Saturdays services Plays & Preakness 5/19
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Big Al
Curlin
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Wizard's Major Stakes <HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Wizard's Major Stakes for Saturday, May 19th, 2007
Pimlico Race 12 - PREAKNESS STAKES
Pimlico Race 12 - PREAKNESS STAKES 1 3/16m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $1,000,000. Post Time: 6:09 ET
Race Synopsis
In plain and simple language, today’s Preakness Stakes boils down to two horses that are difficult to separate for the win, Hard Spun and Street Sense. There is the possibility that Curlin could upset the top two, but it will be a difficult task as I write in my analysis.
When I handicapped the Kentucky Derby just two weeks ago, no matter how hard I tried, I could not shy away from my belief that either Curlin or Street Sense had to win the run for the roses. Despite the reality that there were eighteen other horses in the race, if neither of these two horses came away with a victory, than I just didn’t have a clue who would win. I tabbed Curlin as my top selection, and made Street Sense my second choice. I didn’t have the winner on top that day, but a well-thought out wagering strategy resulted in a $440.00 trifecta payoff for a $40.00 suggested wager. (Note: my win bet on Curlin did not cash as well as my exacta box with my top two selections. But it was my $40.00 trifecta wager, which more than made up for the win and exacta loses).
Like the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness has its contenders and horses that are very unlikely to win. A few who were unable to make the run for the roses for one reason or another, are entering the starting gate Saturday as a hope to attain some measure of fame with a victory. Even though there some new shooters at Pimlico, I am hard pressed to believe that this year’s renewal of the Preakness will produce an upset. Hard Spun has the best chance to beat the race favorite who in all likelihood will be the Kentucky Derby hero, Street Sense. He certainly boasts a tactical advantage over that rival, and the more friendly speed favoring Pimlico track will afford him every opportunity to exact revenge in the Preakness. Street Sense will be running strong from well off the pace again, and he is certainly at his best when able to race along the inside. He has been a gem of consistency for his connections, and has never been worse than third in eight career starts. Today, with a change in venue, we will all have the opportunity to find out just how good Street Sense is away from Churchill Downs.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 MINT SLEWLEP 30/1
2 XCHANGER 15/1
3 CIRCULAR QUAY 8/1
4 CURLIN 7/2
5 KING OF THE ROXY 12/1
6 FLYING FIRST CLASS 20/1
7 HARD SPUN 5/2
8 STREET SENSE 7/5
9 C P WEST 20/1
First Selection: (7) HARD SPUN (Jones J Larry/Pino M G)
Hard Spun comes into the Preakness following an impressive second place finish in the Kentucky Derby. I had not predicted this kind of effort. Hard Spun certainly had all the credentials to run well off his form, having won five of six career starts. His lone defeat came in the Southwest stakes at Oaklawn. Trainer Larry Jones had indicated after the race that Hard Spun did not handle the surface well. At 1-2 odds, he did race wide from an outside post, but had no punch at all in the stretch. Hard Spun rebounded with an impressive win in the Grade 2 Lanes End at Turfway, followed by his strong effort in the Derby.
Despite running second to Street Sense, I felt his race was just as good as the winner, even though Hard Spun had been beaten. Breaking from post eighth, Hard Spun was put right on the lead by Mario Pino. There was not an abundance of early speed in the race, but Hard Spun got to the front effortlessly. He was rated beautifully by Pino while setting quick early fractions. When the field reached midway on the far turn, Hard Spun had easily put away the chasers. Approaching the top of the stretch, the only horse poised to make a run at him was the eventual winner. Street Sense had rallied from far off pace with never a straw in his path, riding the rail until tipping out to attack Hard Spun with a full head of steam. Street Sense cut into the pacesetter with every stride, as those two rivals drew well clear of the rest of the field. In mid stretch, there was little doubt that Street Sense was going to win the Derby, it was just a matter of how many lengths he would win by. Inside the eighth pole, Street Sense lugged in a bit, which he has shown a tendency to do, when he is not hugging the rail. The Racing Form comment was that Hard Spun had “bobbled”. This was a direct result of both horse and rider being intimidated, while racing close to the rail. Hard Spun had to steady, losing all his forward momentum. When this occurs, the horse that is going right by will quickly extend their margin of victory. This was not the case for Street Sense. Pino asked for Hard Spun to kick it back into gear and he got the response he wanted. The race was clearly over, but Hard Spun never stopped trying to the wire. Street Sense’s margin of victory was 2 ¼ lengths. If not for Pino having to steady at a crucial point in the race, he probably would still not have won, but the race would have been closer at the finish. I closely watched the gallop out past the wire, and there was no doubt in my mind, that Hard Spun was the fresher and stronger horse after the race was over.
Now the question is if Hard Spun can reverse the decision in the Preakness. The answer is yes. There are several reasons I feel this can happen. If you analyze his past performances, it is obvious that Hard Spun began to improve steadily once he was stretched out to two turns. In all four prior sprint starts, he had wired the field by nothing less than five lengths at the wire. He had shown he could handle intense pressure in the first half of the race, before disposing of his pace rivals and easily drawing clear. Once Hard Spun was asked to go two turns, he was able to ration out his speed better, which made him an even stronger horse in the final stages of the race. This was what actually occurred in the Derby, going 1 ¼ miles. In the Preakness, Hard Spun will cut back in distance, which can only help. He will also appreciate the tighter turns at Pimlico and the fact that historically, Pimlico favors early speed, and hinders closers. These factors can only help Hard Spun.
One of the questions that will be discussed by handicappers, especially those people who use speed figures to help base their opinions, is whether or not Hard Spun will regress off his lifetime figure that he earned in the Kentucky Derby. I don't use speed figures, even though I am aware of how valuable they can be. My handicapping philosophy is to focus on many other factors. These include the way a horse strides out, the trip he has, in relation to the pace of the race, and any track bias that might have helped or hindered that horses performance. Trainer intension and patterns are also very important to me.
I feel that trainer Larry Jones has managed Hard Spun to perfection. He has been humble in interviews and very truthful about how his horse was doing before the Derby and as he prepares for the Preakness. When Hard Spun worked a blistering 5 furlongs over the Churchill Downs strip five days before the Derby, many people felt that it was too fast a work on the heels of the biggest race of his career. I must admit that I was worried about how the workout would affect him, but the main reason I decided not to pick Hard Spun in my first four selections, was based more on questioning the competition he was beating, and the pace set up he would have to overcome in the Derby. Jones felt that the blazing drill had more to do with Hard Spun loving the Churchill Downs surface rather than rider Mario Pino losing control. He also indicated in the days leading up to the race, that he had come out of the work in excellent shape. The reason I feel Hard Spun will not regress in the Preakness is that Jones had freshened up Hard Spun after his romp in the Lanes End. He was the freshest horse coming into the Derby and ran like a horse who benefited by the time off. Because of the layoff, this will work to Hard Spun’s advantage in the Preakness.
Second Selection: (8) STREET SENSE (Nafzger Carl A/Borel C H)
Street Sense was saddled with lofty expectations as a three-year-old in 2007, primarily because of his sparkling win in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs in November. That said, Street Sense still had his detractors. Many of the so-called experts downgraded that victory, citing that his bias-aided win was a fluke, and it was not as impressive as it appeared upon closer inspection. In addition, the Eclipse award winner would make only two starts leading up to the Kentucky Derby. History had shown that three or more races, which almost everyone believed, were absolutely necessary in order to win the run for the roses. Many believed that the fact that he wore front bandages was detrimental, a signal that something was definitely amiss with him. Nevertheless, Street Sense had people in his corner, most notably his trainer, Carl Nafzger.
Street Sense made his belated three-year-old debut in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby on March 17 at Tampa Bay Downs. He picked up right were he left off in 2006, eking out a slim nose victory over an ultra game Any Given Saturday. Street Sense had cleared his first hurdle, but barely, as the connections of the two-year-old champion’s main focus was always geared towards the Kentucky Derby.
Carl Nafzger is quite proficient at having a horse at its peak for a specific race He didn’t think it was the end of the world when Street Sense went down to defeat by a nose in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 14. Racing extremely close to a pedestrian pace that day, Street Sense was one-paced over the Polytrack surface, losing valuable ground throughout, while racing well out in the track. When Street Sense was set down in the stretch by jockey Calvin Borel, he lacked his usual burst of late speed and appeared to labor over the Polytrack surface in the stretch. Also, he was carried out during the stretch run, and then proceeded to “lug in” a bit under pressure, as he attempted to improve his position. Street Sense continued willingly to the wire, losing a tight photo to Dominican, who excelled over Polytrack.
Little did we know then, but Street Sense’s narrow defeat at Keeneland, and his slim victory at Tampa off the layoff, would set him up perfectly for the Derby. After his Blue Grass defeat, Street Sense trained brilliantly, over what is arguably his favorite surface, the Churchill Downs main track. He also made a striking appearance in the morning, as he continued his quest for the Derby, and seemed poised to deliver what was likely to be a career best effort.
Street Sense would obviously benefit from a livelier pace scenario in the Kentucky Derby and from the change in venue. Also, it was a certainty that he would be nowhere near the early lead, which would only accentuate his closing kick. As Hard Spun dictated a sprightly pace on the front end, Street Sense took up residence at the back of the pack. With Calvin Borel simply biding his time, Street Sense began picking up runners one by one as he began to improve position down the backstretch. Never leaving the rail, Street Sense was within striking distance of the leaders racing around the far turn, as he constantly reduced his deficit with each and every stride. He was then angled off the inside and went after Hard Spun in earnest in the stretch and subsequently kicked into overdrive. The rest as they say is history. Street Sense sustained his rally, wrestling the lead away from a game Hard Spun, while drifting in a bit, as he gained command. He continued to edge clear in deep stretch, and was 2 1/4 lengths to the good at the finish.
Even with his victory in the Kentucky Derby, there were people who chose to emphasize Street Sense’s “dream run” down the backstretch, never leaving the inside part of the track, as he constantly made up ground. They also alluded to the fact, that both of his biggest accomplishments to date, have come at Churchill Downs. While both statements ring true, Street Sense did win “fair and square”. The James Tafel homebred runner did have to run down a loose-on-the-lead Hard Spun in the stretch, who grudgingly gave up the lead in the final 1/8th of a mile. Undeniably, Street Sense was “lucky” in the Derby, but he was also “good”. He delivered a prolonged rally to get within shouting distance of the pacesetters, and then had the wherewithal to finish the job, which is admirable and quite noteworthy in my opinion.
Each race is unique in its own way. And, the Preakness is no exception. If Street Sense is to win back-to-back jewels of the Triple Crown, he will in all likelihood have to display some versatility to get the job done. What has worked to perfection for him in the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, might not serve him as well in Baltimore. Pimlico is obviously more speed favoring than Churchill Downs. Street Sense’s come from the clouds style of running could be a bit of a disadvantage over this track. Street Sense may have to lay closer to the lead in the Preakness. He might not have the benefit of a ground-saving trip like the one he enjoyed in the Derby. Street Sense has yet to be defeated over a conventional dirt surface around two turns. He does not have to carry his racetrack around with him like some critics think, but, how the race unfolds in the Preakness, and the kind of trip Street Sense enjoys, could mean the difference between victory and defeat. Bottom line, Street Sense boasts the talent, determination and the capacity to win right back. He does need clear sailing to be at his best, and that could be problematic over a track like Pimilco. While he is apt to emerge with a victory today as the expected favorite, it is definitely not a certainty.
Third Selection: (4) CURLIN (Asmussen Steven M/Albarado R J)
Those who purchased my Kentucky Derby stakes package read in my race synopsis that I had a very difficult time deciding whether to pick Curlin or Street Sense to win. I felt that one of these two would be victorious. I also thought that both could run first, second, or third, with one of the top two winning. Therefore I felt that trifectas were the smartest wager to make, using who I felt, were the major contenders to round out the tri. I ended up selecting Curlin first and Street Sense second. My wagering strategy was correct. The payoff for the trifecta was $440.00. Sometimes you can be wrong and still show a nice profit on the wager which I did, even though I ended up picking Curling to win. The connections of Curlin have decided to try their luck again by entering him back in the Preakness.
I had strong reasons why I felt Curlin could win the Derby, despite many people feeling that he was too lightly race, had never faced this kind of competition and that history was against him. Their reasons ended up being correct as he was not victorious, but they were wrong to underestimate his ability and how well he fit with the Derby field. Even though Curlin was a no threat third, he did have major excuses. With a perfect trip, he was not going to beat Street Sense or Hard Spun. He would have certainly been closer to those two at the wire with an easier journey. I felt post two, which Curlin broke from, could be an advantage if he showed enough speed to get a contending position into the first turn and not be shuffled back, further off the pace, than he wanted to be. I also knew that there was a good chance that this might not happen. It ended up that Curlin’s fate was sealed soon after the start, when he was in tight and was forced to drop back well off the early leaders. He had to navigate through traffic and nineteen other rivals. Curlin was always out of striking position. When the field entered the stretch, he had to swing out very wide and rally from well back. In the final eighth of a mile, Curlin found a clear path and rallied late for third. Another stride he would have been fourth, as a longshot was finishing best of all.
What should we expect from Curlin in the Preakness? Being objective, which is sometimes difficult to do, I feel that there are reasons he is up against it. On Saturday Curlin will be running his fifth race in a little more than 3 ½ months, and that does not include all his workouts leading up to his debut and into the Derby. That averages out to about one race every three weeks. During this span, he will have run 7 furlongs, 1 1/16 miles, 1 1/8 miles and 1 ¼ miles. In the Preakness, Curlin will cut back to 1 3/16 miles. That’s a lot of traveling in such a short period of time.
Following the Derby, I felt that it was time for Curlin’s connections to give him some time off to recover from his very tough schedule and allow him to develop. The Haskell at Monmouth in the summer and/or the Travers at Saratoga could be two possibilities. If Curlin wins the Preakness off this brutal schedule, it would be amazing. There is no doubt that he is a quality thoroughbred, but running in the Preakness could hurt him down the road. We have seen many horses that run in the Derby or in both the Derby and Preakness, never recovering to be what they could have developed into.
Fourth Selection: (3) CIRCULAR QUAY (Pletcher Todd A/Velazquez J R)
Circular Quay entered the Kentucky Derby off a decisive victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, winning by more than two lengths. This was his initial success around two turns. The Michael and Doreen Tabor homebred runner uncorked a devastating late burst of speed to annex the Fair Grounds’ marquee race, and appeared primed for another top effort returning to Churchill Downs.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, Circular Quay was a graded stakes winner over the quirky Churchill Downs main track, and it appeared as though he would benefit from a solid pace, that seemed imminent, as well as the added distance. At least that’s the way it looked on paper. Unfortunately, it did not play out that way. Circular Quay never really got untracked in the Kentucky Derby, finishing a disappointing sixth, beaten nine lengths. The son of Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch passed tired horses, while improving his position, but his closing kick was conspicuous by its absence. He was unable sustain his rally into stretch, giving ground as Street Sense and Hard Spun distanced themselves from the field in the stretch run.
Without much of an excuse, Circular Quay’s performance in the Kentucky Derby left much to be desired. Maybe it was the fact that he had not raced in eight weeks, and was just a tad rusty. Whatever the reason was for his atypical showing, he most assuredly can improve upon his Louisville effort. However, it is still difficult to imagine than he can do any better than compete for a minor award. While the jury is still out as to whether Circular Quay is a late-running sprinter, or a legitimate route runner, how he performs in the Preakness today, should make it clearer as to what side of the aisle Circular Quay belongs.
Fifth Selection: (5) KING OF THE ROXY (Pletcher Todd A/Gomez G K)
It’s hard to imagine that King of the Roxy was ever really on the Derby trail, as the Todd-Pletcher trained runner had yet to run well over a route of ground, never mind win at a distance. So it really came as no surprise to anyone when that he made his three-year-old debut in the Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes on March 3 at Gulfstream Park at 7 1/2 furlongs. Despite a slow start and a wide trip that day, King of the Roxy overcame both of those obstacles to score off the layoff. King Of The Roxy emerged victorious by a 2 1/4 decisive lengths in very good time for his connections.
With Scat Daddy slated to compete in the Grade 1 Florida Derby later in the month over the Gulfstream Park track, Pletcher elected to head west with King of the Roxy, selecting the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 7 for his next start. Purchased for a measly $8,000 as a yearling, this would be King of the Roxy’s initial start at Santa Anita Park, and only his second race around two turns. He had failed miserably in his two-turn debut in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2006 at Churchill Downs. How well he performed at Santa Anita, going nine furlongs, would go a long way in determining how far he was able to carry his speed.
In the Santa Anita Derby, King of the Roxy drew an outside post. He tracked the early pacesetters while racing a bit wide and losing valuable ground down the backstretch. Leaving the far turn, Jockey Richard Migliore asked him for a bit more run. King of the Roxy responded willingly to eventually gain a tenuous advantage at the midstretch point. However, King of the Roxy had to work hard to gain command. That, coupled with the fact that this was just his second start of the year, as he stretched out to 1 1/8 miles, had begun to take a toll on him. He was powerless to withstand the late rally of Tiago in the final yards, but had acquitted himself quite well in defeat, finishing a strong second. Pletcher, who would subsequently start five horses in the Kentucky Derby, bypassed the run for the roses with King of the Roxy, and settled on the Preakness instead. While it was obviously a prudent decision, it is still debatable as to whether he can compete at this level of competition, particularly over 1 3/16 miles. That said, King of the Roxy has continued to train well in the interim, and should be within striking distance of the pacesetters from the outset. He has never won around two turns, and the probability that he can handle the likes of Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin today is unlikely. An on-the-board finish is possible, and I will use him underneath in trifectas only. King Of The Roxy would have to improve by leaps and bounds since his Santa Anita Derby effort in March to be afforded any chance of coming away with a win.
The Remainder of the Field (In order of preference)
(9) C P WEST (Zito Nicholas P/Prado E S)
Last summer at Saratoga, trainer Nick Zito uncharacteristically sent out several well bred horses to break their maiden first asking. Zito had shown in the past that he wins a much higher percentage of races with two years olds in their second or third career starts. C P West was one of the better looking debut winners for Zito at the Spa. Zito was high on this colt right from the start. It was not unexpected that he wheeled C P West back in the Grade 2 futurity at Belmont Park. Facing the more experienced King Of The Roxy, C P West ran an excellent second, beaten less than a length by that rival. Off that fine effort, Zito decided that the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile would be C P West’s next stop.
He would have plenty of support in the Breeders Cup, going off at 10-1, despite stretching out to two turns for the first time off only a maiden win and over the quirky Churchill Downs strip. C P West finished a well beaten sixth, beaten twenty two lengths. On first glance it appears that his performance was dismal, but on closer inspection, his effort was not as bad as it looks. Early in the race, he was forced to take up, losing all momentum. C P West made a nice middle move, but flattened out badly in the stretch. I was willing to throw the race out and give him another chance. His opportunity wouldn’t come until nearly five months later, when he made his three year old debut in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. C P West was beaten a nose at the seven furlong distance. It was a fine return which would set him up nicely for his next start in the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct. C P West rallied to be a no threat second as the 9-5 favorite.
Trainer Nick Zito must always be respected in Triple Crown races. He did not have any bullets to fire in the Derby. He has one left with C P West, but he would have to improve noticeably to be a factor in the Preakness. He lone win was at six furlongs. C P West has clearly shown at this point in his career that the 1 3/16 mile distance against more proven competition will be his undoing.
(6) FLYING FIRST CLASS (Lukas D Wayne/Guidry M)
Trainer Wayne Lukas opted to keep Flying First Class out of the Kentucky Derby, following an easy win in the Derby Trial at Churchill Downs run a week earlier. Flying First Class made his debut going two turns at Turfway Park last September. Despite being sent off at 20-1, he showed good speed and ran on well to be a clear second. Lukas decided to give him 4 ½ months off to have him ready to launch his three year old campaign with an eye towards the Kentucky Derby. Lukas cut him back to six furlongs at Oaklawn Park and the result was a scintillating eight length win in blazing time. If Flying First Class could replicate that performance stretching out to two turns, Lukas could begin thinking seriously about pointing him to the Derby. Off his maiden win, Flying First Class got his opportunity one month later, stepping up from his maiden win, to the Grade 3 Rebel, also at Oaklawn. He was sent off the 7-5 favorite against Curlin who was shipping in from Gulfstream Park off a similar “eye opening” win in his debut.
Breaking from an inside post, Flying First class was unable to get the lead and was forced to chase in second. New rider Edgar Prado asked him for run on the far turn and he was able to move alongside the pacesetter. His threat for the lead was short lived. Flying First Class started fading steadily through the stretch, finishing eighth, beaten thirteen lengths. He had failed miserably in his first attempt at a route. Lukas decided to give Flying First Class a chance to redeem himself one month later in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby. As soon as the gate opened, he was bothered by a horse that came in on him. For the first time, Flying First Class would have to rally from off the pace to make an impact. Similar to the Rebel, he made a nice middle move to get into contending position, but flattened out badly to finish a well beaten sixth.
Of his poor showings in the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby, it was impossible to imagine that Lukas had a Derby prospect. You could not blame these two dismal performances on the race track because Flying First Class broke his maiden over the course. Lukas shipped him to Churchill Downs with the idea of wheeling him back in the Derby Trial fourteen days later. That is exactly what he did and the result was a return to winning form, with an authoritative score at 6-1. The key to his victory was the cut back to a one turn route. Obviously a start in the Kentucky Derby, one week later, stretching out to 1 ¼ miles, would end up being detrimental for this colt. Lukas decided that the Preakness was the race to point for.
The best chance for Flying First Class to make an impact on Saturday is to get the lead early. He has shown that if forced to chase, he loses all interest when the real racing begins. Even if he does clear to the lead early, he will face intense pressure when several other horses with tactical speed begin to make their move midway on the far turn. Both his victories have been around one turn. It is unlikely that he can carry his speed the entire 1 3/16 mile distance against better horses.
(2) XCHANGER (Shuman Mark/Dominguez R A)
Xchanger earned a spot in the Preakness field with a blow out victory in the Federico Tesio over the Pimlico strip at the 1 1/8 mile distance. Any time a horse has a strong race over the track, it can only benefit him. In this case, no one else in the field has ever raced at Pimlico. Even with this important edge, is it enough for Xchanger to be a factor in the Preakness?
Xchanger broke his maiden first time out in fast time at Monmouth Park last summer. He was boosted in class right into the Grade 3 Sapling, also run over that track. It is always difficult to win a stake off only a maiden win, but Xchanger did just that, despite being bumped hard at the 1/8th pole. Six weeks later his connections decided to jump into the deep waters, shipping into Belmont Park for the prestigious Grade 1 Champagne. Xchanger was completely ignored at the windows. Sent off at 37-1, it was obvious that he stood little chance to be a factor. He had never faced anywhere near this competition. Xchanger’s two wins came at 6 furlongs. In the Champagne he was asked to travel a flat mile. He showed no speed and was far back throughout. Twenty days later Xchanger came back in the Grade 3 Nashua at Aqueduct and was a no threat third. He finished his two year old campaign in a Grade 3 stake at Delta Downs where he ran an even third once again.
Off his two year old form, there was little chance that he could be considered a possible Kentucky Derby entrant. Xchanger made his two year old debut in the Southwest Stakes. Breaking from the rail going a mile, he had some trouble, but once again was no threat from the eighth pole to the wire. He would really get tested in the Grade 3 Rebel at Oaklawn Park. Xchanger showed new tactics that afternoon. He established a clear early lead but faltered badly. The winner Curlin blew by him on the turn as if he was standing still. Off his two year and three year old form up to this point, his connections would have been better served to find a much weaker spot to get his confidence back. This would not be the case as Xchanger was wheeled back in the Federico Tesio. He showed a fondness for the Pimlico surface with a decisive front running win in quick time while being geared down in the late stages.
It is clear that Xchanger likes the front end. He also has that important strong race over the track. In the Preakness, Xchanger will once again be put on the engine from the start. Unlike the Tesio where he opened up an eight length lead into the stretch, there is no way I can envision him not to be pressured hard on the far turn. When this happens, and he is passed, Xchanger will fade badly. He will not be included in any of my suggested wagers.
(1) MINT SLEWLEP (Bailes W Robert/Garcia A)
Mint Slewlep’s claim to fame is a maiden win in slow time against a weak field and a front running victory in an entry allowance race. Both races were run at a flat mile at Laurel. In both Grade 3 stakes he has run in, Mint Slewlep raced evenly, without threatening at any point in the race. He has by far the lowest earnings of any horse in the Preakness field. Even though trainer Robert Bailes is a competent trainer, this is a ridiculous spot. He will be up the track, and is not going to be used on any of my suggested wagers.
Wagering Strategy
As I have written in great detail, Hard Spun and Street Sense are the two horses I am keying in trifectas and one superfecta. I am also suggesting a win bet on my top selection, Hard Spun. On one trifecta ticket I will include Curlin, who I feel is the only threat to upset the two favorites. I do not want to get involved in exactas, as I rather put my money on tri's, where I can spread a little, and possibly get a better score, especially if one of the outsiders sneak into the ticket. Each trifecta and the superfecta are listed in $1.00 increments. Obviously you can wager more if you want to, but remember to never wager more than what you are comfortable with.
Win bet on # 7 HARD SPUN.
*** TRIFECTAS ***
$1.00 TRIFECTA: 7-8 / 3-4-5-7-8 / 3-4-5-7-8 = $24.00
$1.00 TRIFECTA: 4-7-8 / 4-7-8 / 3-4-5-7-8 = $18.00
$1.00 TRIFECTA: 7-8 / 3-4-7-8 / 3-4-5-7-8 = $18.00
$1.00 TRIFECTA: 7-8 / 4-7-8 / 3-4-5-7-8 = $12.00
$2.00 TRIFECTA BOX: 4-7-8 = $12.00
Total Trifecta Wager = $84.00
*** SUPERFECTA ***
$1.00 SUPERFECTA: 7-8 / 4-7-8 / 3-4-5-7-8 / 3-4-5-7-8 = $24.00
Golden Contender
Gc- Preakness Plays, Im Not Gonna Write A Novel For Everyone To Scroll Through, Im Taking Street Sense , But Im Not Playing Win- Im Using Him Over Circular Quay, Curlin, And King Of The Roxy, In Exactas, Triples,and A Superfecta Part Wheel, After Looking At The Numbers, The Probble Horse Who Will Lead And Stalk,and Close This Si What I Came Up With, I Like Horses That Have Run In The Derby, As They Seem To Win The Preakness More Often Than Not, Second And Third Is More Of A Crap Shoot, I Think Hard Spun May Get Cooked By The 2 Horse Xchanger, And I Think Stone Cold Closer King Of The Roxy Could Pick Up The Pieces Late, Bol Gc-
Saturday Horse Racing Spot Pixx
<HR style="COLOR: #d1dae1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
DIXIE S. (G2), 10TH-PIM, $250,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/8MT, 4:22 P.M. EDT, 5-19
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 CAN'T BEAT IT WOLFSON MARTIN D BEJARANO R 124
2 GENERAL JUMBO (GB) MOTION H GRAHAM VELAZQUEZ J R 118
3 COSMONAUT BIANCONE PATRICK L PRADO E S 124
4 DREADNAUGHT VOSS THOMAS H SAMYN J L 118
5 SILVER TREE MOTT WILLIAM I NO RIDER 122
6 WOODLANDER CONTESSA GARY C GARCIA A 120
7 STAY CLOSE (GB) ZWIESLER MICHAEL NO RIDER 118
8 WOOD BE WILLING MATZ MICHAEL R FOGELSONGER R 118
9 EINSTEIN (BRZ) PITTS HELEN ALBARADO R J 124
10 OUTPERFORMANCE VIOLETTE RICHARD JR GOMEZ G K 120
11 MENDING FENCES WOLFSON MARTIN D CASTRO E 124
12 REMARKABLE NEWS (VEN) PENNA ANGEL JR DOMINGUEZ R A 122
Saturday's $250,000 Dixie S. (G2) on Preakness Day at Pimlico promises to be a highly competitive turf affair, with several of the 12 entrants capable of taking top honors in the 1 1/8-mile test. Adding to the uncertainty is the state of the ground, which could have some give to it if the forecast rain materializes. The horse best able to handle the widest range of variables is COSMONAUT (Lemon Drop Kid), so we'll peg the Patrick Biancone charge at a generous 9-2 on the morning line.
Cosmonaut's lone graded stakes victory on the grass came in last year's Arlington H. (G3) on soft ground, but the rangy gray has turned in commendable efforts on firm turf as well, consistently posting triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings. He finished a sneakily good fifth in the Arlington Million S. (G1) after being wiped out at the start, and he was a close fourth in both the Shadwell Turf Mile S. (G1) and Citation H. (G1). Cosmonaut kicked off his 2007 campaign with an effortless allowance score at Keeneland, and that outing should set him up well for a top performance here. A versatile type who tends to be forwardly placed, he projects a ground-saving trip beneath a returning Edgar Prado.
