greg Maddux continues to be a work-horse as he is off to a 2-2 start with an ERA just under 4, but he is up against the "due theory" tonight, as the Reds are due for a win, and they are certainly due for a win against Maddux who beat them in ALL 5 of his starts against them last season!
Matt Belisle has been one of the Reds best starters, and he is 2-0 on the road this year with an ERA of only 1.20.
Reds are due for a win, and I like the take-back money on this one.
LARRY COOK / INFO PLAYS
3* on Cardinals/Dodgers Over 8 (Listing Thompson and Tomko)
This Total is set far too low Monday. The Dodgers are 7-0 OVER in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse this season. The Dodgers are 9-1 OVER vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season and 8-0 OVER in home games vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season this season. The Dodgers are 11-2 OVER in home games after scoring 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Both starting pitchers have ERA’s over 4.00 on the season. This game will go OVER the Total before it even gets to the bullpens.
Take the OVER Monday.
Big Al's Monday AFTERNOON Baseball Winner
At 2:05pm our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Texas Rangers. How's this for a formula for disaster: A pitcher comes off the DL for his first start in 2 weeks at home in one of the biggest hitters parks in the league against one of the hottest and best hitting teams in the league. And this particular pitcher was not having a very good season before he went on the DL either. That is the situation we have this afternoon as righthanded veteran Kevin Millwood gets his first start against the Angels and young righthander ace Jered Weaver since sitting out with a bad hamstring. Weaver himself started the season on the DL and was a little rusty when he first came back, but he has been getting better and better and now seems to be in the same form as he was toward the end of last year, which is very bad news for opposing teams. The Angels are hitting 33 points higher vs. righthanders than the Rangers (.268 for LA vs. .235 for Texas). This game is a rare Monday afternoon businessman's special and fourth game of a weekend series and, until Sunday's come-from-behind victory by the Rangers, the Angels had dominated them winning the last 6 meetings. Expect a new streak to start with this one.
Take Los Angeles
WISE OWL SYNDICATE
PARLAY - Braves, Marlins, Angels OVERr
Louie Mayo
(50*) (26-13) FLORIDA +106
(30*) (22-15) CUBS +130
(20*) (18-15) REDS +119
Tony Onio
200?boston
GOLD KEY GAMES
3 Units (Bonus Play): LA Dodgers -145
Silver Key (Bonus Play): San Diego Padres -140
<o></o>
Rocketman Sports
2* LA Angels -120 (Weaver/Millwood)
Jimmy Boyd
Kansas City +165 (listing Meche)
Meche is a guy who feeds off of wins. He is 12-5 against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons so we can expect another solid outing from him today. Meche has been brilliant this season with a 3-1 record and posting a 2.15 ERA. The Royals have won all 3 of his last 3 starts in which he has an ERA of just 1.42. The Royals have taken 4 of the last 6 games at Oakland and Meche knows the A's well having saw them often when in Seattle. We'll pick up a nice underdog win on KC here today.
San Diego -132 (listing Maddux)
Cincy is a terrible 7-20 against the money line in night games this season. The Reds have lost 10 of their last 12 games and Maddux has owned them over the last 10 seasons. Maddux is 13-5 when starting against Cincy with an ERA of 3.63 and a WHIP of 1.065. There's no question we'll side with the better pitcher in a pitcher-friendly park today.
Black Widow
4* MAJOR on KC Royals +164 (List Meche)
Gil Meche has lived up to his $55 million contract he signed in the offseason for the Royals. Meche is 3-1 on the season, allowing just 13 runs in over 54 innings of work with a 2.15 ERA. What is even more ridiculous is his play on the road. Meche has pitched 20 Shutout innings with a 0.00 ERA and a 1-0 record away from home. This is just something that cant be overlooked today. The Royals are coming off an 11-1 win last night over the White Sox. They will be swinging with confidence. Take the Royals against the Money Line.
4* MAJOR on Baltimore –128 (List Bedard)
Baltimore swept a 3-game series with Toronto in Camden Yards last month. Looking to extend their recent success against Toronto, the Orioles will turn to ace Erik Bedard (3-2, 4.79 ERA), who has been very sharp in his last two starts despite not being rewarded with a win either time. The Baltimore ace allowed three hits over seven innings with 10 strikeouts on Wednesday in the Orioles' 1-0, 10-inning victory over Tampa Bay. Bedard, who is among the major league leaders with 56 strikeouts, has pitched at least six innings in each of his past three outings. Baltimore is 41-18 against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Jays are just 2-10 in their last 12 games overall. The Orioles are 6-0 in Bedard's last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take Baltimore behind Bedard today.
1* on Pittsburgh –116 (List Gorzellany)
The Pirates picked up a 13-2 win over Atlanta yesterday and will be playing with confidence. Dontrelle Willis of Florida has not pitched well this season with a 5.40 ERA. He just cant seem to return to his old form. The Marlins have lost 3 straight games and are only 4-19 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons. The Marlins are just 3-13 in Willis last 16 games as a road underdog and 0-7 in Willis last 7 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Gorzellany has been a pleasant surprise with his 4-2 record and only a 2.72 ERA this season. Cash in with the Pirates Monday.
Dave Price
Toronto +125 (action)
Baltimore will have nothing left after yesterday's devastating defeat by Boston who scored 6 runs in the 9th to win 6-5. The Jays are 31-11 against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 2 seasons and Baltimore is 15-35 against the money line after a one run loss over the last 3 seasons. Take the Jays at home showing good value.
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
></o>Michael Cannon Money Train
10 Dime
PIRATES
5 Dime
PHILLIES
Write-ups:
<o
></o>10 Dime –
PIRATES (With Gorzelanny as listed pitcher)
Take the Pirates at home for the win over the Marlins.
Florida is just not playing very good baseball right now. They will send Dontrelle Willis to the mound tonight and he does sport a 5-2 record, but his ERA is 5.40. He’s had a problem with his command over his last three games, walking 10 batters in 19 1-3 innings.
