Jibba's Monday MLB

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Money Lines:

Favorites: 115-63 for +24.99 units
Underdogs: 35-34 for +10.13 units
Total: 130-83 for for +35.12 units

Run Lines: 4-5 for +0 unit

Parlays: 0-2 for -2.97 units

_____________________________________________________

Yet another day ruined by some tough beats yesterday. The Colorado loss I can live with, because they played awful and didn't deserve to win, despite being tying it up in the 11th and then having 2 on and 1 out with Atkins at the plate. But the Baltimore loss really stung. Washington couldn't do anything all day long, only to be handed the win by Danny Baez. But that's why they play the full 9 innings. On to today.

Boston +143: I'm really having trouble comprehending this line. Let's run down a few stats here. The Yankees are barely .500 at home this year and are 4 games under .500 overall. The Sox are 14-6 on the road this year (20-6 last 26 road games) and 17 games over .500 overall. Boston has won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams, along with 4 of the last 5 in Yankee Stadium. Boston has a road ERA of 2.59 while NY has a home ERA of 5.21. Wakefield is 4-4 on the year with a 2.41 ERA while Wang is 2-3 with a 4.54 ERA. The Sox are 5-4 this year as an underdog, including their last matchup in Yankee Stadium against Wang when they won as more than a 2-1 dog with Julian Taverez pitching. The Yankees have won 2 of their last 8 games as favorites.

Over their last 10 games, the Yankees have gone 3-7 while batting .255. Conversely, the Sox have gone 7-3 while batting .282 over that span. If we look at the bullpens, we also see quite a mismatch. NY's bullpen has put up an ERA of 4.18 on the year while Boston's pen has an ERA of 2.96. Finally, while the Yankees have hit Wakefield at times in the past (4.61 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .232 BAA), the Sox have hit Wang much harder (5.05 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, .302 BAA). And after all this, I'm supposed to believe that not only do the Yankees deserve to be favored, but at -143? Sorry, I'll take Wakefield and his 1.39 road ERA over Wang and his 5.31 home ERA. 1 unit to win 1.??.*

*When I wrote this out, the available line on Matchbook was +143. It has now dropped to +140, so I will wait to see what line I can get and then post the line that I play. I assume that with all the Yankee backers I see here today, this line will go up again.

More to come later. BOL to everyone on their cards today.
 

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It's good to know someone else is on the Sox today. It seems like everyone is on the Yankees.

Good luck

Yeah, and not only that, but many cappers are making the Yanks a big play. Figured I might catch a little heat for making a homer play, but this is far from it. If we take away the pinstripes, the Yankees are just a team that has played very poorly this year and who does not deserve to be favored against the Sox, or at very least, not at this price.
 

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I agree with that. Here's my writeup:


It seems like every respectable handicapper that I know is on the Yankees today. I just don't understand why. We don't know if Chien-Ming Wang is 100 percent yet. Sure, he shut down the White Sox, but he surrendered seven earned runs his previous start. In fact, Boston has defeat him the last two times they hit against him. Also, check out this stat: The Red Sox are 12-10 in New York. Doesn't sound too impressive, but that comes out to a whopping +9 Units (-10.6 Units for the Yankees). So, we're essentially betting on a 55.6 percent proposition with a +135 payout. I like that a lot.

* Tim Wakefield (R) is 3-2; 1.39 ERA; 1.02 WHIP; +1.4 Units on the road.
* Chien-Ming Wang (R) is 1-2; 5.31 ERA; 1.13 WHIP; -3.9 Units at home.

Prediction: Red Sox +135.
 

RX SemiGod
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jibba what is your thought about Sabathia and his tribe ..they look damn good at home, looking at run line ?
 

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Nice writeup sos. Makes me feel even more comfortable with the play. Thanks.

Milwaukee +116: Both teams come into this matchup having played pretty poorly recently. And the Dodgers would seem to have an advantage in that Brett Tomko is an impressive 7-1 with a 3.38 ERA and a .263 BAA in his career against the Brewers. But how much can we really take from these stats? After all, when was the last time the Brewers had a team as good as they do this year? The last time Tomko started against the Brewers was 2005, when he faced them once at home. He also faced them once in 2004. So for the rest of his stats against this team, we have to go back 4+ years.

Instead of focusing on how Tomko looked 4+ years ago against a completely different team, I think it's more helpful to look at how he's done this year, particularly at home where he'll be tonight. In his last home start, Tomko was crushed by the anemic Cardinal's offense, giving up 8 ERs and 9 hits in 2.1 innings. Before that he had a very poor relief appearance against Arizona in which he couldn't even get 3 outs. In his other 2 home appearances, Tomko gave up 8 hits and 3 ERs in 6 innings against the Pirates and 1 hit and 0 ERs in 6 innings against the Rockies. I think it's becoming clear that the Rockies start, aside from being against a weak road offense, was the exception and not the rule.

To me, taking Suppan in this matchup isn't much of a question. Although he hasn't looked as solid in his last 2 starts, he won't be facing an offense like the Mets or Phillies tonight. Despite Milwaukee's poor play on the road this year, Suppan has put up a 3.78 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP away from home this year. I think he can put up a solid enough performance tonight to take some pressure off of the Brewers' young offense. And I think Prince and company will do the rest. 1 unit to win 1.16.
 

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jibba what is your thought about Sabathia and his tribe ..they look damn good at home, looking at run line ?

Love the Tribe again today. Pretty massive line on this one, but rightfully so. I'm definitely considering the run line but haven't decided yet. I'm also considering a parlay of the Reds and Indians, which feels like a total public play but just seems solid.

thecakeoff said:
What about the Rockies?

