MONDAY Service Plays 5/21
Larry Ness
Brewers at Dodgers
Prediction: Dodgers
The Dodgers were outscored 19-4 by the Angels in a three-game set in Anaheim, a sweep which concluded Sunday with a 4-1 Angel victory. The series ended the positive momentum from the Dodgers' 5-1 homestand which preceded it. This three-game series against the Brewers may be just what the Dodgers need as they have won five straight games against Milwaukee in Los Angeles. The Brewers are 9-22 at Dodger Stadium since joining the National League in 1998. Milwaukee, which is opening a six-game road trip, had dropped seven of nine before coming back from a four-run deficit to beat Minnesota 6-5 on Sunday and avoid a three-game sweep. That nine-game slide began with a 2-5 road swing. The Brewers are 17-7 at home, but only 10-10 away from Miller Park. Jeff Suppan goes for Milwaukee tonight and he's lost two straight (5.54 ERA) after logging a five-game winning streak. Suppan, who is 3-4 with a 3.78 ERA in eight career starts against the Dodgers, gave up two runs in seven innings of a 5-4 home loss to them on April 4. Los Angeles will counter with Brett Tomko (1-4, 5.97), who was pounded for eight runs and nine hits in just 2.1 innings of last Monday's 8-4 loss to St. Louis. He was coming off his first win of the season - a 5-3 victory at Florida in which he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning. Tomko is 0-2 with a 7.80 ERA in four outings, including three starts, at Dodger Stadium this season. However, he has pitched well against the Brewers, going 7-1 with a 3.38 ERA in 13 career appearances, including 11 starts. Take the Dodgers.
Lenny Del Genio
Rockies at Diamondbacks
Prediction: Rockies
We're catching a huge price on Colorado in this one and here's why it's worth the risk. Arizona's Brandon Webb is 3-1 with a 2.20 ERA versus the rest of MLB in 2007 but 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA in three starts this year versus the Rockies (including a 5-3 loss at Coors last Wednesday). The right-hander is also looking for his first win at Chase Field this season, where he is 0-2 with a 5.14 ERA in three outings. Aaron Cook (3-1, 4.40) will start for Colorado as he tries to beat Arizona for the second straight start and win his fourth straight decision overall. The right-hander allowed three runs and five hits in six innings while out-pitching Webb last Wednesday. The D-Backs haven't been hitting that well this year. And despite scoring 19 runs while taking two of three games from the Pirates over the weekend, Arizona hadn't scored more than five in any of its previous 15 contests. Take the big price with Cook and Colorado.
EXECUTIVE
LA DODGERS -110 over Milwaukee
LT Lock
CLEVELAND CAVS
Paul Leiner
5* White Sox -120
Gold Key
(Paid Play): Cleveland Cavs +6.5
The Wunderdog
Game: Seattle at Cleveland (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Seattle +205
Cleveland has been about the biggest surprise in baseball this season. They have been getting good pitching and timely hitting. There comes a time however, when the price to play exceeds the value to play. Tonight, looking at this game on the surface, it appears that perhaps there is again value on the Indians. But a closer look reveals that this line is not taking into account several factors and that there is in fact value in fading Cleveland. Seattle has been the best team in baseball vs. LHP this season. While they average 4.1 rpg vs. RHP, they get a full 2 runs-per-game more vs. lefties (6.1 rpg). It isn't just that they are scoring a lot vs. southpaws. It's the quality of the lefties they are beating that tells the story. Here are the left-handed pitchers the Mariners have crushed: Santana (ERA rank #13), DelaRosa (ERA rank #18), Danks (ERA rank #28), Pettitte (ERA rank #9), Robertson (ERA rank #19), Kennedy (ERA rank #5), Saunders (ERA rank #2). They have a 6-2 record!
vs. LHP, and in 7 of those games, they faced off vs the top 19 in ERA! C.C. Sabathia is a very good pitcher but lately he has fallen a bit. He has issued more hits than innings pitched over his last five starts and has allowed 6 HR's and an ERA of 4.51. Cha Seung Baek has been more than average. He broke in last season with 34.1 innings allowing just 26 hits, going 4-1 with an ERA of just 3.67. His numbers are quite similar to that this season if you take out his one bad start vs the Yankees. His ERA is 3.46, and the Mariners have won 4 of his 5 starts, making the Mariners now 9-2 in his career starts. We have made a lot of money backing the Tribe, and our view of them hasn't changed. But under the circumstances here tonight, the value truly resides with Seattle at this price.
Dave Cokin
Take "(906) LA Dodgers
"Brett Tomko is 7-1 lifetime against the Brewers, which is definitely an attention grabber. The flip side is the veteran righty has been in poor form and so are the Dodgers. But Milwaukee is also in a bit of a funk, and even with the Sunday win over the Twins, they're not looking like a go with team just now. The Dodgers need to get back on track after getting swept in Anaheim, and I'll give them a vote of confidence as they get back home for this game."
Hondo Likes the As Tonight
The Hondo Kiss of Death worked its black magic on the Twins yesterday, putting a halt to their inter league winning streak at 12. Fortunately for Mr. Aitch, the Chisox were able to overcome the HKOD, so the earnings increased to 175 ciscos. Tonight, since Danks is for the memories, he suggests a Blan ton play in Chicago - 10 units on the A's.
Michael Cannon
Money Train
50 Dime
PISTONS
5 Dime
A’s
Mighty ! Quinn
Minnesota Twins
NBA:Cleveland at Detroit 8:00 pm EDT Mon May 21, 2007
Cleveland at Detroit
Game Info: 8:00 pm EDT Mon May 21, 2007
DETROIT (AP) -- When threatened, the Detroit Pistons are at their best.
Too much cockiness usually doesn't work for the Pistons because it lulls them into a false sense of security, leading to 1-on-1 moves and lackluster effort on defense and the glass.
Detroit plays up to its vast potential by sharing the ball, defending with passion and rebounding aggressively.
The Pistons know they have to stick to that script in the conference finals -- starting Monday night at home -- because LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers are good enough to beat them in a matchup of the East's top-seeded teams.
Detroit doubted that entering the conference semifinals last year. It almost cost the Pistons after winning the first two games.
Cleveland won three straight and had the Pistons on the brink of elimination -- coming off two straight trips to the NBA finals -- before they responded to adversity again by winning the last two games.
"What helps us is what they did to us last year," Detroit coach Flip Saunders said. "That's a positive for us. They had us down, and we came back and knew we had to win Game 6 to get to Game 7.
"That's why this year, except for the one game when we got beat in overtime, we came out focused knowing if we didn't, they would beat us."
Detroit beat the Cavs in three of four games during the regular season, with the lone loss coming in overtime.
James said it doesn't matter that the Pistons view Cleveland as more of a challenge than they did a year ago.
"It's not about trying to win somebody's respect," he said. "It's about trying to win a series."
The Cavs are more confident about their chances to advance to the NBA finals -- for the first time since the franchise was born in 1970 -- than they were a year ago.
"We feel like we can do it," reserve point guard Eric Snow said. "We just have to go out and get it done."
James is better and his teammates are, too, perhaps because the 22-year-old star seems to rely on them more on the court in his fourth NBA season and second postseason.
"Coming in, he thought he had to do so much," Saunders said. "He kept the ball so much. Now, he makes quicker decisions and he trusts his teammates more."
Larry Hughes is much healthier than he was last season and has helped Cleveland by being a scoring option from the point guard position. Sasha Pavlovic, a non-factor a year ago, is contributing.
The Cavs are deeper, too, with players like high-energy forward Anderson Varejao a part of a nine-man rotation.
"The difference between them a year ago or two years ago and this year, is that they're not a one-man team," Saunders said. "They have more people they can go to, they play their bench more and they always seem to have someone who comes up big for them."
James acknowledged his teammates played a big role in lifting Cleveland to the conference finals for the first time since 1992.
"Without them this definitely wouldn't be possible," he said. "We've been talking about trying to make a run, we've been chanting, `championship' all year and now we've made it closer to what we want to accomplish."