The Pirates will send talented left-hander Tom Gorzelanny to the hill tonight. Gorzelanny is 4-2 with a 2.72 ERA in seven starts this year. He was a hard luck loser in his last start, pitching seven innings and allowing only one earned run in a 1-0 loss to the Cubs.
The Bucs offense awoke big time yesterday in their 13-2 win over Atlanta. This could be the spark that they needed to get some of their big name hitters on track, such as Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez and Jason Bay.
Take the Pirates for the home win over the Marlins.
5 Dime –
PHILLIES (With Bush and Moyer as listed pitcher)
Take the Phillies for the home win tonight over the Brewers.
Jamie Moyer gets the nod for Philadelphia and he has been pitching well this year. The 44-year-old left-hander is 4-2 with a 3.00 ERA. He’s limited hitters to a .215 batting average and has pitched at least seven innings in four of his last five starts.
Milwaukee will send struggling Dave Bush to the mound opposite Moyer. Bush has the worst ERA of any Brewers starter and is 1-1 with a 6.61 ERA in three road starts.
Take the Phillies for the home win behind Moyer.
Rocketman
2* LA Angels -120 (Weaver/Millwood)
Vegas Experts
Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
Red Sox tough at home, 10-5 to be exact. They have won eight of their last 10 overall. Detroit used up its already short-handed bullpen in last night's loss to the Twins. Starter ROBERTSON is 3-14 against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage of .345 or better over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) BOSTON is 12-2 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season and 29-12 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 2 seasons.
Play on: Boston
Fast Eddie Sports
10* $200 TOP Play
San Diego Padres - 140
Lenny Del Genio
Cardinals at Dodgers
Prediction: Dodgers
The Cardinals won all seven games versus LA last season, outscoring the Dodgers 35-8 to sweep the season series for the first time in the 115-year history of the rivalry. LA scored more runs Sunday then it did in last season's entire series against the Cardinals though, as it amassed a season-high 18 hits in a 10-5 win over Cincinnati (scored 19 runs in a three-game sweep). While the NL West-leading Dodgers' offense seems to be clicking, St. Louis has been shutout a major league-high six times this season, including Sunday's 3-0 defeat to San Diego. The Cardinals have scored a major league-worst 110 runs and have failed to score at all in four of their last 10 games. RHP Brad Thompson makes his second start of the season for the Cardinals on Monday. Thompson, who started the year in the bullpen, had an effective first start Tuesday against Colorado, allowing one run in five innings of a 4-1 win, although he did not factor in the decision. RHP Brett Tomko (1-3, 4.33 ERA) has made quality starts in four of his six outings this season, but finally caught a break his last time out. He threw no-hit ball for 5 1/3 innings against Florida on Wednesday and allowed three runs and five hits in 6 2/3 innings en route to a 5-3 LA victory. He's 2-2 with a 3.64 ERA in 13 games (12 starts) against the Cardinals, who he hasn't faced since 2004.
<o
></o>Forget that 0-7 mark last year and take the Dodgers
Big Al McMordie
<o
></o>Marlins at Pirates
Prediction: Marlins
The Pirates have developed two of the best young starters in the National League in right-hander Ian Snell and lefthander Tom Gorzelanny, tonight's starter. But these two arms have not been enough to overcome the other shortcomings on this team, which finds itself with a record of 16-20 and headed for another losing season. The Pirates have to be especially concerned about their record at home, which is a dismal 6-10. But then again, even with a wonderful almost-new ballpark on the Allegheny River, people in this town really don't care that much about any sport that doesn't have the name Steelers in it. The Pirates are 26th in the league in home attendance averaging less than 20,000 fans per game, which is pretty bad given the aforementioned young pitching talent along with All-Star outfielder Jason Bay and last season's batting champion, 2B Freddy Sanchez. The Pirates got excited about something on Sunday however as they exploded for their largest offensive outburst this season, scoring 13 runs in a 13-2 rout of the Braves. Expect a major regression tonight after that one. The Marlins, meanwhile, are coming off the wrong end of an unthinkable three-game sweep at the hands of the woeful Washington Nationals. Imagine how badly they want to come in to PNC Park and win this one after being the first (and what could end up being the only) team to be swept by the worst squad in baseball in 2007. Despite lefty starter Dontrelle Willis' poor 5.40 ERA, the Marlins have won six of his eight starts this year. And the Marlins hit lefties well (.278 team batting average) while the Pirates do not (.244).
<o
></o>Take Florida.
The Wunderdog
Game: L A Angels at Texas (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Texas +105
Jared Weaver still hasn't looked like the pitcher he did last year when he first came up. Kevin Millwood has had thee bad starts in a row, but there are signs he is re-gaining the form that made him a desirable pitcher. He has more strikeouts than innings pitched in his last two starts and that is a sure sign the stuff is there and the location is next to come. Texas has not found the going good on the road, but are a better than .500 club at home. The Angels have been just 7-11 on the road, so we will ride the slight home dog here
Hondo
10 units Cubs
10 units Tigers
<o
></o>Players of America
<o
></o>ATLANTA -185
WASHINGTON +170
1* rating on ATLANTA
BOTH SMOLTZ/BERGMANN
FLORIDA +105 **
PITTSBURGH -115
1* rating on FLORIDA
BOTH WILLIS/GORZELANNY
DETROIT
BOSTON
10.0u-130 **
3* rating on OVER
BOTH ROBERTSON/MATSUZAK
Karl Garrett
10 DIMER - CINCINNATI REDS WITH BELISLE
The Reds have to be happy to head down I-5 as it was a lost weekend at Chavez Ravine as Cincy's losing streak has hit 3, and 6 of their last 7. I like the losing to stop tonight - at least for 1 game - in San Diego.
<o
></o>Greg Maddux continues to be a work-horse as he is off to a 2-2 start with an ERA just under 4, but he is up against the "due theory" tonight, as the Reds are due for a win, and they are certainly due for a win against Maddux who beat them in ALL 5 of his starts against them last season!
Matt Belisle has been one of the Reds best starters, and he is 2-0 on the road this year with an ERA of only 1.20.
Reds are due for a win, and I like the take-back money on this one.
