who are the best cappers in baseball this season?

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I see quite a few but don't know who to tail.Who has the best record. I don't look for chasers that are 50-48 and + 40 units.
 

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I see quite a few but don't know who to tail.Who has the best record. I don't look for chasers that are 50-48 and + 40 units.

You need to follow the ones that realize that avoiding bad days is more important than having good days.

If someone does not understand that, they have no chance.

:puppy:
 

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I see quite a few but don't know who to tail.Who has the best record. I don't look for chasers that are 50-48 and + 40 units.

And what does 50-48 +40 units have to do with chasing?


You can be 30-45 +40 and have the most sound money management in the world.

You can also be 100-50 and be the biggest chaser on the planet.
 

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because if you are 50-48 or 85-80 and you are + 40 units for example. You are the type of person to start the day 0-3 -8 units but then post 1 late play for 9 units and win. finishing 1-3 + 1 unit.
 

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because if you are 50-48 or 85-80 and you are + 40 units for example. You are the type of person to start the day 0-3 -8 units but then post 1 late play for 9 units and win. finishing 1-3 + 1 unit.


Im not trying to be rude, but this ranks right up there with the dumbest comments I have ever read.

There are a million ways someone can be 50-48. Every kind of capper in the world can be 50-48. The best money manager and the worst money manager can all go 50-48.

what about the guy that goes 3-2, 2-2 1-3, 3-2, 2-2. What if he does that almost everyday and is mostly a big dog better? This would come out to something very close to 50-48 +40 units.
 

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oh sorry im new to this. I didnt even think about underdogs.


I say the best kind of capper to follow is one that follows sound money management.

You hit that fact on the head.

You can learn alot about someone just by the way they manage there money.

Also, If a capper uses 20cent lines and only one book, you can automatically write them off as someone you dont want to follow.

The capper needs to keep a consistant pattern. If he is chasing like you say when losing, this is a no-no. Its very easy to spot a chaser.

If someone has a card with 5 plays at 3, 4 ,2 ,2 and 1 units, and the day is not going well, and all of a sudden he lays down a 7 unit play on the west coast game, this is a pure chase play.

So what he is saying is that he did not even feel like this add on was worthy of even being on his original card, but all of a sudden he adds a big 7 unit play to the late game.

So a game that was not even on the original card is all of a sudden the highest rated game of the day.

There is nothing wrong with adding plays during the day, as long as you have a good reason. You cant call someone a chaser just because they add games to the original card.

In some cases this poster may feel that if they wait till later they will get a better line, this is perfectly ok.

But money management is the first indication of how good they are.

If there money management sucks, they suck. Its that simple.
 

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its not very hard to learn how to manage your money practicing it on the other hand might be a task for some.
 

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you should also completely disregard someone that doesn't post their record. as Chop has indicated, unit record is far more important than W/L record, so focus more on units than W/L. if they don't post their record, there is more than likely a reason for that.

Generally speaking, the "10-2 in last 12!!!!!!!!!!!!!" or "7-1 in last 2 days" advertisers should be avoided as well. All that usually means is they were 4-18 in the week before that.

Find someone that suits your style. Some guys post 12 games per day and do well, others post 3 or 4. Some mainly play dogs, some mainly play favorites. There are a lot of good cappers on here with many varied styles.

The tracker forum is a good place to get an idea how some of the guys play. Not everyone posts in there, but many do and it will have all of their season plays in one thread.

Lastly, guys that post something like 2 or 3 unit plays as their lowest play are artificially inflating their unit records so take that into account when you review their posts.
 

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44 imo you are wrong on a couple of things .someone that dont post the record should be overlook here you are wrong if a guy had been posting for years and people know that capper to be ok then no big deal.as for 7-1 over the last few days.you are wrong again and this to me give people who hot etc and we all thru cold and hot spells..............ck this units thing is way overblown........
 

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44 imo you are wrong on a couple of things .someone that dont post the record should be overlook here you are wrong if a guy had been posting for years and people know that capper to be ok then no big deal.as for 7-1 over the last few days.you are wrong again and this to me give people who hot etc and we all thru cold and hot spells..............ck this units thing is way overblown........

why is it so hard for you to post a record?
 

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no what i was saying if newbies are reading these posts ,they should follow watch cappers over a period of time to get a good feel as to who needed to be follow or who not follow.people who know follow these posting forums on a reg thing know the posters that work hard and are serious about this and the others that just want to be notice,they are the ones that do not stick around too many yes..gl.ck
 

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With respect to carolinakid, I agree with fhmesq44. He really laid it out well IMO and I doubt I can really add much to it, but I'll try. Just to get this out of the way, I think carolina is a good capper and the only one here who does not post a record who I like to hear from. He's been here a long time and has earned respect from most here.