DREADNAUGHT (Lac Ouimet) turned in a career-best effort in the 2006 Dixie, just going down by a head to the classy Better Talk Now (Talkin Man). The veteran gelding has finished a sharp second in both of his starts this season, including a near-miss in the Ft. Lauderdale S. in his 2007 bow. The nine-furlong trip suits him well (6-1-2-2), and he can deliver a potent late kick regardless of the pace scenario. It would be no surprise if the Tom Voss trainee outruns his 10-1 odds with Jean-Luc Samyn.
EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck) is a bit of a question mark, as he wheels back on two weeks' rest after a dull seventh in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S. (G1). The 3-1 morning-line favorite turned in sterling performances earlier this season, however. After his excellent third when trying to defend his title in the Gulfstream Park Breeders' Cup Turf S. (G1), Einstein overcame a circus-like trip to take the Mervin H. Muniz Jr. Memorial H. (G2) at Fair Grounds. Trainer Helen Pitts said that Einstein was dealing with throat issues that compromised him last time out. We won't leave him out of our top three, but until he shows us that he's back to his best, we'd prefer to use him underneath. Robby Albarado will be back aboard.
MENDING FENCES (Forestry), a 10-1 outsider with an upset chance, has improved markedly since switching to the Marty Wolfson barn. The confirmed front runner could wind up on an uncontested lead, just as he did when capturing the John B. Connally Breeders' Cup Turf H. (G3) on yielding ground in his latest. This is a sizeable step up in class, but he did finish second to English Channel (Smart Strike) in an allowance two back. His early speed makes him dangerous, and Mending Fences could last a long way beneath Eddie Castro. Grade 3 winner OUTPERFORMANCE (Aptitude) had the misfortune of chasing Showing Up (Strategic Mission) a couple of times last year. He returned with a rallying fourth in a Keeneland allowance, and his pedigree strongly suggests that he'll improve as a four-year-old. Although Outperformance would have to step up dramatically to get involved here, it's noteworthy that Garrett Gomez picks up the mount.
SILVER TREE (Hennessy), in contrast, has plenty of back class, and if he runs up to his best, would crack the top three. He doesn't handle soft ground, though, as illustrated by his subpar fifth to Mending Fences in the Connally, and he was unplaced in his only prior try over the course in the 2004 Dixie. If he's not inconvenienced by the ground, Silver Tree could well beat us. REMARKABLE NEWS (Ven) (Chayim) holds the key to the pace, but conditioner Angel Penna Jr. has indicated that he may scratch after drawing post 12. As if the post isn't bad enough, Remarkable News won't get the luxury of dictating on the front end. If he runs, the speedy chestnut would ensure an honest tempo with Mending Fences, and the pair would likely soften each other up.
CAN'T BEAT IT (Atticus), Wolfson's other runner, has looked smart on occasion, but he has an inconsistent streak that makes him frustrating to follow. WOODLANDER (Forestry) is coming off a solid win in the Fort Marcy H. (G3) in his first start for Gary Contessa. This is a far tougher group, however, so we'll watch him on the class rise. GENERAL JUMBO (GB) (Dansili [GB]) wants a much longer trip, and as much as we respect Graham Motion, we can't see him springing a surprise in his seasonal reappearance. STAY CLOSE (Belong to Me) captured the Henry Clark S. over the course last time out, but he faces a much stiffer assignment in this spot. WOOD BE WILLING (Pulpit) has been beaten in his last six turf starts, five of them versus allowance/optional claiming company.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-COSMONAUT
2nd-DREADNAUGHT
3rd-EINSTEIN (Brz)
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
MARYLAND BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT H. (G3), 8TH-PIM, $200,000, 3YO/UP, 6F, 2:49 P.M. EDT, 5-19
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 SEMAPHORE MAN VON HEMEL KELLY ALBARADO R J 116
2 DIABOLICAL KLESARIS STEVE PINO M G 120
3 CELTIC INNIS KEEFE TIMOTHY L VELAZQUEZ J R 114
4 SIR CLASSIC CHRIS LEATHERBURY KING T NO RIDER 112
5 FIRST WORD FRANKEL ROBERT J BEJARANO R 114
6 FLEET VALID TROMBETTA MICHAEL J PRADO E S 114
7 TALENT SEARCH SHUMAN MARK FOGELSONGER R 115
8 EURO CODE LAKE SCOTT A DOMINGUEZ R A 114
A field of eight has been entered to go six furlongs in Saturday's $200,000 Maryland Breeders' Cup Sprint H. (G3) at Pimlico, and it appears to be a three-horse race. SEMAPHORE MAN (Formal Gold), DIABOLICAL (Artax) and TALENT SEARCH (Catienus) all have a valid chance at showing up in the winner's circle, and we're going with the latter to come out on top while making his graded debut.
Talent Search began his career in the maiden claiming ranks, but a 6 1/2-length victory in his debut was more than enough for his connections to move him into allowance company next out. After another easy win, the chestnut was transferred to trainer Mark Shuman, who started him in his first stakes last November. After a second in the Sophomore Sprint Championship S., Talent Search spent his next four races battling allowance/optional claiming company, posting exceptional BRIS Speed ratings of 102 and 107 in the process. The four-year-old was moved back to stakes company last out and rewarded that decision with a dominating six-length, front-running victory in the Jim McKay Sprint S. at Pimlico while garnering a 111 Speed figure. Four of his five lifetime victories have come at Saturday's six-furlong distance, and Talent Search could make it three in a row here under regular rider Ryan Fogelsonger.
Semaphore Man earned his first stakes score when taking the King Cotton S. in his five-year-old debut in February. Since then, the Kelly Von Hemel-trained gelding has just missed when second in the Hot Springs S. and Count Fleet Sprint H. (G3), with all three starts this year coming at Oaklawn Park. The dark bay garnered a 105 Speed as well as 101 BRIS Late and E2 Pace ratings for his half-length runner-up finish in the Count Fleet last out, but we're a little wary on backing in his first try at Pimlico. Semaphore Man has plenty of experience racing over different tracks in the past, but all five of his career wins have come at Oaklawn. Nevertheless, he'll be tough in this spot and could easily fill out the exacta with Robby Albarado getting the call.
Diabolical's last win came in the Gallant Bob H. last fall at Philadelphia Park, and the Steve Klesaris charge was then pitted against some of the best in the sprint division for his last three. He finished just three parts of a length back of Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) hero and champion sprinter Thor's Echo (Swiss Yodeler) in the Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash S. (G1) in November, returned in March to run a length back in third of Half Ours (Unbridled's Song) in the Richter Scale Breeders' Cup Sprint Championship H. (G2) and was a 1 1/4-length runner-up in the Carter H. (G1) behind Silver Wagon (Wagon Limit) last out in early April. Diabolical consistently posts triple-digit E2 Pace figures and earned a field-best 112 Speed rating for his Gallant Bob victory. Our only knock against him is that all but two of his career wins have come at a mile or more. The chestnut four-year-old may prefer a bit more ground than the three-quarters he'll be running Saturday, but is a definite threat to complete the exotics with Mario Pino holding the reins.
FLEET VALID (Montbrook) is lightly raced, making just six starts since beginning his career in 2005. However, the four-year-old colt captured four of those races and placed in the other two. Trained by Michael Trombetta, the chestnut is used to having the lead, but we can't see him getting the jump on our top pick. Fleet Valid is still a contender for a top-three finish in his stakes bow with Edgar Prado aboard. CELTIC INNIS (Yarrow Brae) is a six-furlong specialist, finishing in the top three in 14 of his 19 starts at the distance. The dark bay was third to our top pick in the Jim McKay last out and could grab a share under jockey John Velazquez.
EURO CODE (Forestry), well back in second in the Jim McKay most recently, doesn't look fast enough to challenge against these. FIRST WORD (Chester House) hasn't been competitive against stakes company in the past and we don't see him reversing that form here. SIR CLASSIC CHRIS (Catienus) appears to be way out of his class in this spot.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-TALENT SEARCH
2nd-SEMAPHORE MAN
3rd-DIABOLICAL
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
SHUVEE H. (G2), 8TH-BEL, $150,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1M, 4:48 P.M. EDT, 5-19
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 SWAP FLIPAROO JERKENS H ALLEN ROJAS R I 116
2 RAHYS' APPEAL BUSH THOMAS M ARROYO N JR 116
3 SUGAR SHAKE FRANKEL ROBERT J COA E M 118
4 LAST ROMANCE DUTROW RICHARD E CASTELLANO J J 114
5 TEAMMATE JERKENS H ALLEN VELASQUEZ CORNE 116
6 SILMARIL GROVE CHRISTOPHER W DESORMEAUX K J 115
Both SUGAR SHAKE (Awesome Again) and SWAP FLIPAROO (Exchange Rate) were withdrawn by their respective connections from Friday's Allaire DuPont Breeders' Cup Distaff S. (G2) at Pimlico in favor of Saturday's $150,000 Shuvee H. (G2) at Belmont Park. Considering that the former filly earned her first two career victories at Big Sandy, we're going to tab her on top while going against five rivals in the mile test.
Sugar Shake broke her maiden by 3 1/4 lengths in front-running fashion at Belmont last May, then returned to that same track in June to take an allowance/optional claiming event by 6 1/2 lengths. Both of those starts came at a mile, and the Bobby Frankel-trained four-year-old was then thrown to the wolves when taking on the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) going 10 furlongs next out. Finishing a well-beaten seventh that day, Sugar Shake was given a slight break but showed she needed more time to recover from that beating when finishing second by 5 3/4 lengths against allowance rivals at her preferred eight-furlong distance. The bay miss wasn't seen again until November, taking an allowance at Churchill Downs, and returned to graded competition two back in the El Encino S. (G2). Taking the lead from the start, Sugar Shake showed her heart when headed in the stretch, fighting back to take the victory by a length. She was easily the best in the Santa Maria H. (G1) last out, earning a career-best 102 BRIS Speed rating, and looks poised to added a fourth straight win to her record here. Eibar Coa will be aboard for the first time.
Swap Fliparoo is a runner-up specialist at Belmont, owning five seconds from nine starts on the Elmont, New York, track. The gray miss has spent much of her career in the sprinting ranks, but did earn an easy 6 1/4-length victory in the Sabin H. (G3) going a mile three back at Gulfstream Park. Since then, the Allen Jerkens charge has been third in the Rampart H. (G2) and Bed o' Roses Breeders' Cup H. (G2), and could show more here, especially after posting a bullet three furlongs in :34 3/5 on Belmont's training track Thursday. Swap Fliparoo could challenge for it all under Raul Rojas.
RAHYS' APPEAL (Rahy) is another who could move forward while returning to the eight-furlong distance. The Tom Bush-conditioned five-year-old tried the Apple Blossom H. (G1) last out, finishing a nice fifth after being steadied and blocked. Prior to that, she ran third to our top pick in the Santa Maria, and owns a win from last season's Top Flight H. (G2) at Aqueduct going a mile. Her only other start at a mile on the dirt came when she broke her maiden, and the bay mare posted an easy 8 1/2-length victory in the 2005 Ticonderoga H. in her only start on Belmont's dirt. Rahys' Appeal is an accomplished runner on both turf and dirt, and has the ability to threaten our top two picks for the victory.
Grade 3 winner SILMARIL (Diamond) has finished off the board only once from her last 10 starts, most recently running second in the Northview Stallion Station S. at Pimlico. It's somewhat puzzling why the the Christopher Grove-trained six-year-old is competing at Belmont on Saturday considering all of her stakes wins have come either at Pimlico or Laurel, but the dark bay mare has been going well enough of late to make a run in the exotics here. Silmaril posted a nice 103 Speed rating when second by only three parts of a length in the Barbara Fritchie Breeders' Cup H. (G2) in February and should be considered for the top three.
TEAMMATE (A.P. Indy) is a game runner who captured her 2007 bow last out off a six-month break. The four-year-old miss always gives her all, but might need another race and seems to prefer a bit more distance. We'll let her beat us. LAST ROMANCE (Wild Rush) hasn't been able to handle this level of competition in the past and we don't see her doing so here.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-SUGAR SHAKE
2nd-SWAP FLIPAROO
3rd-RAHYS' APPEAL
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
WILLIAM DONALD SCHAEFER H. (G3), 11TH-PIM, $100,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/8M, 5:10 P.M. EDT, 5-19
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 RYAN'S FOR REAL ALECCI JOHN V DOMINGUEZ R A 114
2 TWO SIXTY FOUR KEEFE TIMOTHY L FOGELSONGER R 112
3 TAKE THE BLUFF VIOLETTE RICHARD JR GOMEZ G K 112
4 URBAN CONQUEST BAZEOS PETER KARAMANOS H A 111
5 SMELLING SALTS DENNIS LAURA NO RIDER 109
6 BELONGS TO JOE GORHAM MICHAEL E ROCCO J 112
7 HESANOLDSALT ZITO NICHOLAS P PRADO E S 117
8 SUNRIVER PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 117
9 FLASHY BULL MCLAUGHLIN KIARAN P GARCIA A 114
The nine-furlong William Donald Schaefer H. (G3) will be decided immediately before the 132nd running the Preakness S. (G1), and HESANOLDSALT (Broad Brush), a full brother to Grade 1 winner Mongoose, easily rates our top choice.
In his most recent start, Hesanoldsalt raced forwardly in a pocket along the rail, advanced along the inside around the second turn, then finished gamely for runner-up honors to Corinthian (Pulpit) in the 1 3/16-mile Gulfstream Park H. (G2). Before that, the dark bay colt was well back in the early running, rallied four wide around the second turn, then closed determinedly, finishing second to Horse of the Year Invasor (Arg) (Candy Stripes) in the nine-furlong Donn H. (G1). Interestingly, Hesanoldsalt galloped out alongside Invasor in the Donn.
Hesanoldsalt has won his last two starts on an off track, including a 3 1/4-length triumph in the nine-furlong Fred W. Hooper H. (G3) on a sealed, sloppy track at Calder, and a victory going nine furlongs at Saratoga. He earned a 108 BRIS Speed rating in the Hooper, and a career-best 109 Speed figure on a good track in the second-level allowance race at the Spa. Trainer Nick Zito is known for running his horses in jar caulks, and with the strong possibility of rain in the forecast, that would only help Hesanoldsalt, who gets a rider change to Edgar Prado.