The Pistons are fueled by the disappointments that have followed their 2004 title, the third in franchise history. Detroit had a chance to repeat in Game 7 at San Antonio.
Last year, Detroit lost to the eventual champion Miami Heat in the conference finals after the Cavs added to a season-long grind for a team that won an NBA-high and franchise-record 64 games.
"Going seven games with them, it took a lot out of us. You have to give them credit," reserve guard Lindsey Hunter said of Cleveland's effort in the seven-game conference semifinals. "It probably cost us making it back to the finals."
The Pistons are in the conference finals for the fifth straight year, a streak matched just four other times in 20-plus years, after beating Chicago in six games and opening the postseason with a sweep over Orlando.
The Cavs began the postseason by sweeping seventh-seeded Washington and eliminating sixth-seeded New Jersey in six games.
"They're a team to be reckoned with now," Hunter said. "They've made it this far and all of the elite teams are still playing, so you have to consider them elite. We have to really buckle down and be focused.
"Tested or not, they've made it so they deserve to be here."
Monday Horse Racing Spot Picks
SPOT PLAYS
For Monday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Calder Race Course (3rd) Honkeytonkville, 4-1
(5th) Dane K., 5-1
Delaware Park (6th) Midnight Duel, 6-1
(9th) Aim South, 3-1
Finger Lakes (4th) Adaptation, 5-1
(9th) Time Stands Still, 6-1
Fort Erie (4th) Cent T Mint, 7-2
(7th) New Girlfriend, 4-1
Great Lakes Downs (1st) Game Chip, 7-2
(2nd) High Wire Henry, 3-1
Hastings Park (4th) Tango Mango, 4-1
(9th) Krone, 7-2
Indiana Downs (7th) Shamethemoon, 7-2
(8th) Ma Moo's Spitfire, 6-1
Mountaineer (1st) Honor Grades Jr., 5-1
(10th) Karakorum Keepsake, 5-1
Philadelphia Park (1st) Radiant Gem, 3-1
(2nd) Dynacrown, 3-1
Prairie Meadows (4th) Premium Option, 7-2
(8th) Sinister Sister, 4-1
Suffolk Downs (3rd) Sun Stroke, 7-2
(9th) Sing Me Back Home, 6-1
Woodbine (5th) Distinguished Lady, 10-1
(10th) Callwood Dancer (Ire), 4-1
CALDER
Analysis:: by Ron Nicoletti
12:50PM
Race 1 -
2 BIG WAVE DAVE should break on top and notch the maiden win after setting the pace and weakening late vs. better in a pair of local sprints. Trainer Fred Warren has Jose Rivera II atop Big Dave. 1 ONEEYEDPARROT, 3 for 6 in the money at the distance, is turning back after stalking the pace and weakening to finish fourth in consecutive starts at Tampa. 7-pound apprentice David Cardoso hops aboard. 6 PUBLIC OPINION can close the gap on Big Wave Dave after dueling for lead from Post 10 and fading to finish fifth - beaten 6 1/4 lengths at 85-1.
2-1-6
Race 2 -
1 NINTH OF JULY makes her 4-year-old debut the first start since hitting the board in three consecutive 5-furlong turf sprints here last fall (3-0-2-1). Trainer Phil Gleaves has the daughter of Sea Salute training forwardly for this assignment. 6 CAROLINA TRIPPER finds a nice spot to step up the competition after setting the pace and finishing second in her Gulfstream turf finale vs. $25K maidens. Trainer Steve Dwoskin reunites the daughter of Trippi with jockey Elvis Trujillo. 3 DIMESTORE DOLLY is stepping up the competition after dueling for the lead and getting beat a head on the main track vs. $12.5K maidens last out. Trainer Kirk Ziadie, 19% with the dirt-to-turf move, has leading apprentice Sally Mitchellhill atop the daughter of Halos and Horns.
1-6-3
Race 3 -
5 MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN, who broke her maiden here at this distance on Dec. 10, stretches out after stalking the pace and fading when facing similar in her local return at a mile. 4 GERARDA MOON is stretching out to a mile & 70 yards after losing her best chance when she was squeezed back at the start vs. $10K "two-lifetime" claimers at 6 1/2 furlongs. 7 HONKEYTONKVILLE will try $16K "two-lifetime" claimers in the southern part of the state after posting by far the best last-race speed figure (65) when drawing clear, at 17-1, to defeat $8K maidens at Tampa. Trainer Dominique Gombaud-Saintonge has jockey Pedro Monterrey Jr. going for 2 in a row.
5-4-7
Race 4 -
3 PLACIDO added fodder to the horse-for-course theory when he returned to notch his seventh victory from 18 starts on the Calder sod. The 10-time winner at the distance is reunited with jockey Abel Castellano Jr. 6 ZAFIN is hoping to find a little more for the stretch drive after gaining late to finish second behind Placido last out. 5 QUARTIER BLANC is shortening up to 5 furlongs after using his speed to win 2 of 5 route races on the lawn. Trainer Pablo Andrade has Elvis Trujillo handling the classic turnback move. 7 LUCKY TO COPE is hoping for a little luck in the early going after recovering from a poor start, in which he broke 10th and last, to finish fourth behind Placido last out.
3-6-5-7
Race 5 -
1 GRENADE HALL, who broke his maiden here at a mile in 2005, stretches out after dueling throughout and finishing a willing third vs. similar in his local return at 7 furlongs. Note that trainer Bill White has a strong 27% win average with horses stretching out in distance. 5 DANE K. is stretching out slightly after rallying to finish a good second vs. similar in his local return at a mile & 70 yards. Note that trainer David Fawkes has a 17% win average with horses making the second start after a 45-180 day layoff. 6 EIGHT MILE ROCK will try a mile and a sixteenth after rallying to finish third behind Dane K, as the favorite, last out. Trainer Milt Wolfson tabs 7-pound apprentice Sally Mitchellhill to ride as leading jock Manoel Cruz moves to 10 COCHRAN. The gelding faces winners after drawing clear to break his maiden at the distance by 2 1/2 lengths.
1-5-6-10
Race 6 -
8 KING ANTHONY is stretching out to a mile & 70 yards after responding to a drop in competition with an improved but troubled (bothered stretch) second place finish vs. this caliber of competition at 6 1/2 furlongs. 6 DIXIE PIPE, who dwelt at the start when finishing second vs. similar at Tampa, and hesitated at the start prior to finishing second here last out, just needs to get away from the gate in a timely fashion to shed the maiden tag. 5 DOC TOUR drops to the bottom after hitting the board vs. better at Gulfstream and Tampa before the 7-week freshening. 4 ROAD TO DAMASCUS will be outfitted with blinkers after recovering from a slow start to finish third vs. similar last out. Trainer Fred Warren claimed him last out and tabs Leroy Nelson to ride.
8-6-5-4
Race 7 -
5 HUSKER NATION gets some class relief after losing all chance when he broke in the air vs. $16K optional claimers in his local return at the distance. Trainer Steve Standridge lightens the load with apprentice Sally Mitchellhill. 7 SONG SONG BLUE is stretching out to three-quarters of a mile after dueling for the lead and finishing second in his local returns vs. similar at 5 1/2 furlongs. Trainer Luis Olivares has 10-pound bug Luis Colon named to ride. 1 THIS CAT'S BEST drops into this $25K "two-lifetime" claimer in the first start since he drew clear to defeat $80K maidens at Churchill last June. Shawn Musgrave takes over the training duties and has jockey Ariel Smith handling the colt's first start in 11-plus months.
5-7-1
Race 8 -
4 FROSTY SECRET is turning back to 6 1/2 furlongs after a sharp performance in the 1-mile Withers (G3) in which he attended the pace and finished third behind Divine Park and Preakness participant C P West. 6 IZZIE'S HALO, whose biggest outing thus far was a second place finish behind Kentucky Derby runner up Hard Spun in the 1-mile LeComte (G3) at the Fairgrounds, turns back after dueling for the lead and weakening to finish sixth behind probable Preakness pacesetter Flying First Class in the 7 1/2- furlong Derby Trial. Trainer Dave Fawkes has Eibar Coa named to ride. 2 POP GOES THE TIGER is stretching out to 6 1/2 furlongs after bobbling at the start and finishing second here in the 6-furlong Naked Greed.
