Jibba's Monday MLB

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Money Lines:

Favorites: 93-46 for +28.11 units
Underdogs: 29-26 +10.55 units
Total: 122-72 for +38.66 units

Run Lines: 3-3 +0.88 units

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Well I had a slightly rough day before going away for the weekend, but was able to keep the loss minimal. Went 5-4 for -1.18 units. Hoping to get back on track today, but there are some tough games out there today. I can't post any of my plays just yet, but I do have one or two that are all but finished. Just wanted to get my record and thread all set because I'll be working on limited time today.

BOL to everone on their cards today. Be back in a few.
 

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Thanks guys.

Pittsburgh -109: This young Florida team is a great fade right now. The public is still holding onto the image of them as an offensive powerhouse, which they are not. They've got a lot of great young bats, but as I've said before, they'll be very prone for cold droughts during the season. This is obviously one of them, having been swept over the weekend by the lowly Nats. And they were playing very poorly leading up to that series. Now, if Dontrelle weren't starting tonight, Florida would have been a much bigger underdog. But does Willis really deserve that kind of respect this year, or is it just more about public perception based on the past? In my opinion, it is certainly the latter. Sure, Willis is 5-2 and going for the NL lead in wins tonight, but he's done it largely with smoke and mirrors. Over his last 5 starts, spanning 31 innings, Willis has allowed 23 earned runs. He allowed at least 4 in each of those starts. The starter that we see today with a 5.40 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a .291 BAA is not the Dontrelle Willis that much of the public remembers from 2 years ago. And now he's going on the road to face a Pirates team that has a much better offense than they're given credit for (one that, albeit, has not lived up to expectations so far this year).

Pittsburgh sends Tom Gorzelanny to the hill today, and unlike Willis, he has been the real deal so far this year, shutting down offenses like the Cubs, the Brewers, and the Dodgers. Aside from a bump in the road against the Reds, Gorzelanny has not given up more than 3 runs in a game all season. And he's going deep into games, having gone 7 or more 4 times so far this year. With the way Florida's offense has been playing recently, I think Gorzelanny is going to be an extremely tough challenge. Line is at VIP. 1.64 units to win 1.5.
 

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Philadelphia -116: It feels strange to go against the Brewers in this spot considering that Howard is out, but I have to take the crafty old Moyer over the struggling Dave Bush here. A pitcher like Moyer is exactly the kind of guy you like to throw against a young offense like that of the Brewers. At this point, there's no arguing with what Moyer's numbers. He's getting it done this year in solid fashion, and even though the Brewers have hit lefties well this year, I really don't like how they matchup against him tonight.

I was a big backer of Dave Bush coming into this season. But there's no debating that he hasn't had the success that was expected of him so far. He's got an ERA of just under 6 on the year and has looked bad against offenses much worse than that of the Phillies, even without Howard. On the road, Bush sports an ERA of 6.61, a WHIP of 1.78, and a BAA of .406. I think it's a great spot to fade the Brewers, even as a slight underdog. 1.16 units to win 1.

__________________________________________

Current leans include the Cubs, Padres, Dodgers, Angels, Orioles, and Royals. Lines on the favorites have really dropped in the past 2 or 3 hours, and I'm really starting to like a few of them. Be back in a bit.
 

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LA Angels -105: This is one of the lines that has dropped quite a bit since this morning, and I think there's some good value in them at this price. As most know, LA has dominated the Rangers over the past couple years, going 31-13 against them since 2005. This year they've started right where they left off, going 5-1 against them so far this year. While I'm not a big fan of betting the Angels on the road, this spot is a solid one IMO. For the Angels, Jered Weaver is slowly starting to regain some of his success of last year. In his last 3 starts, spanning 17.2 IPs, Weaver has given up only 4 earned runs while striking out 19. I look for him to continue that success against a weak Rangers offense.

Kevin Milwood comes off the DL to start for Texas today. And that is one of my favorite spots to fade a pitcher. Even before the injury, Milwood was not having much success, having given up 5 runs in 3 straight starts (16.2 IPs). With an ERA of 5.88, a WHIP of 1.72, and a BAA of .307, I don't doubt he'll have problems against this Angels offense. 1.05 units to win 1.
 