SUNRIVER (Saint Ballado), a full brother to champion Ashado, defeated Lewis Michael (Rahy) by a neck in last year's Peter Pan S. (G2) before finishing a good third in the Belmont S. (G1). The Todd Pletcher-trained colt finished a better-than-appears third, chasing undefeated Pegasus S. (G3) winner Diamond Stripes (Notebook), in his return to action at Aqueduct and figures to move forward in a big way in this spot. Our only concern is that in two previous starts on a sloppy, sealed track, Sunriver finished a distant sixth in the Jim Dandy S. (G2) and seventh in the Holy Bull S. (G3). He is, however, bred to relish the off going and rates our sleeper.
RYAN'S FOR REAL (Sword Dance [Ire]) has improved dramatically since being claimed for $25,000 by owner-trainer John Alecci last September. The bay gelding set the early pace before holding on well for third, beaten 2 3/4 lengths, in the seven-furlong General George Breeders' H. (G2), then rolled to a daylight victory in a high-level overnight event on a sloppy, sealed track at Laurel Park. In his most recent outing, Ryan's for Real raced around at the back of a tightly bunched field in the highly competitive Commonwealth Breeders' Cup S. (G2) at Keeneland, which was his first start on Polytrack. He won his only start, albeit against lesser, at this distance and could add value to the vertical exotics.
Grade 2-placed FLASHY BULL (Holy Bull) comes off back-to-back victories against first- and second-level allowance sorts around one turn. The gray colt, who is winless in six starts at this distance, must overcome the outside post and has the look of an underlay as the 7-2 second choice on the morning line.
TAKE THE BLUFF (Pine Bluff) comes off back-to-back route victories and defeated Belmont S. (G1) winner Jazil (Seeking the Gold) in his seasonal debut. The Richard Violette Jr. trainee has not raced for more than three months, but gets a key rider change to Garrett Gomez. BELONGS TO JOE (Belong to Me) is a solid third-level allowance runner who exits a sharp two-turn score at Delaware Park. The speedy TWO SIXTY FOUR (Dance Brightly) finished a non-threatening third to Ryan's for Real two back and figures to be forwardly placed. He owns an 8-4-2-1 record on this surface. All three of these are worth a second look for the bottom of the vertical exotics.
The speedy SMELLING SALTS (Two Punch) comes off three straight victories against lesser but would be a surprise at this level. URBAN CONQUEST (Victory Gallop) has run for a claiming tag on many occasions and appears overmatched.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-HESANOLDSALT
2nd-SUNRIVER
3rd-RYAN'S FOR REAL
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
GALLORETTE H. (G3), 7TH-PIM, $100,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1 1/16MT, 2:06 P.M. EDT, 5-19
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 A TRUE PUSSYCAT BUSH THOMAS M GARCIA A 116
2 COZY GAIN SMALL RICHARD W GARCIA LUIS 113
3 AUNT HENNY MATZ MICHAEL R PRADO E S 116
4 GRIGORIEVA (IRE) MOTION H GRAHAM DOMINGUEZ R A 114
5 PRECIOUS KITTEN FRANKEL ROBERT J BEJARANO R 122
6 TRICK'S PIC BIANCONE PATRICK L GOMEZ G K 114
7 HIGH MOMENT JENKINS RODNEY RODRIGUEZ E D 114
8 DEBBIE SUE SMITH HAMILTON A ROSE J 113
9 HUMORISTIC SMITH HAMILTON A MARQUEZ C H JR 114
10 ROSHANI PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 111
11 FEELIN' THE BREEZE ELAMRI HASSAN KARAMANOS H A 111
Eleven fillies and mares will contest Saturday's $100,000 Gallorette H. (G3) at Pimlico, and GRIGORIEVA (Ire) (Woodman) looks primed to star on the Preakness undercard. A half-sister to multiple Group 1 king Electrocutionist, Grigorieva began her career with Andre Fabre in France. The chestnut captured the listed Prix des Lilas in slashing style at Saint-Cloud last June, then unsuccessfully took on the brilliant Mandesha (Desert Style) in a pair of group events. Grigorieva was promoted to second in the Prix Chloe (Fr-G3) and finished a creditable sixth in the Prix d'Astarte (Fr-G1), just one spot behind subsequent Matriarch S. (G1) heroine Price Tag (GB) (Dansili [GB]).
In her U.S. debut for Graham Motion, Grigorieva missed the break but closed furiously for second in the one-mile Dahlia S. last month. She figures to be sharper this time around, and the likely fast pace and extra sixteenth of a mile can only be to her advantage. Also, she gets in with only 114 pounds, eight fewer than PRECIOUS KITTEN (Catienus). Ramon Dominguez picks up the mount on Grigorieva, who is equally adept on firm or soft ground.
Grade 2 winner Precious Kitten deserves credit for consistency, but with her top weight of 122 pounds, and at a skimpy 8-5 on the morning line, she's worth opposing in this spot. The half-sister to 2004 champion turf horse Kitten's Joy has been in fine form this year. After finishing an honorable runner-up to champion Wait a While (Maria's Mon) in the Honey Fox H. (G3), the Bobby Frankel trainee was just caught late by My Typhoon (Ire) (Giant's Causeway) in the off-the-turf Jenny Wiley S. (G2) most recently. Precious Kitten can be relied upon to give her typically genuine effort, but we don't think she's eight pounds better than Grigorieva. Note that her only unplaced effort on the turf came on good going at Ellis Park, so she could be compromised by give in the ground. Regular rider Rafael Bejarano returns to the saddle.
AUNT HENNY (Hennessy) was among the better three-year-old turf fillies in 2006. A rank fourth in the Honey Fox in her seasonal reappearance, she moved forward off that effort when second to the undefeated Vacare (Lear Fan) in the Magna Distaff S. A repeat of her last would put her in the top three here. The Michael Matz pupil gets a rider switch to Edgar Prado.
ROSHANI (Fantastic Light) is two-for-two since transferring to Todd Pletcher, but she has only a turf maiden score and a Polytrack allowance victory to her credit. On the plus side, Pletcher scratched her from Thursday's Steal a Kiss S. at Belmont Park, preferring this spot, and she fired a bullet over the deep Oklahoma training track last Saturday at Saratoga. Roshani is eligible to sneak into the exotics, but given her connections, she could also prove to be an underlay. HIGH MOMENT (High Yield) was the loose-on-the-lead pacesetter who just held on from Grigorieva in the Dahlia. She will have plenty of company on the front end here, however, and that will make it tougher for her to hang on for a share. DEBBIE SUE (Citidancer) is much better on the turf, and the 20-1 shot could come from the clouds for a minor award.
HUMORISTIC (Sefapiano) just missed in last year's Gallorette, but she hasn't threatened to win since and was a well beaten fifth in the Dahlia. A TRUE PUSSYCAT's (Yes It's True) dirt form is vastly better than her turf form; unless this is transferred to the main track, she looks up against it. TRICK'S PIC (Favorite Trick) should fuel the early pace before fading. COZY GAIN (Cozzene) and FEELIN' THE BREEZE (Belong to Me) haven't done anything to recommend them at this level.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-GRIGORIEVA (Ire)
2nd-PRECIOUS KITTEN
3rd-AUNT HENNY
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
WILL ROGERS S. (G3), 9TH-HOL, $100,000, 3YO, 1MT, 5:55 P.M. PDT, 5-19
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 SEVENGOLDNMISSILES MANDELLA GARY VALDIVIA J JR 115
2 WORLDLY (GB) CECIL B D A ESPINOZA V 119
3 HURRY HOME WARREN MENDOZA JESUS NAKATANI C S 115
4 LADDIES POKER CERIN VLADIMIR COHEN DAVID 117
5 CANDY'S BRO HOLLENDORFER JERRY MIGLIORE R 115
6 SILENT SOUL HOFMANS DAVID BAZE M C 119
7 MAYOR BOZARTH FRANKEL ROBERT J BLANC B 119
8 YARIO (IRE) HARTY EOIN FLORES D R 115
Eight turf sophomores will contest Saturday's $100,000 Will Rogers S. (G3) at Hollywood Park, and we'll give a slight edge to the Bobby Frankel-trained MAYOR BOZARTH (Deputy Commander), who exits a second in the Grindstone S. at Fair Grounds. The dark bay colt wound up on the lead that afternoon, but both of his wins have come when rating just off the pace. With the speed in this field, he figures to sit the perfect trip under Brice Blanc, and Mayor Bozarth has captured his last two starts at the one-mile distance. He could prove impossible to get past in the stretch.
YARIO (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) recorded a sharp score when making his U.S. debut in an about 6 1/2-furlong allowance/optional claiming event last out, earning a 100 BRIS Late Pace rating when closing from next-to-last in the 12-horse field to win by a length, and the Eoin Harty charge could offer another strong late rally while stretching out to a mile on Saturday.
LADDIES POKER (Stravinsky) is another former European making his U.S. stakes debut off a sharp victory in his first start stateside. He broke his maiden last time, winning a one-mile special weight event at Santa Anita by three lengths, and stamped himself as a three-year-old turf horse to watch off that effort. We're inclined to use him on the bottom of the exotics, but the gray colt looks dangerous.
SILENT SOUL (Afternoon Deelites) exits an entry level, one-mile allowance win as the 3-5 favorite and finished a good second to Whatsthescript (Ire) (Royal Applause [GB]) in the Pasadena S. earlier this year. Silent Soul can't be eliminated from win consideration. WORLDLY (GB) (Selkirk) cuts back in distance off a visually impressive score in his U.S. bow, and he's a threat to move forward off that effort. We just wonder if he wants a little more ground.
CANDY'S BRO (E Dubai) will likely show speed under Richard Migliore, and the quick colt exits a couple of decent efforts on the turf. We'll watch to see how he handles this class hike. SEVENGOLDNMISSILES (Golden Missile) was no match for a couple of these rivals last time and has finished out of the money in his last two starts.
HURRY HOME WARREN (Mancini) will be a speed presence if he starts, but he's cross-entered to Sunday's Laz Barrera Memorial S. (G3) and trainer Jesus Mendoza has indicated that he may opt out of this spot.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-MAYOR BOZARTH
2nd-YARIO (Ire)
3rd-LADDIES POKER
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
HIRSCH JACOBS S. (G3), 6TH-PIM, $100,000, 3YO, 6F, 1:24 P.M. EDT, 5-19
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 SOUTHWESTERN HEAT SALZMAN TIMOTHY CAMACHO ERIC 116
2 SPORTS TOWN TERRANOVA JOHN P II VELAZQUEZ J R 118
3 HEART THROBBIN' LEATHERBURY KING T FOGELSONGER R 120
4 FINALLYMADEIT NEGRETE JAVIER NUNEZ E O 118
5 STREET MAGICIAN TROMBETTA MICHAEL J BEJARANO R 122
6 HOBBITONTHEROCKS PRECIADO RAMON DOMINGUEZ R A 116
7 STORMIN BAGHDAD PITTS HELEN PRADO E S 118
8 LIKE MOM LIKE SONS ATTARD SID C GOMEZ G K 122
A field of seven sprinters will line up for the six-furlong $100,000 Hirsch Jacobs S. (G3) on Saturday at Pimlico. We'll tab STREET MAGICIAN (Street Cry [Ire]) to return to form for the win.
Before placing fifth in the Withers S. (G3), the Michael Trombetta charge was on a two-race winning streak. The Larry Johnson homebred broke his maiden by eight lengths in February, scoring a career-best 102 BRIS Speed figure for the effort. In his next start, Street Magician took the seven-furlong Aventura S. in game fashion. Stretching out to a mile in the Withers, the bay failed to fire. He'll cut back to a preferred distance (2-1-0-1), and Street Magician should be poised to capture his first graded stakes win with jockey Rafael Bejarano.
HOBBITONTHEROCKS (Lion Hearted) has had two near misses recently in the Maryland Stallion Station S. and the Bay Shore S. (G3) against solid horses. While six furlongs may not be his best distance, the Ramon Preciado-trained gelding showed 106 and 111 BRIS E2 Speed numbers for the Maryland Stallion Station and the Bay Shore, respectively, and could give our top pick trouble with his speed.
LIKE MOM LIKE SONS (Carson City) will attempt to overcome his outside post position. The front-running Sid Attard trainee is four-for-four overall and loves the distance, winning three starts at six furlongs by a combined 11 3/4 lengths over Woodbine's Polytrack. The chestnut has turned in two bullet five-furlong workouts in the past two weeks and seems razor-sharp for his first dirt start. He'll be tested for class, but it doesn't hurt that he picks up the services of hot jockey Garrett Gomez.
SOUTHWESTERN HEAT (Gone West) is going to receive a class check in his stakes debut, but the speedball will definitely be a pace factor. He could hold for a small share.
HEART THROBBIN' (Formal Gold) narrowly defeated Hobbitontherocks last time, but he's mostly been running against lesser company. We'll let him beat us. FINALLYMADEIT (Concerto) has faced similar competition and hasn't fared well. We'll pass. STORMIN BAGHDAD (Stormin Fever) seems to prefer Polytrack and doesn't look fast enough to contend here.
SPORTS TOWN (Belong to Me) will be scratched after successfully taking the Ogygian S. by four lengths this past Wednesday.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-STREET MAGICIAN
2nd-HOBBITONTHEROCKS
3rd-LIKE MOM LIKE SONS
Preakness <HR style="COLOR: #336699" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->http://www.drf.com/row/pps/07preakness.pdf
1 Mint Slewlep (KY) 30/1 Alan Garcia 126 3 C LA W. Robert Bailes
2 Xchanger (FL) 15/1 Ramon A. Dominguez 126 3 C LA Mark Shuman
3 Circular Quay (KY) 8/1 John R. Velazquez 126 3 C LA Todd A. Pletcher
4 Curlin (KY) 7/2 Robby Albarado 126 3 C L Steven M. Asmussen
5 King Of The Roxy (OH) 12/1 Garrett K. Gomez 126 3 C LA Todd A. Pletcher
6 Flying First Class (CA) 20/1 Mark Guidry 126 3 C L D. Wayne Lukas
7 Hard Spun (PA) 5/2 Mario G. Pino 126 3 C LA J. Larry Jones
8 Street Sense (KY) 7/5 Calvin H. Borel 126 3 C L Carl A. Nafzger
9 C P West (KY) 20/1 Edgar S. Prado 126 3 C LA Nicholas P. Zito
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Big Al
Curlin
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->__________________
Wizard's Major Stakes <HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Wizard's Major Stakes for Saturday, May 19th, 2007
Pimlico Race 12 - PREAKNESS STAKES
Pimlico Race 12 - PREAKNESS STAKES 1 3/16m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $1,000,000. Post Time: 6:09 ET
Race Synopsis
In plain and simple language, today’s Preakness Stakes boils down to two horses that are difficult to separate for the win, Hard Spun and Street Sense. There is the possibility that Curlin could upset the top two, but it will be a difficult task as I write in my analysis.