That aside though, generally I try to avoid those that go out of their way to trump themselves up as the next coming or something. Although a couple good cappers do this, generally it is a sign of inexperience or attention whoring, which winners don't need to do (after all, we're here to win, not to get our E-asses kissed). Record and money management are huge. When cappers are posting 10 or 15 unit plays, it's generally hard to take them seriously. A unit, to me, is a person's standard play. If someone is putting 15 times their standard play on 1 game, then they don't use proper money management. Plus, people who follow others generally aren't willing to risk that much on a play, so their results will be different. There's also a lot to be said for styles. Most go by the old rule that fewer plays = more success over the long haul. And that rule is generally a pretty solid one. There are a few cappers here, however, myself included, who have more success playing larger cards.

Once you are able to tell the good from the bad, the issue of style is probably the one that will decide the question for you. Like fhm said, there are a number of styles to choose from, even aside from the ones who play big or small cards. Some play bets ranging from 1 to 5 units. Some flat bet at 1 unit per play. Some play lots of dogs. Some play lots of favorites. Some play run lines. Some play props. You need to decide what you like before deciding who to follow.

Since nobody has given any names yet though, I'll try. I wish I could recommend Buffettgambler, but he recently left the forum scene. Choptalk, Dsethi, Green Machine, Tomorrow's Newspaper, Mark's Moneymakers, smartz, pyrocapper, and carolinakid would be the first recommendations that come to mind. And I believe that fhmesq has quietly had success with his system plays. He posts all plays in one thread so he doesn't get noticed as much because people don't want to dig through the big thread. Plus, it's a system, which a lot of people are weary of. Big Hustla is another option. He did well in NBA last season but went tout halfway through. I can't say whether he'll do the same in baseball, but I think he's a pretty decent capper. Finally, Ibethuge and 5 star bomb are doing well this year, but I can't claim to know enough about their capping abilities to say whether they're good or just hot though. That's not a shot at them, as I respect everyone who contributes here, and each of them certainly do so. They've done very well so far this year so I think they deserve a mention.

Finally, I'm sure I forgot one or two cappers, if not more. Apologies to those I left out.
 

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Just wanted to add a post from Buffettgambler early on this season that I think really hit the nail on the head.

Buffettgambler said:
I am sure some will perceive this as calling some posters out, but this is not attended to do such. Rather it meant as a tool that I feel is useful (but not the law) to help people find the 3 to 6% of handicappers that actually generate long term profits handicapping the sport. In my opinion, the best and possibly only way for you to truly find one of the “elite” is weeding out the 95% of people that don’t fit in this category using a filter system. From my two decades of handicapping and time spent on forums, here are some filtering variables that you can quickly use to find out who isn’t the best.

1.) The easiest way to find out who hasn’t been making long term money in handicapping on these forums is analyzing their money management techniques when these posters are willing to share such. One of the most surprising things I have witnessed on gambling forums is that so many people display a lack of proper money management discipline. It is not an art, rather a discipline that is easy to master and should be installed in ones handicapping process prior to making a single bet. Keep your eyes on people betting games with different amounts on each game. I can’t believe how many people risk 200%, 500% and even more on certain games compared to others. When you see a poster using such money management techniques, don’t walk away from their posts, run. This is the easiest and fastest way to find out if a certain handicapper has been doing this for a long time at a successful rate, as anyone that has had success would know such a technique is simply ridiculous. I still remember how a long term successful gambler put it to me nearly 20 years ago. He said “that the key to handicapping is taking the “coin flipping” out of the results by obtaining a sustainable edge. Once you have achieved such you are on your way to generate very rewarding returns. Betting different amounts on games puts the “coin flipping” right back into your handicapping”. There have been several Monte Carlo simulations that have shown that the Kelly Criterion money management technique actually diminishes the expected returns nearly 90% of the time. When one could accurately justify that one bet has a greater chance of hitting than another one he plans to bet, weeding out processes gives you a better chance of enhancing returns. Although I feel the Kelly Criterion is too aggressive, some of the posters techniques I see on a daily basis blow it a way. Think about it. Take the people that bet 10 times (or 1000%) more on certain games. What percent chance do these people think these bets have of cashing in and how much higher is it compared to the one unit bets they make. Even if they say these bets have a 60% of hitting while the one unit bets have a 55% it makes NO SENSE whatsoever to risk that much more on a 5% edge, and anyone that tells you the disparity is greater is full of it. Anyone using a progressive or Martingale system is another person that has not generated long term gains nor does this person have a strong mathematical background. Weed those people out as well. Believe it or not, you have just weeded out 40% of posters (would be more if more were willing to share their money management techniques).

2.) What I also see on forums are people that bump threads on every winning post. I have never seen an environment where such high rates of people die for attention. Realizing that about 95% of poster have not been able to generate long term gains you will quickly understand why they feel the need for attention when they have a winning day. They know these days are not sustainable and have not been sustainable since entering this industry. All the successful handicappers that I have had the pleasure of knowing over the years are the most humble and modest people I know. They wouldn’t get caught dead on an internet forum pumping their chest every time they put down a post that makes money. “Attention whoring” is a dead give away that someone has not yet achieved that 3 to 5 % status. Keep your eye out on thread bumpers and attention whores- and cross them off your list of successful handicappers.


