Gonna start fading a few pitchers that have stats indicating they are performing outside of their capability. What does "performing outside of their capability" mean? Well I'm a stathead, and to me, that means a guy who has gotten very good, even too good, defense behind him. How to measure that? BABIP.
A pitcher with an extraordinarily low BABIP (Batting Average on Balls-in-play) coupled with moderate or high contact rates (K/9, K/IP, K/BB) is getting a lot of contact and a lot of defensive support. The league average for BABIP is around .300. These stats are from BP:
These are essentially all guys who are not power pitchers, who do not strike out a ton of batters, who get a lot of contact, and who are allowing few hits from that contact. In essence, the argument here is that--other than Home Runs, which a pitcher controls to some degree--a pitcher has little control over balls put in play. A pitcher can control his GO/FO ratio, which also tends to control home runs, but beyond that a ball in play is a ball in play, and its up to the defense behind him to field it.
Given that the average BABIP is .300, most of these pitchers with BABIP far below that--especially those pitching in front of mediocre defenses--can expect their BABIP to rise over the course of the remainder of the season. And given that most of these guys aren't considered strikeout pitchers--with a few exceptions--means their ERA are going to skyrocket. In my opinion.
If my logic follows, the ones with the worst K/BB and K/9 rates should see their ERAs rise the most (Marquis, Garland, Wakefield, Washburn) while the ones with the best K/BB and K/9 should see the least correction (Bergmann, Hill, Hernandez, Shields, Hendrickson, Cain). I would guess, however, that Bergmann and Hill will see quite a correction because their BABIP is quite low. Also I think Cain will see a large correction because the defense playing behind him is remarkably bad. Wakefield is an interesting one because he's a fundamentally different pitcher than the rest of the guys on this list, so I'm not sure if my logic is going to apply to the knuckleball. We'll see, but for now I'm going to lay off fading him as hard as the rest of these guys.
I'm going to track these guys from here on out and we'll see if my predictions are right as far as ERA, and as far as fading their teams! :toast:
A pitcher with an extraordinarily low BABIP (Batting Average on Balls-in-play) coupled with moderate or high contact rates (K/9, K/IP, K/BB) is getting a lot of contact and a lot of defensive support. The league average for BABIP is around .300. These stats are from BP:
Code:
Pitcher BABIP ERA K/9 K/BB
Jason Bergmann .183 2.76 7.7 2.0
Jason Marquis .196 2.22 4.3 1.6
Jon Garland .210 3.44 3.3 1.5
Rich Hill .212 2.51 7.7 2.7
Orlando Hernandez .218 2.53 7.0 1.9
Tim Wakefield .226 2.41 5.2 1.5
James Shields .226 3.13 8.1 5.4
Mark Hendrickson .232 2.61 6.9 2.4
Jarrod Washburn .234 2.64 4.9 2.2
Matt Cain .236 3.18 6.2 1.4These are essentially all guys who are not power pitchers, who do not strike out a ton of batters, who get a lot of contact, and who are allowing few hits from that contact. In essence, the argument here is that--other than Home Runs, which a pitcher controls to some degree--a pitcher has little control over balls put in play. A pitcher can control his GO/FO ratio, which also tends to control home runs, but beyond that a ball in play is a ball in play, and its up to the defense behind him to field it.
Given that the average BABIP is .300, most of these pitchers with BABIP far below that--especially those pitching in front of mediocre defenses--can expect their BABIP to rise over the course of the remainder of the season. And given that most of these guys aren't considered strikeout pitchers--with a few exceptions--means their ERA are going to skyrocket. In my opinion.
If my logic follows, the ones with the worst K/BB and K/9 rates should see their ERAs rise the most (Marquis, Garland, Wakefield, Washburn) while the ones with the best K/BB and K/9 should see the least correction (Bergmann, Hill, Hernandez, Shields, Hendrickson, Cain). I would guess, however, that Bergmann and Hill will see quite a correction because their BABIP is quite low. Also I think Cain will see a large correction because the defense playing behind him is remarkably bad. Wakefield is an interesting one because he's a fundamentally different pitcher than the rest of the guys on this list, so I'm not sure if my logic is going to apply to the knuckleball. We'll see, but for now I'm going to lay off fading him as hard as the rest of these guys.
I'm going to track these guys from here on out and we'll see if my predictions are right as far as ERA, and as far as fading their teams! :toast:
