Jibba's Thursday MLB

Jibba · May 17, 2007

Money Lines:

Favorites: 100-53 for +23.61 units
Underdogs: 30-30 for +8.10 units
Total: 130-83 for for +31.71 units

Run Lines: 3-3 for +0.88 units

Parlays: 0-1 for -1.67 units
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6-4 on the day yesterday in money line plays for a little over a unit, but that damn parlay bumped me back into the negative on the day. Was pretty shocked at the way the early games played out, and then I was fortunate enough to get a bunch of comebacks to sweep the late games (aside from the parlay with Oakland). On to today. Just want to get this one out now since I think the line is slowly starting to move.

Florida -110: Florida's offense is starting to come around again and should have no problems at all today with Armas, especially considering that he is 3-12 in his career against the Fish in 17 starts (5.98 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, .287 BAA). Nolasco has pitched well this year aside from one game in LA. In his 2 road starts this year he's let up only 2 earned runs in 9 innings. Florida has won 4 of the last 5 games they've played in Pittsburgh, and 5 of 6 in total against the Pirates. I like them to win big today. 1.65 units to win 1.5.

Jibba · May 17, 2007

Not that it makes a big difference, but I actually got -102 on that Florida game. Hadn't clicked submit when I posted here. That number is available for over $2,000 on MB right now.

Jibba · May 17, 2007

Boston -130: This is what I wrote yesterday about this game:

There are so many reasons for liking this game in my opinion. Despite last night's loss, Boston has won 14 of 18 against Detroit in Fenway, where Boston is a very solid 12-6 this year. Boston's offense is #1 in baseball at home this year (and off the top of my head, I believe overall). Overall, they've won 11 of their last 15.

Today they get to face old friend Mike Maroth, who is an impressive 3-0 this year (and it should be noted the Tigers have won every one of his starts). But he's doing it in ugly fashion, having given up 54 hits in 40.1 innings. He's been putting up an average of 5-6 innings per game, and he no longer has relief phenom Zumaya to back him up. Plus, in his 5 road starts this year opponents are batting .333 against him and his WHIP is up around 1.80. That's not going to cut it against a Red Sox team that is hitting this well and that has absolutely owned Maroth during his career. In 7 career starts against Boston, Maroth is 0-6 with a 7.22 ERA, a 2.09 WHIP, and a .351 BAA. Manny Ramirez and Jason Varitek have hit him very hard, and considering that Manny is just now starting to heat up (like every other year), I see him having a big night. I've been solid on my Red Sox plays this year and this is not a homer play. But I gotta go with yet another fav tonight. I understand it's Julian Tavarez that I'm putting my play on, but I really like the Sox to pull this one out tonight. 2.03 units to win 1.5.

I still really like this game, and even moreso now. I mentioned yesterday how much success the Sox have had against Maroth, but think I left out Maroth's stats in Fenway. In 4 career starts in Boston, Maroth is 0-4 with a 8.02 ERA, a 2.06 WHIP, and a .357 BAA. Also, aside from how well the Sox have played at home this year, they are also 10-3 this year in day games. Tavarez's only win this year was in a day game. And I got this one at a better price than yesterday's. I'll keep the play as is for now, but may add another half unit before the game. 1.95 units to win 1.5.

MIKEY.1TIME · May 17, 2007

like the sox too, also putting a little on the under considering the weather, despite them playing well vs maroth.

gl!!!

a153 · May 17, 2007

New pitcher. You think it makes the play better or worse?

SonnySixKill · May 17, 2007

Zach Miner?

Jibba · May 17, 2007

a153 said:
New pitcher. You think it makes the play better or worse?

Ugh. This is so frustrating. First last night gets postponed, and now Maroth finds an excuse to get out of playing the Sox. I still like the play but have to see what the line is. VIP has it at -140, and if I can't do better at Matchbook, it will be a 1 unit play, but have to give it more thought before sticking with the 1.5 unit play.

Miner looked good at times last year and was actually very solid in road games while really sucking at home. His only appearance against the Sox was at home and he got knocked around a bit in 4 innings (7 hits, 3 ERs). I can't see him waltzing right back into the bigs and shutting down the best home offense in baseball, but I am just pissed at this whole Maroth thing.

SonnySixKill · May 17, 2007

Fukk it, grabbed 2 units at -138

Jibba · May 17, 2007

Have to run but want to get this in. Will try to do a writeup in a bit.

Cleveland +128: 1 unit to win 1.28.

Boston -135: 1.35 units to win 1.

Jibba · May 17, 2007

Sorry, still no time to post writeups yet. Want to get this before the line moves.

Tampa Bay -151: 1.51 units to win 1.

