Jibba's Wednesday MLB

Jibba · May 16, 2007

Money Lines:

Favorites: 95-50 for +22.76 units
Underdogs: 29-29 +7.55 units
Total: 122-72 for +30.31 units

Run Lines: 3-3 +0.88 units

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I'm not going to dwell on yesterday. It was my worst day of the season. I was just wrong on a lot of those games, and in the close ones I didn't catch any breaks. I'm sorry to anyone who listened to me on those. Been busting my ass this morning to make up for it by getting back on track. Like today's card.

Atlanta -133: The Braves have been solid away from home this year (12-7). And although I spent the first few weeks fading Davies, I'm now going to make it 2 in a row on him. I don't all of a sudden think he's a solid pitcher, but he's certainly better than the reliever the Nats are throwing out there tonight. While I don't think there are many lineups in baseball that Davies can handle, I think this is definitely one of them. Davies pitched 5 innings of 4-hit, 1-run ball in Washington in his only start against the Nats last year. And he's coming off his best start of the season to go against a team that can not hit or score, even at home. And although he hasn't faced many of the Nats' batters, the only one that has hit him is on the DL (Johnson).

As if Washington didn't have enough trouble with their pitching staff. Now they have to take a reliever out of that great pen they have (snicker) to fill in as a starter tonight? And one that has walked twice as many batters as he's struck out? I just don't see him keeping this Braves lineup quiet, even with Chipper out of the lineup. We saw them get back on the offensive track last night and I think it continues tonight away from home, where their offense has played very well this year. 2 units to win 1.5.

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Also have a likely 1.5 unit play on San Diego tonight. Love the Pads in this spot. Just waiting to see what line I can get. I missed -168 on VIP by seconds and I'm hoping I can get something better than -180 on Matchbook.

Leans on Pitt, Philly, Chicago (NL), San Fran, LAD, Minnesota, Baltimore, and LAA. Just need some time to put them together.

Jibba · May 16, 2007

San Diego -174: Love the Padres in this spot. Peavy is the best pitcher in baseball right now IMO. And he owns the Reds, going 4-0 in 6 starts during his career with a 1.90 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a .197 BAA. Although the Padres haven't lived up to my expectations recently, they've been solid at home this year. The Reds, on the other hand, have been pretty bad on the road, going 8-12 with a road BA and OBP right around the bottom of the league.

Bronson Arroyo goes for the Reds tonight and I still believe he is overvalued. And even despite his solid ratios this year, he's still 2-3 and the Reds are 2-6 in games he's started (the numbers that really count). And we all know why. Because the Reds are a bad team that can't hold a lead, and love to waste 6 inning, 6 hit, 2 run performances by their starters and lose 2-0 like they did in Bronson's last start. The Padres have hit Arroyo fairly well in the past and I really think they get to him enough to make this easy on Peavy. Against this Reds team on the road, I'd likely pay -200 in this spot. 2.61 units to win 1.5.

Jibba · May 16, 2007

Going to add a few here with only a little blurb, as I'm short on time and want to get these in.

Arizona -111: Webb is heating up and Cook has a 7.28 ERA over his last 5 starts against the D-Backs (they are also batting .302 against him lifetime). 1.68 units to win 1.5.

LA Dodgers -145: Dodgers are at home, playing well, and facing Kip Wells, a constant fade of mine, who has given up 25 earned runs over his last 4 starts (21 IPs). Wolf has been very solid this year aside from 2 starts. 1.45 units to win 1.

Philadelphia -134: Phillies have hit Suppan extremely hard in his career (7.04 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and .337 BAA in 8 career starts). Brewers have to be hurting after 2 straight tough losses. Hamels will give this suddenly struggling offense a lot of trouble. And the Brewers, despite all their success this year, have played .500 ball on the road. 1.34 units to win 1.

LA Angels -131: After a big day offensively yesterday, I definitely see the M's falling back to Earth against John Lackey, who has quietly become one of the best pitchers in the AL. I think he gets his 3rd straight road win tonight. 1.31 units to win 1.

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All favorites so far today, but very solid ones IMO. With Sampson now in for Houston, I'm leaning away from the San Fran play. Still have to give that one some thought. Lots of work still left on the AL side, and I'm currently leaning toward an early play on the White Sox. BOL to everyone on today's card.

DRays82 · May 16, 2007

Love all the plays Jibba. We will get them back tonight!