LARRY COOK / INFO PLAYS
3* on Cardinals/Dodgers Over 8 (Listing Thompson and Tomko)
This Total is set far too low Monday. The Dodgers are 7-0 OVER in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse this season. The Dodgers are 9-1 OVER vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season and 8-0 OVER in home games vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season this season. The Dodgers are 11-2 OVER in home games after scoring 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Both starting pitchers have ERA’s over 4.00 on the season. This game will go OVER the Total before it even gets to the bullpens.
Take the OVER Monday.
Big Al's Monday AFTERNOON Baseball Winner
At 2:05pm our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Texas Rangers. How's this for a formula for disaster: A pitcher comes off the DL for his first start in 2 weeks at home in one of the biggest hitters parks in the league against one of the hottest and best hitting teams in the league. And this particular pitcher was not having a very good season before he went on the DL either. That is the situation we have this afternoon as righthanded veteran Kevin Millwood gets his first start against the Angels and young righthander ace Jered Weaver since sitting out with a bad hamstring. Weaver himself started the season on the DL and was a little rusty when he first came back, but he has been getting better and better and now seems to be in the same form as he was toward the end of last year, which is very bad news for opposing teams. The Angels are hitting 33 points higher vs. righthanders than the Rangers (.268 for LA vs. .235 for Texas). This game is a rare Monday afternoon businessman's special and fourth game of a weekend series and, until Sunday's come-from-behind victory by the Rangers, the Angels had dominated them winning the last 6 meetings. Expect a new streak to start with this one.
Take Los Angeles
WISE OWL SYNDICATE
PARLAY - Braves, Marlins, Angels OVERr
Louie Mayo
(50*) (26-13) FLORIDA +106
(30*) (22-15) CUBS +130
(20*) (18-15) REDS +119
Tony Onio
200?boston
GOLD KEY GAMES
3 Units (Bonus Play): LA Dodgers -145
Silver Key (Bonus Play): San Diego Padres -140
<o
></o>Rocketman Sports
2* LA Angels -120 (Weaver/Millwood)
Jimmy Boyd
Kansas City +165 (listing Meche)
Meche is a guy who feeds off of wins. He is 12-5 against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons so we can expect another solid outing from him today. Meche has been brilliant this season with a 3-1 record and posting a 2.15 ERA. The Royals have won all 3 of his last 3 starts in which he has an ERA of just 1.42. The Royals have taken 4 of the last 6 games at Oakland and Meche knows the A's well having saw them often when in Seattle. We'll pick up a nice underdog win on KC here today.
San Diego -132 (listing Maddux)
Cincy is a terrible 7-20 against the money line in night games this season. The Reds have lost 10 of their last 12 games and Maddux has owned them over the last 10 seasons. Maddux is 13-5 when starting against Cincy with an ERA of 3.63 and a WHIP of 1.065. There's no question we'll side with the better pitcher in a pitcher-friendly park today.
Black Widow
4* MAJOR on KC Royals +164 (List Meche)
Gil Meche has lived up to his $55 million contract he signed in the offseason for the Royals. Meche is 3-1 on the season, allowing just 13 runs in over 54 innings of work with a 2.15 ERA. What is even more ridiculous is his play on the road. Meche has pitched 20 Shutout innings with a 0.00 ERA and a 1-0 record away from home. This is just something that cant be overlooked today. The Royals are coming off an 11-1 win last night over the White Sox. They will be swinging with confidence. Take the Royals against the Money Line.
4* MAJOR on Baltimore –128 (List Bedard)
Baltimore swept a 3-game series with Toronto in Camden Yards last month. Looking to extend their recent success against Toronto, the Orioles will turn to ace Erik Bedard (3-2, 4.79 ERA), who has been very sharp in his last two starts despite not being rewarded with a win either time. The Baltimore ace allowed three hits over seven innings with 10 strikeouts on Wednesday in the Orioles' 1-0, 10-inning victory over Tampa Bay. Bedard, who is among the major league leaders with 56 strikeouts, has pitched at least six innings in each of his past three outings. Baltimore is 41-18 against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Jays are just 2-10 in their last 12 games overall. The Orioles are 6-0 in Bedard's last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take Baltimore behind Bedard today.
1* on Pittsburgh –116 (List Gorzellany)
The Pirates picked up a 13-2 win over Atlanta yesterday and will be playing with confidence. Dontrelle Willis of Florida has not pitched well this season with a 5.40 ERA. He just cant seem to return to his old form. The Marlins have lost 3 straight games and are only 4-19 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons. The Marlins are just 3-13 in Willis last 16 games as a road underdog and 0-7 in Willis last 7 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Gorzellany has been a pleasant surprise with his 4-2 record and only a 2.72 ERA this season. Cash in with the Pirates Monday.
Dave Price
Toronto +125 (action)
Baltimore will have nothing left after yesterday's devastating defeat by Boston who scored 6 runs in the 9th to win 6-5. The Jays are 31-11 against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 2 seasons and Baltimore is 15-35 against the money line after a one run loss over the last 3 seasons. Take the Jays at home showing good value.
Monday Service Plays from Bookie Buster:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<o></o>
LT Profits
Texas Rangers r964
(110) *OPINION* Take Texas +110 at Home vs. Halos
The Rangers finally broke through with a victory over the Angels yesterday after losing the first five games of the season series, and we look for them to gain a split of this wrap-around weekend series today.
This game marks the return to the mound of Kevin Millwood, who was hit hard this season before going on the disabled list. We have to believe however that he was bothered by his injury, and that he would not be returning if he was not ready. Thus this is nice value getting a healthy Millwood as a home underdog, as he has allowed three runs or less in three of his last four starts vs. the Halos.
Furthermore, Jered Weaver has been much more hittable this year than he was in his sensational rookie season, as he has a high 1.58 WHIP to date. Also, even when he was good, we got bombed the last time he faced the Rangers last year, surrendering five earned runs on 10 hits in 6.2 innings.
Take Cards, Dodgers to Go Under 8
The Under is now 12-4-1 in all St. Louis road games this season, and we look for that pattern to continue tonight.