4-6-2
Race 9 -
3 FIVE STAR JOHN looks like the one to beat in the nightcap after surrendering a lead in the stretch to finish second vs. similar quality at the distance. 7 MR. CHOCOLATTE is turning back to 7 furlongs after showing speed and fading late in a pair of stamina enhancing route races vs. similar quality. 8 MY SISTER MERRY drops into a competitive situation after stalking the action and fading when facing $25K maidens in his local return at a mile. 9 ZION TRAIN drops to the bottom of the maiden scale after tracking the pace and fading in his local return vs. $16K maidens at 6 1/2 furlongs.
BEST BET: RACE 8 - FROSTY SECRET
LONG SHOT: RACE 4 - DEFINITELY TRUE
3-7-8-9
__________________
TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Today's Free Race: Calder for Monday May 21, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Calder
Calder - Race #7 - Post: 3:33pm
Choice Plays:
#5 HUSKER NATION (ML=6/1)
#3 MO'S POCOLINO (ML=6/1)
HUSKER NATION - Strong return on investment for this jock and conditioner twosome. MO'S POCOLINO - Trainer Hardy gave this colt a nice long blow out. That's a really good omen. Hardy brings him back again. I advocate you stick with this strong colt. This colt is rounding his way back into shape. Should run well today.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 THIS CAT'S BEST (ML=5/2), #7 SONG SONG BLUE (ML=7/2), #6 IT'S DOM'S TURN (ML=4/1)
THIS CAT'S BEST - I usually try to beat these types of chalk off the extended layoff. SONG SONG BLUE - If you keep playing these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be let down most of the time. IT'S DOM'S TURN - No favorable outcomes for this racer in a sprint contest over the last two months tells me that this gelding is in a very difficult situation
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - HUSKER NATION - When a thoroughbred has a superiority over the rest of the field in TrackMaster Power Rating, I make a bet.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 HUSKER NATION to win if we can get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5]
__________________
This is Jim Feist.
My free pick of the day is the game between (911) MIN Twins and (912) TEX Rangers. Take "(911) MIN Twins". Scott Baker came up from Triple AAA and gave the Twins just what they needed, shutting down the red-hot Brewers and resting the bullpen. The Twins got a pair of big upset wins at Milwaukee and now head to Texas. Starter Carlos Silva will try and keep the good karma going, and he's been one of their best pitchers with a 3.56 ERA. The same can't be said of sliding Texas, getting swept at Tampa Bay. Starter Vicente Padilla (1-6) has been awful with a 5.77 ERA in what is a tough place to pitch. Silva also pitches in a tough place (Metrodome), but he's mastered the craft of pitching, while Padilla hasn't (Padillas has more walks than Ks, 25 walks and 23 Ks). Play the Twins!
This is Dave Cokin.
My free pick of the day is the game between (905) MIL Brewers and (906) LA Dodgers. Take "(906) LA Dodgers". Cash in with Dave's strongest Monday baseball play at the lowest cost anywhere. "Brett Tomko is 7-1 lifetime against the Brewers, which is definitely an attention grabber. The flip side is the veteran righty has been in poor form and so are the Dodgers. But Milwaukee is also in a bit of a funk, and even with the Sunday win over the Twins, they're not looking like a go with team just now. The Dodgers need to get back on track after getting swept in Anaheim, and I'll give them a vote of confidence as they get back home for this game."
Michael Cannon Money Train - 50 Dimes on Detroit
Monday Plays..
50 Dime –
PISTONS ( Buy the ½ point if your line is -5 ½ )
Lay the points with the Pistons tonight in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference finals series against the Cavaliers.
Detroit has openly talked about how they have a plan in place for LeBron James. If it has anything to do with what the Nets did against him, the Cavs will be in trouble tonight.
The Nets were successful in doubling James and cutting off the lanes, forcing him either to settle for jump shots or passing it off to his teammates. Had the Nets been better on the offensive end, they would have been the ones gearing up for Detroit, not Cleveland.
Larry Hughes and company were brutal from the field when James fed them open looks and I expect the same thing to happen tonight against the Pistons.
Detroit is a better, deeper team than the Nets and if Cleveland thought it was tough going against New Jersey, wait until they get a load of the Pistons.
One thing the Pistons are capable of doing that the Nets weren’t is scoring consistently through all four quarters. They rely on Chauncey Billups setting up the offense and any or all five starters will contribute as scorers.
Detroit has been cashing the ticket regularly; going 21-9-3 ATS in its last 33 games overall.
I expect a full 48-minute effort from the Pistons tonight and I don’t see the supporting cast of the Cavaliers picking up the slack in scoring when LeBron is forced to dish it off.
Take the Pistons and lay the points as they grab the win and cover in Game 1.
5 Dime –
A’s (With Blanton and Contreras as listed pitchers)
Take the A’s as a road dog for the win in Chicago tonight.
Joe Blanton gets the nod for Oakland and he’s 4-1 with a 3.32 ERA in nine starts this year. He is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA over his last three starts, spanning 22 1-3 innings.
Jose Contreras will start for the White Sox and he hasn’t been getting any offensive support at all. The right-hander is just 1-2 over his last three starts despite a sparkling 1.25 ERA.
Look for Blanton to quiet the ChiSox bats again tonight, while the A’s muster just enough offense for the win.
Take the A’s as the road dog for the win.
Bonus Play: YANKEES (Watch the daily video in the 05-21 MONDAY Service Talk thread for analysis)
CAPPERS ACCESS
(Mon) NBA Pistons Cavs 6 Cavs
(Mon) MLB W. Sox A's 120 A's
Robert Ross
Washington has lost eight in a row on the road but Cincinnati has dropped nine of its last 12 at home. It returns after playing nine straight on the road while Washington hits the road after getting a rare win yesterday at home over Baltimore in the home dog role. WASHINGTON is 29-21 against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 7-17 against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season and 50-83 against the money line in home games with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games since 1997.
Take Washington!
Vernon Croy
NBA Cleveland vs. Detroit
Take Under
1/2 Unit, Take the Under 176.5 since both teams are very strong defensively and 16 of the last 19 meetings have gone under the posted total. Both teams have held their opponents to under an average of 88 ppg in the playoffs and this will be a feel out game for both teams. The O/U is 3-10 for Detorit in the conference finals the last 3 seasons and it will be 3-11 after Monday night. Have a great day! Vernon Croy
Mejia's Projected Score in the Pistons/Cavs Game Tonight
Detroit 87, Cleveland 84
Big Al - FREE PICKS
Astros (Sampson) and SF Giants (Lowry) 'OVER' the total
Also the Yankees
Maddux Sports Bonus Play - Yankees
GOLD KEY GAMES:
3 Units (Bonus Play): OVER 8 Runs Oakland / WSox
2 Units (Bonus Play): OVER 176 Pistons / Cavs
Silver Key (Bonus Play): Washington +1.5 Runs (Pick)
Gold Key (Paid Play): Cleveland Cavs +6.5
The Cavs under Head Coach Mike Brown have come through for Members in the post season, and now advance here to the Conference Finals. They have nothing to lose by playing hard against a Division rival they know as well as any team does. The Cavs have been successful Against The Spread as Dogs this season, and we go back with them here this evening. Positive trends include 30-22 ATS in Division Play, 27-15 ATS after three or more Unders ATS in a row, and 17-10 ATS as Dogs.
The Pistons enter the Eastern Conference Championship Series under their Head Coach Flip Saunders, and are odds-on to make it to the League Finals. They blew out the Bulls in four out of six events Straight Up and ATS, and look to continue their run with good play in this Series. The Pistons and Cavs have posted an Even Stephen 5-5 ATS record at Detroit lately, and this one might just be closer than expected. Negative trends include 18-27 ATS at Home, 6-14 ATS off a SU win as Dogs, and 33-37 ATS in Division Play.
