OK, been watching this, so I'll throw it out there.
RULES ARE:
Find the pitching matchup where a pitcher has ALL these on his side (then we will get to the ML movement) MUST have all to qualify:
1. Better ERA overall AND better ERA last three outings
2. MORE complete innings pitched, overall AND last three (combine them)
3. Better TEAM Won AND Loss record (BOTH!) ex: 5-1 vs. 2-4
4. Better INDIVIDUAL Won-Loss record (both)
MUST HAVE ALL TO GO TO NEXT STEP.
Then = check OVERNIGHT LINE vs. OPENING LINE (I use covers.com opening line), then current sportsbook line, pinny, sb.com, etc.
You should get something like this:
SDP (Peavy) -180(overnite) -170 (opening) then -168 current as of 9:00am CST.
Now, track for support or lack of support. PEAVY meets ALL of the top 4 criteria, now I'm looking for ML support for back-up or lack of support to get a play. Here is his ML motion up to 3:00pm CST.
-180, -170, -168, [-173], and at 3:00pm, -185!
That is what I'm looking for. Meets all the above criteria, then his ML moves over and above the opening line by +15 and +5 over the overnight line. SOLID motion.
So, i've had some dull time today, and here are the candidates for WED's action using this. REMEMBER, this is something like a work-in-progress, so don't go hating or crapping on me, because I'm not ringing it up as gospel or infinite wisdom. It's just something that I've been tracking that has a look I would call "promising".
All these lines as of 3:00pm CST, I use sb.com for the available lines. All these pitchers meet the criteria above and have line movement in support, the more upticks (or downticks against fav), the better. I have a number beside each one which I will explain later, the higher the number, the better the play, but take it lightly as I am tweaking this due to a number of variables involving 'weighting' issues, era, wl, diffy stuff.
LAD (Wolf) -155 (+21) watch this ML, it is on the uptick, no play if it goes down ANY, would like to see it around 160-170 closer to GT.
OAK (Blanton) -215 (+16)
ARZ (Webb) -122 (+13)
SDP (Peavy) -185 (+15)
DET (Maroth) +128 (+20) watch line on this game, no play if it goes above +130, would like to see it drop to +120 or so.
FLA (Olson) +100 (+5) This has a FIVE-increment drop from -135 to -109, Olson looks like a play at this time.
TEX (Padilla) -118 (+3) this is an extra 'maybe' game due to the BIG shift in the ML from TAM -105, to TEX -118. Might be worth a look, even tho Padilla doesn't meet the criteria exactly, his opponent is awful. Big shift in ML here.
So, let's see how it does. Watch the lines closely on LAD & DET, they may be no-plays.
Just thought I'd toss out what I'm doing.
GL tonight to all,
US
:toast:
RULES ARE:
Find the pitching matchup where a pitcher has ALL these on his side (then we will get to the ML movement) MUST have all to qualify:
1. Better ERA overall AND better ERA last three outings
2. MORE complete innings pitched, overall AND last three (combine them)
3. Better TEAM Won AND Loss record (BOTH!) ex: 5-1 vs. 2-4
4. Better INDIVIDUAL Won-Loss record (both)
MUST HAVE ALL TO GO TO NEXT STEP.
Then = check OVERNIGHT LINE vs. OPENING LINE (I use covers.com opening line), then current sportsbook line, pinny, sb.com, etc.
You should get something like this:
SDP (Peavy) -180(overnite) -170 (opening) then -168 current as of 9:00am CST.
Now, track for support or lack of support. PEAVY meets ALL of the top 4 criteria, now I'm looking for ML support for back-up or lack of support to get a play. Here is his ML motion up to 3:00pm CST.
-180, -170, -168, [-173], and at 3:00pm, -185!
That is what I'm looking for. Meets all the above criteria, then his ML moves over and above the opening line by +15 and +5 over the overnight line. SOLID motion.
So, i've had some dull time today, and here are the candidates for WED's action using this. REMEMBER, this is something like a work-in-progress, so don't go hating or crapping on me, because I'm not ringing it up as gospel or infinite wisdom. It's just something that I've been tracking that has a look I would call "promising".
All these lines as of 3:00pm CST, I use sb.com for the available lines. All these pitchers meet the criteria above and have line movement in support, the more upticks (or downticks against fav), the better. I have a number beside each one which I will explain later, the higher the number, the better the play, but take it lightly as I am tweaking this due to a number of variables involving 'weighting' issues, era, wl, diffy stuff.
LAD (Wolf) -155 (+21) watch this ML, it is on the uptick, no play if it goes down ANY, would like to see it around 160-170 closer to GT.
OAK (Blanton) -215 (+16)
ARZ (Webb) -122 (+13)
SDP (Peavy) -185 (+15)
DET (Maroth) +128 (+20) watch line on this game, no play if it goes above +130, would like to see it drop to +120 or so.
FLA (Olson) +100 (+5) This has a FIVE-increment drop from -135 to -109, Olson looks like a play at this time.
TEX (Padilla) -118 (+3) this is an extra 'maybe' game due to the BIG shift in the ML from TAM -105, to TEX -118. Might be worth a look, even tho Padilla doesn't meet the criteria exactly, his opponent is awful. Big shift in ML here.
So, let's see how it does. Watch the lines closely on LAD & DET, they may be no-plays.
Just thought I'd toss out what I'm doing.
GL tonight to all,
US
:toast:
