Money Lines:
Favorites: 116-68 for +16.42 units
Underdogs: 36-39 for +7.18 units
Total: 151-100 for for +23.6 units
Run Lines: 5-6 for -0.04 units
Parlays: 0-2 for -2.97 units
______________________________________________________
Yesterday was an embarrassment. Plummeted far below the 30 unit mark after being above it for 3 weeks or so. But those days happen I guess. Saw a lot of value in those games and that's the extent of what I can do. Fuck it though. I'm sick of losing and want like hell to get back on track today. I told when capping today's games that I would play less games, but play them stronger. I decided to only play games in which I had a full 20 cents worth of value on the line, rather than the 10 cents I've been taking previously. Little did I know how many games I'd find today where the books were happy to give me my 20 cents of value.
Also, I'm up on the season, and actually up even more than my record indicates due to success on non-official plays. If I didn't differentiate between plays this season (1 unit plays, 1.5 unit plays, and 2 unit plays), I would probably be up a good 10 units more than I am. I will go back to flat betting for the time being because I have not had success trying to value games differently. Also, because I will usually be playing fewer games going forward, I intend to play each game as a 1.5 unit play. It may seem undisciplined since it is so early in the season and since I have been losing recently, but I will still generally be risking less than I was previously on any given day.
Minnesota +12?: I had this game originally at -110 for the Rangers, but it basically came out as a coin flip when I dug a bit deeper. I just missed out on the Twins at +125 on MB and will wait to see how close to that number I can get. If I can't get above +120 I won't play it. I will post when I actually make this a play, but wanted to get the writeup out of the way since I think I'll get my number.
Texas rarely beats good pitchers. And that's what they face this afternoon in Boof Bonser. Bonser has been very solid lately, whether at home or on the road, having put up a 2-0 record with a 2.10 ERA over his last 5 starts. I don't like to rely too much on trends, but the Twins have gone 8-1 in Bonser's last 9 starts as a dog, 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a road dog, 6-1 in his last 7 road starts, and 5-1 in his last 6 starts overall. Conversely, Texas is 1-4 in Tejeda's last 5 starts as a favorite, 1-4 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite, and 1-7 in his last 8 starts against teams with a losing record. Simply put, Tejeda and the Rangers seem to play down to their competition. And this is a nice spot for the Rangers to continue that trend, considering that Sosa will likely be on the bench today and that the Twins are starting to heat up just a bit. I think Johan finally throwing a gem will give them the jumpstart they need to get back into the AL Central/wild card races. 1.5 units to win ???.
Boston +12?: I capped this game as yet another coin flip, and if the books want to give me +125 (current price) on a coin flip, I'll take it. Going to wait just a bit longer to see if the line hits +130. Again, I'll post when I actually make this play.
The Sox have been very solid on the road this year, while the Yankees have yet to play solid anywhere this season. But the public still believes. The Sox are 7-2 in games which Schilling started (including 1 win over the Yankees), while the Yankees are 3-6 in games in which Pettitte started (including 2 losses to Boston). Boston has won 8 of the last 10 matchups between these 2 teams, and 5 of the last 7 in NY. Pettitte has been less effective at home than on the road this year, and a number of Red Sox players have hit Pettitte and the Yankees this year. I'll continue to go against the overvalued Yankees. 1.5 units to win ???.
Baltimore -116: I capped this one at -140. Despite last night's game, the Orioles are still a solid home team (12-9) and the Blue Jays are still a horrible road team (8-13, having lost 8 of their last 10 away from home). The Orioles, despite their recent woes, have won 6 of their last 8 against the Jays at home. Additionally, Trachsel has actually been very solid this year, especially at home where he is 1-0 in 3 starts with a 1.47 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 1.97 BAA. One of those appearances was against this same Toronto team, and Trachsel shut them down, allowing only 4 hits and 1 run in 5.1 innings. Trachsel has also never lost to Toronto, having put up a 4-0 record in 5 starts with a 2.93 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a .252 BAA. McGowan is just taking up room right now on a major league roster, and we should expect to see him give up his typical 5 runs in 4-5 innings. 1.74 units to win 1.5.
Want to get these out before the line on that Orioles game moves, but I will post a couple more games in a few minutes.
Favorites: 116-68 for +16.42 units
Underdogs: 36-39 for +7.18 units
Total: 151-100 for for +23.6 units
Run Lines: 5-6 for -0.04 units
Parlays: 0-2 for -2.97 units
______________________________________________________
Yesterday was an embarrassment. Plummeted far below the 30 unit mark after being above it for 3 weeks or so. But those days happen I guess. Saw a lot of value in those games and that's the extent of what I can do. Fuck it though. I'm sick of losing and want like hell to get back on track today. I told when capping today's games that I would play less games, but play them stronger. I decided to only play games in which I had a full 20 cents worth of value on the line, rather than the 10 cents I've been taking previously. Little did I know how many games I'd find today where the books were happy to give me my 20 cents of value.
Also, I'm up on the season, and actually up even more than my record indicates due to success on non-official plays. If I didn't differentiate between plays this season (1 unit plays, 1.5 unit plays, and 2 unit plays), I would probably be up a good 10 units more than I am. I will go back to flat betting for the time being because I have not had success trying to value games differently. Also, because I will usually be playing fewer games going forward, I intend to play each game as a 1.5 unit play. It may seem undisciplined since it is so early in the season and since I have been losing recently, but I will still generally be risking less than I was previously on any given day.
Minnesota +12?: I had this game originally at -110 for the Rangers, but it basically came out as a coin flip when I dug a bit deeper. I just missed out on the Twins at +125 on MB and will wait to see how close to that number I can get. If I can't get above +120 I won't play it. I will post when I actually make this a play, but wanted to get the writeup out of the way since I think I'll get my number.
Texas rarely beats good pitchers. And that's what they face this afternoon in Boof Bonser. Bonser has been very solid lately, whether at home or on the road, having put up a 2-0 record with a 2.10 ERA over his last 5 starts. I don't like to rely too much on trends, but the Twins have gone 8-1 in Bonser's last 9 starts as a dog, 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a road dog, 6-1 in his last 7 road starts, and 5-1 in his last 6 starts overall. Conversely, Texas is 1-4 in Tejeda's last 5 starts as a favorite, 1-4 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite, and 1-7 in his last 8 starts against teams with a losing record. Simply put, Tejeda and the Rangers seem to play down to their competition. And this is a nice spot for the Rangers to continue that trend, considering that Sosa will likely be on the bench today and that the Twins are starting to heat up just a bit. I think Johan finally throwing a gem will give them the jumpstart they need to get back into the AL Central/wild card races. 1.5 units to win ???.
Boston +12?: I capped this game as yet another coin flip, and if the books want to give me +125 (current price) on a coin flip, I'll take it. Going to wait just a bit longer to see if the line hits +130. Again, I'll post when I actually make this play.
The Sox have been very solid on the road this year, while the Yankees have yet to play solid anywhere this season. But the public still believes. The Sox are 7-2 in games which Schilling started (including 1 win over the Yankees), while the Yankees are 3-6 in games in which Pettitte started (including 2 losses to Boston). Boston has won 8 of the last 10 matchups between these 2 teams, and 5 of the last 7 in NY. Pettitte has been less effective at home than on the road this year, and a number of Red Sox players have hit Pettitte and the Yankees this year. I'll continue to go against the overvalued Yankees. 1.5 units to win ???.
Baltimore -116: I capped this one at -140. Despite last night's game, the Orioles are still a solid home team (12-9) and the Blue Jays are still a horrible road team (8-13, having lost 8 of their last 10 away from home). The Orioles, despite their recent woes, have won 6 of their last 8 against the Jays at home. Additionally, Trachsel has actually been very solid this year, especially at home where he is 1-0 in 3 starts with a 1.47 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 1.97 BAA. One of those appearances was against this same Toronto team, and Trachsel shut them down, allowing only 4 hits and 1 run in 5.1 innings. Trachsel has also never lost to Toronto, having put up a 4-0 record in 5 starts with a 2.93 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a .252 BAA. McGowan is just taking up room right now on a major league roster, and we should expect to see him give up his typical 5 runs in 4-5 innings. 1.74 units to win 1.5.
Want to get these out before the line on that Orioles game moves, but I will post a couple more games in a few minutes.
