Jibba's Tuesday MLB

Money Lines:

Favorites: 116-63 for +25.49 units
Underdogs: 35-37 for +7.63 units
Total: 151-100 for for +33.12 units

Run Lines: 5-6 for -0.04 units

Parlays: 0-2 for -2.97 units

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I'm 2-4 on the night so far and down 2.04 units. Hopefully the Brewers and Giants can hold on to give me a just above break even night. Like some plays for tomorrow a lot. May add to them in the morning, but going to keep everything to 1 unit plays until I can go over it all again tomorrow. Looking like a lot of favorites tomorrow, after taking mostly dogs today.

Philadelphia -131: The Phillies are a hot team, coming in with an 8-3 record over their last 11. They haven't shown to be all that dangerous on the road this year, but that's becoming irrelevant when Hamels pitches. The Phillies have won his last 4 starts and look to build on that against Scott Olsen and the Marlins tomorrow. I don't mean to stress this stat too much, but this is yet another team that has been winning games they should be winning. They're 16-5 in their last 21 games as a favorite.

The Phillies have hit Olsen pretty hard in his career, and I think the Phillies will be up for this divisional matchup. Hamels faced this Marlins team 3 times last year, and looked solid in all 3. In 18 innings, Hamels allowed only 6 ERs while striking out 20. He's coming off an extremely solid performance against another young offense in the Brewers. And I'm happy to ride him at this price. 1.31 units to win 1.

NY Mets -124: This may very well be a very public play, but I'll take these odds on one of the best offenses and one of the best roads team in baseball against Kyle Davies any day. The Braves looked ugly against the Nats and didn't play particularly well over the weekend in Boston either. While they are a solid young team, they are also prone for streaks, both winning and losing. Kyle Davies is not the pitcher you want on the mound while trying to kick a losing stretch. He allows far too many baserunners to be successful against this disciplined Mets offense in my opinion. He's been able to cut down on his walks lately, but only against weaker offenses like Washington and Pittsburgh.

The Mets, as I said above, are the most dangerous road team in baseball right now. And they're consistently winning games they should be winning, going 9-3 in their last 12 games as a favorite. Sosa has been basically unhittable in his first 3 appearances (9 hits and 5 ERs in 20 innings). While it's not realistic to expect him to keep this up for much longer, I think there's plenty of value on him tomorrow. 1.24 units to win 1.

Baltimore -105: AJ Burnett is another hot pitcher in the public eye. But he is a completely different pitcher on the road. At home this year Burnett is 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and a .184 BAA. On the road, however, he is 1-3 with a 5.65 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP, and a .250 BAA. I'm pretty sure we'll see the latter in Camden Yards tomorrow. Toronto also comes into this game having lost 8 of their last 9 road games, while Baltimore finally returns home to where they are 12-8 this year, and 5-2 over their last 7.

Cabrera is still a bit of an unknown in the public's eye. He's put up solid starts this year, but doesn't wow people like Burnett can. But he is also much less likely to stink up the joint, having given up more than 3 ERs only 3 times in 9 starts. He shut down this same Toronto offense on the road just 4 days ago, putting up 8 innings while only allowing 3 hits and 2 ERs. He revered back to his problem with walks, but it's something that he is consistently working on and should be able to get through. 1.05 units to win 1.

Tampa Bay -115: Despite Washburn's success in the past against the D-Rays, I have to back Kazmir at home at this number. Tampa's offense is nothing like the one Washburn has dominated in the past (9-2, 2.61 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, .248 BAA). And Kazmir has been even more dominant in his 2 starts against Seattle (plus 1 relief appearance), going 2-0 in 18.1 innings with a 1.47 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a .156 BAA to go along with 18 Ks. Seattle has not been solid on the road this year, and I'm still not a believer that Washburn isn't still the pitcher that went 2-9 on the road last year in 16 starts with a 5.88 ERA, a 1.48 BAA, and a .291 BAA. I think Seattle goes back to their losing ways out on the road. 1.15 units to win 1.

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Currently have leans on Houston, Cleveland, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh. Still looking at a few games as well. BOL to everyone on their plays.

The Rockies bullpen blew it.

How about the Nats +153?

BOL tomorrow...love the Rays and Phills tomoorrow.

Good luck.

I love the Orioles.

Tampa Bay seems like the right side but its bullpen has screwed me way too many times.

im on all 4 of those tomorrow jibba.... good luck to both of us

tailing on tampa and philly
best of luck

Nice writeups. It is much appreciated. Best of luck!

Good to have some company on these plays, especially from some solid posters. Thanks guys and BOL. Should be back with some more plays later this morning. Getting nervous because I like today's matchups so much.