The line overnited at Pistons -6 and figures to move up. We'll take those points and the Road Cavs to cover for us here tonight in a Gold Key Play
Paul Leiner:
5* White Sox -120
LT Lock:
Cleveland Cavs
EXECUTIVE:
LA DODGERS -110 over Milwaukee
THE WUNDERDOG:
Game: Seattle at Cleveland (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Seattle +205
Cleveland has been about the biggest surprise in baseball this season. They have been getting good pitching and timely hitting. There comes a time however, when the price to play exceeds the value to play. Tonight, looking at this game on the surface, it appears that perhaps there is again value on the Indians. But a closer look reveals that this line is not taking into account several factors and that there is in fact value in fading Cleveland. Seattle has been the best team in baseball vs. LHP this season. While they average 4.1 rpg vs. RHP, they get a full 2 runs-per-game more vs. lefties (6.1 rpg). It isn't just that they are scoring a lot vs. southpaws. It's the quality of the lefties they are beating that tells the story. Here are the left-handed pitchers the Mariners have crushed: Santana (ERA rank #13), DelaRosa (ERA rank #18), Danks (ERA rank #28), Pettitte (ERA rank #9), Robertson (ERA rank #19), Kennedy (ERA rank #5), Saunders (ERA rank #2). They have a 6-2 record!
vs. LHP, and in 7 of those games, they faced off vs the top 19 in ERA! C.C. Sabathia is a very good pitcher but lately he has fallen a bit. He has issued more hits than innings pitched over his last five starts and has allowed 6 HR's and an ERA of 4.51. Cha Seung Baek has been more than average. He broke in last season with 34.1 innings allowing just 26 hits, going 4-1 with an ERA of just 3.67. His numbers are quite similar to that this season if you take out his one bad start vs the Yankees. His ERA is 3.46, and the Mariners have won 4 of his 5 starts, making the Mariners now 9-2 in his career starts. We have made a lot of money backing the Tribe, and our view of them hasn't changed. But under the circumstances here tonight, the value truly resides with Seattle at this price
alatex superplay
under cleve- detroit.
-------------------------------------------
SEATTLE (Baek) +185 over CLEVELAND (Sabathia)
It's a tall order for any team to beat the Indians
at Jacobs Field these days, but the Mariners do
have a real shot in this one. This is one of four
games that need to be made up, after a series
between these two was wiped out by snow in
April. Seattle has had a great deal of success
vs. lefthanders (6-2, +$655 with 6.1 runs per
game) and C.C. Sabathia has been only so-so
in his most recent outings (4.30 ERA last two).
Cha-Seung Baek has led the Mariners to wins
in 4 of his 5 starts (+$485) and his ERA has
improved steadily (2.94 last two). The price
on this game is huge, so we're willing to take
a shot against the very formidable host.
Winning Points Online. 16-12 for the Playoffs, won yesterday with the Spurs.
-----------------------------------------------
OVER 177
Cleveland at Detroit
Since November 2004, 16 of the last 18 Cleveland-Detroit
games have gone Under the Total. Gosh, that's 88% Under,
which is one reason to be... OVER tonight!, with a line that
matches the lowest Total line of the prior 18. The only two
games that went OVER were the first two of their playoff
series last year. Naturally, at that time, people were reading
things like, 'hey, the last 10 meetings between the Cavs and
Pistons have gone Under, so bet the Under!' Joe Public is quite
the gullible guy, isn't he, willing to latch onto the first
available piece of info that happens to already be dead?
Just because last year's Games 1 and 2 went Over is no
reason for this one to go Over, too. But consider that both
sides are talking about hard fouls, and that the Pistons are
already planning on more minutes for Nazr Mohammed, and
that there is a physical history between Wallace of Detroit
and Ilgauskas of Cleveland. The referees figure to call it
tight to prevent the series from being over-the-top physical
before it begins. More fouls extend the game and force the
starters to the bench for more stretches, and put a dent in
each coach's best possible defensive combinations and
rotations. DETROIT, 95-91.
Billy Coleman
5*Pistons OVER
3*Pistons
3*Astros Over
3*Phil Under in Arena
__________________
poa
MLB
Mon May 21 7:05 pm
BOSTON +140 **
NY YANKEES -155
1* rating on BOSTON
BOTH WAKEFIELD/WANG
Mon May 21 7:05 pm
SEATTLE
CLEVELAND
9.0o-120 **
1* rating on OVER
BOTH BAEK/SABATHIA
Mon May 21 8:05 pm
MINNESOTA +110 **
TEXAS -120
1* rating on MINNESOTA
BOTH SILVA/PADILLA
Mon May 21 8:10 pm
OAKLAND +115 **
CHI SOX -125
1* rating on OAKLAND
BOTH BLANTON/CONTRERAS
Will Cover
3* under Pistons
4* Yanks(15-1 last 16 MLB picks)
FPBE Free Picks
Matty O'Shea - NYY -141 MLB
Ben Burns - CLV/DET under 177 NBA
Ethan Law - SEA +200 MLB
Bryan Leonard - LAD -115 LMB
Larry Ness - LAD -115 MLB
Jeff Bonds - LAD -115 MLB
Bobby Bo
Monday, May 21, 2007
Sport:MLB
Game: Milwaukee vs LA Dodgers
Prediction: LA Dodgers -110
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Monday 5/21 MLB San Francisco -145
Good Luck Today
Buzz Sports
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Prime Sports Picks
Arizona
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GAMEDAY
FREE WINNER TODAY
FREE MLB PICKS
Seattle @ Cleveland
Pick: UNDER 9
Time: 7:05 PM EST
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BRIAN JAMES
Monday, May 21st:
Texas Rangers -119
Mike Jacobs
Monday, May21, 2007
Sport: MLB
Game: A's vs Whitesox
Prediction:4* Whitsox ML
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Chad Jordan
Monday, May 21, 2007
Sport: MLB
Match up: Houston at San Francisco
Prediction: San Francisco Giants -135 W/ Lowry
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Donald Tran
Monday, May 21, 2007
Sport: MLB
Matchup: Minnesota at Texas
Prediction: Over 10 Runs (Silva vs. Padilla)
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Jennifer Barry
Monday, May 21 2007
Sport: MLB
Matchup: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers
Prediction: Over 8.5 Runs (Suppan vs. Tomko)
Totals 4 U
...
Top Play
...
Clev OVER 176-
Reg Plays
..
Ariz UNDER 8-
LAD UNDER 8-
NYY OVER 9-
Wsox OVER 8-
Mike Wynn
Bonus Play:
Los Angeles w/Tomko Pk Over Milwaukee
Razor Sharp
YOUR FREE WINNER FOR MONDAY:
NY YANKEES (Wang) -125 over Boston
#1 Sports
MONDAY'S FREE WINNER:
COLORADO ROCKIES + 170
Huddle Up Sports
Monday Free Winner
Milwaukee Supan pk
H.D.'s ActionLine
Bonus Play
Arizona -180 over Colorado
Buds Wiser Picks
YOUR COMPLIMENTARY WINNER FOR MONDAY:
HOUSTON
Winning Angle:
NBA
Play Cleveland (+6.5) over Detroit*
Game starts at 8:00 P.M. EST
(Top Play)
Cleveland has covered the spread in 23 of the last 33 games coming off an UNDER the total and they have also covered the spread in 17 of the last 25 games as a road underdog this year. Meanwhile, Detroit has lost 21 of the last 31 games against the spread coming off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Beat Your Bookie:
NBA Basketball for Monday
100* Play Cleveland (+6.5) over Detroit
(8:00 P.M. EST Tip-Off)
Detroit is 10-21 ATS coming off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons
Detroit is 17-26 ATS as a home favorite this year
Vegas Sports Experts
NBA Basketball Plays
Take Cleveland (+6.5) over Detroit
(Top Play)
Cleveland
• 23-10 ATS coming off 3 or more consecutive UNDER the totals
Larry Ness
Brewers at Dodgers
Prediction: Dodgers
The Dodgers were outscored 19-4 by the Angels in a three-game set in Anaheim, a sweep which concluded Sunday with a 4-1 Angel victory. The series ended the positive momentum from the Dodgers' 5-1 homestand which preceded it. This three-game series against the Brewers may be just what the Dodgers need as they have won five straight games against Milwaukee in Los Angeles. The Brewers are 9-22 at Dodger Stadium since joining the National League in 1998. Milwaukee, which is opening a six-game road trip, had dropped seven of nine before coming back from a four-run deficit to beat Minnesota 6-5 on Sunday and avoid a three-game sweep. That nine-game slide began with a 2-5 road swing. The Brewers are 17-7 at home, but only 10-10 away from Miller Park. Jeff Suppan goes for Milwaukee tonight and he's lost two straight (5.54 ERA) after logging a five-game winning streak. Suppan, who is 3-4 with a 3.78 ERA in eight career starts against the Dodgers, gave up two runs in seven innings of a 5-4 home loss to them on April 4. Los Angeles will counter with Brett Tomko (1-4, 5.97), who was pounded for eight runs and nine hits in just 2.1 innings of last Monday's 8-4 loss to St. Louis. He was coming off his first win of the season - a 5-3 victory at Florida in which he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning. Tomko is 0-2 with a 7.80 ERA in four outings, including three starts, at Dodger Stadium this season. However, he has pitched well against the Brewers, going 7-1 with a 3.38 ERA in 13 career appearances, including 11 starts. Take the Dodgers.
