Boxslayer's MLB Thursday (108-104, +11.92)

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UF. Champion U.
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108-104, +11.92

Somebody cue Tom Petty's Free Fallin'. That best describes my baseball picks right now. Mixture of bad plays, and bad luck. Braves were my favorite play yesterday, they out hit the opponent 10 to 5 and lose. I have been focusing on NBA and making a killing, but my MLB plays have sufferred. Been half assing capping baseball, taking short cuts, and my baseball winnings have sufferred. Still up on the year, and it's time to get serious. Today is the day I turn this back around and get back moving forward. Starting off today:

3* Twins/Indians under 8 -120

Carmona has been lights out. His sinker is nasty. He is tough at home. Twins are ice cold with the bats right now. Carmona has battled Joahn before, and won 5-4. These Twins/Indians games have historically been low-average scoring affairs. Game 1 was an anomaly scoring fest between these two teams.

What better pitcher than Johan to try a stymie the Indian bats right now. Johan has owned the key hitters in this lineup: Sizemore and Hafner. Peralta is out of the lineup today. Obviously Joe Mauer is out as well for the Twins.

Just see a battle in game 3 to try to avoid the sweep. A pitching duel in this day game between two good pitchers.

More later.
 

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You can thank Kelly Johnson for that L on the Braves yesterday.
 

UF. Champion U.
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1* Cubs/Mets under 9 EVEN


This game is like scrubfest 2007.

No D-Lee, no Mark Derosa for the Cubbies.

No Beltran, Wright, Reyes, Lo Duca or Alou for Mets.

AKA Mets are out today.

Cubs cant hit lefties.
 

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Decided to follow you on that Cubs/Mets under at the last minute. Had to take under 9.5 for -120 or so though. Shouldn't matter in this one though. Also, your Tribe/Twins play is looking good halfway through. On the Indians myself. BOL.
 

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2* New York Yankees -130
1* New York Yankees -1.5 +125

Love this lineup that the Yanks have today. They have shaken up their lineup, bat Abreau leadoff, Damon is out. Giambi is back, and will bat 3 hole and ARod cleanup.

Good time to shake up the lineup. Strong top part of the lineup with Abreau, Jeter, Giambi, Arod, Matsui, Posada. Cano is back.

Garland just cant beat the Yanks. And he is 0-8 last 8 as a home underdog.

Yanks struggle vs. lefties and got beat by one yesterday in Danks, but now a righty, Garland, they should rake during the day time.

DeSalvo will pitch well enough to win, and is hot right now. Whitesox offense will continue to struggle without Thome and Pods.

Yanks win and they will be back at .500. Big game for them to win and get on track until their rotation returns to health.
 

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1* Brewers/Phillies over 8.5 -105

Brewers 10-1 after being held to 2 runs or less. Small, homerun park in Philly. Philly 10-1 at home vs. a right handed starter. Leads me to believe both teams play well today and swing it. Sheets isnt as solid on the road. Over is also 7-0 in sheets last 7 starts. Garcia hasnt been the same in Philly.
 

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Yeah, I'm just about done with baseball right now. I'm beyond frustrated.
 

Raising 4 girls!
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What an ugly beat on the Cubs/Mets under. Wow.
Tell me about it. I tailed Box and someone else when they posted about CHC/NYM Under 9 & what the Mets lineup was going to be like.

Sickening to find out (after away from computer working) that Mets gets 5 runs in 9th to win, 6-5.

* CalvinTy
 

Raising 4 girls!
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Yeah, I'm just about done with baseball right now. I'm beyond frustrated.
Understandable. So many people's tolerance are being tested the last few weeks... I'm sure you saw THW's huge plays this week... :think2:

* CalvinTy
 

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Yeah, I'm just about done with baseball right now. I'm beyond frustrated.

Stick with it man. It's been a very tough week or so. This entire forum was on fire and then all of a sudden everyone went flat. Obviously it would be a sad day if we lost another top capper in bases.
 

UF. Champion U.
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nah i dont mean i am quitting...but it slooking like i need a day or 2 off

that mets game is really pissing me off right now

and i just watched every game i need hit into about 5 double plays in a 20 min span
 

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not the start to the day I wanted. Mets under was brutal. Yanks didnt even show up, and Milwaukee stranded a small village on base. 3 HRs all solo. No over.

Moving on to tonight.

I have honestly found the first play in a very long time that I am in love with. Which is scary considering that I am cold lately. However, this is a game that I feel percentages are through the roof. Lineups are out, so it is a go, it is a game that I have had circled since earlier today before any plays were decided. Write up on the way.
 