When I handicapped the Kentucky Derby just two weeks ago, no matter how hard I tried, I could not shy away from my belief that either Curlin or Street Sense had to win the run for the roses. Despite the reality that there were eighteen other horses in the race, if neither of these two horses came away with a victory, than I just didn’t have a clue who would win. I tabbed Curlin as my top selection, and made Street Sense my second choice. I didn’t have the winner on top that day, but a well-thought out wagering strategy resulted in a $440.00 trifecta payoff for a $40.00 suggested wager. (Note: my win bet on Curlin did not cash as well as my exacta box with my top two selections. But it was my $40.00 trifecta wager, which more than made up for the win and exacta loses).
Like the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness has its contenders and horses that are very unlikely to win. A few who were unable to make the run for the roses for one reason or another, are entering the starting gate Saturday as a hope to attain some measure of fame with a victory. Even though there some new shooters at Pimlico, I am hard pressed to believe that this year’s renewal of the Preakness will produce an upset. Hard Spun has the best chance to beat the race favorite who in all likelihood will be the Kentucky Derby hero, Street Sense. He certainly boasts a tactical advantage over that rival, and the more friendly speed favoring Pimlico track will afford him every opportunity to exact revenge in the Preakness. Street Sense will be running strong from well off the pace again, and he is certainly at his best when able to race along the inside. He has been a gem of consistency for his connections, and has never been worse than third in eight career starts. Today, with a change in venue, we will all have the opportunity to find out just how good Street Sense is away from Churchill Downs.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 MINT SLEWLEP 30/1
2 XCHANGER 15/1
3 CIRCULAR QUAY 8/1
4 CURLIN 7/2
5 KING OF THE ROXY 12/1
6 FLYING FIRST CLASS 20/1
7 HARD SPUN 5/2
8 STREET SENSE 7/5
9 C P WEST 20/1
First Selection: (7) HARD SPUN (Jones J Larry/Pino M G)
Hard Spun comes into the Preakness following an impressive second place finish in the Kentucky Derby. I had not predicted this kind of effort. Hard Spun certainly had all the credentials to run well off his form, having won five of six career starts. His lone defeat came in the Southwest stakes at Oaklawn. Trainer Larry Jones had indicated after the race that Hard Spun did not handle the surface well. At 1-2 odds, he did race wide from an outside post, but had no punch at all in the stretch. Hard Spun rebounded with an impressive win in the Grade 2 Lanes End at Turfway, followed by his strong effort in the Derby.
Despite running second to Street Sense, I felt his race was just as good as the winner, even though Hard Spun had been beaten. Breaking from post eighth, Hard Spun was put right on the lead by Mario Pino. There was not an abundance of early speed in the race, but Hard Spun got to the front effortlessly. He was rated beautifully by Pino while setting quick early fractions. When the field reached midway on the far turn, Hard Spun had easily put away the chasers. Approaching the top of the stretch, the only horse poised to make a run at him was the eventual winner. Street Sense had rallied from far off pace with never a straw in his path, riding the rail until tipping out to attack Hard Spun with a full head of steam. Street Sense cut into the pacesetter with every stride, as those two rivals drew well clear of the rest of the field. In mid stretch, there was little doubt that Street Sense was going to win the Derby, it was just a matter of how many lengths he would win by. Inside the eighth pole, Street Sense lugged in a bit, which he has shown a tendency to do, when he is not hugging the rail. The Racing Form comment was that Hard Spun had “bobbled”. This was a direct result of both horse and rider being intimidated, while racing close to the rail. Hard Spun had to steady, losing all his forward momentum. When this occurs, the horse that is going right by will quickly extend their margin of victory. This was not the case for Street Sense. Pino asked for Hard Spun to kick it back into gear and he got the response he wanted. The race was clearly over, but Hard Spun never stopped trying to the wire. Street Sense’s margin of victory was 2 ¼ lengths. If not for Pino having to steady at a crucial point in the race, he probably would still not have won, but the race would have been closer at the finish. I closely watched the gallop out past the wire, and there was no doubt in my mind, that Hard Spun was the fresher and stronger horse after the race was over.
Now the question is if Hard Spun can reverse the decision in the Preakness. The answer is yes. There are several reasons I feel this can happen. If you analyze his past performances, it is obvious that Hard Spun began to improve steadily once he was stretched out to two turns. In all four prior sprint starts, he had wired the field by nothing less than five lengths at the wire. He had shown he could handle intense pressure in the first half of the race, before disposing of his pace rivals and easily drawing clear. Once Hard Spun was asked to go two turns, he was able to ration out his speed better, which made him an even stronger horse in the final stages of the race. This was what actually occurred in the Derby, going 1 ¼ miles. In the Preakness, Hard Spun will cut back in distance, which can only help. He will also appreciate the tighter turns at Pimlico and the fact that historically, Pimlico favors early speed, and hinders closers. These factors can only help Hard Spun.
One of the questions that will be discussed by handicappers, especially those people who use speed figures to help base their opinions, is whether or not Hard Spun will regress off his lifetime figure that he earned in the Kentucky Derby. I don't use speed figures, even though I am aware of how valuable they can be. My handicapping philosophy is to focus on many other factors. These include the way a horse strides out, the trip he has, in relation to the pace of the race, and any track bias that might have helped or hindered that horses performance. Trainer intension and patterns are also very important to me.
I feel that trainer Larry Jones has managed Hard Spun to perfection. He has been humble in interviews and very truthful about how his horse was doing before the Derby and as he prepares for the Preakness. When Hard Spun worked a blistering 5 furlongs over the Churchill Downs strip five days before the Derby, many people felt that it was too fast a work on the heels of the biggest race of his career. I must admit that I was worried about how the workout would affect him, but the main reason I decided not to pick Hard Spun in my first four selections, was based more on questioning the competition he was beating, and the pace set up he would have to overcome in the Derby. Jones felt that the blazing drill had more to do with Hard Spun loving the Churchill Downs surface rather than rider Mario Pino losing control. He also indicated in the days leading up to the race, that he had come out of the work in excellent shape. The reason I feel Hard Spun will not regress in the Preakness is that Jones had freshened up Hard Spun after his romp in the Lanes End. He was the freshest horse coming into the Derby and ran like a horse who benefited by the time off. Because of the layoff, this will work to Hard Spun’s advantage in the Preakness.
Second Selection: (8) STREET SENSE (Nafzger Carl A/Borel C H)
Street Sense was saddled with lofty expectations as a three-year-old in 2007, primarily because of his sparkling win in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs in November. That said, Street Sense still had his detractors. Many of the so-called experts downgraded that victory, citing that his bias-aided win was a fluke, and it was not as impressive as it appeared upon closer inspection. In addition, the Eclipse award winner would make only two starts leading up to the Kentucky Derby. History had shown that three or more races, which almost everyone believed, were absolutely necessary in order to win the run for the roses. Many believed that the fact that he wore front bandages was detrimental, a signal that something was definitely amiss with him. Nevertheless, Street Sense had people in his corner, most notably his trainer, Carl Nafzger.
Street Sense made his belated three-year-old debut in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby on March 17 at Tampa Bay Downs. He picked up right were he left off in 2006, eking out a slim nose victory over an ultra game Any Given Saturday. Street Sense had cleared his first hurdle, but barely, as the connections of the two-year-old champion’s main focus was always geared towards the Kentucky Derby.
Carl Nafzger is quite proficient at having a horse at its peak for a specific race He didn’t think it was the end of the world when Street Sense went down to defeat by a nose in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 14. Racing extremely close to a pedestrian pace that day, Street Sense was one-paced over the Polytrack surface, losing valuable ground throughout, while racing well out in the track. When Street Sense was set down in the stretch by jockey Calvin Borel, he lacked his usual burst of late speed and appeared to labor over the Polytrack surface in the stretch. Also, he was carried out during the stretch run, and then proceeded to “lug in” a bit under pressure, as he attempted to improve his position. Street Sense continued willingly to the wire, losing a tight photo to Dominican, who excelled over Polytrack.
Little did we know then, but Street Sense’s narrow defeat at Keeneland, and his slim victory at Tampa off the layoff, would set him up perfectly for the Derby. After his Blue Grass defeat, Street Sense trained brilliantly, over what is arguably his favorite surface, the Churchill Downs main track. He also made a striking appearance in the morning, as he continued his quest for the Derby, and seemed poised to deliver what was likely to be a career best effort.
Street Sense would obviously benefit from a livelier pace scenario in the Kentucky Derby and from the change in venue. Also, it was a certainty that he would be nowhere near the early lead, which would only accentuate his closing kick. As Hard Spun dictated a sprightly pace on the front end, Street Sense took up residence at the back of the pack. With Calvin Borel simply biding his time, Street Sense began picking up runners one by one as he began to improve position down the backstretch. Never leaving the rail, Street Sense was within striking distance of the leaders racing around the far turn, as he constantly reduced his deficit with each and every stride. He was then angled off the inside and went after Hard Spun in earnest in the stretch and subsequently kicked into overdrive. The rest as they say is history. Street Sense sustained his rally, wrestling the lead away from a game Hard Spun, while drifting in a bit, as he gained command. He continued to edge clear in deep stretch, and was 2 1/4 lengths to the good at the finish.
Even with his victory in the Kentucky Derby, there were people who chose to emphasize Street Sense’s “dream run” down the backstretch, never leaving the inside part of the track, as he constantly made up ground. They also alluded to the fact, that both of his biggest accomplishments to date, have come at Churchill Downs. While both statements ring true, Street Sense did win “fair and square”. The James Tafel homebred runner did have to run down a loose-on-the-lead Hard Spun in the stretch, who grudgingly gave up the lead in the final 1/8th of a mile. Undeniably, Street Sense was “lucky” in the Derby, but he was also “good”. He delivered a prolonged rally to get within shouting distance of the pacesetters, and then had the wherewithal to finish the job, which is admirable and quite noteworthy in my opinion.
Each race is unique in its own way. And, the Preakness is no exception. If Street Sense is to win back-to-back jewels of the Triple Crown, he will in all likelihood have to display some versatility to get the job done. What has worked to perfection for him in the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, might not serve him as well in Baltimore. Pimlico is obviously more speed favoring than Churchill Downs. Street Sense’s come from the clouds style of running could be a bit of a disadvantage over this track. Street Sense may have to lay closer to the lead in the Preakness. He might not have the benefit of a ground-saving trip like the one he enjoyed in the Derby. Street Sense has yet to be defeated over a conventional dirt surface around two turns. He does not have to carry his racetrack around with him like some critics think, but, how the race unfolds in the Preakness, and the kind of trip Street Sense enjoys, could mean the difference between victory and defeat. Bottom line, Street Sense boasts the talent, determination and the capacity to win right back. He does need clear sailing to be at his best, and that could be problematic over a track like Pimilco. While he is apt to emerge with a victory today as the expected favorite, it is definitely not a certainty.
Third Selection: (4) CURLIN (Asmussen Steven M/Albarado R J)
Those who purchased my Kentucky Derby stakes package read in my race synopsis that I had a very difficult time deciding whether to pick Curlin or Street Sense to win. I felt that one of these two would be victorious. I also thought that both could run first, second, or third, with one of the top two winning. Therefore I felt that trifectas were the smartest wager to make, using who I felt, were the major contenders to round out the tri. I ended up selecting Curlin first and Street Sense second. My wagering strategy was correct. The payoff for the trifecta was $440.00. Sometimes you can be wrong and still show a nice profit on the wager which I did, even though I ended up picking Curling to win. The connections of Curlin have decided to try their luck again by entering him back in the Preakness.
I had strong reasons why I felt Curlin could win the Derby, despite many people feeling that he was too lightly race, had never faced this kind of competition and that history was against him. Their reasons ended up being correct as he was not victorious, but they were wrong to underestimate his ability and how well he fit with the Derby field. Even though Curlin was a no threat third, he did have major excuses. With a perfect trip, he was not going to beat Street Sense or Hard Spun. He would have certainly been closer to those two at the wire with an easier journey. I felt post two, which Curlin broke from, could be an advantage if he showed enough speed to get a contending position into the first turn and not be shuffled back, further off the pace, than he wanted to be. I also knew that there was a good chance that this might not happen. It ended up that Curlin’s fate was sealed soon after the start, when he was in tight and was forced to drop back well off the early leaders. He had to navigate through traffic and nineteen other rivals. Curlin was always out of striking position. When the field entered the stretch, he had to swing out very wide and rally from well back. In the final eighth of a mile, Curlin found a clear path and rallied late for third. Another stride he would have been fourth, as a longshot was finishing best of all.
What should we expect from Curlin in the Preakness? Being objective, which is sometimes difficult to do, I feel that there are reasons he is up against it. On Saturday Curlin will be running his fifth race in a little more than 3 ½ months, and that does not include all his workouts leading up to his debut and into the Derby. That averages out to about one race every three weeks. During this span, he will have run 7 furlongs, 1 1/16 miles, 1 1/8 miles and 1 ¼ miles. In the Preakness, Curlin will cut back to 1 3/16 miles. That’s a lot of traveling in such a short period of time.
Following the Derby, I felt that it was time for Curlin’s connections to give him some time off to recover from his very tough schedule and allow him to develop. The Haskell at Monmouth in the summer and/or the Travers at Saratoga could be two possibilities. If Curlin wins the Preakness off this brutal schedule, it would be amazing. There is no doubt that he is a quality thoroughbred, but running in the Preakness could hurt him down the road. We have seen many horses that run in the Derby or in both the Derby and Preakness, never recovering to be what they could have developed into.