The Cardinals have failed to hit anywhere this season, but this has been especially true on the road, where they are averaging just 3.12 runs per game with a woeful .225 team batting average. Things do not figure to get any easier tonight vs. the Dodgers’ Brett Tomko, who had allowed three earned runs or less in five of his six starts this season. The Cardinals counter with Brad Thompson, who looked impressive in his first outing, allowing only one run on six hits in five innings. He should be tough on a Dodgers lineup that has never seen him before.
Finally, both of these bullpens are among the best in the Major Leagues, with Los Angeles ranking fourth with a bullpen ERA of 2.95 and St. Louis reporting home fifth at 3.03.
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
></o>LT Profits
Texas Rangers r964
(110) *OPINION* Take Texas +110 at Home vs. Halos
The Rangers finally broke through with a victory over the Angels yesterday after losing the first five games of the season series, and we look for them to gain a split of this wrap-around weekend series today.
This game marks the return to the mound of Kevin Millwood, who was hit hard this season before going on the disabled list. We have to believe however that he was bothered by his injury, and that he would not be returning if he was not ready. Thus this is nice value getting a healthy Millwood as a home underdog, as he has allowed three runs or less in three of his last four starts vs. the Halos.
Furthermore, Jered Weaver has been much more hittable this year than he was in his sensational rookie season, as he has a high 1.58 WHIP to date. Also, even when he was good, we got bombed the last time he faced the Rangers last year, surrendering five earned runs on 10 hits in 6.2 innings.
Take Cards, Dodgers to Go Under 8
The Under is now 12-4-1 in all St. Louis road games this season, and we look for that pattern to continue tonight.
The Cardinals have failed to hit anywhere this season, but this has been especially true on the road, where they are averaging just 3.12 runs per game with a woeful .225 team batting average. Things do not figure to get any easier tonight vs. the Dodgers’ Brett Tomko, who had allowed three earned runs or less in five of his six starts this season. The Cardinals counter with Brad Thompson, who looked impressive in his first outing, allowing only one run on six hits in five innings. He should be tough on a Dodgers lineup that has never seen him before.
Finally, both of these bullpens are among the best in the Major Leagues, with Los Angeles ranking fourth with a bullpen ERA of 2.95 and St. Louis reporting home fifth at 3.03.
Monday Service Plays from Bookie Buster:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<o></o>
Larry Ness' 15* AL Underdog GOW (now 30-7 with 15* GOW plays in MLB this season!)
My 15* play is on the Det Tigers at 7:05 ET. Here's a meeting between two red-hot teams. The Tigers are 9-2 in May and the Red Sox, 9-3. The Tigers are off their most lopsided loss of the season, losing 16-4 last night in Minnesota. However, the team hasn't lost back-to-back games since April 27-28. The Red Sox came back to beat the Orioles yesterday (6-5) and have now won six of seven, while outscoring their opponents 52-23. Detroit won two of three at Fenway last year, on their way to MLB's best road record (49-32). Detroit is again playing well on the road, as the Tigers enter this game at 13-6 away Comerica. Nate Robertson will pitch for Detroit and he looks to bounce back from his worst outing of the year. The left-hander gave up six runs and 10 hits in 4.2 innings to suffer the loss against Seattle in Wednesday's 9-2 defeat. However, he hadn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his previous six starts this year and in two road starts, owns a 1.26 ERA. Matsuzaka goes for the Red sox and he's 4-2 with 4.80 ERA in seven starts in 2007. He's made three starts in Fenway and after a solid performance in his debut, he's been terrible in his last two home starts. In just 12 innings, he's allowed 13 ERs (eight Ks vs six walks) for a 9.75 ERA, leaving his home ERA at 7.58 on the season. AL Underdog GOW on the Det Tigers.
Larry Ness' 15* NL Game of the Week (30-7 w/15* GOW plays since Opening Day!)
My 15* play is on the SD Padres at 10:05 ET. It can't get too much worse for the Reds but then again, maybe it can? Cincy blew a 5-3 lead Sunday and lost to the Dodgers 10-5. They've now lost 10 of their last 12 games (held leads in seven of the 10 losses) and five straight on the road. Tonight, they open a three-game series at San Diego, where they lost two of three last year, batting .208 as a team with 23 Ks in 96 ABs! Worse yet, they'll face Greg Maddux, who last year (with the Cubs and Dodgers), went 5-0 against Cincinnati, allowing just 22 hits in 30 innings with a 2.40 ERA. Maddux has pitched well in 2007 for San Diego, with a 2-2 mark in seven starts, with a 3.67 ERA. He's allowed more than three ERs in just TWO of those seven starts (four each time) and like last year, has pitched much better in his home park, than on the road. In 2006, Maddux had a 3.41 home ERA, as compared to a 5.20 road ERA. He's been on the road for five of his starts in 2007 with a 4.60 ERA but in his two starts at Petco, has posted a 1.20 ERA. Matt Belisle starts for Cincy. He made just seven starts in his 90 appearances the last two seasons for the Reds but has been used exclusively as a starter in 2007. It's been either feast or famine for him, as in four starts he's allowed one ER or less, while in the three others, he's allowed 14 ERs in 16.1 innings (7.71 ERA). As mentioned earlier, the Reds haven't been able to hold leads and that just may have something to do with a bullpen that's posted a 5.97 ERA since April 16! NL Game of the Week 15* SD Padres
Ben Burns' Personal Favorite BLOWOUT (7-1 L8 PFs!) -- Monday
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Brewers have gotten off to a great start. They lost their first series on the road this past weekend though and may be ready to come back to earth slightly. Conversely, the Phillies have gotten off to a poor start but come off a series win and could be ready to turn the corner. Regardless of whether or not that proves to be true, I do expect the Phillies to have a significant advantage in the starting pitching department for tonight's game. The Brewers are a terrific 14-5 when Bush starts at home. However, they're a horrible 5-15 when he starts on the road. Its also worth noting that Bush's teams are now a combined 2-11 in his last 13 road starts in April or May. Moyer has much better stats than Bush so far this season, regardless of venue. That's been particularly true the past couple of weeks. Bush is 1-2 with a 6.63 ERA his last three starts while Moyer is 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA his last three starts, averaging better than seven innings. In fact, Moyer has pitched at least six complete innnings in all seven of his starts this season and has allowed three earned runs or less in all of them. While Moyer is 8-5 with a solid 3.46 ERA in 19 career appearances vs. Milwaukee, Bush has an ugly 6.35 ERA in two starts vs. Philadelphia. Its worth mentioning that Moyer hasn't faced Milwaukee in the past 10 years and that only one regular (Kevin Mench) has ever faced him before. That gives the crafty veteran left-hander an advantage that he doesn't have too often. Look for Moyer (2.03 ERA, 0.975 WHIP at home) to deliver another quality start as he outpitches Bush (6.61, 1.776 WHIP on the road) and the Phillies to improve to 15-5 the last 20 times they were a host in this series. *Personal Favorite
Ben Burns' American League Game of the Week (27-7 L34 MLB!)