I'd have a lot of trouble backing the Rockies after the way they lost yesterday. Losses like that can really send a team into a downspin, and going against the reigning Cy Young after such a loss can't be easy, despite his troubles so far this year. Cook has been bad in the past against Arizona, but has been surprisingly solid on the road this year (even though the Rockies as a whole have been pretty bad on the road). I'd still expect him to go about 5-6 innings while giving up 3-4 runs in this one, and then the question becomes which Webb we'll see tonight. The Cy Young or the underachiever of 2007?
 

Solomon Alabi - The Next Big Thing
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Had a pretty bad weekend making my picks. Good Satuday, horrible Sunday. Take the week off and follow you sir.
 

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Sorry to hear it DRays. I had a pretty poor weekend myself and am considering not doing my own capping on the weekends from here on out. I keep losing on the weekends and think I may not be investing enough time on Saturday and Sunday mornings.

San Francisco -124: The Giants come into the matchup having gone 8-2-1 in their last 11 games as a favorite. They have won 37 of the last 53 meetings between these two teams. They send Noah Lowry to the mound tonight for his second straight start against the Astros. In the last matchup, Lowry put up an impressive 8 innings allowing only 2 ERs on 8 hits. Even with the loss, he improved him numbers to 3-1 against Houston with a 1.45 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a .193 BAA in 4 starts. And tonight should be more of the same considering how he's pitched at home this year. In 4 home starts, Lowry is 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a .221 BAA. That's right in line with his career starts considering that Lowry's ERA is over a point and a half better at home than on the road (3.23 v. 5.02).

Sampson has been a nice story this year, but he's had a bit of trouble on the road, putting up a 5.23 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a .318 BAA. I can't see him shutting down this San Fran offense like he did in Houston, especially considering that the Giants are a much better team on the road. In their last 15 home games, the Giants have gone 10-5, with all but 1 of the losses coming against the Mets and Phillies. On the other hand, the Astros have been pretty consistent this year in losing games which they should lose. In their last 13 games as an underdog, they have won only 4. Furthermore, in their last 13 games on the road, Houston has again won only 4. I like this price on Lowry and the Giants now that they're finally back home. 1.24 units to win 1.
 

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Hey Jibba

I think it is a good call on Boston. The way i see it, and the way the Yankees have been struggling (even though their bats came somewhat alive the last to outings against the mets) the value lies in Boston.

I think the game will be close, but from a value perspective i think you're dead on.

Good luck with the plays.

Regards

Nüpst
 

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Completely agree Nupst. At worst I think the Sox are 50/50 to win this game, and getting +140 or so on a 50/50 proposition is good value. BOL today.
 

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Hey Jibba

I think it is a good call on Boston. The way i see it, and the way the Yankees have been struggling (even though their bats came somewhat alive the last to outings against the mets) the value lies in Boston.

I think the game will be close, but from a value perspective i think you're dead on.

Good luck with the plays.

Regards

Nüpst



Glad to see you have found this forum as well. I feel you will thoroughly enjoy Jibba and Boxslayers write-ups, analytical thought process towards handicapping baseball, and results.
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Good luck Jibba. Solid as always.
 

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Sorry dude, I have to against your BoSox play. After the impressive night, I think Yankees will wake up a bit that they can still Win. Plus, they are playing @ home tonight. The Yankees fans will make this stadium as loud as it could be. I will see Mariano Rivera play in the 9th Inning tonight. May the force be with Yankees!!
Yankees -150
GL
 

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Glad to see you have found this forum as well. I feel you will thoroughly enjoy Jibba and Boxslayers write-ups, analytical thought process towards handicapping baseball, and results.
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Good luck Jibba. Solid as always.

Pleasure to hear from you BG. Thanks for the kind words. I hope you are still having success in your plays.

mansiu777,

That's the most common reasoning given for backing the Yankees tonight, but I just don't understand it. The Yankees haven't shown any reason for being such large favorites, and to expect them to all of a sudden "wake up" is being a bit too optimistic in my opinion. I think it's fair to say that the Sox were impressive over the weekend, while saying the Yankees were impressive is quite a stretch considering that they lost 2 of 3. Yanks could certainly win this one, but I think the value is on Boston. BOL.
 

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Pleasure to hear from you BG. Thanks for the kind words. I hope you are still having success in your plays.

mansiu777,

That's the most common reasoning given for backing the Yankees tonight, but I just don't understand it. The Yankees haven't shown any reason for being such large favorites, and to expect them to all of a sudden "wake up" is being a bit too optimistic in my opinion. I think it's fair to say that the Sox were impressive over the weekend, while saying the Yankees were impressive is quite a stretch considering that they lost 2 of 3. Yanks could certainly win this one, but I think the value is on Boston. BOL.
Good to see you Buffett and thanks for the write-ups Jibba.
 

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BOL on you plays today Jibba.

Any thoughts about that Minnesota (Silva) Texas (Padilla) game?
 

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Thanks guys.

mulhs,

Don't have a solid enough feel for that Twins game really, although my initial lean is on the Twins at +120 or so. I think Padilla is a good fade and Morneau has had a lot of success in Texas recently. That may continue if Padilla still can't get lefties out (.337 BAA against lefties this year).

As much as I try to stay away from run line plays, I think I have to go with these.

Cleveland -1.5, -107: Cleveland is playing far too well, especially at home, for Baek and the Mariners. Baek has a road ERA of 6.88 and a road BAA of .314. Those are horrible numbers to walk into Jacobs Field with this year. 1.07 units to win 1.

Cincinatti -1.5, -104: Well Washington is back on the road and should be back on their losing ways. Arroyo has been great in 2 career starts against the Nats and Speigner should continue to have troubles as he moves from reliever to starter. Reds have won 10 of 12 against the Nats and should win this one walking away. 1.04 units to win 1.

May have 1 or 2 more plays before, but at this point I'm leaning against them.
 

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