Fourth Selection: (3) CIRCULAR QUAY (Pletcher Todd A/Velazquez J R)
Circular Quay entered the Kentucky Derby off a decisive victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, winning by more than two lengths. This was his initial success around two turns. The Michael and Doreen Tabor homebred runner uncorked a devastating late burst of speed to annex the Fair Grounds’ marquee race, and appeared primed for another top effort returning to Churchill Downs.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, Circular Quay was a graded stakes winner over the quirky Churchill Downs main track, and it appeared as though he would benefit from a solid pace, that seemed imminent, as well as the added distance. At least that’s the way it looked on paper. Unfortunately, it did not play out that way. Circular Quay never really got untracked in the Kentucky Derby, finishing a disappointing sixth, beaten nine lengths. The son of Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch passed tired horses, while improving his position, but his closing kick was conspicuous by its absence. He was unable sustain his rally into stretch, giving ground as Street Sense and Hard Spun distanced themselves from the field in the stretch run.
Without much of an excuse, Circular Quay’s performance in the Kentucky Derby left much to be desired. Maybe it was the fact that he had not raced in eight weeks, and was just a tad rusty. Whatever the reason was for his atypical showing, he most assuredly can improve upon his Louisville effort. However, it is still difficult to imagine than he can do any better than compete for a minor award. While the jury is still out as to whether Circular Quay is a late-running sprinter, or a legitimate route runner, how he performs in the Preakness today, should make it clearer as to what side of the aisle Circular Quay belongs.
Fifth Selection: (5) KING OF THE ROXY (Pletcher Todd A/Gomez G K)
It’s hard to imagine that King of the Roxy was ever really on the Derby trail, as the Todd-Pletcher trained runner had yet to run well over a route of ground, never mind win at a distance. So it really came as no surprise to anyone when that he made his three-year-old debut in the Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes on March 3 at Gulfstream Park at 7 1/2 furlongs. Despite a slow start and a wide trip that day, King of the Roxy overcame both of those obstacles to score off the layoff. King Of The Roxy emerged victorious by a 2 1/4 decisive lengths in very good time for his connections.
With Scat Daddy slated to compete in the Grade 1 Florida Derby later in the month over the Gulfstream Park track, Pletcher elected to head west with King of the Roxy, selecting the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 7 for his next start. Purchased for a measly $8,000 as a yearling, this would be King of the Roxy’s initial start at Santa Anita Park, and only his second race around two turns. He had failed miserably in his two-turn debut in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2006 at Churchill Downs. How well he performed at Santa Anita, going nine furlongs, would go a long way in determining how far he was able to carry his speed.
In the Santa Anita Derby, King of the Roxy drew an outside post. He tracked the early pacesetters while racing a bit wide and losing valuable ground down the backstretch. Leaving the far turn, Jockey Richard Migliore asked him for a bit more run. King of the Roxy responded willingly to eventually gain a tenuous advantage at the midstretch point. However, King of the Roxy had to work hard to gain command. That, coupled with the fact that this was just his second start of the year, as he stretched out to 1 1/8 miles, had begun to take a toll on him. He was powerless to withstand the late rally of Tiago in the final yards, but had acquitted himself quite well in defeat, finishing a strong second. Pletcher, who would subsequently start five horses in the Kentucky Derby, bypassed the run for the roses with King of the Roxy, and settled on the Preakness instead. While it was obviously a prudent decision, it is still debatable as to whether he can compete at this level of competition, particularly over 1 3/16 miles. That said, King of the Roxy has continued to train well in the interim, and should be within striking distance of the pacesetters from the outset. He has never won around two turns, and the probability that he can handle the likes of Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin today is unlikely. An on-the-board finish is possible, and I will use him underneath in trifectas only. King Of The Roxy would have to improve by leaps and bounds since his Santa Anita Derby effort in March to be afforded any chance of coming away with a win.
The Remainder of the Field (In order of preference)
(9) C P WEST (Zito Nicholas P/Prado E S)
Last summer at Saratoga, trainer Nick Zito uncharacteristically sent out several well bred horses to break their maiden first asking. Zito had shown in the past that he wins a much higher percentage of races with two years olds in their second or third career starts. C P West was one of the better looking debut winners for Zito at the Spa. Zito was high on this colt right from the start. It was not unexpected that he wheeled C P West back in the Grade 2 futurity at Belmont Park. Facing the more experienced King Of The Roxy, C P West ran an excellent second, beaten less than a length by that rival. Off that fine effort, Zito decided that the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile would be C P West’s next stop.
He would have plenty of support in the Breeders Cup, going off at 10-1, despite stretching out to two turns for the first time off only a maiden win and over the quirky Churchill Downs strip. C P West finished a well beaten sixth, beaten twenty two lengths. On first glance it appears that his performance was dismal, but on closer inspection, his effort was not as bad as it looks. Early in the race, he was forced to take up, losing all momentum. C P West made a nice middle move, but flattened out badly in the stretch. I was willing to throw the race out and give him another chance. His opportunity wouldn’t come until nearly five months later, when he made his three year old debut in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. C P West was beaten a nose at the seven furlong distance. It was a fine return which would set him up nicely for his next start in the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct. C P West rallied to be a no threat second as the 9-5 favorite.
Trainer Nick Zito must always be respected in Triple Crown races. He did not have any bullets to fire in the Derby. He has one left with C P West, but he would have to improve noticeably to be a factor in the Preakness. He lone win was at six furlongs. C P West has clearly shown at this point in his career that the 1 3/16 mile distance against more proven competition will be his undoing.
(6) FLYING FIRST CLASS (Lukas D Wayne/Guidry M)
Trainer Wayne Lukas opted to keep Flying First Class out of the Kentucky Derby, following an easy win in the Derby Trial at Churchill Downs run a week earlier. Flying First Class made his debut going two turns at Turfway Park last September. Despite being sent off at 20-1, he showed good speed and ran on well to be a clear second. Lukas decided to give him 4 ½ months off to have him ready to launch his three year old campaign with an eye towards the Kentucky Derby. Lukas cut him back to six furlongs at Oaklawn Park and the result was a scintillating eight length win in blazing time. If Flying First Class could replicate that performance stretching out to two turns, Lukas could begin thinking seriously about pointing him to the Derby. Off his maiden win, Flying First Class got his opportunity one month later, stepping up from his maiden win, to the Grade 3 Rebel, also at Oaklawn. He was sent off the 7-5 favorite against Curlin who was shipping in from Gulfstream Park off a similar “eye opening” win in his debut.
Breaking from an inside post, Flying First class was unable to get the lead and was forced to chase in second. New rider Edgar Prado asked him for run on the far turn and he was able to move alongside the pacesetter. His threat for the lead was short lived. Flying First Class started fading steadily through the stretch, finishing eighth, beaten thirteen lengths. He had failed miserably in his first attempt at a route. Lukas decided to give Flying First Class a chance to redeem himself one month later in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby. As soon as the gate opened, he was bothered by a horse that came in on him. For the first time, Flying First Class would have to rally from off the pace to make an impact. Similar to the Rebel, he made a nice middle move to get into contending position, but flattened out badly to finish a well beaten sixth.
Of his poor showings in the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby, it was impossible to imagine that Lukas had a Derby prospect. You could not blame these two dismal performances on the race track because Flying First Class broke his maiden over the course. Lukas shipped him to Churchill Downs with the idea of wheeling him back in the Derby Trial fourteen days later. That is exactly what he did and the result was a return to winning form, with an authoritative score at 6-1. The key to his victory was the cut back to a one turn route. Obviously a start in the Kentucky Derby, one week later, stretching out to 1 ¼ miles, would end up being detrimental for this colt. Lukas decided that the Preakness was the race to point for.
The best chance for Flying First Class to make an impact on Saturday is to get the lead early. He has shown that if forced to chase, he loses all interest when the real racing begins. Even if he does clear to the lead early, he will face intense pressure when several other horses with tactical speed begin to make their move midway on the far turn. Both his victories have been around one turn. It is unlikely that he can carry his speed the entire 1 3/16 mile distance against better horses.
(2) XCHANGER (Shuman Mark/Dominguez R A)
Xchanger earned a spot in the Preakness field with a blow out victory in the Federico Tesio over the Pimlico strip at the 1 1/8 mile distance. Any time a horse has a strong race over the track, it can only benefit him. In this case, no one else in the field has ever raced at Pimlico. Even with this important edge, is it enough for Xchanger to be a factor in the Preakness?
Xchanger broke his maiden first time out in fast time at Monmouth Park last summer. He was boosted in class right into the Grade 3 Sapling, also run over that track. It is always difficult to win a stake off only a maiden win, but Xchanger did just that, despite being bumped hard at the 1/8th pole. Six weeks later his connections decided to jump into the deep waters, shipping into Belmont Park for the prestigious Grade 1 Champagne. Xchanger was completely ignored at the windows. Sent off at 37-1, it was obvious that he stood little chance to be a factor. He had never faced anywhere near this competition. Xchanger’s two wins came at 6 furlongs. In the Champagne he was asked to travel a flat mile. He showed no speed and was far back throughout. Twenty days later Xchanger came back in the Grade 3 Nashua at Aqueduct and was a no threat third. He finished his two year old campaign in a Grade 3 stake at Delta Downs where he ran an even third once again.
Off his two year old form, there was little chance that he could be considered a possible Kentucky Derby entrant. Xchanger made his two year old debut in the Southwest Stakes. Breaking from the rail going a mile, he had some trouble, but once again was no threat from the eighth pole to the wire. He would really get tested in the Grade 3 Rebel at Oaklawn Park. Xchanger showed new tactics that afternoon. He established a clear early lead but faltered badly. The winner Curlin blew by him on the turn as if he was standing still. Off his two year and three year old form up to this point, his connections would have been better served to find a much weaker spot to get his confidence back. This would not be the case as Xchanger was wheeled back in the Federico Tesio. He showed a fondness for the Pimlico surface with a decisive front running win in quick time while being geared down in the late stages.
It is clear that Xchanger likes the front end. He also has that important strong race over the track. In the Preakness, Xchanger will once again be put on the engine from the start. Unlike the Tesio where he opened up an eight length lead into the stretch, there is no way I can envision him not to be pressured hard on the far turn. When this happens, and he is passed, Xchanger will fade badly. He will not be included in any of my suggested wagers.
(1) MINT SLEWLEP (Bailes W Robert/Garcia A)
Mint Slewlep’s claim to fame is a maiden win in slow time against a weak field and a front running victory in an entry allowance race. Both races were run at a flat mile at Laurel. In both Grade 3 stakes he has run in, Mint Slewlep raced evenly, without threatening at any point in the race. He has by far the lowest earnings of any horse in the Preakness field. Even though trainer Robert Bailes is a competent trainer, this is a ridiculous spot. He will be up the track, and is not going to be used on any of my suggested wagers.
Wagering Strategy
As I have written in great detail, Hard Spun and Street Sense are the two horses I am keying in trifectas and one superfecta. I am also suggesting a win bet on my top selection, Hard Spun. On one trifecta ticket I will include Curlin, who I feel is the only threat to upset the two favorites. I do not want to get involved in exactas, as I rather put my money on tri's, where I can spread a little, and possibly get a better score, especially if one of the outsiders sneak into the ticket. Each trifecta and the superfecta are listed in $1.00 increments. Obviously you can wager more if you want to, but remember to never wager more than what you are comfortable with.
Win bet on # 7 HARD SPUN.
*** TRIFECTAS ***
$1.00 TRIFECTA: 7-8 / 3-4-5-7-8 / 3-4-5-7-8 = $24.00
$1.00 TRIFECTA: 4-7-8 / 4-7-8 / 3-4-5-7-8 = $18.00
$1.00 TRIFECTA: 7-8 / 3-4-7-8 / 3-4-5-7-8 = $18.00
$1.00 TRIFECTA: 7-8 / 4-7-8 / 3-4-5-7-8 = $12.00
$2.00 TRIFECTA BOX: 4-7-8 = $12.00
Total Trifecta Wager = $84.00
*** SUPERFECTA ***
$1.00 SUPERFECTA: 7-8 / 4-7-8 / 3-4-5-7-8 / 3-4-5-7-8 = $24.00
Golden Contender
Gc- Preakness Plays, Im Not Gonna Write A Novel For Everyone To Scroll Through, Im Taking Street Sense , But Im Not Playing Win- Im Using Him Over Circular Quay, Curlin, And King Of The Roxy, In Exactas, Triples,and A Superfecta Part Wheel, After Looking At The Numbers, The Probble Horse Who Will Lead And Stalk,and Close This Si What I Came Up With, I Like Horses That Have Run In The Derby, As They Seem To Win The Preakness More Often Than Not, Second And Third Is More Of A Crap Shoot, I Think Hard Spun May Get Cooked By The 2 Horse Xchanger, And I Think Stone Cold Closer King Of The Roxy Could Pick Up The Pieces Late, Bol Gc-
Saturday Horse Racing Spot Pixx
<HR style="COLOR: #d1dae1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
DIXIE S. (G2), 10TH-PIM, $250,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/8MT, 4:22 P.M. EDT, 5-19
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 CAN'T BEAT IT WOLFSON MARTIN D BEJARANO R 124
2 GENERAL JUMBO (GB) MOTION H GRAHAM VELAZQUEZ J R 118
3 COSMONAUT BIANCONE PATRICK L PRADO E S 124
4 DREADNAUGHT VOSS THOMAS H SAMYN J L 118
5 SILVER TREE MOTT WILLIAM I NO RIDER 122
6 WOODLANDER CONTESSA GARY C GARCIA A 120
7 STAY CLOSE (GB) ZWIESLER MICHAEL NO RIDER 118
8 WOOD BE WILLING MATZ MICHAEL R FOGELSONGER R 118
9 EINSTEIN (BRZ) PITTS HELEN ALBARADO R J 124
10 OUTPERFORMANCE VIOLETTE RICHARD JR GOMEZ G K 120
11 MENDING FENCES WOLFSON MARTIN D CASTRO E 124
12 REMARKABLE NEWS (VEN) PENNA ANGEL JR DOMINGUEZ R A 122
Saturday's $250,000 Dixie S. (G2) on Preakness Day at Pimlico promises to be a highly competitive turf affair, with several of the 12 entrants capable of taking top honors in the 1 1/8-mile test. Adding to the uncertainty is the state of the ground, which could have some give to it if the forecast rain materializes. The horse best able to handle the widest range of variables is COSMONAUT (Lemon Drop Kid), so we'll peg the Patrick Biancone charge at a generous 9-2 on the morning line.
Cosmonaut's lone graded stakes victory on the grass came in last year's Arlington H. (G3) on soft ground, but the rangy gray has turned in commendable efforts on firm turf as well, consistently posting triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings. He finished a sneakily good fifth in the Arlington Million S. (G1) after being wiped out at the start, and he was a close fourth in both the Shadwell Turf Mile S. (G1) and Citation H. (G1). Cosmonaut kicked off his 2007 campaign with an effortless allowance score at Keeneland, and that outing should set him up well for a top performance here. A versatile type who tends to be forwardly placed, he projects a ground-saving trip beneath a returning Edgar Prado.