Also, just want to note that I took Cleveland and San Diego today, both at -150. These lines are not readily available and I just kind of lucked into them on Matchbook. If they become available I will probably post them as official plays. Both are actually getting somewhat close though, and I see them both at -158 to -160 on MB right now. BOL today guys.

Updated record including the final 2 plays from last night:

Money Lines:

Favorites: 118-63 for +27.49 units
Underdogs: 35-37 for +7.63 units
Total: 153-100 for for +35.12 units

Run Lines: 5-6 for -0.04 units

Parlays: 0-2 for -2.97 units

thecakeoff said:

The Rockies bullpen blew it.

How about the Nats +153?

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Didn't see this originally. Nats are horrible on the road and I can't imagine they win after that huge blowup yesterday. But I also would never lay that chalk on Cincinatti and Saarloos.

Adding one play which has hit the price I got it at:

Cleveland -150: Fausto Carmona goes for his 6th straight win tonight, and I can't find any reason why he won't get it with ease. I understand that Cleveland is not the same team on the road as they are at home, but we're talking about KC at home here with Odalis Perez pitching. Perez looked solid in his previous 2 starts, but they were both on the road (where he's pitched better) and were both against fairly weak offenses (Chi Sox and A's). He has yet to put up a solid performance against a good offense this year, and I don't expect him to start with the Indians tonight. On the season, Perez is 1-2 at home with a 6.04 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a .322 BAA.

On the other side, Carmona is 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and a .245 BAA on the road. He's gone at least 7 innings in 5 straight starts (he got the win in all 5), and has given up more than 6 hits or more than 2 runs only once each since a bad first start this year. While he may not be the #1 starter he's looked like recently, he shouldn't have much trouble with the Royals, who are much worse at home (7-14) than the Indians are on the road (10-11). Overall, KC has certainly been playing better recently. But they've yet to impress anyone at home this year and I think that trend continues against a blazing hot Indians team and starting pitcher. 1.50 units to win 1.

Also looking at Detroit, Boston, Houston, Milwaukee, and Pittsburgh. And as I said above, I played San Diego but don't expect the price I got to become readily available, so it likely won't be an official play. BOL today guys. Here's hoping for some solid performances by some public favs.

Either there are a lot of sharps out there who see something I don't, or there is something weird going on with these lines today. Philly is down to -124. The Mets are down to -115. As I mentioned above, Cleveland dropped further than I would have expected. Houston continues to drop, although slowly. And now I get Milwaukee at even money? Something's fishy, but I'll bite.

Milwaukee +100: Sheets has been pitching more and more like we expected as the season goes on. In his last 6 starts, he hasn't allowed more than 7 hits or 3 ERs. And he's starting to put up bigger strikeout numbers as well. Also, despite Milwaukee's troubles recently, they're still winning games they should be winning. Over their last 16 games as a favorite, the Brewers are 12-4 (they're no longer a favorite in this, but they opened as one). Despite Randy Wolf's success so far this year, I can't say I'm a believer, or at least not against Sheets and the Brewers' solid offense. At this price, I just can't resist backing Sheets against a slumping Dodgers offense. 1 unit to win 1.

Pittsburgh +130: I put in a play at +132 this morning and figured I'd see if I got the number I wanted, which I finally did. Posting this as a +130 play though because that's the readily available line at MB. Anyway, Wainwright has been a bust so far this year as a starter, especially at home, and that pretty much sums up the Cards' season. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has surprised people for much of the year (to the extent that a team 5 games under .500 can be considered a surprise) and have been a better team on the road. Most of the numbers in this one favor St. Louis. Pitt is 6-20 in Duke's last 26 road starts. Pitt is 6-16 in their last 22 games in St. Louis. Pitt has lost Duke's last 3 starts, and he has lost 4 straight decisions. But Duke has pitched much better over his last few starts than he did early this season and in seasons past. In his last 5 starts he's given up only 10 earned runs in 31.1 innings (2.87 ERA over that span). He's been losing due to lack of run support, but I'm hoping that Wainwright will give up his typical 6 runs tonight to give Duke a bit of breathing room. Duke has also had some decent success against the Cardinals (2-1 in 5 starts with a 3.72 ERA) so I'm hoping that can continue. 1 unit to win 1.3.

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Here are my thoughts on the rest of the games I have been looking at. These are NOT plays yet, and may not end up as plays at all.

Detroit +119: I was looking to get +128 or so on this one and it doesn't look like it's going to happen. This seems like a solid spot for the Tigers, but I need good odds to back Maroth against Lackey. Tigers are on a nice run right now, having won 15 of 20. Furthermore, the Tigers are playing very solid ball at home this year, while the Angels, despite their recent road success, are still under .500 on the road. I understand that there is only so much one can put into streaks like this, but LA has won 15 of the last 19 matchups between these two in Detroit, which suprised the hell out of me. If it doesn't hit my target, I am leaning toward following another capper or two on this for a small play and leaving it off my official plays.