I'm laying the price with BOSTON. Both teams have been red hot this month and both sit on top of their respective divisions. However, "Big Mo" is clearly on the side of the home team. The Red Sox are off a thrilling comeback victory yesterday, in which they scored six runs in the bottom of the 9th inning to win by a score of 6-5. The Tigers closed out their series with the Twins last night by getting drubbed 16-4 in front of a national ESPN audience. Note that the Red Sox game was here in Boston yesterday afternoon while the Tigers game was under the lights at Minnesota. The Tigers look to bounce back by sending Nate Robertson to the mound. Robertson is certainly tough. However, he comes off a sub-par start (six runs and 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings!) and the Red Sox have hit well vs. left-handers, averaging 5.6 runs with a .291 average and a .400 on-base-percentage. Not surprisingly, the Sox are 5-2 their last seven games against southpaw starters and 6-2 their last eight games vs. southpaws here in Boston. The Sox have also hit well against Robertson as they have won four of five games in which he started against them with Robertson recording an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.636 WHIP. The Red Sox send Dice-K to the mound and they've won his last four starts. The Japanese right-hander, who will have the advantage of facing Detroit for the first time, comes off a strong start in which he held the Blue Jays to one run and five hits while striking out eight in seven innings. Its also worth mentioning that the Boston bullpen has an excellent 2.27 ERA this season while the Tigers' bullpen has a mediocre 4.29 mark. The Tigers have feasted on losing teams but are only 7-5 against teams with a winning record. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have been at their best against top tier teams, going an impressive 12-2 against teams with a winning record. Look for them to build off those stats by starting this series off with a victory. *AL GOW
LANG
15 Dime
Philly
10 Dime
Red Soxs
Padres
5 Dime
Angels
Orioles
Mets
pulltabpetey
Survivor Pick Record: 11-1-0
Mon pick: Philly -117 (started 0-1 & is now 11-0 going for #12)
markalan
Survivor Pick Record: 43-26-4
Mon pick: Philly -117
ATS Lock Club <o></o>
<o></o>
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->3 Pirates -115
3 over Phillies/Brewers 9.5
Rob House
1,000,000 phillies
Lee Kostroski - Bonus Play (7-0 last 7) <o></o>
<o></o>
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->GAME: Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres Under
San Diego starter Greg Maddux is a sure-fire Hall of Famer while Cincinnati starter Matt Belisle is known by very few outside of Ohio. But both are pitching really well this season and the success will continue for each hurler tonight. Maddux continues to pitch well despite his advancing age, posting a 3.67 ERA and 1.13 ERA in seven starts this year. He hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs in any start this year and has allowed just six earned runs in three home starts this season.
Belisle has been equally impressive this year. He boasts a 3.45 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and has surrendered one or fewer runs in four of his five starts this year. Belisle has been especially tough on the road where he has allowed just two earned runs in 15 innings.
Neither the Red nor Padre offenses has been hitting too well this year either as both teams are in the bottom third of baseball in batting average. San Diego has averaged just three runs per game over its last eight outings in going under the total in seven of those eight contests. The Padres have been really bad in their home stadium where they are hitting just .227 on the year. Cincinnati is hitting just .244 on the road so scoring should be at a premium. Take the under with Belisle and Maddux pitching.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->Billy Coleman
4 Phillies
3 Nationals
Jimmy Broadway
500* Oakland A's Run line
300* Pittsburgh
Frank Rosenthal
954 PIRATES-120 SB
956 PHILLY-120 SB
964 RANGERS+105 SB
970 A'S-170 SB
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
></o>Larry Ness' 15* AL Underdog GOW (now 30-7 with 15* GOW plays in MLB this season!)
My 15* play is on the Det Tigers at 7:05 ET. Here's a meeting between two red-hot teams. The Tigers are 9-2 in May and the Red Sox, 9-3. The Tigers are off their most lopsided loss of the season, losing 16-4 last night in Minnesota. However, the team hasn't lost back-to-back games since April 27-28. The Red Sox came back to beat the Orioles yesterday (6-5) and have now won six of seven, while outscoring their opponents 52-23. Detroit won two of three at Fenway last year, on their way to MLB's best road record (49-32). Detroit is again playing well on the road, as the Tigers enter this game at 13-6 away Comerica. Nate Robertson will pitch for Detroit and he looks to bounce back from his worst outing of the year. The left-hander gave up six runs and 10 hits in 4.2 innings to suffer the loss against Seattle in Wednesday's 9-2 defeat. However, he hadn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his previous six starts this year and in two road starts, owns a 1.26 ERA. Matsuzaka goes for the Red sox and he's 4-2 with 4.80 ERA in seven starts in 2007. He's made three starts in Fenway and after a solid performance in his debut, he's been terrible in his last two home starts. In just 12 innings, he's allowed 13 ERs (eight Ks vs six walks) for a 9.75 ERA, leaving his home ERA at 7.58 on the season. AL Underdog GOW on the Det Tigers.
Larry Ness' 15* NL Game of the Week (30-7 w/15* GOW plays since Opening Day!)