DREADNAUGHT (Lac Ouimet) turned in a career-best effort in the 2006 Dixie, just going down by a head to the classy Better Talk Now (Talkin Man). The veteran gelding has finished a sharp second in both of his starts this season, including a near-miss in the Ft. Lauderdale S. in his 2007 bow. The nine-furlong trip suits him well (6-1-2-2), and he can deliver a potent late kick regardless of the pace scenario. It would be no surprise if the Tom Voss trainee outruns his 10-1 odds with Jean-Luc Samyn.
EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck) is a bit of a question mark, as he wheels back on two weeks' rest after a dull seventh in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S. (G1). The 3-1 morning-line favorite turned in sterling performances earlier this season, however. After his excellent third when trying to defend his title in the Gulfstream Park Breeders' Cup Turf S. (G1), Einstein overcame a circus-like trip to take the Mervin H. Muniz Jr. Memorial H. (G2) at Fair Grounds. Trainer Helen Pitts said that Einstein was dealing with throat issues that compromised him last time out. We won't leave him out of our top three, but until he shows us that he's back to his best, we'd prefer to use him underneath. Robby Albarado will be back aboard.
MENDING FENCES (Forestry), a 10-1 outsider with an upset chance, has improved markedly since switching to the Marty Wolfson barn. The confirmed front runner could wind up on an uncontested lead, just as he did when capturing the John B. Connally Breeders' Cup Turf H. (G3) on yielding ground in his latest. This is a sizeable step up in class, but he did finish second to English Channel (Smart Strike) in an allowance two back. His early speed makes him dangerous, and Mending Fences could last a long way beneath Eddie Castro. Grade 3 winner OUTPERFORMANCE (Aptitude) had the misfortune of chasing Showing Up (Strategic Mission) a couple of times last year. He returned with a rallying fourth in a Keeneland allowance, and his pedigree strongly suggests that he'll improve as a four-year-old. Although Outperformance would have to step up dramatically to get involved here, it's noteworthy that Garrett Gomez picks up the mount.
SILVER TREE (Hennessy), in contrast, has plenty of back class, and if he runs up to his best, would crack the top three. He doesn't handle soft ground, though, as illustrated by his subpar fifth to Mending Fences in the Connally, and he was unplaced in his only prior try over the course in the 2004 Dixie. If he's not inconvenienced by the ground, Silver Tree could well beat us. REMARKABLE NEWS (Ven) (Chayim) holds the key to the pace, but conditioner Angel Penna Jr. has indicated that he may scratch after drawing post 12. As if the post isn't bad enough, Remarkable News won't get the luxury of dictating on the front end. If he runs, the speedy chestnut would ensure an honest tempo with Mending Fences, and the pair would likely soften each other up.
CAN'T BEAT IT (Atticus), Wolfson's other runner, has looked smart on occasion, but he has an inconsistent streak that makes him frustrating to follow. WOODLANDER (Forestry) is coming off a solid win in the Fort Marcy H. (G3) in his first start for Gary Contessa. This is a far tougher group, however, so we'll watch him on the class rise. GENERAL JUMBO (GB) (Dansili [GB]) wants a much longer trip, and as much as we respect Graham Motion, we can't see him springing a surprise in his seasonal reappearance. STAY CLOSE (Belong to Me) captured the Henry Clark S. over the course last time out, but he faces a much stiffer assignment in this spot. WOOD BE WILLING (Pulpit) has been beaten in his last six turf starts, five of them versus allowance/optional claiming company.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-COSMONAUT
2nd-DREADNAUGHT
3rd-EINSTEIN (Brz)
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
MARYLAND BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT H. (G3), 8TH-PIM, $200,000, 3YO/UP, 6F, 2:49 P.M. EDT, 5-19
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 SEMAPHORE MAN VON HEMEL KELLY ALBARADO R J 116
2 DIABOLICAL KLESARIS STEVE PINO M G 120
3 CELTIC INNIS KEEFE TIMOTHY L VELAZQUEZ J R 114
4 SIR CLASSIC CHRIS LEATHERBURY KING T NO RIDER 112
5 FIRST WORD FRANKEL ROBERT J BEJARANO R 114
6 FLEET VALID TROMBETTA MICHAEL J PRADO E S 114
7 TALENT SEARCH SHUMAN MARK FOGELSONGER R 115
8 EURO CODE LAKE SCOTT A DOMINGUEZ R A 114
A field of eight has been entered to go six furlongs in Saturday's $200,000 Maryland Breeders' Cup Sprint H. (G3) at Pimlico, and it appears to be a three-horse race. SEMAPHORE MAN (Formal Gold), DIABOLICAL (Artax) and TALENT SEARCH (Catienus) all have a valid chance at showing up in the winner's circle, and we're going with the latter to come out on top while making his graded debut.
Talent Search began his career in the maiden claiming ranks, but a 6 1/2-length victory in his debut was more than enough for his connections to move him into allowance company next out. After another easy win, the chestnut was transferred to trainer Mark Shuman, who started him in his first stakes last November. After a second in the Sophomore Sprint Championship S., Talent Search spent his next four races battling allowance/optional claiming company, posting exceptional BRIS Speed ratings of 102 and 107 in the process. The four-year-old was moved back to stakes company last out and rewarded that decision with a dominating six-length, front-running victory in the Jim McKay Sprint S. at Pimlico while garnering a 111 Speed figure. Four of his five lifetime victories have come at Saturday's six-furlong distance, and Talent Search could make it three in a row here under regular rider Ryan Fogelsonger.
Semaphore Man earned his first stakes score when taking the King Cotton S. in his five-year-old debut in February. Since then, the Kelly Von Hemel-trained gelding has just missed when second in the Hot Springs S. and Count Fleet Sprint H. (G3), with all three starts this year coming at Oaklawn Park. The dark bay garnered a 105 Speed as well as 101 BRIS Late and E2 Pace ratings for his half-length runner-up finish in the Count Fleet last out, but we're a little wary on backing in his first try at Pimlico. Semaphore Man has plenty of experience racing over different tracks in the past, but all five of his career wins have come at Oaklawn. Nevertheless, he'll be tough in this spot and could easily fill out the exacta with Robby Albarado getting the call.
Diabolical's last win came in the Gallant Bob H. last fall at Philadelphia Park, and the Steve Klesaris charge was then pitted against some of the best in the sprint division for his last three. He finished just three parts of a length back of Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) hero and champion sprinter Thor's Echo (Swiss Yodeler) in the Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash S. (G1) in November, returned in March to run a length back in third of Half Ours (Unbridled's Song) in the Richter Scale Breeders' Cup Sprint Championship H. (G2) and was a 1 1/4-length runner-up in the Carter H. (G1) behind Silver Wagon (Wagon Limit) last out in early April. Diabolical consistently posts triple-digit E2 Pace figures and earned a field-best 112 Speed rating for his Gallant Bob victory. Our only knock against him is that all but two of his career wins have come at a mile or more. The chestnut four-year-old may prefer a bit more ground than the three-quarters he'll be running Saturday, but is a definite threat to complete the exotics with Mario Pino holding the reins.
FLEET VALID (Montbrook) is lightly raced, making just six starts since beginning his career in 2005. However, the four-year-old colt captured four of those races and placed in the other two. Trained by Michael Trombetta, the chestnut is used to having the lead, but we can't see him getting the jump on our top pick. Fleet Valid is still a contender for a top-three finish in his stakes bow with Edgar Prado aboard. CELTIC INNIS (Yarrow Brae) is a six-furlong specialist, finishing in the top three in 14 of his 19 starts at the distance. The dark bay was third to our top pick in the Jim McKay last out and could grab a share under jockey John Velazquez.
EURO CODE (Forestry), well back in second in the Jim McKay most recently, doesn't look fast enough to challenge against these. FIRST WORD (Chester House) hasn't been competitive against stakes company in the past and we don't see him reversing that form here. SIR CLASSIC CHRIS (Catienus) appears to be way out of his class in this spot.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-TALENT SEARCH
2nd-SEMAPHORE MAN
3rd-DIABOLICAL
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
SHUVEE H. (G2), 8TH-BEL, $150,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1M, 4:48 P.M. EDT, 5-19
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 SWAP FLIPAROO JERKENS H ALLEN ROJAS R I 116
2 RAHYS' APPEAL BUSH THOMAS M ARROYO N JR 116
3 SUGAR SHAKE FRANKEL ROBERT J COA E M 118
4 LAST ROMANCE DUTROW RICHARD E CASTELLANO J J 114
5 TEAMMATE JERKENS H ALLEN VELASQUEZ CORNE 116
6 SILMARIL GROVE CHRISTOPHER W DESORMEAUX K J 115
Both SUGAR SHAKE (Awesome Again) and SWAP FLIPAROO (Exchange Rate) were withdrawn by their respective connections from Friday's Allaire DuPont Breeders' Cup Distaff S. (G2) at Pimlico in favor of Saturday's $150,000 Shuvee H. (G2) at Belmont Park. Considering that the former filly earned her first two career victories at Big Sandy, we're going to tab her on top while going against five rivals in the mile test.
Sugar Shake broke her maiden by 3 1/4 lengths in front-running fashion at Belmont last May, then returned to that same track in June to take an allowance/optional claiming event by 6 1/2 lengths. Both of those starts came at a mile, and the Bobby Frankel-trained four-year-old was then thrown to the wolves when taking on the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) going 10 furlongs next out. Finishing a well-beaten seventh that day, Sugar Shake was given a slight break but showed she needed more time to recover from that beating when finishing second by 5 3/4 lengths against allowance rivals at her preferred eight-furlong distance. The bay miss wasn't seen again until November, taking an allowance at Churchill Downs, and returned to graded competition two back in the El Encino S. (G2). Taking the lead from the start, Sugar Shake showed her heart when headed in the stretch, fighting back to take the victory by a length. She was easily the best in the Santa Maria H. (G1) last out, earning a career-best 102 BRIS Speed rating, and looks poised to added a fourth straight win to her record here. Eibar Coa will be aboard for the first time.
Swap Fliparoo is a runner-up specialist at Belmont, owning five seconds from nine starts on the Elmont, New York, track. The gray miss has spent much of her career in the sprinting ranks, but did earn an easy 6 1/4-length victory in the Sabin H. (G3) going a mile three back at Gulfstream Park. Since then, the Allen Jerkens charge has been third in the Rampart H. (G2) and Bed o' Roses Breeders' Cup H. (G2), and could show more here, especially after posting a bullet three furlongs in :34 3/5 on Belmont's training track Thursday. Swap Fliparoo could challenge for it all under Raul Rojas.
RAHYS' APPEAL (Rahy) is another who could move forward while returning to the eight-furlong distance. The Tom Bush-conditioned five-year-old tried the Apple Blossom H. (G1) last out, finishing a nice fifth after being steadied and blocked. Prior to that, she ran third to our top pick in the Santa Maria, and owns a win from last season's Top Flight H. (G2) at Aqueduct going a mile. Her only other start at a mile on the dirt came when she broke her maiden, and the bay mare posted an easy 8 1/2-length victory in the 2005 Ticonderoga H. in her only start on Belmont's dirt. Rahys' Appeal is an accomplished runner on both turf and dirt, and has the ability to threaten our top two picks for the victory.
Grade 3 winner SILMARIL (Diamond) has finished off the board only once from her last 10 starts, most recently running second in the Northview Stallion Station S. at Pimlico. It's somewhat puzzling why the the Christopher Grove-trained six-year-old is competing at Belmont on Saturday considering all of her stakes wins have come either at Pimlico or Laurel, but the dark bay mare has been going well enough of late to make a run in the exotics here. Silmaril posted a nice 103 Speed rating when second by only three parts of a length in the Barbara Fritchie Breeders' Cup H. (G2) in February and should be considered for the top three.
TEAMMATE (A.P. Indy) is a game runner who captured her 2007 bow last out off a six-month break. The four-year-old miss always gives her all, but might need another race and seems to prefer a bit more distance. We'll let her beat us. LAST ROMANCE (Wild Rush) hasn't been able to handle this level of competition in the past and we don't see her doing so here.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-SUGAR SHAKE
2nd-SWAP FLIPAROO
3rd-RAHYS' APPEAL
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
WILLIAM DONALD SCHAEFER H. (G3), 11TH-PIM, $100,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/8M, 5:10 P.M. EDT, 5-19
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 RYAN'S FOR REAL ALECCI JOHN V DOMINGUEZ R A 114
2 TWO SIXTY FOUR KEEFE TIMOTHY L FOGELSONGER R 112
3 TAKE THE BLUFF VIOLETTE RICHARD JR GOMEZ G K 112
4 URBAN CONQUEST BAZEOS PETER KARAMANOS H A 111
5 SMELLING SALTS DENNIS LAURA NO RIDER 109
6 BELONGS TO JOE GORHAM MICHAEL E ROCCO J 112
7 HESANOLDSALT ZITO NICHOLAS P PRADO E S 117
8 SUNRIVER PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 117
9 FLASHY BULL MCLAUGHLIN KIARAN P GARCIA A 114
The nine-furlong William Donald Schaefer H. (G3) will be decided immediately before the 132nd running the Preakness S. (G1), and HESANOLDSALT (Broad Brush), a full brother to Grade 1 winner Mongoose, easily rates our top choice.
In his most recent start, Hesanoldsalt raced forwardly in a pocket along the rail, advanced along the inside around the second turn, then finished gamely for runner-up honors to Corinthian (Pulpit) in the 1 3/16-mile Gulfstream Park H. (G2). Before that, the dark bay colt was well back in the early running, rallied four wide around the second turn, then closed determinedly, finishing second to Horse of the Year Invasor (Arg) (Candy Stripes) in the nine-furlong Donn H. (G1). Interestingly, Hesanoldsalt galloped out alongside Invasor in the Donn.
Hesanoldsalt has won his last two starts on an off track, including a 3 1/4-length triumph in the nine-furlong Fred W. Hooper H. (G3) on a sealed, sloppy track at Calder, and a victory going nine furlongs at Saratoga. He earned a 108 BRIS Speed rating in the Hooper, and a career-best 109 Speed figure on a good track in the second-level allowance race at the Spa. Trainer Nick Zito is known for running his horses in jar caulks, and with the strong possibility of rain in the forecast, that would only help Hesanoldsalt, who gets a rider change to Edgar Prado.