Boston +155: Hoping this goes up just a bit more before gametime. Mussina's ERA is worse than Tavarez's this year (I believe it's actually worse than any other start on Boston or New York's rosters). Sure, Moose is a better pitcher, but there seems to be something missing this year in his stuff. He's also only gone 6 innings once so far, and I like the Sox's chances against this NY bullpen. Sox are the better team and despite the fact that the Yanks have the better pitcher going, this line once again seems high. Many have already jumped back on board the NY bandwagon and are expecting a huge run. I just don't see it with all the troubles they've had.

Houston -108: I have a tough time resisting Oswalt at a price like this. San Fran is a much better team at home, but I'm not convinced that Lincecum can repeat his performance from Thursday. There's more pressure on him at home, and that may have had something to do with his awful start in San Fran (although it may also have just been jitters from his first big league start). I've seen a few people on the Giants today, but I just can't see backing this rookie (albeit a very good one) against Oswalt at barely more than even money). Just my $.02.

BOL to everyone today.

GL Jibba...One of us will beat the books today haha.

I been looking at the Stros' game all day and like it, at least we agree on one.

:aktion033

Good to hear it Pyro. Gonna play them after all.

Houston -108: 1.08 units to win 1.
Boston +155: 1 unit to win 1.55.

Some may think the Boston play is a homer play, but it really isn't. I just think the Yankees are overpriced because everyone and their mothers think the Yankees are back and about to explode on some huge winning streak. They've been saying it all year. And whenever the Yanks pull off 2 straight wins, everyone starts jumping back on board and gets burned. Odds are too enticing. Good chance that we see them blow up yet again IMO.

So I decided not to increase any of these plays to 1.5 units. Feel great about some of them but just going to stick it out as is with the large card. Here it is in total:

Philadelphia: 1.31 units to win 1.
NY Mets: 1.24 units to win 1.
Baltimore: 1.05 units to win 1.
Tampa Bay: 1.15 units to win 1.
Cleveland: 1.50 units to win 1.
Milwaukee: 1 unit to win 1.
Pittsburgh: 1 unit to win 1.3.
Boston: 1 unit to win 1.55.
Houston: 1.08 units to win 1.


I'm also on San Diego, but not at a price that's available so I won't list it.

And btw, not that anyone's listening or remembers my car problems, but I'm picking up the new (to me) car tonight. Being married, I obviously get screwed but I'm still upgrading. I get the wife's 2003 or 2004 Toyota Corolla and she's getting a silver 2005 Chrysler Pacifica. The blind will likely get my piece of junk which can't move out of the driveway (the charity of course). Turns out the straw that broke the camel's back was the timing belt, although that doesn't include all the problems I had put off fixing. Anyway, we drove a Pacifica on a vacation a year or two ago in Arizona and really liked it. This one's got all the works too and only 22K miles to go alone with a 4 year warranty. Good stuff.

BOL to everyone on their cards tonight.

Big card today... btw nice writeup's! BOL today Jibba!

Rencis said:

Big card today... btw nice writeup's! BOL today Jibba!

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Yeah, I generally play a lot of games but flat bet or almost flat bet pretty much all of them. A little different from the norm, but it's worked for me.

Anyways, regarding my card today, I lied. I've been burned in the past by increasing my plays when I really like some of the games, but it's one area that I'm trying to improve. So I'll give it another shot today by making 3 plays to win 1.5 units.

Philadelphia: 1.93 units to win 1.5 (additional 0.5 unit play at -124).
NY Mets: 1.24 units to win 1.
Baltimore: 1.58 units to win 1.5 (additional 0.5 unit play at -106).
Tampa Bay: 1.74 units to win 1.5 (additionaly 0.5 unit play at -117).
Cleveland: 1.50 units to win 1.
Milwaukee: 1 unit to win 1.
Pittsburgh: 1 unit to win 1.3.
Boston: 1 unit to win 1.55.
Houston: 1.08 units to win 1.

That should do it for me . . . finally. :thumbsup:

jib you are usually on santana, im loving them tonight (min)

ATP said:

jib you are usually on santana, im loving them tonight (min)

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Ended up having small action plays on them and the White Sox because bids I put in this morning ended up being accepted after I left work. Wish it had been for more.

Well, like many here I've had one of my worst nights all season. The Brewers, Astros and Indians could minimize the loss a bit, but I'm still going to have to do a bit of re-evaluating.