Jibba's Friday MLB

Money Lines:

Favorites: 103-54 for +26.08 units
Underdogs: 33-30 for +11.76 units
Total: 130-83 for for +31.71 units

Run Lines: 3-4 for -0.17 units

Parlays: 0-3 for -2.97 units

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6-2 on my regular plays for +5.08 units last night. Yet another night where I couldn't resist the sucker parlay though, and it cost me 1.3 units of my winnings. So a grand total of +3.78 units.

Anyway, I think I'm going against the trend here and taking some solid NL teams in interleague play, and also the lone NL game. Added a bunch to these writeups from what I posted last night.

Pittsburgh -134: Pirates are hitting pretty well lately and the D-Backs are not. The Pirates are batting .273 over the past week, which is over .030 higher than their season average, and have a team OBP of .341 during that time. Over that same span, Arizona is batting .220 (28th in MLB over that span) with an OBP of .271 (dead last in MLB over that span). The Pirates send their ace to the mound, and he has been very impressive at home this year. I think he'll certainly make it tough for the D-Backs to break out of their slump.

Snell will face up against Doug Davis, who has been very solid on the road despite his 0-4 record away from home. PNC Park hasn't exactly been kind to him though. In his career over 8 starts (43 IPs), he's 2-3 in PNC with a 5.44 ERA, a 1.77 WHIP, and a .314 BAA. And a number of these Pirates have hit him pretty well. Jason Bay is 9 for 28 against Davis. Duffy is 4 for 9, Sanchez is 11 for 26, and Wilson is 14 for 42. Even Castillo has hit him, although he's just a mediocre 6 for 22. But I think that works in our favor, and is the exact opposite of Snell's opponents, who have basically never seen him. Very good shot for Davis to drop to 0-5 on the road tomorrow. 2.01 units to win 1.5.

NY Mets -105: Does the public think that Andy Pettitte can win this game on his own? Sure, he's 5-0 against the Mets with a 2.43 ERA in 12 starts since the 2000 WS. And sure he's had great stuff so far this year. But there's a reason why the Yankees are 3-5 in games which Pettitte starts. Additionally, the Mets' big bats have had a lot of success against Pettitte (Delgado is 21 for 58 with 5 HRs and 16 RBIs, Beltran is 12 for 31, and Wright is 5 for 10).

Perez looked great in his last outing, so I don't see much of a pitching mismatch at all here. So all we're left with is two teams that just aren't comparable, unless you're going strictly by how they look on paper. The Mets are clearly the better team, and with the Yankees' troubles on the road this year, I can't see them pulling this one out. Plus, Damon may still be out and Reyes should be back for the Mets, who should be very rested after basically getting the day off yesterday. Fade the Yankees. 1.58 units to win 1.5.

Milwaukee -150: I've added a half play to this play at -146 since last night. Minnesota has looked horrible lately, having lost 7 of their last 8 while the Brewers and Capuano are itching to get things rolling again after getting whooped around a bit in Philly. Minnesota was money last year in interleague play at 16-2, but we're talking about a better Twins team than we see this year, especially with Mauer still out. They rely a lot on their pitching to win games for them, and this year they have yet to get it done. They also don't have a certain pitcher you may have heard of . . . Francisco Liriano, who was 2-0 against the Brewers last year with a 0.69 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a .128 BAA. They also won't have Johan going in this series. Just taking away these two completely changes what they did last year in interleague play. Liriano led MLB with 5 interleague wins (5-0 in 5 starts) and 43 Ks, while Santana, who led MLB in interleague ERA, was not far behind in wins with 3 (3-0 in 3 starts). That's half of their interleague wins. Now I think Boof is a solid pitcher and all, but no way can he fill the shoes of those two top notch SPs.

The public has started to fade the Brewers, which is a good time to hop back on board. Have people forgotten that they're 21-5 in their last 26 home games and 22-8 in their last 30 games as a favorite? The Brewers find ways to win the games they should be winning. And with Caps going tonight, they should continue that trend. Milwaukee is 7-1 in games he's started this year and I see that improving. 2.2 units to win 1.5.