Lenny Del Genio
Rockies at Diamondbacks
Prediction: Rockies
We're catching a huge price on Colorado in this one and here's why it's worth the risk. Arizona's Brandon Webb is 3-1 with a 2.20 ERA versus the rest of MLB in 2007 but 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA in three starts this year versus the Rockies (including a 5-3 loss at Coors last Wednesday). The right-hander is also looking for his first win at Chase Field this season, where he is 0-2 with a 5.14 ERA in three outings. Aaron Cook (3-1, 4.40) will start for Colorado as he tries to beat Arizona for the second straight start and win his fourth straight decision overall. The right-hander allowed three runs and five hits in six innings while out-pitching Webb last Wednesday. The D-Backs haven't been hitting that well this year. And despite scoring 19 runs while taking two of three games from the Pirates over the weekend, Arizona hadn't scored more than five in any of its previous 15 contests. Take the big price with Cook and Colorado.
EXECUTIVE
LA DODGERS -110 over Milwaukee
LT Lock
CLEVELAND CAVS
Paul Leiner
5* White Sox -120
Gold Key
(Paid Play): Cleveland Cavs +6.5
The Wunderdog
Game: Seattle at Cleveland (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Seattle +205
Cleveland has been about the biggest surprise in baseball this season. They have been getting good pitching and timely hitting. There comes a time however, when the price to play exceeds the value to play. Tonight, looking at this game on the surface, it appears that perhaps there is again value on the Indians. But a closer look reveals that this line is not taking into account several factors and that there is in fact value in fading Cleveland. Seattle has been the best team in baseball vs. LHP this season. While they average 4.1 rpg vs. RHP, they get a full 2 runs-per-game more vs. lefties (6.1 rpg). It isn't just that they are scoring a lot vs. southpaws. It's the quality of the lefties they are beating that tells the story. Here are the left-handed pitchers the Mariners have crushed: Santana (ERA rank #13), DelaRosa (ERA rank #18), Danks (ERA rank #28), Pettitte (ERA rank #9), Robertson (ERA rank #19), Kennedy (ERA rank #5), Saunders (ERA rank #2). They have a 6-2 record!
vs. LHP, and in 7 of those games, they faced off vs the top 19 in ERA! C.C. Sabathia is a very good pitcher but lately he has fallen a bit. He has issued more hits than innings pitched over his last five starts and has allowed 6 HR's and an ERA of 4.51. Cha Seung Baek has been more than average. He broke in last season with 34.1 innings allowing just 26 hits, going 4-1 with an ERA of just 3.67. His numbers are quite similar to that this season if you take out his one bad start vs the Yankees. His ERA is 3.46, and the Mariners have won 4 of his 5 starts, making the Mariners now 9-2 in his career starts. We have made a lot of money backing the Tribe, and our view of them hasn't changed. But under the circumstances here tonight, the value truly resides with Seattle at this price.
Dave Cokin
Take "(906) LA Dodgers
"Brett Tomko is 7-1 lifetime against the Brewers, which is definitely an attention grabber. The flip side is the veteran righty has been in poor form and so are the Dodgers. But Milwaukee is also in a bit of a funk, and even with the Sunday win over the Twins, they're not looking like a go with team just now. The Dodgers need to get back on track after getting swept in Anaheim, and I'll give them a vote of confidence as they get back home for this game."
Hondo Likes the As Tonight
The Hondo Kiss of Death worked its black magic on the Twins yesterday, putting a halt to their inter league winning streak at 12. Fortunately for Mr. Aitch, the Chisox were able to overcome the HKOD, so the earnings increased to 175 ciscos. Tonight, since Danks is for the memories, he suggests a Blan ton play in Chicago - 10 units on the A's.
Michael Cannon
Money Train
50 Dime
PISTONS
5 Dime
A’s
Mighty ! Quinn
Minnesota Twins
NBA:Cleveland at Detroit 8:00 pm EDT Mon May 21, 2007
Cleveland at Detroit
Game Info: 8:00 pm EDT Mon May 21, 2007
DETROIT (AP) -- When threatened, the Detroit Pistons are at their best.
Too much cockiness usually doesn't work for the Pistons because it lulls them into a false sense of security, leading to 1-on-1 moves and lackluster effort on defense and the glass.
Detroit plays up to its vast potential by sharing the ball, defending with passion and rebounding aggressively.
The Pistons know they have to stick to that script in the conference finals -- starting Monday night at home -- because LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers are good enough to beat them in a matchup of the East's top-seeded teams.
Detroit doubted that entering the conference semifinals last year. It almost cost the Pistons after winning the first two games.
Cleveland won three straight and had the Pistons on the brink of elimination -- coming off two straight trips to the NBA finals -- before they responded to adversity again by winning the last two games.
"What helps us is what they did to us last year," Detroit coach Flip Saunders said. "That's a positive for us. They had us down, and we came back and knew we had to win Game 6 to get to Game 7.
"That's why this year, except for the one game when we got beat in overtime, we came out focused knowing if we didn't, they would beat us."
Detroit beat the Cavs in three of four games during the regular season, with the lone loss coming in overtime.
James said it doesn't matter that the Pistons view Cleveland as more of a challenge than they did a year ago.
"It's not about trying to win somebody's respect," he said. "It's about trying to win a series."
The Cavs are more confident about their chances to advance to the NBA finals -- for the first time since the franchise was born in 1970 -- than they were a year ago.
"We feel like we can do it," reserve point guard Eric Snow said. "We just have to go out and get it done."
James is better and his teammates are, too, perhaps because the 22-year-old star seems to rely on them more on the court in his fourth NBA season and second postseason.
"Coming in, he thought he had to do so much," Saunders said. "He kept the ball so much. Now, he makes quicker decisions and he trusts his teammates more."
Larry Hughes is much healthier than he was last season and has helped Cleveland by being a scoring option from the point guard position. Sasha Pavlovic, a non-factor a year ago, is contributing.
The Cavs are deeper, too, with players like high-energy forward Anderson Varejao a part of a nine-man rotation.
"The difference between them a year ago or two years ago and this year, is that they're not a one-man team," Saunders said. "They have more people they can go to, they play their bench more and they always seem to have someone who comes up big for them."
James acknowledged his teammates played a big role in lifting Cleveland to the conference finals for the first time since 1992.
"Without them this definitely wouldn't be possible," he said. "We've been talking about trying to make a run, we've been chanting, `championship' all year and now we've made it closer to what we want to accomplish."