SUNRIVER (Saint Ballado), a full brother to champion Ashado, defeated Lewis Michael (Rahy) by a neck in last year's Peter Pan S. (G2) before finishing a good third in the Belmont S. (G1). The Todd Pletcher-trained colt finished a better-than-appears third, chasing undefeated Pegasus S. (G3) winner Diamond Stripes (Notebook), in his return to action at Aqueduct and figures to move forward in a big way in this spot. Our only concern is that in two previous starts on a sloppy, sealed track, Sunriver finished a distant sixth in the Jim Dandy S. (G2) and seventh in the Holy Bull S. (G3). He is, however, bred to relish the off going and rates our sleeper.
RYAN'S FOR REAL (Sword Dance [Ire]) has improved dramatically since being claimed for $25,000 by owner-trainer John Alecci last September. The bay gelding set the early pace before holding on well for third, beaten 2 3/4 lengths, in the seven-furlong General George Breeders' H. (G2), then rolled to a daylight victory in a high-level overnight event on a sloppy, sealed track at Laurel Park. In his most recent outing, Ryan's for Real raced around at the back of a tightly bunched field in the highly competitive Commonwealth Breeders' Cup S. (G2) at Keeneland, which was his first start on Polytrack. He won his only start, albeit against lesser, at this distance and could add value to the vertical exotics.
Grade 2-placed FLASHY BULL (Holy Bull) comes off back-to-back victories against first- and second-level allowance sorts around one turn. The gray colt, who is winless in six starts at this distance, must overcome the outside post and has the look of an underlay as the 7-2 second choice on the morning line.
TAKE THE BLUFF (Pine Bluff) comes off back-to-back route victories and defeated Belmont S. (G1) winner Jazil (Seeking the Gold) in his seasonal debut. The Richard Violette Jr. trainee has not raced for more than three months, but gets a key rider change to Garrett Gomez. BELONGS TO JOE (Belong to Me) is a solid third-level allowance runner who exits a sharp two-turn score at Delaware Park. The speedy TWO SIXTY FOUR (Dance Brightly) finished a non-threatening third to Ryan's for Real two back and figures to be forwardly placed. He owns an 8-4-2-1 record on this surface. All three of these are worth a second look for the bottom of the vertical exotics.
The speedy SMELLING SALTS (Two Punch) comes off three straight victories against lesser but would be a surprise at this level. URBAN CONQUEST (Victory Gallop) has run for a claiming tag on many occasions and appears overmatched.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-HESANOLDSALT
2nd-SUNRIVER
3rd-RYAN'S FOR REAL
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
GALLORETTE H. (G3), 7TH-PIM, $100,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1 1/16MT, 2:06 P.M. EDT, 5-19
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 A TRUE PUSSYCAT BUSH THOMAS M GARCIA A 116
2 COZY GAIN SMALL RICHARD W GARCIA LUIS 113
3 AUNT HENNY MATZ MICHAEL R PRADO E S 116
4 GRIGORIEVA (IRE) MOTION H GRAHAM DOMINGUEZ R A 114
5 PRECIOUS KITTEN FRANKEL ROBERT J BEJARANO R 122
6 TRICK'S PIC BIANCONE PATRICK L GOMEZ G K 114
7 HIGH MOMENT JENKINS RODNEY RODRIGUEZ E D 114
8 DEBBIE SUE SMITH HAMILTON A ROSE J 113
9 HUMORISTIC SMITH HAMILTON A MARQUEZ C H JR 114
10 ROSHANI PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 111
11 FEELIN' THE BREEZE ELAMRI HASSAN KARAMANOS H A 111
Eleven fillies and mares will contest Saturday's $100,000 Gallorette H. (G3) at Pimlico, and GRIGORIEVA (Ire) (Woodman) looks primed to star on the Preakness undercard. A half-sister to multiple Group 1 king Electrocutionist, Grigorieva began her career with Andre Fabre in France. The chestnut captured the listed Prix des Lilas in slashing style at Saint-Cloud last June, then unsuccessfully took on the brilliant Mandesha (Desert Style) in a pair of group events. Grigorieva was promoted to second in the Prix Chloe (Fr-G3) and finished a creditable sixth in the Prix d'Astarte (Fr-G1), just one spot behind subsequent Matriarch S. (G1) heroine Price Tag (GB) (Dansili [GB]).
In her U.S. debut for Graham Motion, Grigorieva missed the break but closed furiously for second in the one-mile Dahlia S. last month. She figures to be sharper this time around, and the likely fast pace and extra sixteenth of a mile can only be to her advantage. Also, she gets in with only 114 pounds, eight fewer than PRECIOUS KITTEN (Catienus). Ramon Dominguez picks up the mount on Grigorieva, who is equally adept on firm or soft ground.
Grade 2 winner Precious Kitten deserves credit for consistency, but with her top weight of 122 pounds, and at a skimpy 8-5 on the morning line, she's worth opposing in this spot. The half-sister to 2004 champion turf horse Kitten's Joy has been in fine form this year. After finishing an honorable runner-up to champion Wait a While (Maria's Mon) in the Honey Fox H. (G3), the Bobby Frankel trainee was just caught late by My Typhoon (Ire) (Giant's Causeway) in the off-the-turf Jenny Wiley S. (G2) most recently. Precious Kitten can be relied upon to give her typically genuine effort, but we don't think she's eight pounds better than Grigorieva. Note that her only unplaced effort on the turf came on good going at Ellis Park, so she could be compromised by give in the ground. Regular rider Rafael Bejarano returns to the saddle.
AUNT HENNY (Hennessy) was among the better three-year-old turf fillies in 2006. A rank fourth in the Honey Fox in her seasonal reappearance, she moved forward off that effort when second to the undefeated Vacare (Lear Fan) in the Magna Distaff S. A repeat of her last would put her in the top three here. The Michael Matz pupil gets a rider switch to Edgar Prado.
ROSHANI (Fantastic Light) is two-for-two since transferring to Todd Pletcher, but she has only a turf maiden score and a Polytrack allowance victory to her credit. On the plus side, Pletcher scratched her from Thursday's Steal a Kiss S. at Belmont Park, preferring this spot, and she fired a bullet over the deep Oklahoma training track last Saturday at Saratoga. Roshani is eligible to sneak into the exotics, but given her connections, she could also prove to be an underlay. HIGH MOMENT (High Yield) was the loose-on-the-lead pacesetter who just held on from Grigorieva in the Dahlia. She will have plenty of company on the front end here, however, and that will make it tougher for her to hang on for a share. DEBBIE SUE (Citidancer) is much better on the turf, and the 20-1 shot could come from the clouds for a minor award.
HUMORISTIC (Sefapiano) just missed in last year's Gallorette, but she hasn't threatened to win since and was a well beaten fifth in the Dahlia. A TRUE PUSSYCAT's (Yes It's True) dirt form is vastly better than her turf form; unless this is transferred to the main track, she looks up against it. TRICK'S PIC (Favorite Trick) should fuel the early pace before fading. COZY GAIN (Cozzene) and FEELIN' THE BREEZE (Belong to Me) haven't done anything to recommend them at this level.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-GRIGORIEVA (Ire)
2nd-PRECIOUS KITTEN
3rd-AUNT HENNY
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
WILL ROGERS S. (G3), 9TH-HOL, $100,000, 3YO, 1MT, 5:55 P.M. PDT, 5-19
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 SEVENGOLDNMISSILES MANDELLA GARY VALDIVIA J JR 115
2 WORLDLY (GB) CECIL B D A ESPINOZA V 119
3 HURRY HOME WARREN MENDOZA JESUS NAKATANI C S 115
4 LADDIES POKER CERIN VLADIMIR COHEN DAVID 117
5 CANDY'S BRO HOLLENDORFER JERRY MIGLIORE R 115
6 SILENT SOUL HOFMANS DAVID BAZE M C 119
7 MAYOR BOZARTH FRANKEL ROBERT J BLANC B 119
8 YARIO (IRE) HARTY EOIN FLORES D R 115
Eight turf sophomores will contest Saturday's $100,000 Will Rogers S. (G3) at Hollywood Park, and we'll give a slight edge to the Bobby Frankel-trained MAYOR BOZARTH (Deputy Commander), who exits a second in the Grindstone S. at Fair Grounds. The dark bay colt wound up on the lead that afternoon, but both of his wins have come when rating just off the pace. With the speed in this field, he figures to sit the perfect trip under Brice Blanc, and Mayor Bozarth has captured his last two starts at the one-mile distance. He could prove impossible to get past in the stretch.
YARIO (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) recorded a sharp score when making his U.S. debut in an about 6 1/2-furlong allowance/optional claiming event last out, earning a 100 BRIS Late Pace rating when closing from next-to-last in the 12-horse field to win by a length, and the Eoin Harty charge could offer another strong late rally while stretching out to a mile on Saturday.
LADDIES POKER (Stravinsky) is another former European making his U.S. stakes debut off a sharp victory in his first start stateside. He broke his maiden last time, winning a one-mile special weight event at Santa Anita by three lengths, and stamped himself as a three-year-old turf horse to watch off that effort. We're inclined to use him on the bottom of the exotics, but the gray colt looks dangerous.
SILENT SOUL (Afternoon Deelites) exits an entry level, one-mile allowance win as the 3-5 favorite and finished a good second to Whatsthescript (Ire) (Royal Applause [GB]) in the Pasadena S. earlier this year. Silent Soul can't be eliminated from win consideration. WORLDLY (GB) (Selkirk) cuts back in distance off a visually impressive score in his U.S. bow, and he's a threat to move forward off that effort. We just wonder if he wants a little more ground.
CANDY'S BRO (E Dubai) will likely show speed under Richard Migliore, and the quick colt exits a couple of decent efforts on the turf. We'll watch to see how he handles this class hike. SEVENGOLDNMISSILES (Golden Missile) was no match for a couple of these rivals last time and has finished out of the money in his last two starts.
HURRY HOME WARREN (Mancini) will be a speed presence if he starts, but he's cross-entered to Sunday's Laz Barrera Memorial S. (G3) and trainer Jesus Mendoza has indicated that he may opt out of this spot.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-MAYOR BOZARTH
2nd-YARIO (Ire)
3rd-LADDIES POKER
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
HIRSCH JACOBS S. (G3), 6TH-PIM, $100,000, 3YO, 6F, 1:24 P.M. EDT, 5-19
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 SOUTHWESTERN HEAT SALZMAN TIMOTHY CAMACHO ERIC 116
2 SPORTS TOWN TERRANOVA JOHN P II VELAZQUEZ J R 118
3 HEART THROBBIN' LEATHERBURY KING T FOGELSONGER R 120
4 FINALLYMADEIT NEGRETE JAVIER NUNEZ E O 118
5 STREET MAGICIAN TROMBETTA MICHAEL J BEJARANO R 122
6 HOBBITONTHEROCKS PRECIADO RAMON DOMINGUEZ R A 116
7 STORMIN BAGHDAD PITTS HELEN PRADO E S 118
8 LIKE MOM LIKE SONS ATTARD SID C GOMEZ G K 122
A field of seven sprinters will line up for the six-furlong $100,000 Hirsch Jacobs S. (G3) on Saturday at Pimlico. We'll tab STREET MAGICIAN (Street Cry [Ire]) to return to form for the win.
Before placing fifth in the Withers S. (G3), the Michael Trombetta charge was on a two-race winning streak. The Larry Johnson homebred broke his maiden by eight lengths in February, scoring a career-best 102 BRIS Speed figure for the effort. In his next start, Street Magician took the seven-furlong Aventura S. in game fashion. Stretching out to a mile in the Withers, the bay failed to fire. He'll cut back to a preferred distance (2-1-0-1), and Street Magician should be poised to capture his first graded stakes win with jockey Rafael Bejarano.
HOBBITONTHEROCKS (Lion Hearted) has had two near misses recently in the Maryland Stallion Station S. and the Bay Shore S. (G3) against solid horses. While six furlongs may not be his best distance, the Ramon Preciado-trained gelding showed 106 and 111 BRIS E2 Speed numbers for the Maryland Stallion Station and the Bay Shore, respectively, and could give our top pick trouble with his speed.
LIKE MOM LIKE SONS (Carson City) will attempt to overcome his outside post position. The front-running Sid Attard trainee is four-for-four overall and loves the distance, winning three starts at six furlongs by a combined 11 3/4 lengths over Woodbine's Polytrack. The chestnut has turned in two bullet five-furlong workouts in the past two weeks and seems razor-sharp for his first dirt start. He'll be tested for class, but it doesn't hurt that he picks up the services of hot jockey Garrett Gomez.
SOUTHWESTERN HEAT (Gone West) is going to receive a class check in his stakes debut, but the speedball will definitely be a pace factor. He could hold for a small share.
HEART THROBBIN' (Formal Gold) narrowly defeated Hobbitontherocks last time, but he's mostly been running against lesser company. We'll let him beat us. FINALLYMADEIT (Concerto) has faced similar competition and hasn't fared well. We'll pass. STORMIN BAGHDAD (Stormin Fever) seems to prefer Polytrack and doesn't look fast enough to contend here.
SPORTS TOWN (Belong to Me) will be scratched after successfully taking the Ogygian S. by four lengths this past Wednesday.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-STREET MAGICIAN
2nd-HOBBITONTHEROCKS
3rd-LIKE MOM LIKE SONS
Preakness <HR style="COLOR: #336699" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->http://www.drf.com/row/pps/07preakness.pdf
1 Mint Slewlep (KY) 30/1 Alan Garcia 126 3 C LA W. Robert Bailes
2 Xchanger (FL) 15/1 Ramon A. Dominguez 126 3 C LA Mark Shuman
3 Circular Quay (KY) 8/1 John R. Velazquez 126 3 C LA Todd A. Pletcher
4 Curlin (KY) 7/2 Robby Albarado 126 3 C L Steven M. Asmussen
5 King Of The Roxy (OH) 12/1 Garrett K. Gomez 126 3 C LA Todd A. Pletcher
6 Flying First Class (CA) 20/1 Mark Guidry 126 3 C L D. Wayne Lukas
7 Hard Spun (PA) 5/2 Mario G. Pino 126 3 C LA J. Larry Jones
8 Street Sense (KY) 7/5 Calvin H. Borel 126 3 C L Carl A. Nafzger
9 C P West (KY) 20/1 Edgar S. Prado 126 3 C LA Nicholas P. Zito