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Atlanta -162: Another game where the line on the favorite has dropped a considerable amount in the past 4 hours or so. I'm not quite sure why this number has dropped, but I certainly won't complain. The Nats swept Florida over the weekend, and maybe that has some of the public taking notice of them. But this is a horrible spot for them. Smoltz has faced the Nats twice already this year and has given up 10 hits and 4 earned runs in 14 innings. Over his career, spanning 36 starts (and 63 total appearances), Smoltz has a 2.68 ERA, a .106 WHIP, and a .220 BAA against the Nats. Simply put, he pitches very well against Washington. Furthermore, Smoltz has been at his best over the past 2 weeks or so. In his last 3 starts, spanning 21 innings, he's given up only 4 earned runs while striking out 21.

People who have read my writeups this season know I'm pretty high on Bergmann. But there's no question he's not in the class of guys like Smoltz. And he's got a huge problem that most pitchers don't have . . . that being a horrible bullpen which seems to constantly blow up after he puts up 6 solid innings. Considering that the Braves offense has finally started coming back around again over the past few games, I think they might be a tough challenge for Bergmann, and certainly for that Washington bullpen. And Atlanta has certainly proven that they can win on the road this year, putting up an 11-6 record away from home thus far. 1.62 units to win 1.
 

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Baltimore -128: Despite yesterday's heartbreaking loss, the O's are clearly the better team right now. The Jays were lucky enough to host Tampa Bay over the weekend, and were able to pull out 2 of 3, but they are still the team that lost 9 or so straight last week. Over the past 7 days, Baltimore is hitting .289 (5th in MLB), while Toronto is hitting a measly .222 (26th in the league). And the the Jays have a far tougher challenge ahead of them tonight against Erik Bedard. Bedard has looked great in his last 2 starts, allowing 6 hits and 2 earned runs over 13 innings while striking out 14. Toronto has the 7th most strikeouts in baseball and should have trouble against Bedard, who is 4th in baseball with 56 strikeouts (2nd in the AL). While he's put up an ugly ERA on the road so far this year, if we take out his horrible opening day start against the Twins, he's given up 17 hits and 11 earned runs in 18.2 innings against Cleveland, Tampa (during their power stretch) and NYY. Toronto can't come close to competing with those offenses, certainly not the way they're swinging the bat lately.

The O's are a very impressive 11-6 against AL East opponents (3-0 against TB) and I see no reason why this won't continue against a slumping Toronto team that just can't seem to get on base (miniscule .288 OBP over the last 7 days). This line on Bedard, who is a legitimate ace, is just too low IMO. 1.28 units to win 1.

__________________________________________________

Pretty close to a play on the Padres, but still holding it back for a bit until I get a bit more time to look at a few last angles. BOL to everyone today.
 

xej

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Ready to cash with your picks. Good luck today !
:money8:
 
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with you on angels Jibba..wish I waited till this morning... I placed my bet last night and got it at -123... GL with your plays today man
 

Solomon Alabi - The Next Big Thing
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Good luck Jibba...following you on all of them. Missed you Sat/Sunday for picks.


Kotchman with a GS in top 1st...4-0 LAA
 

Where Taconite Is Just A Low Grade Ore
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Just Started Reading You

the last wk. Very nice WU`s, appreciate all the hard work that goes into it. Thereby saving lazy old bastards like me from overworking, NOT! I`m very big on Moyer today, tho Mil has been very good to me. Waiting for this wkend as my Twins go into that lions den. Watch Sat. as this was Ponson`s spot, they`ll start a rook. I am on LAA, looks good so far. Think your Pitt pic is also the right side. BOL pal.
 

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Thanks for the good wishes guys. Glad to be back. Here's hoping we cash these today. :toast: And dcs, hopefully the Angels will hold onto the early lead and the line you got won't make a difference anyways.