The Pistons are fueled by the disappointments that have followed their 2004 title, the third in franchise history. Detroit had a chance to repeat in Game 7 at San Antonio.
Last year, Detroit lost to the eventual champion Miami Heat in the conference finals after the Cavs added to a season-long grind for a team that won an NBA-high and franchise-record 64 games.
"Going seven games with them, it took a lot out of us. You have to give them credit," reserve guard Lindsey Hunter said of Cleveland's effort in the seven-game conference semifinals. "It probably cost us making it back to the finals."
The Pistons are in the conference finals for the fifth straight year, a streak matched just four other times in 20-plus years, after beating Chicago in six games and opening the postseason with a sweep over Orlando.
The Cavs began the postseason by sweeping seventh-seeded Washington and eliminating sixth-seeded New Jersey in six games.
"They're a team to be reckoned with now," Hunter said. "They've made it this far and all of the elite teams are still playing, so you have to consider them elite. We have to really buckle down and be focused.
"Tested or not, they've made it so they deserve to be here."
Monday Horse Racing Spot Picks
SPOT PLAYS
For Monday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Calder Race Course (3rd) Honkeytonkville, 4-1
(5th) Dane K., 5-1
Delaware Park (6th) Midnight Duel, 6-1
(9th) Aim South, 3-1
Finger Lakes (4th) Adaptation, 5-1
(9th) Time Stands Still, 6-1
Fort Erie (4th) Cent T Mint, 7-2
(7th) New Girlfriend, 4-1
Great Lakes Downs (1st) Game Chip, 7-2
(2nd) High Wire Henry, 3-1
Hastings Park (4th) Tango Mango, 4-1
(9th) Krone, 7-2
Indiana Downs (7th) Shamethemoon, 7-2
(8th) Ma Moo's Spitfire, 6-1
Mountaineer (1st) Honor Grades Jr., 5-1
(10th) Karakorum Keepsake, 5-1
Philadelphia Park (1st) Radiant Gem, 3-1
(2nd) Dynacrown, 3-1
Prairie Meadows (4th) Premium Option, 7-2
(8th) Sinister Sister, 4-1
Suffolk Downs (3rd) Sun Stroke, 7-2
(9th) Sing Me Back Home, 6-1
Woodbine (5th) Distinguished Lady, 10-1
(10th) Callwood Dancer (Ire), 4-1
CALDER
Analysis:: by Ron Nicoletti
12:50PM
Race 1 -
2 BIG WAVE DAVE should break on top and notch the maiden win after setting the pace and weakening late vs. better in a pair of local sprints. Trainer Fred Warren has Jose Rivera II atop Big Dave. 1 ONEEYEDPARROT, 3 for 6 in the money at the distance, is turning back after stalking the pace and weakening to finish fourth in consecutive starts at Tampa. 7-pound apprentice David Cardoso hops aboard. 6 PUBLIC OPINION can close the gap on Big Wave Dave after dueling for lead from Post 10 and fading to finish fifth - beaten 6 1/4 lengths at 85-1.
2-1-6
Race 2 -
1 NINTH OF JULY makes her 4-year-old debut the first start since hitting the board in three consecutive 5-furlong turf sprints here last fall (3-0-2-1). Trainer Phil Gleaves has the daughter of Sea Salute training forwardly for this assignment. 6 CAROLINA TRIPPER finds a nice spot to step up the competition after setting the pace and finishing second in her Gulfstream turf finale vs. $25K maidens. Trainer Steve Dwoskin reunites the daughter of Trippi with jockey Elvis Trujillo. 3 DIMESTORE DOLLY is stepping up the competition after dueling for the lead and getting beat a head on the main track vs. $12.5K maidens last out. Trainer Kirk Ziadie, 19% with the dirt-to-turf move, has leading apprentice Sally Mitchellhill atop the daughter of Halos and Horns.
1-6-3
Race 3 -
5 MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN, who broke her maiden here at this distance on Dec. 10, stretches out after stalking the pace and fading when facing similar in her local return at a mile. 4 GERARDA MOON is stretching out to a mile & 70 yards after losing her best chance when she was squeezed back at the start vs. $10K "two-lifetime" claimers at 6 1/2 furlongs. 7 HONKEYTONKVILLE will try $16K "two-lifetime" claimers in the southern part of the state after posting by far the best last-race speed figure (65) when drawing clear, at 17-1, to defeat $8K maidens at Tampa. Trainer Dominique Gombaud-Saintonge has jockey Pedro Monterrey Jr. going for 2 in a row.
5-4-7
Race 4 -
3 PLACIDO added fodder to the horse-for-course theory when he returned to notch his seventh victory from 18 starts on the Calder sod. The 10-time winner at the distance is reunited with jockey Abel Castellano Jr. 6 ZAFIN is hoping to find a little more for the stretch drive after gaining late to finish second behind Placido last out. 5 QUARTIER BLANC is shortening up to 5 furlongs after using his speed to win 2 of 5 route races on the lawn. Trainer Pablo Andrade has Elvis Trujillo handling the classic turnback move. 7 LUCKY TO COPE is hoping for a little luck in the early going after recovering from a poor start, in which he broke 10th and last, to finish fourth behind Placido last out.
3-6-5-7
Race 5 -
1 GRENADE HALL, who broke his maiden here at a mile in 2005, stretches out after dueling throughout and finishing a willing third vs. similar in his local return at 7 furlongs. Note that trainer Bill White has a strong 27% win average with horses stretching out in distance. 5 DANE K. is stretching out slightly after rallying to finish a good second vs. similar in his local return at a mile & 70 yards. Note that trainer David Fawkes has a 17% win average with horses making the second start after a 45-180 day layoff. 6 EIGHT MILE ROCK will try a mile and a sixteenth after rallying to finish third behind Dane K, as the favorite, last out. Trainer Milt Wolfson tabs 7-pound apprentice Sally Mitchellhill to ride as leading jock Manoel Cruz moves to 10 COCHRAN. The gelding faces winners after drawing clear to break his maiden at the distance by 2 1/2 lengths.
1-5-6-10
Race 6 -
8 KING ANTHONY is stretching out to a mile & 70 yards after responding to a drop in competition with an improved but troubled (bothered stretch) second place finish vs. this caliber of competition at 6 1/2 furlongs. 6 DIXIE PIPE, who dwelt at the start when finishing second vs. similar at Tampa, and hesitated at the start prior to finishing second here last out, just needs to get away from the gate in a timely fashion to shed the maiden tag. 5 DOC TOUR drops to the bottom after hitting the board vs. better at Gulfstream and Tampa before the 7-week freshening. 4 ROAD TO DAMASCUS will be outfitted with blinkers after recovering from a slow start to finish third vs. similar last out. Trainer Fred Warren claimed him last out and tabs Leroy Nelson to ride.
8-6-5-4
Race 7 -
5 HUSKER NATION gets some class relief after losing all chance when he broke in the air vs. $16K optional claimers in his local return at the distance. Trainer Steve Standridge lightens the load with apprentice Sally Mitchellhill. 7 SONG SONG BLUE is stretching out to three-quarters of a mile after dueling for the lead and finishing second in his local returns vs. similar at 5 1/2 furlongs. Trainer Luis Olivares has 10-pound bug Luis Colon named to ride. 1 THIS CAT'S BEST drops into this $25K "two-lifetime" claimer in the first start since he drew clear to defeat $80K maidens at Churchill last June. Shawn Musgrave takes over the training duties and has jockey Ariel Smith handling the colt's first start in 11-plus months.
5-7-1
Race 8 -
4 FROSTY SECRET is turning back to 6 1/2 furlongs after a sharp performance in the 1-mile Withers (G3) in which he attended the pace and finished third behind Divine Park and Preakness participant C P West. 6 IZZIE'S HALO, whose biggest outing thus far was a second place finish behind Kentucky Derby runner up Hard Spun in the 1-mile LeComte (G3) at the Fairgrounds, turns back after dueling for the lead and weakening to finish sixth behind probable Preakness pacesetter Flying First Class in the 7 1/2- furlong Derby Trial. Trainer Dave Fawkes has Eibar Coa named to ride. 2 POP GOES THE TIGER is stretching out to 6 1/2 furlongs after bobbling at the start and finishing second here in the 6-furlong Naked Greed.