Boston -138: Adding one half unit, for a total of 2.04 units to win 1.5.

Jibba · May 17, 2007

Sorry to be so brief with my plays. I generally like to give my reasonings but sometimes don't have the time. Will say a couple words and then add to my plays.

Cleveland +128: Game is in the 3rd inning already, but I'll just briefly touch on my play. Johan has yet to be himself yet this year. He's pitched well on the road this year and against Cleveland in the past, but he hasn't had the same stuff he did in years past . . . at least not yet. I was willing to take a shot on a great home team with a great offense at this price. 1 unit to win 1.28.

Tampa Bay -151: High price to pay for the D-Rays, but well worth it IMO. Rangers are horrible on the road and will have a lot more trouble scoring against Kazmir than they did last night. Texas has lost 5 of their last 6 in Tropicana and I think Kameron Loe will see that it only gets worse. 1.51 units to win 1.

Adding:

Atlanta -1.5, -105: I guess I'm a glutton for these Braves lately. Nats keep playing good ball, but I can't see it lasting. They're just too bad of a team to keep this up, and Chico should have trouble with this Braves offense now that Chipper is back. I don't often play run lines, but I'd like to get that record above .500 today. 1.05 units to win 1.

Chicago (AL) +123: Why exactly is this Yankee team favored on the road with a rookie starting? Garland has had some success against the Yankees and should be favored considering how bad NY has played lately. 1 unit to win 1.23.

Considering a last minute play on the Cubs considering the lineup the Mets put out there, but the line is basically even money now so I'm not sure if there's enough value there.

And just to keep everything neat, here's my current card in full:

Boston: 2.04 units to win 1.5.
Florida: 1.53 units to win 1.5.
Cleveland: 1 unit to win 1.28.
Tampa Bay: 1.51 units to win 1.
Chicago (AL): 1 unit to win 1.23.
Atlanta -1.5: 1.05 units to win 1.

Redbull+ · May 17, 2007

as you record shows you are a solid guy here, i'm glad you are on florida tonight,
i like the marlins a lot not betting very often hope they win good luck !

Jibba · May 17, 2007

Thanks Redbull. Look forward to reading your reviews in the future. Hope we cash it.

Redbull+ · May 17, 2007

not very good at reviews but i'll try my best. good luck on all your selections not only fishes.

rehawk · May 17, 2007

good pick on cleveland, i wanted to make that pick, but was a few minutes too late. carmona looks good and the minn's offense is underachieving right now.

Jibba · May 17, 2007

Redbull said:
not very good at reviews but i'll try my best. good luck on all your selections not only fishes.

Seemed like you had some pretty solid info to offer the forum, and that's always appreciated.

Milwaukee -121: Brewers are too good to continue losing, and they have their ace going today. Sheets has not been himself yet this year, but I honestly believe it's still only a matter of time before we see the real Ben Sheets. And he's at very least moving in the right direction lately, going 2-0 in his last 5 starts. Garcia hasn't been impressive this year and the Brewers young lineup will be thankful to see him after having to deal with Cole Hamels last night. 1.21 units to win 1.

Jibba · May 17, 2007

rehawk said:
good pick on cleveland, i wanted to make that pick, but was a few minutes too late. carmona looks good and the minn's offense is underachieving right now.

Still a long way to go and Cleveland's offense has been shut down so far, but definitely the type of game you like to see with this home dog (aside from a blowout of course).

rehawk · May 17, 2007

Jibba said:
Still a long way to go and Cleveland's offense has been shut down so far, but definitely the type of game you like to see with this home dog (aside from a blowout of course).

excellent game by carmona, very nice pick

Jibba · May 17, 2007

rehawk said:
excellent game by carmona, very nice pick

Thanks man. Definitely a nice way to start off the day. Chi Sox took an early lead in the first and the Bo Sox are up 2-1 and threatening in the 6th. Now if the Braves can just stop screwing around with the Nats I might have a very solid day on my hands. Washington has the bases loaded with 2 out, down 3-1. I gave 'em too much credit early on, and now that they're playing well it seems I'm not giving them enough credit.

finman13 · May 17, 2007

jibba gl tonight. im taking a break from wagering for a couple of weeks. ill still be popping on here and handicapping some games. i almost played the indians today. really like the drays tonight. ill be rooting for that pick while there. very cloudy and may rain. careful on the marlins tongith. armas has pitched some decent games at home. a play on the over might be worth it as both pitchers are poor and the marlins bully sucks. have taken a break from the nba. record stood at 17-8-2. i do like the nets -3 in the next game and the bulls -2 for what its worth. enjoy your thread. take care