My 15* play is on the SD Padres at 10:05 ET. It can't get too much worse for the Reds but then again, maybe it can? Cincy blew a 5-3 lead Sunday and lost to the Dodgers 10-5. They've now lost 10 of their last 12 games (held leads in seven of the 10 losses) and five straight on the road. Tonight, they open a three-game series at San Diego, where they lost two of three last year, batting .208 as a team with 23 Ks in 96 ABs! Worse yet, they'll face Greg Maddux, who last year (with the Cubs and Dodgers), went 5-0 against Cincinnati, allowing just 22 hits in 30 innings with a 2.40 ERA. Maddux has pitched well in 2007 for San Diego, with a 2-2 mark in seven starts, with a 3.67 ERA. He's allowed more than three ERs in just TWO of those seven starts (four each time) and like last year, has pitched much better in his home park, than on the road. In 2006, Maddux had a 3.41 home ERA, as compared to a 5.20 road ERA. He's been on the road for five of his starts in 2007 with a 4.60 ERA but in his two starts at Petco, has posted a 1.20 ERA. Matt Belisle starts for Cincy. He made just seven starts in his 90 appearances the last two seasons for the Reds but has been used exclusively as a starter in 2007. It's been either feast or famine for him, as in four starts he's allowed one ER or less, while in the three others, he's allowed 14 ERs in 16.1 innings (7.71 ERA). As mentioned earlier, the Reds haven't been able to hold leads and that just may have something to do with a bullpen that's posted a 5.97 ERA since April 16! NL Game of the Week 15* SD Padres
Ben Burns' Personal Favorite BLOWOUT (7-1 L8 PFs!) -- Monday
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Brewers have gotten off to a great start. They lost their first series on the road this past weekend though and may be ready to come back to earth slightly. Conversely, the Phillies have gotten off to a poor start but come off a series win and could be ready to turn the corner. Regardless of whether or not that proves to be true, I do expect the Phillies to have a significant advantage in the starting pitching department for tonight's game. The Brewers are a terrific 14-5 when Bush starts at home. However, they're a horrible 5-15 when he starts on the road. Its also worth noting that Bush's teams are now a combined 2-11 in his last 13 road starts in April or May. Moyer has much better stats than Bush so far this season, regardless of venue. That's been particularly true the past couple of weeks. Bush is 1-2 with a 6.63 ERA his last three starts while Moyer is 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA his last three starts, averaging better than seven innings. In fact, Moyer has pitched at least six complete innnings in all seven of his starts this season and has allowed three earned runs or less in all of them. While Moyer is 8-5 with a solid 3.46 ERA in 19 career appearances vs. Milwaukee, Bush has an ugly 6.35 ERA in two starts vs. Philadelphia. Its worth mentioning that Moyer hasn't faced Milwaukee in the past 10 years and that only one regular (Kevin Mench) has ever faced him before. That gives the crafty veteran left-hander an advantage that he doesn't have too often. Look for Moyer (2.03 ERA, 0.975 WHIP at home) to deliver another quality start as he outpitches Bush (6.61, 1.776 WHIP on the road) and the Phillies to improve to 15-5 the last 20 times they were a host in this series. *Personal Favorite
Ben Burns' American League Game of the Week (27-7 L34 MLB!)
I'm laying the price with BOSTON. Both teams have been red hot this month and both sit on top of their respective divisions. However, "Big Mo" is clearly on the side of the home team. The Red Sox are off a thrilling comeback victory yesterday, in which they scored six runs in the bottom of the 9th inning to win by a score of 6-5. The Tigers closed out their series with the Twins last night by getting drubbed 16-4 in front of a national ESPN audience. Note that the Red Sox game was here in Boston yesterday afternoon while the Tigers game was under the lights at Minnesota. The Tigers look to bounce back by sending Nate Robertson to the mound. Robertson is certainly tough. However, he comes off a sub-par start (six runs and 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings!) and the Red Sox have hit well vs. left-handers, averaging 5.6 runs with a .291 average and a .400 on-base-percentage. Not surprisingly, the Sox are 5-2 their last seven games against southpaw starters and 6-2 their last eight games vs. southpaws here in Boston. The Sox have also hit well against Robertson as they have won four of five games in which he started against them with Robertson recording an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.636 WHIP. The Red Sox send Dice-K to the mound and they've won his last four starts. The Japanese right-hander, who will have the advantage of facing Detroit for the first time, comes off a strong start in which he held the Blue Jays to one run and five hits while striking out eight in seven innings. Its also worth mentioning that the Boston bullpen has an excellent 2.27 ERA this season while the Tigers' bullpen has a mediocre 4.29 mark. The Tigers have feasted on losing teams but are only 7-5 against teams with a winning record. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have been at their best against top tier teams, going an impressive 12-2 against teams with a winning record. Look for them to build off those stats by starting this series off with a victory. *AL GOW
LANG
15 Dime
Philly
10 Dime
Red Soxs
Padres
5 Dime
Angels
Orioles
Mets
pulltabpetey
Survivor Pick Record: 11-1-0
Mon pick: Philly -117 (started 0-1 & is now 11-0 going for #12)
markalan
Survivor Pick Record: 43-26-4
Mon pick: Philly -117
ATS Lock Club <o
></o><o
></o><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->3 Pirates -115
3 over Phillies/Brewers 9.5
Rob House
1,000,000 phillies
Lee Kostroski - Bonus Play (7-0 last 7) <o
></o><o
></o><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->GAME: Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres Under
San Diego starter Greg Maddux is a sure-fire Hall of Famer while Cincinnati starter Matt Belisle is known by very few outside of Ohio. But both are pitching really well this season and the success will continue for each hurler tonight. Maddux continues to pitch well despite his advancing age, posting a 3.67 ERA and 1.13 ERA in seven starts this year. He hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs in any start this year and has allowed just six earned runs in three home starts this season.
Belisle has been equally impressive this year. He boasts a 3.45 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and has surrendered one or fewer runs in four of his five starts this year. Belisle has been especially tough on the road where he has allowed just two earned runs in 15 innings.