Jibba · May 16, 2007

Thanks DRays. Hope so.

As sick as it is to say, if your boys get to +120 (currently +115 on MB) I'm going to have to seriously consider playing them. No reason at all that Texas should be favored in that game considering how bad they are on the road, especially with Padilla hurling. At very least, Fossum looked good in his last home start. Part of me hopes that line doesn't move though because I don't want to have to follow what may be a very ugly game tonight.

Still have a few plays I like and am just waiting to see where the line ends up on the White Sox. I think people are too quick to annoint Mussina the savior of the Yankees' pitching staff.

DRays82 · May 16, 2007

Well, here is some stats:

Fossum is 3-1 with a 5.05 era
Rangers have lost 8 of their last 11 road games to the Rays.
Rangers have scored 3 runs of fewer in 12 of there last 16 games.

Rangers are talking how they need a big win streak. Looking to far ahead, trying to do to much, which ends up doing nothin.

If the Rays keep falling, Ill take a chance on them. Also Badelli is out, which is a good thing. He was like 1-37 in his last 9 games

Loren78 · May 16, 2007

With you 200 percent!!!!!! on the D-Backs...Kip Wells...that poor fella...

Dr.Swamee · May 16, 2007

Lik the write-ups. Good Luck Jibba!

Jibba · May 16, 2007

DRays82 said:
Well, here is some stats:

Fossum is 3-1 with a 5.05 era
Rangers have lost 8 of their last 11 road games to the Rays.
Rangers have scored 3 runs of fewer in 12 of there last 16 games.

Rangers are talking how they need a big win streak. Looking to far ahead, trying to do to much, which ends up doing nothin.

If the Rays keep falling, Ill take a chance on them. Also Badelli is out, which is a good thing. He was like 1-37 in his last 9 games

Thanks DRays. If it hits +125 (currently +117) I think I'll take a stab. Too much respect for the Rangers on the road because of a public perception of Fossum, although I can't see why he'd be ranked any lower than Padilla.

DRays82 · May 16, 2007

Terminator20 said:
GL-

hope you dont suck donkey balls like yesterday.

-$500.

Then cap your own fucking plays man.

Jibba · May 16, 2007

Chicago (AL) +155: Lineups are out and Giambi and Cano are out of the lineup for a slumping Yankees offense. The line is high because the public continues to believe that the Yankees will eventually just snap out of it and roll off 10 straight wins. But the way they've been playing, that is a long ways away. Moose is getting too much credit as the savior of NY's rotation IMO so I'll roll the dice with the dog. 1 unit to win 1.55.

Jibba · May 16, 2007

Terminator20 said:
GL-

hope you dont suck donkey balls like yesterday.

-$500.

So do I dude. Just hope that you'll have the courtesy to make positive comments on days that I do win, which have been the large majority this year.

Thanks DRays.

CalvinTy · May 16, 2007

Jibba said:
Chicago (AL) +155: Lineups are out and Giambi and Cano are out of the lineup for a slumping Yankees offense. The line is high because the public continues to believe that the Yankees will eventually just snap out of it and roll off 10 straight wins. But the way they've been playing, that is a long ways away. Moose is getting too much credit as the savior of NY's rotation IMO so I'll roll the dice with the dog. 1 unit to win 1.55.

That's what I see as well. I did like CWS last night before it got rained out. GL on all your plays!

* CalvinTy

Jibba · May 16, 2007

CalvinTy said:
That's what I see as well. I did like CWS last night before it got rained out. GL on all your plays!

* CalvinTy

Same here but last night I could only get +145 so I decided to stay off. Told myself that if I could get +155 - 160 today I'd take 'em. Missed the line when it was at +160, but still got my target. BOL Calvin. :toast:

BigMike56 · May 16, 2007

Good to see you are on the Braves too. I really like the Dodgers play myself, another team that is to much better than the team they are facing to lose the series. Plus Wells = 1-8 !

SonnySixKill · May 16, 2007

Got the WSox at +157 on bodog.

mulhs · May 16, 2007

Jibba said:
Thanks DRays. Hope so.

As sick as it is to say, if your boys get to +120 (currently +115 on MB) I'm going to have to seriously consider playing them. No reason at all that Texas should be favored in that game considering how bad they are on the road, especially with Padilla hurling. At very least, Fossum looked good in his last home start. Part of me hopes that line doesn't move though because I don't want to have to follow what may be a very ugly game tonight.