4-6-2
Race 9 -
3 FIVE STAR JOHN looks like the one to beat in the nightcap after surrendering a lead in the stretch to finish second vs. similar quality at the distance. 7 MR. CHOCOLATTE is turning back to 7 furlongs after showing speed and fading late in a pair of stamina enhancing route races vs. similar quality. 8 MY SISTER MERRY drops into a competitive situation after stalking the action and fading when facing $25K maidens in his local return at a mile. 9 ZION TRAIN drops to the bottom of the maiden scale after tracking the pace and fading in his local return vs. $16K maidens at 6 1/2 furlongs.
BEST BET: RACE 8 - FROSTY SECRET
LONG SHOT: RACE 4 - DEFINITELY TRUE
3-7-8-9
__________________
TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Today's Free Race: Calder for Monday May 21, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Calder
Calder - Race #7 - Post: 3:33pm
Choice Plays:
#5 HUSKER NATION (ML=6/1)
#3 MO'S POCOLINO (ML=6/1)
HUSKER NATION - Strong return on investment for this jock and conditioner twosome. MO'S POCOLINO - Trainer Hardy gave this colt a nice long blow out. That's a really good omen. Hardy brings him back again. I advocate you stick with this strong colt. This colt is rounding his way back into shape. Should run well today.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 THIS CAT'S BEST (ML=5/2), #7 SONG SONG BLUE (ML=7/2), #6 IT'S DOM'S TURN (ML=4/1)
THIS CAT'S BEST - I usually try to beat these types of chalk off the extended layoff. SONG SONG BLUE - If you keep playing these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be let down most of the time. IT'S DOM'S TURN - No favorable outcomes for this racer in a sprint contest over the last two months tells me that this gelding is in a very difficult situation
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - HUSKER NATION - When a thoroughbred has a superiority over the rest of the field in TrackMaster Power Rating, I make a bet.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 HUSKER NATION to win if we can get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5]
__________________
This is Jim Feist.
My free pick of the day is the game between (911) MIN Twins and (912) TEX Rangers. Take "(911) MIN Twins". Scott Baker came up from Triple AAA and gave the Twins just what they needed, shutting down the red-hot Brewers and resting the bullpen. The Twins got a pair of big upset wins at Milwaukee and now head to Texas. Starter Carlos Silva will try and keep the good karma going, and he's been one of their best pitchers with a 3.56 ERA. The same can't be said of sliding Texas, getting swept at Tampa Bay. Starter Vicente Padilla (1-6) has been awful with a 5.77 ERA in what is a tough place to pitch. Silva also pitches in a tough place (Metrodome), but he's mastered the craft of pitching, while Padilla hasn't (Padillas has more walks than Ks, 25 walks and 23 Ks). Play the Twins!
This is Dave Cokin.
My free pick of the day is the game between (905) MIL Brewers and (906) LA Dodgers. Take "(906) LA Dodgers". Cash in with Dave's strongest Monday baseball play at the lowest cost anywhere. "Brett Tomko is 7-1 lifetime against the Brewers, which is definitely an attention grabber. The flip side is the veteran righty has been in poor form and so are the Dodgers. But Milwaukee is also in a bit of a funk, and even with the Sunday win over the Twins, they're not looking like a go with team just now. The Dodgers need to get back on track after getting swept in Anaheim, and I'll give them a vote of confidence as they get back home for this game."
Michael Cannon Money Train - 50 Dimes on Detroit
Monday Plays..
50 Dime –
PISTONS ( Buy the ½ point if your line is -5 ½ )
Lay the points with the Pistons tonight in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference finals series against the Cavaliers.
Detroit has openly talked about how they have a plan in place for LeBron James. If it has anything to do with what the Nets did against him, the Cavs will be in trouble tonight.
The Nets were successful in doubling James and cutting off the lanes, forcing him either to settle for jump shots or passing it off to his teammates. Had the Nets been better on the offensive end, they would have been the ones gearing up for Detroit, not Cleveland.
Larry Hughes and company were brutal from the field when James fed them open looks and I expect the same thing to happen tonight against the Pistons.
Detroit is a better, deeper team than the Nets and if Cleveland thought it was tough going against New Jersey, wait until they get a load of the Pistons.
One thing the Pistons are capable of doing that the Nets weren’t is scoring consistently through all four quarters. They rely on Chauncey Billups setting up the offense and any or all five starters will contribute as scorers.
Detroit has been cashing the ticket regularly; going 21-9-3 ATS in its last 33 games overall.
I expect a full 48-minute effort from the Pistons tonight and I don’t see the supporting cast of the Cavaliers picking up the slack in scoring when LeBron is forced to dish it off.
Take the Pistons and lay the points as they grab the win and cover in Game 1.
5 Dime –
A’s (With Blanton and Contreras as listed pitchers)
Take the A’s as a road dog for the win in Chicago tonight.
Joe Blanton gets the nod for Oakland and he’s 4-1 with a 3.32 ERA in nine starts this year. He is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA over his last three starts, spanning 22 1-3 innings.
Jose Contreras will start for the White Sox and he hasn’t been getting any offensive support at all. The right-hander is just 1-2 over his last three starts despite a sparkling 1.25 ERA.
Look for Blanton to quiet the ChiSox bats again tonight, while the A’s muster just enough offense for the win.
Take the A’s as the road dog for the win.
Bonus Play: YANKEES (Watch the daily video in the 05-21 MONDAY Service Talk thread for analysis)
CAPPERS ACCESS
(Mon) NBA Pistons Cavs 6 Cavs
(Mon) MLB W. Sox A's 120 A's
Robert Ross
Washington has lost eight in a row on the road but Cincinnati has dropped nine of its last 12 at home. It returns after playing nine straight on the road while Washington hits the road after getting a rare win yesterday at home over Baltimore in the home dog role. WASHINGTON is 29-21 against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 7-17 against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season and 50-83 against the money line in home games with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games since 1997.
Take Washington!
Vernon Croy
NBA Cleveland vs. Detroit
Take Under
1/2 Unit, Take the Under 176.5 since both teams are very strong defensively and 16 of the last 19 meetings have gone under the posted total. Both teams have held their opponents to under an average of 88 ppg in the playoffs and this will be a feel out game for both teams. The O/U is 3-10 for Detorit in the conference finals the last 3 seasons and it will be 3-11 after Monday night. Have a great day! Vernon Croy
Mejia's Projected Score in the Pistons/Cavs Game Tonight
Detroit 87, Cleveland 84
Big Al - FREE PICKS
Astros (Sampson) and SF Giants (Lowry) 'OVER' the total
Also the Yankees
Maddux Sports Bonus Play - Yankees
GOLD KEY GAMES:
3 Units (Bonus Play): OVER 8 Runs Oakland / WSox
2 Units (Bonus Play): OVER 176 Pistons / Cavs
Silver Key (Bonus Play): Washington +1.5 Runs (Pick)
Gold Key (Paid Play): Cleveland Cavs +6.5
The Cavs under Head Coach Mike Brown have come through for Members in the post season, and now advance here to the Conference Finals. They have nothing to lose by playing hard against a Division rival they know as well as any team does. The Cavs have been successful Against The Spread as Dogs this season, and we go back with them here this evening. Positive trends include 30-22 ATS in Division Play, 27-15 ATS after three or more Unders ATS in a row, and 17-10 ATS as Dogs.
The Pistons enter the Eastern Conference Championship Series under their Head Coach Flip Saunders, and are odds-on to make it to the League Finals. They blew out the Bulls in four out of six events Straight Up and ATS, and look to continue their run with good play in this Series. The Pistons and Cavs have posted an Even Stephen 5-5 ATS record at Detroit lately, and this one might just be closer than expected. Negative trends include 18-27 ATS at Home, 6-14 ATS off a SU win as Dogs, and 33-37 ATS in Division Play.