San Francisco -104: Barry Zito returns to Oakland and finds a team that can't beat the Kansas City Royals. Oakland's offense has been horrible at home this year and Zito won't make things any easier. I know that the Giants were bad last year in interleague play, but Bonds is hitting this year and Zito is doing well enough keeping people off the bases, which is what I think you want to do against this struggly A's team. And even with San Fran's interleague troubles last year, they took 2 of 3 in Oakland and held them to 3 runs total in that 3 game series. 1.04 units to win 1.

May add to these as the day goes on after I give them another long look. Also have a lean on San Diego and LAA right now. I know, I know . . . bang the AL hard in interleague play right? Well, maybe in the past 2 years, but that's not the way it's always been. And I think we may see a reversion to seasons like 2002, 2003, and 2004. There are some extremely weak teams in the AL this year (KC, Texas, and Baltimore for starters, but then even some of the mediocre ones have looked horrible lately), and even the worst of the bunch in the NL, Washington, is playing good ball right now. Maybe I'll get burned for going against the trend, but I see a lot of value on the NL because it seems books are expecting all the money on the AL. BOL to everyone on their picks today.<!-- / message -->

Sonny Sixkill said:

Any thoughts on Dodgers and Penny at -114?

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Copied this from yesterday's thread so I could let that one die. My initial lean is to go with the Angels as the home dog. I've been riding them a bit lately and think that this is another good spot for them. Santana is a top starter when at home and the Angels are coming in on a roll, having won 7 of 9. LAD is 6-20 in their last 26 interleague games. Penny has been pitching out of his mind this year, and I can't see him keeping it up. I'm hoping to get a little better of a price on this one, although I still have to look a bit deeper before I would play it. Easy to say Penny is due to revert a bit, but he hasn't shown any signs of it yet, and has been unhittable on the road.

Ok, gonna try something different here.

Cleveland -173: Lots of chalk, but well worth it. The way this one stacks up, the line should be over 2-1 in my opinion. Cleveland is on an unreal tear at home right now and face a team that is reeling on the road these days. The Tribe have lost 3 games at home this year. They're currently on a 7 game home winning streak and have won 12 of their last 13 home games. Cincinatti, on the other hand, is 1-7 in their last 8 road games. Cleveland is winning the games they should win, as evidenced by their 8-2 record in their last 10 as a favorite, and they should absolutely win this one.

Cliff Lee comes into this game with one of the best interleague records in baseball. In 10 starts, he's 7-0 with a 3.54 ERA. He comes into this one having looked solid in his 3 starts this year since coming off the DL and he looked very good in 2 of 3 career starts against the Reds (the 1st time he faced them he got killed, which destroyed his ratios). Conversely, the shine is starting to come off of Kyle Lohse. He got roughed up in his last start for 6 runs in 4 innings against the Dodgers and has given up 34 hits in his last 4 starts (23.1 IPs). Lohse and the Reds got the loss in all 4 of those games. Lohse has also been owned during his career in Cleveland. Over 8 starts in Jacobs Field, Lohse is 2-6 with a 7.31 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and a .293 BAA. Just too much going for the Tribe today so I'm going to try something a little different. 1.73 units to win 1.

Cleveland -1.5, +117: 1 unit to win 1.17.

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At this point it's likely I'll have plays on Chicago (AL), San Diego, and LAA, but I'll update later.

Detroit -107: St. Louis is getting way too much respect based on the fact that Miller is making first MLB start tonight. But this kid is not your average rookie IMO. There's a reason why the Tigers are giving him a shot despite the fact that he was drafted just last year. Despite the Tigers' troubles at Fenway the last few days, I think they'll come up big tonight. This is yet another team that has done well this year beating the teams they should be beating, having gone 8-1 in their last 9 games as a favorite. They're also playing a team that struggled badly in interleague play on the road last year, finishing up with 1 win in their last 8 interleague road games. And the Cards are also losing the games they should be losing, having lost 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog. The Tigers swept St. Louis during interleague play in Detroit last year, and I think they get right back on track this year, while also shooting for a little revenge for their loss to the Cards in the WS.

