ATL/BOS May 18th

ATL +150. This may seem like a homer play, but I'll take +150 any day against a guy making his first start in the majors. The Sox offense is slightly better than the Braves, but not by much, and in my opinion the real Anthony Lerew is the guy who pitched lights out for 7 innings his first start. He's been one of the highly touted arms in the Braves organization for some time now. What happened last start in Pittsburgh, you might ask? Well it was his first road game ever, he's from Pittsburgh and apparently over 50 of his family&friends were there, which creates not only a sort of professional pressure but also personal pressure. I'll give a young guy making his 2nd start a pass for buckling under that kind of pressure.

But he's looked stellar under game-pressure in every outing I've seen of his dating back to last year. I'm not betting a lot on this one, just a value play as I really think Lerew is the better pitcher, the offenses are more-or-less evenly matched, and I think 50 cents is a lot for the Fenway advantage.

And for what it's worth, I could see some of the cold Braves bats start to pick up tonight. Calling Andruw Jones...

They've made some roster moves in the past couple days, deciding to cut the hapless Craig Wilson and play stud prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia at catcher and first to get his bat in the order more often. I think that could provide the boost this offense needs!
:aktion033

I think the line is pretty much where it should be. Maybe slightly high. But for the record, Devern has started 2 games in the majors. In fact, last year (I believe on the last day of the season), he threw a complete game, 5 inning no-hitter against Baltimore in a rain-shortened game. The year before that he was working as a lobsterman, so we're definitely not talking about a blue chip prospect, but he's got decent stuff.

I just couldn't back this Braves team again after looking so bad against the Nats the last 4 days though. And with respect for this Lerew kid, he's coming off getting knocked around a bit and is now facing a streaking hot, best offense in baseball (especially at home). I can't think of any reason to go against the Sox right now, although I probably won't be laying that chalk. Just my $.02. BOL on your play(s).

Thanks for the input, and yeah, after I posted that I was reading around a bit more and saw he made two starts last season. Even still, I like the Braves tonight at that price...not a huge play but one that I think is 10-15 cents off which is enough to create value for me.

And as for the Braves, they have a tendency to play down to their competition. They've done it all year, and it's a really bad habit, but they seem to play much better against good teams when they have to and they almost slack off against the Pittsburghs and the Washingtons...

Well I respect your opinion bro. Maybe I'm just down on them because I took the Braves in 2 of those games, but I just got the impression that aren't playing well. Thought their bats would really show up in that series after being dead for a bit, but they just couldn't pull it off. Either way, I look forward to these games. Gotta give a little love to an old school Boston team.

if this is your only play, start capping again, because this game will not be played today.