The line overnited at Pistons -6 and figures to move up. We'll take those points and the Road Cavs to cover for us here tonight in a Gold Key Play
Paul Leiner:
5* White Sox -120
LT Lock:
Cleveland Cavs
EXECUTIVE:
LA DODGERS -110 over Milwaukee
THE WUNDERDOG:
Game: Seattle at Cleveland (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Seattle +205
Cleveland has been about the biggest surprise in baseball this season. They have been getting good pitching and timely hitting. There comes a time however, when the price to play exceeds the value to play. Tonight, looking at this game on the surface, it appears that perhaps there is again value on the Indians. But a closer look reveals that this line is not taking into account several factors and that there is in fact value in fading Cleveland. Seattle has been the best team in baseball vs. LHP this season. While they average 4.1 rpg vs. RHP, they get a full 2 runs-per-game more vs. lefties (6.1 rpg). It isn't just that they are scoring a lot vs. southpaws. It's the quality of the lefties they are beating that tells the story. Here are the left-handed pitchers the Mariners have crushed: Santana (ERA rank #13), DelaRosa (ERA rank #18), Danks (ERA rank #28), Pettitte (ERA rank #9), Robertson (ERA rank #19), Kennedy (ERA rank #5), Saunders (ERA rank #2). They have a 6-2 record!
vs. LHP, and in 7 of those games, they faced off vs the top 19 in ERA! C.C. Sabathia is a very good pitcher but lately he has fallen a bit. He has issued more hits than innings pitched over his last five starts and has allowed 6 HR's and an ERA of 4.51. Cha Seung Baek has been more than average. He broke in last season with 34.1 innings allowing just 26 hits, going 4-1 with an ERA of just 3.67. His numbers are quite similar to that this season if you take out his one bad start vs the Yankees. His ERA is 3.46, and the Mariners have won 4 of his 5 starts, making the Mariners now 9-2 in his career starts. We have made a lot of money backing the Tribe, and our view of them hasn't changed. But under the circumstances here tonight, the value truly resides with Seattle at this price
alatex superplay
under cleve- detroit.
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SEATTLE (Baek) +185 over CLEVELAND (Sabathia)
It's a tall order for any team to beat the Indians
at Jacobs Field these days, but the Mariners do
have a real shot in this one. This is one of four
games that need to be made up, after a series
between these two was wiped out by snow in
April. Seattle has had a great deal of success
vs. lefthanders (6-2, +$655 with 6.1 runs per
game) and C.C. Sabathia has been only so-so
in his most recent outings (4.30 ERA last two).
Cha-Seung Baek has led the Mariners to wins
in 4 of his 5 starts (+$485) and his ERA has
improved steadily (2.94 last two). The price
on this game is huge, so we're willing to take
a shot against the very formidable host.
Winning Points Online. 16-12 for the Playoffs, won yesterday with the Spurs.
-----------------------------------------------
OVER 177
Cleveland at Detroit
Since November 2004, 16 of the last 18 Cleveland-Detroit
games have gone Under the Total. Gosh, that's 88% Under,
which is one reason to be... OVER tonight!, with a line that
matches the lowest Total line of the prior 18. The only two
games that went OVER were the first two of their playoff
series last year. Naturally, at that time, people were reading
things like, 'hey, the last 10 meetings between the Cavs and
Pistons have gone Under, so bet the Under!' Joe Public is quite
the gullible guy, isn't he, willing to latch onto the first
available piece of info that happens to already be dead?
Just because last year's Games 1 and 2 went Over is no
reason for this one to go Over, too. But consider that both
sides are talking about hard fouls, and that the Pistons are
already planning on more minutes for Nazr Mohammed, and
that there is a physical history between Wallace of Detroit
and Ilgauskas of Cleveland. The referees figure to call it
tight to prevent the series from being over-the-top physical
before it begins. More fouls extend the game and force the
starters to the bench for more stretches, and put a dent in
each coach's best possible defensive combinations and
rotations. DETROIT, 95-91.
Billy Coleman
5*Pistons OVER
3*Pistons
3*Astros Over
3*Phil Under in Arena
__________________
poa
MLB
Mon May 21 7:05 pm
BOSTON +140 **
NY YANKEES -155
1* rating on BOSTON
BOTH WAKEFIELD/WANG
Mon May 21 7:05 pm
SEATTLE
CLEVELAND
9.0o-120 **
1* rating on OVER
BOTH BAEK/SABATHIA
Mon May 21 8:05 pm
MINNESOTA +110 **
TEXAS -120
1* rating on MINNESOTA
BOTH SILVA/PADILLA
Mon May 21 8:10 pm
OAKLAND +115 **
CHI SOX -125
1* rating on OAKLAND
BOTH BLANTON/CONTRERAS
Will Cover
3* under Pistons
4* Yanks(15-1 last 16 MLB picks)
FPBE Free Picks
Matty O'Shea - NYY -141 MLB
Ben Burns - CLV/DET under 177 NBA
Ethan Law - SEA +200 MLB
Bryan Leonard - LAD -115 LMB
Larry Ness - LAD -115 MLB
Jeff Bonds - LAD -115 MLB
Bobby Bo
Monday, May 21, 2007
Sport:MLB
Game: Milwaukee vs LA Dodgers
Prediction: LA Dodgers -110
======================================== =============
Monday 5/21 MLB San Francisco -145
Good Luck Today
Buzz Sports
======================================== =================
Prime Sports Picks
Arizona
======================================== ==============
GAMEDAY
FREE WINNER TODAY
FREE MLB PICKS
Seattle @ Cleveland
Pick: UNDER 9
Time: 7:05 PM EST
======================================== ===============
BRIAN JAMES
Monday, May 21st:
Texas Rangers -119
Mike Jacobs
Monday, May21, 2007
Sport: MLB
Game: A's vs Whitesox
Prediction:4* Whitsox ML
======================================== ==============
Chad Jordan
Monday, May 21, 2007
Sport: MLB
Match up: Houston at San Francisco
Prediction: San Francisco Giants -135 W/ Lowry
======================================== ==============
Donald Tran
Monday, May 21, 2007
Sport: MLB
Matchup: Minnesota at Texas
Prediction: Over 10 Runs (Silva vs. Padilla)
======================================== ===============
Jennifer Barry
Monday, May 21 2007
Sport: MLB
Matchup: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers
Prediction: Over 8.5 Runs (Suppan vs. Tomko)
Totals 4 U
...
Top Play
...
Clev OVER 176-
Reg Plays
..
Ariz UNDER 8-
LAD UNDER 8-
NYY OVER 9-
Wsox OVER 8-
Mike Wynn
Bonus Play:
Los Angeles w/Tomko Pk Over Milwaukee
Razor Sharp
YOUR FREE WINNER FOR MONDAY:
NY YANKEES (Wang) -125 over Boston
#1 Sports
MONDAY'S FREE WINNER:
COLORADO ROCKIES + 170
Huddle Up Sports
Monday Free Winner
Milwaukee Supan pk
H.D.'s ActionLine
Bonus Play
Arizona -180 over Colorado
Buds Wiser Picks
YOUR COMPLIMENTARY WINNER FOR MONDAY:
HOUSTON
Winning Angle:
NBA
Play Cleveland (+6.5) over Detroit*
Game starts at 8:00 P.M. EST
(Top Play)
Cleveland has covered the spread in 23 of the last 33 games coming off an UNDER the total and they have also covered the spread in 17 of the last 25 games as a road underdog this year. Meanwhile, Detroit has lost 21 of the last 31 games against the spread coming off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Beat Your Bookie:
NBA Basketball for Monday
100* Play Cleveland (+6.5) over Detroit
(8:00 P.M. EST Tip-Off)
Detroit is 10-21 ATS coming off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons
Detroit is 17-26 ATS as a home favorite this year
Vegas Sports Experts
NBA Basketball Plays
Take Cleveland (+6.5) over Detroit
(Top Play)
Cleveland
• 23-10 ATS coming off 3 or more consecutive UNDER the totals