We're getting a nice price on this one probably because the public is in fade-the-Tigers mode after the Boston series. But they just ran into a very hot team with the pitching to shut them down. It happens. They're still a much better team right now than the Cards and will have home field advantage. 1.07 units to win 1.

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Also, for anyone interested, I wrote up a few thoughts on the Boston game tonight in another thread. I've been very good so far picking the Boston games (off the top of my head I'd guess 9-3). Don't think I'll be paying the -150 though and doubt it will drop so it will likely be a no play. But I wouldn't argue too strongly with someone willing to pay that price. If the Braves look anything like they did against the Nats, they're in trouble. Coming into Boston at the right time though and will miss most of the Sox pitchers. Anyways, here's my thoughts:

I think the line is pretty much where it should be. Maybe slightly high. But for the record, Devern has started 2 games in the majors. In fact, last year (I believe on the last day of the season), he threw a complete game, 5 inning no-hitter against Baltimore in a rain-shortened game. The year before that he was working as a lobsterman, so we're definitely not talking about a blue chip prospect, but he's got decent stuff.

I just couldn't back this Braves team again after looking so bad against the Nats the last 4 days though. And with respect for this Lerew kid, he's coming off getting knocked around a bit and is now facing a streaking hot, best offense in baseball (especially at home). I can't think of any reason to go against the Sox right now, although I probably won't be laying that chalk. Just my $.02.

Against you on the Tigers...but agree with the Tribe...GL!!!!!!!!!!!

Just saw your thread. At least one of us will win man. BOL.

you going with the white sox today jibba?

gl jibba, lets rock the house homie.....:toast:

I agree with the cleveland pick, they are too hot right now. lets hope they can keep up the streak

finman13 said:

you going with the white sox today jibba?

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I am but have been waiting to see how high the line would go. When I finally went over to put in the play, MB was down. When it first came back up, there were no lines for the game and the first one that popped up was +140. It's moving around like crazy over there and not sure what it's at now. If it's somehow dropped back down to +130 or so again, then I'll be glad to use that for my record. But this is the price I just got a minute and a half ago.

Chicago (AL) +140: The Chi Sox are playing very well lately, having won 8 of 11. But I think the public still sees them as the awful team that made for perfect fade material a couple weeks ago. But this team is now up to 3 games over .500 and I see them improving on that today. The Cubs are not playing good ball at home this year (8-11) and in general lately (2-6 in their last 8). On the other hand, the Chi Sox have actually played better away from home (11-8). And they've taken 4 of their last 6 at Wrigley.

I've seen Lilly pitch a lot, and he's pitching over his head right now. He will not finish off the season with an ERA around 2.5. I'd actually be shocked if he made it to the All Star break with it under 3. Plus, the Cubs always seem to find a way to lose games they should win, such as yesterday's blow up in the 9th. I can't imagine the team will react well in response to a loss like that. 1 unit to win 1.4.

Also, mudder and rehawk, BOL today. Hope we all make some money on our cards.

absolutely love all your picks today, except the mets pick. not sure about that. kinda a fishy line if you ask me. pettite pickem vs oliver perez?!?! yes i know the numbers dont lie, but the yankees could certainly break out of their slump at anytime. i think everyone should ride the indians hard at home until the lose a few in a row. they are dynamite there. i also like the under dodgers game and the over in the drays game. do you see any value in the royals?

waiting to see if you pull the trigger on the red sox. going double bet on the indians and pirates tonight

im back in the nba tonight. im taking the under in the spurs/suns game. taking the nets -2.5 as well.