Neither the Red nor Padre offenses has been hitting too well this year either as both teams are in the bottom third of baseball in batting average. San Diego has averaged just three runs per game over its last eight outings in going under the total in seven of those eight contests. The Padres have been really bad in their home stadium where they are hitting just .227 on the year. Cincinnati is hitting just .244 on the road so scoring should be at a premium. Take the under with Belisle and Maddux pitching.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->Billy Coleman
4 Phillies
3 Nationals
Jimmy Broadway
500* Oakland A's Run line
300* Pittsburgh
Frank Rosenthal
954 PIRATES-120 SB
956 PHILLY-120 SB
964 RANGERS+105 SB
970 A'S-170 SB
Monday Service Plays from Bookie Buster:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<o></o>
Las Vegas Pipeline
20 Star Super Play
K.c Royals/oak. Athletics
Under The Total (7.5)
Listed Pitchers Meche/haren
Monday Comps.
<o></o>
Sebastian-Florida
Winner Line-Dodgers
OTM-Dodgers
Computer Boys-Angels
Bill Allen-Oakland
Feiner-Pitt.
Trev Rogers
<o></o>
Orioles -130
Brewers +110
Winner Line
<o></o>
Dodgers
OTM<o></o>
<o></o>
Dodgers
Ethan Law
965 DET (+145) vs 966 BOS
Analysis: DET: LHP Nate Robertson (3-2, 3.43 ERA) vs. BOS: RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka (4-2, 4.80 ERA)
The best game available on today's short card looks to be the Tigers. Despite last night's loss to the Twins, they remain one of the hottest teams in the AL (7-2, +$485 last 10 days, averaging 7.0 runs per game over that span). The Detroit Tigers have sprinted to the top of the AL Central, bringing one of the league's best run-producing offenses along for the ride. The Tigers have scored 194 runs this season, more than any team in baseball not named the Yankees or Red Sox. The Tigers have been a solid road team against right-handers (9-5, +$475) and so far Daisuke Matsuzaka has been inconsistent (6.00 ERA last two outings). Matsuzaka, has pitched far better on the road, will be looking for his first signature gem at Fenway Park. In his best home start, on April 11, he allowed three earned runs in seven innings, but Mariners phenom Felix Hernandez stole the show with a one-hitter. Since then, Matsuzaka has been touched for 13 runs in 12 innings at Fenway. The Red Sox won yesterday thanks to a miracle six run ninth inning, so they're primed for a letdown against this non-divisional foe. Take the generous price on Nate Robertson in this showdown of division leaders.
Verdict: Detroit 6, Boston 3
PLAY 1* UNIT ON DETROIT +$145
954 PIT / 953 FLA Over 8
Analysis: FLA: LHP Dontrelle Willis (5-2, 5.40) vs. PIT: LHP Tom Gorzelanny (4-2, 2.72)
Leg one of their three-city, 10-game road trip ended on a sour note for the Marlins. Swept in three games at Washington, the Marlins head to Pittsburgh for a four-game series beginning on Monday at PNC Park. Monday marks the first of seven games against the Pirates this season. Historically, Florida has struggled with Pittsburgh, posting a 54-65 record, including a 21-41 mark on the road, so there goes really any possibility of backing the only supportable side in this series. However, I think the Mr. lines maker made a big mistake in posted this total at just 8 runs. Dontrelle Willis (5.40 ERA) has been an OVER pitcher this season as 7 out of 8 have gone in that direction. 8-5-5-4-4 is the number of earned runs he has allowed in his last five starts and the Pirates are at their best against left-handers this season averaging over 3.7 runs per game at home. Meanwhile, the Pirates Tom Gorzelanny has an impressive ERA of 2.72 but the Marlins hit left-handed pitching well (.279 team BA) and have the NL's second-highest slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. Indeed, the Marlins come into this match-up averaging 5.7 runs per game in night/road contests against left-handed pitching. So in the dark these teams are averaging 9.4 runs per contest. Factor in the fact that 4 of Gorzelannys last five starts have been on the road he might experience some added pressure in his home environment. All good things come to an end!
Verdict: Florida 7, Pittsburgh 4
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MARLINS/PIRATES OVER 8 -$110
Nick Jones
Florida Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB)
Play: Money Line: -114 Pittsburgh Pirates
ZION SPORTS
Free Pick: Florida @ Pittsburgh-110. 7:05 pm est.
hoping they've finally gotten their anemic offense in gear, the pittsburgh pirates look to build off a big day at the plate when they open a four-game series with the slumping florida marlins and dontrelle willis, pittsburgh wins-110
BUD'S WISER PICKS
Bonus Play
BALTIMORE
Alex Anthony
BRAVES -180
METS -142
A's -170
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
></o>Las Vegas Pipeline
20 Star Super Play
K.c Royals/oak. Athletics
Under The Total (7.5)
Listed Pitchers Meche/haren
Monday Comps.
<o
></o>Sebastian-Florida
Winner Line-Dodgers
OTM-Dodgers
Computer Boys-Angels
Bill Allen-Oakland
Feiner-Pitt.
Trev Rogers
<o
></o>Orioles -130
Brewers +110
Winner Line
<o
></o>Dodgers
OTM<o
></o><o
></o>Dodgers
Ethan Law
965 DET (+145) vs 966 BOS
Analysis: DET: LHP Nate Robertson (3-2, 3.43 ERA) vs. BOS: RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka (4-2, 4.80 ERA)
The best game available on today's short card looks to be the Tigers. Despite last night's loss to the Twins, they remain one of the hottest teams in the AL (7-2, +$485 last 10 days, averaging 7.0 runs per game over that span). The Detroit Tigers have sprinted to the top of the AL Central, bringing one of the league's best run-producing offenses along for the ride. The Tigers have scored 194 runs this season, more than any team in baseball not named the Yankees or Red Sox. The Tigers have been a solid road team against right-handers (9-5, +$475) and so far Daisuke Matsuzaka has been inconsistent (6.00 ERA last two outings). Matsuzaka, has pitched far better on the road, will be looking for his first signature gem at Fenway Park. In his best home start, on April 11, he allowed three earned runs in seven innings, but Mariners phenom Felix Hernandez stole the show with a one-hitter. Since then, Matsuzaka has been touched for 13 runs in 12 innings at Fenway. The Red Sox won yesterday thanks to a miracle six run ninth inning, so they're primed for a letdown against this non-divisional foe. Take the generous price on Nate Robertson in this showdown of division leaders.