San Diego -129: I don't know if the public is eating up the dogs today or what, but this is yet another line on a favorite that had dropped a considerable amount since I first looked at them this morning. At -140 or -145, San Diego was a possible play for me. At -133, they're a clear play. Greg Maddux beat the Reds 5 times last season, and looks to bump his streak to 6 straight tonight. In those 5 matchups, Maddux allowed 22 hits (8 came in one appearance) and only 8 runs in 30 innings. Maddux has always been a better starter at home than on the road (although the difference isn't huge) and the Reds batted only .208 in Petco last year. San Diego has played well at home this year, while the Reds have been less than mediocre on the road, and I see no reason not to continue riding the Padres in the month of May (although they haven't lived up to my expectations, they are a solid 4-1 at home in May so far). In fact, the way Maddux handled the Reds last year, I wouldn't be surprised to see them notch their 6th shutout at home this year (3 in last 5 home games, and an MLB best 6 total). Of course, I'm hoping they don't need it.

Matt Belisle has been very solid this year, especially in his 2 starts on the road, but I just don't think he can keep it up. So far this year he's thrown 44.1 innings. Last year he pitched a total of 40 innings. The year before that he pitched 85.2. So I have to wonder how long he can really keep this up for. In my experience, I've found that not too many relievers can make the transition to starter and succeed for long periods of time. I like the value with the Padres and Maddux in this one. 1.33 units to win 1.
 

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Looks like another big card for me today, but why mess with success? Put in a lot of time with these and think I have the right sides.

Chicago (NL) +140: As great as the Mets have been this year, I think this line is too high. Up until this past weekend (Thursday to be exact), the Cubs had been on a tear (winning 9 of 11). They ran into a tough spot in Philly and the public seems to have abandoned them as quickly as they jumped on board during their hot run. Now tonight they head into New York, where the Mets have been less than stellar (a mediocre 9-8, and conversely the Cubs are actually playing better on the road this year). This one screams of a pitching duel, as the Cubs send 5-1 Jason Marquis against the Mets' 4-1 Tom Glavine. Both pitchers have been extremely solid this year, but Marquis has really turned it on lately, giving up only 7 hits and 1 earned run in his last 2 starts (17 innings) while striking out 10 and walking none. Marquis has also only given up 2 HRs so far this year, which is definitely a good stat for someone facing the Mets.

Glavine has been extremely solid so far this year, but I don't see any reason to give him the nod in the pitching matchup tonight. He's got an ERA just under 3, but it's still well over a full run higher than Marquis's so far (1.70). Some of these Cubbies have hit Glavine in the past (e.g., Ramirez is 10 for 20 with 3 HRs) and I think they'll be pumped to do it again on the national stage tonight. I just feel like this one will be a coin flip, and I'll flip a coin getting +140 any day of the week. Line is at VIP. 1 unit to win 1.40.
 

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Need your thoughts on the Royals, thax.

It's definitely a tough one to cap. While I am leaning toward staying away from this one, I think I'm in the minority in leaning toward KC. For all the talk about how great Meche is at home, we're talking about a guy who has yet to give up an earned run on the road. He does allow more baserunners on the road, but Oakland's offense is weaker than average IMO so that shouldn't be as much of a problem. But KC is just not a good road team. And Haren has nasty stuff so I could certainly see him shutting down the Royals. But getting +170 or so would be the way I would go.

If for some reason the KC line starts to skyrocket, I'd jump on it more likely than not. I'm also looking into the Sox/Tigers game a bit more. Leaning toward staying way from the Dodgers play. Aside from that, this will likely be my final card, although I may add a bit to a couple of these plays depending on line movement, lineups, or a number of other factors.
 

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Lee and Aramis are game time decisions. Soriano got banged up but Pinella says he is ok. I'm gonna wait for the lineups on this game.
 

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Lee and Aramis are game time decisions. Soriano got banged up but Pinella says he is ok. I'm gonna wait for the lineups on this game.

I think Ramirez and Soriano are safe bets to play, while Lee is much more up in the air. He'll be pushing hard to be in that lineup, although it would definitely not be a good thing for my play if he ends up sitting for this one. Thanks for the info though. BOL tonight.
 

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Added half a unit on Philly (-112), Atlanta (-160), and San Diego (-135).

Final card:

LA Angels: 1.05 units to win 1.
Pittsburgh: 1.64 units to win 1.5.
Philadelphia: 1.68 units to win 1.5.
Atlanta: 2.42 units to win 1.5.
San Diego: 2.01 units to win 1.5.
Baltimore: 1.28 units to win 1.
Chicago (NL): 1 unit to win 1.40.


BOL to everyone on their cards tonight.
 

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