I think the Mets line appears fishy, but makes sense considering that the public will be all over Pettite since he never loses to the Mets. People just can't believe that the Yankees aren't good. And this Mets team is very good.

Don't really have an opinion on the Royals game and haven't even capped it. I liked them against the A's day after day and couldn't pull the trigger, so I'm probably not going to go ahead and do it now in CO.

As for the Sox, I do like them a lot tonight, but I don't want to get too comfortable taking my home town team. I'll probably put a small action play on it though, especially considering how bad Atlanta has looked. But leaning toward making it a no-play officially.

Thanks for the tips on the NBA. Glad to see you're back to posting, and hopefully winning.

Nice card today Jibba! BOL. I'm with you on Mets & Milwaukee.
:toast:

Thanks Rencis. Adding:

San Diego -115: Unfortunately I don't have time to do a writeup, but most people probably already know how I feel about the Padres and Chris Young. Hoping the Pads can buck a number of trends and finally get to the Mariners. Think they should be able to hit Batista. 1.15 units to win 1.

Only other play I'm considering right now is LAA. Line has dropped quite a bit in that one. Currently at +103.

Current total card:

Pittsburgh: 2.01 units to win 1.5.
NY Mets: 1.58 units to win 1.5.
Milwaukee: 2.2 units to win 1.5.
Detroit: 1.07 unit to win 1.
Cleveland: 1.73 units to win 1.
Cleveland -1.5: 1 unit to win 1.17.
San Francisco: 1.04 units to win 1.
Chicago (AL): 1 unit to win 1.4.
San Diego: 1.15 units to win 1.

well so much for taking a couple week break...this interleague play has really got me excited. enjoyed the drays game last night. they gave us a voucher to check ou the dodgers or the royals for free in june.

anyway, the cubs are doing it to me again. i cannot win a game they are involved in. glad you added that padres game. im probably going with your card minus the mets and adding the phillies. lieber has done very well against this jays team in the past. has pitched well this year and is going against a fillin starter. considering the orioles to. trachsel has been solid this year but what is keeping me away is how much baltimore has struggled against this nats team. also taking the under in the angels and the over in the drays tonight.

i see the line has dropped in the suns/spurs game...the total that is. i think you will see a game like the last one pts wise. each team has seen each others sets so much and the intensity of an elimination game will keep this under 200. i would pick the spurs -3 if i didnt so badly want the suns to beat this cheapshot team. ive thought that about the spurs for years. their incessant whining annoys the shit out of me to. i would welcome the chance to punch tim duncan and manu ginoboli in the face.

also still think the nets are a slightly better team than the cavs. if vince carter would stop acting like vince carter and his cuz tmac and actually take quality shots and look to set up his teammates, then the cavs have a difficult time matching up. i think that will happen tonight, as it did the last game, and the nets when this game by about 8 to 10 pts. the nets are also still in desperation mode and the cavs are not. gl jibba and everyone

im going to add the rangers tonight. tejada has dominated the astros and has been solid this year, the rangers best pitcher. albers has been horrible at home this year. rangers have the better lineup as well that is starting to show signs of life. all this and the rangers are the underdog...probably becuase the drays just swept them . also taking the drays tonight. normally i dont take edwin jackson, but against a pitiful kim, i will. drays very solid in interleague play last year. they swept the marlins at home. they are playing solid ball right now having won 4 straight. drays 10-6 tonight

Good luck tonight Jibbs...Injuns should put up a 10 spot tonight.

Thanks guys. Adding one last play. No time for a writeup, but BOL to everyone tonight.

LA Angels +105: 1 unit to win 1.05.

i added the angels as well. decent night tonight despite going 0-2 in the nba. hit all your plays as well as over drays, phillies, rangers. lost under in the angels game. did not take the mets, but good call jibba. 8-6 on the day unless angels and fathers choke

My apologies for the Injuns...I said they would put 10 runs up for you, they only put up 9....i owe u one.