Verdict: Detroit 6, Boston 3
PLAY 1* UNIT ON DETROIT +$145
954 PIT / 953 FLA Over 8
Analysis: FLA: LHP Dontrelle Willis (5-2, 5.40) vs. PIT: LHP Tom Gorzelanny (4-2, 2.72)
Leg one of their three-city, 10-game road trip ended on a sour note for the Marlins. Swept in three games at Washington, the Marlins head to Pittsburgh for a four-game series beginning on Monday at PNC Park. Monday marks the first of seven games against the Pirates this season. Historically, Florida has struggled with Pittsburgh, posting a 54-65 record, including a 21-41 mark on the road, so there goes really any possibility of backing the only supportable side in this series. However, I think the Mr. lines maker made a big mistake in posted this total at just 8 runs. Dontrelle Willis (5.40 ERA) has been an OVER pitcher this season as 7 out of 8 have gone in that direction. 8-5-5-4-4 is the number of earned runs he has allowed in his last five starts and the Pirates are at their best against left-handers this season averaging over 3.7 runs per game at home. Meanwhile, the Pirates Tom Gorzelanny has an impressive ERA of 2.72 but the Marlins hit left-handed pitching well (.279 team BA) and have the NL's second-highest slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. Indeed, the Marlins come into this match-up averaging 5.7 runs per game in night/road contests against left-handed pitching. So in the dark these teams are averaging 9.4 runs per contest. Factor in the fact that 4 of Gorzelannys last five starts have been on the road he might experience some added pressure in his home environment. All good things come to an end!
Verdict: Florida 7, Pittsburgh 4
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MARLINS/PIRATES OVER 8 -$110
Nick Jones
Florida Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB)
Play: Money Line: -114 Pittsburgh Pirates
ZION SPORTS
Free Pick: Florida @ Pittsburgh-110. 7:05 pm est.
hoping they've finally gotten their anemic offense in gear, the pittsburgh pirates look to build off a big day at the plate when they open a four-game series with the slumping florida marlins and dontrelle willis, pittsburgh wins-110
BUD'S WISER PICKS
Bonus Play
BALTIMORE
Alex Anthony
BRAVES -180
METS -142
A's -170
Bookie Buster MLB 5/14 Record:12-10-1
Lines at Bodog:
953 Florida Marlins +110
Dontrelle Willis (L)
956 Philadelphia Phillies -120
Jamie Moyer (L)
963 Los Angeles Dodgers -142
Brett Tomko (R)
966 Boston Red Sox -171
Daisuke Matsuzaka (R)
Good Luck,
BB
Lines at Bodog:
953 Florida Marlins +110
Dontrelle Willis (L)
956 Philadelphia Phillies -120
Jamie Moyer (L)
963 Los Angeles Dodgers -142
Brett Tomko (R)
966 Boston Red Sox -171
Daisuke Matsuzaka (R)
Good Luck,
BB
Lines at Bodog:
953 Florida Marlins +110
Dontrelle Willis (L)
956 Philadelphia Phillies -120
Jamie Moyer (L)
963 Los Angeles Dodgers -142
Brett Tomko (R)
966 Boston Red Sox -171
Daisuke Matsuzaka (R)
Good Luck,
BB
BOL tonight BB
My Plays for Monday 5~14~7:
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ATL ML (5 Innings) –165
ATL ML –161
MIL OVER 9 –115
DET +1.5 RL –145
<o
Season Record…….80~47~1…..+31.42 units
In case anyone is wondering, I saw a thread this weekend where people were making a huge stink about cappers not posting their units.
In truth, I have been playing my 5-Inning plays at 3 units and sometimes 4 units. I have also been playing some of my personal "best bets" at that same unit level. My smallest plays are all for 2 units each.
So, to be fair, since I have not been indicating unit levels, let alone varying levels with different types of plays, I went back and calculated every single play of mine at the 2 unit level.
If a line is -115, I play it for $200 to make $173.91
If a line is -161, I play it for $200 to make $124.22
And if a line is +105, I paly it for $200 to make $210
Monday Service Plays from Bookie Buster:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<o></o>
Culver
Sides
Nationals +153
Pirates -123
Phillies -116
Cubs +136
Dodgers -136
Tigers +148
Royals +165
Totals
Chicago-NY OVER 8 1/2 -110 (Marquis-Glavine)
KC-Oakland UNDER 7 1/2 +110 (Meche-Haren)
<o></o>
<!-- / message -->
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
></o>Culver
Sides
Nationals +153
Pirates -123
Phillies -116
Cubs +136
Dodgers -136
Tigers +148
Royals +165
Totals
Chicago-NY OVER 8 1/2 -110 (Marquis-Glavine)
KC-Oakland UNDER 7 1/2 +110 (Meche-Haren)
<o
></o><!-- / message -->
Monday Service Plays from Bookie Buster:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<o></o>
Izzy, formerly of Vegas Pipeline
<o></o>
Pirates
Cubs
Tigers
Chris Jordan <o></o>
<o></o>
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->1000 San Diego
200 Blue Jays
Charlie <o></o>
<o></o>
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->la angels-125 (10*)
phillies-115 (10*) Bonus Play
Neri <o></o>
<o></o>
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Oakland
<!-- / message -->
Ed Redmon
3* DET
3* PIT
3* PHI
2* OAK
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
></o>Izzy, formerly of Vegas Pipeline
<o
></o>Pirates
Cubs
Tigers
Chris Jordan <o
></o><o
></o><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->1000 San Diego
200 Blue Jays
Charlie <o
></o><o
></o><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->la angels-125 (10*)
phillies-115 (10*) Bonus Play
Neri <o
></o><o
></o><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Oakland
<!-- / message -->
Ed Redmon
3* DET
3* PIT
3* PHI
2* OAK