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5* Florida Marlins TT over 4.5 -120
3* Florida Marlins -116
1* Florida Marlins -1.5 +140
1* Florida Marlins -2.5 +225

Call me nuts, but this is one of those games where I throw money management out the window. I'm a gambler, and I go for the jugular when I see an opportunity. I have prided myself over the years in having a very good win percentage when I see a game where I feel I can make an investment. How the Marlins aren't -150 here AT LEAST is beyond me. This is a game I have had circled since earlier today when I looked over the card, I have talked it over with Pyro while I was at work on IM's, and he agreed with this play 100%. The Marlins are a team I have the chance to watch everyday living in FLA, and I feel I have a good read on them.

I'm not asking anybody to follow me, I am simply making a stand on a game, and sharing it with therx. No game is a lock, and this game could very well lose 15-0, and I will move on to tomorrow. Although this is a large wager, it is not over my head, this is 10% of my bankroll, I am not all-in - nor do I suggest you ever do anything similiar or remotely close to an all-in. Everyone should do their own research on this game before putting ANY money on this game, but I will lay out some of my findings below:

Tony Armas is one of the worst pitchers in the big leagues - by far. He is a pitcher that actually has some decent stuff, but he goes right after hitters, and he doesnt have good enough, dominant stuff to get away with it. He has a tendency to catch too much of the plate, and that wont go well for him tonight. The Marlins are a young, aggressive lineup that feasts on pitchers like this. You beat the Marlins by keeping them off balance, changing speeds, and fooling with these aggressive bats. You do not go right after them with decent stuff.

Pirates manager has informed Armas that this will be his last start unless he pitches well. A lot of pressure on Armas in this game with a team on the verge of a 3-game losing streak on his shoulders. Malrins meanwhile, on the verge of a 3-game winning streak are really starting to heat up.

The Marlins are exiting a slump right now. Miguel Cabrera is in large part, a big reason for that slump. he has been ice cold lately, and the Marlins go as Miguel goes. Miguel could be coming out of it, with this Marlins team, and tonight is as good of a night as any to really break out of it. Miguel bats .700 (7 for 10) off Armas. Thats not all. Almost every other hitter in this Marlins lineup has had MAJOR success vs. Armas. Another big reason for the Marlins coming out offensively, they moved one of the best young players in the game, Hanley Ramirez to the 3 hole. Lineups tonight confirmed he will again bat 3 hole. This puts a great action guy who can swipe bags, hit homeruns, and punch balls in the gap at 3 hole, and puts Miguel 4 hole, and the "hammer" Josh Willingham 5 hole. That is a very good middle of the lineup that can drive in runs and produce vs. a pitcher on his last leg.

Armas has not made it past the 5th inning in 4 of his past 5 starts. Marlins have had big success in Pitt lately winning 4 of their last 5 and 2 straight.

Ricky Nolasco is nothing special on the mound, but he has had good success vs. the Pirates in his short time vs. them. Many of these hitters have not seen Nolasco, or have seen a limited amount of Nolasco. He is prone to left handed bats, but Pitt is void of a group of impact left handed sticks. He is tough on righties, and that is what he will face plenty of tonight. Again this Marlins bullpen is starting to gain confidence with Tankersley leading the pack.

We all know Pitt can go into offensive funks, and they can have trouble scoring runs, and I think tonight is that night. The Marlins should jump on top early and often, expand their lead, get into Pitts' bullpen early and run away with this game.

Marlins 8
Pitt 3

Best of luck guys.
 

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hey Box: Goodluck on this, was about to join you then i saw Pitt was steamed...any reason why you think?
 

UF. Champion U.
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i honestly cant tell you, and i honestly dont care - and i dont mean that in a bad way.

in games like this where i have baseball 101 advantages, stats, trends, etc all in my favor - line movement etc doesnt bother me.

this is a game i feel hits 80%-85% of the time, and there is no betting action that can sway me here.

a guy that i know reads line movement and sharp action and wise guy action is CKKid, and I use CKKid as a tool to represent sharp action.

he has specialized and handicapped games based off sharp and wise guy action for years, so once i like a game, i see a bunch of things in my favor, and then i see CKkid on top of it, I know I have wise guy action in my favor as well.

as you can tell by CKKid's record, even sharp action loses, steamed plays lose, etc. nothing is a lock, and a steamed play or sharp action doesnt always win.

ive seen the lineups, and it is nothing from a lineup perspective.
 

UF. Champion U.
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by the way i dont see anything like that at my book..line is pretty much the same
 

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