Still have a few plays I like and am just waiting to see where the line ends up on the White Sox. I think people are too quick to annoint Mussina the savior of the Yankees' pitching staff.

I like the D-rays in this game myself. I saw Padilla pitch for a couple years here in Philly and never really liked him. He's a headcase if he doesn't get a call or two.

I'm also with you on the Phils, although this might be a bit of a homer pick with the last couple of big wins in fairly dramatic fashion. But Hamels has been awesome with few exceptions this season, and with momentum behind the team I like him in this spot.

With you on the Dodgers as well.

Thanks for the write up, BOL and let's bounce back strong tonight

Jibba · May 16, 2007

Just want to get this out before posting my next play. Generally, the good cappers I've known have stuck to the rule of fewer plays = more success. I do agree that that is the norm. For me though, at least in baseball, I have run into trouble when I try to pick and choose between games that I see value in. You can see this by looking at the few 2 unit plays I've made this year (1-3 I believe, although my 1.5 unit plays have done well). I can usually hit a very solid amount of games by playing large cards, but I am not here advocating everyone to play every play that I do. I offer my opinion, best I can, on every game I play. I figure that is the best way for me to give back to this forum, which has been very good to me. Information . . . not as some great capper that everyone can follow on 7-10 plays a night. Most people I see in my threads disagree with a play or two (or more), and I really appreciate the differing opinions. So with that said, I have another big play.

Boston -135: There are so many reasons for liking this game in my opinion. Despite last night's loss, Boston has won 14 of 18 against Detroit in Fenway, where Boston is a very solid 12-6 this year. Boston's offense is #1 in baseball at home this year (and off the top of my head, I believe over all). Overall, they've won 11 of their last 15.

Today they get to face old friend Mike Maroth, who is an impressive 3-0 this year (and it should be noted the Tigers have won every one of his starts). But he's doing it in ugly fashion, having given up 54 hits in 40.1 innings. He's been putting up an average of 5-6 innings per game, and he no longer has relief phenom Zumaya to back him up. Plus, in his 5 road starts this year opponents are batting .333 against him and his WHIP is up around 1.80. That's not going to cut it against a Red Sox team that is hitting this well and that has absolutely owned Maroth during his career. In 7 career starts against Boston, Maroth is 0-6 with a 7.22 ERA, a 2.09 WHIP, and a .351 BAA. Manny Ramirez and Jason Varitek have hit him very hard, and considering that Manny is just now starting to heat up (like every other year), I see him having a big night. I've been solid on my Red Sox plays this year and this is not a homer play. But I gotta go with yet another fav tonight. I understand it's Julian Tavarez that I'm putting my play on, but I really like the Sox to pull this one out tonight. 2.03 units to win 1.5.

Jibba · May 16, 2007

mulhs said:
I like the D-rays in this game myself. I saw Padilla pitch for a couple years here in Philly and never really liked him. He's a headcase if he doesn't get a call or two.

I'm also with you on the Phils, although this might be a bit of a homer pick with the last couple of big wins in fairly dramatic fashion. But Hamels has been awesome with few exceptions this season, and with momentum behind the team I like him in this spot.

With you on the Dodgers as well.

Thanks for the write up, BOL and let's bounce back strong tonight

Thanks man. I may even think more highly of Hamels than you do. The kid is just nasty and still what, like 22 or 23? I really like that one because I think the Brewers don't know how to react to a few tough losses. They've become accustomed to big wins and big winning streaks. Hope you boys up in Philly give 'em hell tonight.

Hope we cash the Dodgers. Are you playing the D-Rays tonight? I'm getting the feeling that they're going to hit my target of +125 (currently +118 and constantly rising). BOL tonight.

Sonny,

Hope we cash those Chi Sox. Nice easy first inning for Danks with 2 Ks.

BigMike,

Good to see you on the Dodgers and Braves. Going to consider making LAD a 1.5 unit play, but only if the line stays right where it is. BOL.

GoSteelers248 · May 16, 2007

hey Jibba... GL with your plays.. IMO for boston game, it's eithr over or no play. Maroth has 3-0 despite the fact that he has been given runs to other teams...which means Maroth so far got lots of run supports.... and for Bos, I just can't trust Tavarez...so i think it might be better to play over in this game...