3.) Now that you have weeded out about 60% of posters, with the ones remaining, if they are willing to share the derivation of their picks, take advantage of it. Look at why they chose such pick. I see a lot of flaws in peoples reasoning behind picks, and they are easy to spot. To a certain degree, they are subjective, but distinguishable. Filter out the people whose reasoning’s defy logic and are not correlated to outcomes of the games.

4.) Having a strong statistical background is a huge asset for handicappers. Not having it is a detriment, but not a wall that prevents a handicapper from being successful. But there are a lot of fallacies that I see posted everyday that straight up defies statistical logic and pretty much shows the handicappers lack of experience. When I see posts in the likes of “I am hot, follow me” or “ I am due, follow me”, or “I am cold, fade me”, my advice is to not simply not read any of their posts again, as they are defying key handicapping logic, by actually thinking there is substance behind streaks of independent events. Handicapping is NOT about hot and cold streaks. In fact, hot and cold streaks are absolutely meaningless for independent events such as betting baseball games. If you have a handicapper that lacks a sustainable edge, and is on a hot streak, the expected results of his future outcomes of the next 10, 100, or 1000 bets is still simply his “intrinsic handicapping value” (or mean average).-implying that he is likely to hit 50% going forward. Hot streaks ONLY hold merit when there exists a structural change in ones handicapping intrinsic value. If a long term 50% handicapper has improved his techniques that have allowed him to achieve a hot streak, then it holds merit, as his “mean” has increased. Otherwise, hot and cold streaks are utterly useless and hold no merit, as does any other independent normal distribution outcome of events. Keep an eye out for posters that swear by streaks and think there is substance behind them. My guess is that they are new to this game and don’t understand what regression means. The key is not trying to achieve hot streaks and prevent cold steaks, they are both are bound to happen. The key is deriving a solid money management technique that curtails the effect of both streaks, as something that holds no statistical substance should have as little effect as possible on ones bankroll. I advise you to filter out such posters as well.

5.) Number four leads right to number five. I always see on these handicapping forums people that try to “time” their bets. When they are “hot” posters have a tendency to bet more per game or bet more games. All this does is simply show their lack of experience, and essentially their ignorance of timing independent variables. However, one should acknowledge the effects of long run hot and cold streaks on their bankroll and adjust accordingly (ie % of bankroll method).


6.) Keep your eye out for trend bettors and tread cautiously with such. People that solely rely on trends on deriving sides are missing the bigger picture. Most trends are merely randomness found by “data mining” and hold no substance. The few trends that do hold substance has an underlying self fulfilling prophecy working against itself.

7) For baseball, keep your eye out for people that consistently fail to acknowledge price. These people have the tendency to pick heavy favorites and are more concerned about their winning percentage than getting positive returns. Essentially, handicapping baseball comes down to one thing- your line vs. the market line. The market line is derived by a linesmakers that probably knows more than you will ever know about the sport. It is derived by what he thinks the line should be coupled with the expected supply and demand on the particular game. Beating the number takes advantage of the seconded embedded variable in the linemakers line. Simply put, filter out the people that neglect such a concept.

8.) I can’t believe how many people don’t understand the concept of being willing to understand that it DOES make sense at times to bet teams you think has a greater chance of losing than winning. Price is everything. Distinguishing the value of a particular team on a particular game and comparing it to the market price is handicapping. Deriving the value most accurately, is derived by power ratings that help one distinguish the chance a team has of winning on a given game. If one comes up with the Royals having a 40% chance of beating the White Sox on a certain day, and they are +200, they make for a huge value play and warrant a bet. I can’t believe how many people fail to realize such, and are narrowly minded into thinking if a team is more likely to lose, they don’t warrant a bet. Filter these people out.

All in all you are probably left with 10 to 15 % of remaining posters. There are several other variables that one can distinguish whether a certain poster is successful in the long run. Also note that there does exist successful long run handicappers that still fit in one or two of these categories. Also keep in mind, that there will be several posters that fit into at least one of these categories and will make a profit this year but lack a sustainable edge. However, this will be a product of luck than skill, randomness over substance…but they will not understand such a concept.

Good luck this upcoming season.

The whole thread, located here, is definitely worth a read.
 

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no what i was saying if newbies are reading these posts ,they should follow watch cappers over a period of time to get a good feel as to who needed to be follow or who not follow.people who know follow these posting forums on a reg thing know the posters that work hard and are serious about this and the others that just want to be notice,they are the ones that do not stick around too many yes..gl.ck

Agree with that. You seem to be the lone exception to the post records and recent record advertising. I wasn't saying that one shouldn't advertise a recent hot streak. HOwever, I think you will agree that, generally speaking, the guys that don't post records and are streak advertisers are also generally the guys that don't stick around long and/or don't win regularly. As I said, you seem to be the lone exception. However, I still don't understand why you don't post a record.

While you may be a good capper, new posters won't know that and would have to wade through 100s of posts of your's alone to find that out.
 

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44 agreed to what you and Jibbs said kept up the good work both of you do for the forum here and i hope i can help out too..gl always...ck
 

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