HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Washington +1.57 over CINCINNATI
If someone can give us one reason to pass up taking back a price like this against the Reds we’ll listen but we don’t expect any emails. The Reds have just one more win then the Nats and Kyle Lohse is not fooling anybody. Lohse last won way back on April 15 but has posted an ERA of 8.03 in five starts since, losing all five. He’s lasted a combined 12 innings over his last three starts. The Reds have lost 15 of their past 20 games and were soundly beaten last night in the opener, 8-4 and managed only five hits. Washington is playing so much better and Jason Simontacchi is slowly but surely getting better. Remember, Jason Simontacchi missed the last two years because of injuries but he’s progressing nicely. He’ll make his fourth start of the year after pitching a good ballgame in Baltimore last Friday. The Nationals are scoring runs; they’re winning ball games and they’re a very nice overlay here. Play: Washington +1.57 (Risking 2 units). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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Philadelphia/FLORIDA over 9 –1.09
Two excellent hitting clubs going up against two very soft pitchers has us leaning to the over in this one. Freddy Garcia has started seven games this season and has just one win to his credit. Even more noteworthy is the fact that the opposition is hitting .311 off him and the Marlins have already seen him once. In that game Garcia didn’t make it out of the fifth inning. Even when he records outs, they’re loud outs. Byung-Hyun Kim is capable of going about five innings and that’s if he’s on his game, which is not a common occurrence. The Fish picked up Kim on May 13 from Colorado, where he worked out of the pen but they couldn’t wait to ship him elsewhere after he was completely inefficient. Kim is 15-23 with a 5.15 ERA as a starter since 2004 and this season he’s worked just 11 1/3 innings so don’t expect him to bring his “A” game. One or both of these explosive offenses are going to go off tonight, thus, we can’t see this one staying under the number. Play: Over 9 –1.09 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2). <o></o>
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Pittsburgh –1.02 over ST. LOUIS
Kip Wells is just in the bad habit of losing games and will bring his 1-8 record and 6.75 ERA to the mound with him here. Aside from not being able to get anyone out, Wells’ confidence has to be extremely low, as this guy has just 13 wins in his last 60 starts. He’s played for five teams in the last six years and with pitching being so thin in the majors that’s a strong indicator that he’s just a bad experiment. He lost 18 games for the Pirates in 2005 so they’ll recognize him a little bit as the guy that threw 40-minute innings. The Cardinals picked up a rare win last night but will find the going much tougher tonight against Ian Snell, one of the best young arms in the league. Snell is the straight goods and is only going to get better. Snell has surrendered just two bombs in 58 innings while holding the opposition to a .236 batting average. He’s pitched seven full innings in six of his nine starts and the Pirates usually win when Snell throws. This is a cheap lay on the superior pitcher in a very favorable spot. Play: Pittsburgh –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
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DETROIT –1.03 over L.A. Angels
We’re almost tempted to lay the 1½ runs with the Tigers because we like them so much. However, we’ll be happy with any win and will play it accordingly. Sure Bartolo Colon is 5-0 and he’s pitching very good, however, we’ve watched just about every start he’s made this year and we’re not as impressed as the rest of the baseball world. The balls are getting hit hard and Colon has had the luxury of facing the Mariners twice, the D-Rays, Texas, KC and the White Sox. With the exception of Tampa Bay those other five clubs have struggled miserably to score runs and Colon was the benefactor. We’re suggesting he’s about to get blown up and this is the squad that can do it. We also like Chad Durbin. His ERA is 4.67 but most of that can be attributed to a rough start. Durbin has gone five straight starts without allowing more then two earned runs and that’s as impressive as any pitcher in the business. Looking ahead, this is a game we’ve had circled for a few days and truly trust that the Tigers will get to Colon early and often. Play: Detroit –1.03 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2). <o></o>
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Toronto +1.22 over BALTIMORE
The Blue Jays have come to life after a very rough stretch and the Orioles are going in the other direction. In fact, the O’s have lost seven of nine while the Jays have won seven of 10. Dustin McGowan has some ugly looking numbers but this guy is so close to being a very effective starter. He definitely has the stuff but he’s fighting it out there and hopefully he’s learned a few lessons. Besides, who the hell is Steve Trachsel to be favored over anyone? Trachsel lulls his infielders and outfielders to sleep because he takes about an hour between pitches and two hours if a fast runner is on base. They should hand out pillows at the gates when this guy starts. So yeah, Trachsel has put up some good numbers this season but we all know that’s not going to last because he’s just not that good and it’s a very rare day that he’ll pitch a full six innings. When you wager on the Orioles the last thing you want to hear from the announcers is, “there’s activity in the pen”. We’ll be hearing those beautiful words tonight at some point but by then it may not matter. Jays plus anything here is pretty fair play indeed, as hot vs cold with a tag always is. Play: Toronto +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Washington +1.57 over CINCINNATI
If someone can give us one reason to pass up taking back a price like this against the Reds we’ll listen but we don’t expect any emails. The Reds have just one more win then the Nats and Kyle Lohse is not fooling anybody. Lohse last won way back on April 15 but has posted an ERA of 8.03 in five starts since, losing all five. He’s lasted a combined 12 innings over his last three starts. The Reds have lost 15 of their past 20 games and were soundly beaten last night in the opener, 8-4 and managed only five hits. Washington is playing so much better and Jason Simontacchi is slowly but surely getting better. Remember, Jason Simontacchi missed the last two years because of injuries but he’s progressing nicely. He’ll make his fourth start of the year after pitching a good ballgame in Baltimore last Friday. The Nationals are scoring runs; they’re winning ball games and they’re a very nice overlay here. Play: Washington +1.57 (Risking 2 units). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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></o>Philadelphia/FLORIDA over 9 –1.09
Two excellent hitting clubs going up against two very soft pitchers has us leaning to the over in this one. Freddy Garcia has started seven games this season and has just one win to his credit. Even more noteworthy is the fact that the opposition is hitting .311 off him and the Marlins have already seen him once. In that game Garcia didn’t make it out of the fifth inning. Even when he records outs, they’re loud outs. Byung-Hyun Kim is capable of going about five innings and that’s if he’s on his game, which is not a common occurrence. The Fish picked up Kim on May 13 from Colorado, where he worked out of the pen but they couldn’t wait to ship him elsewhere after he was completely inefficient. Kim is 15-23 with a 5.15 ERA as a starter since 2004 and this season he’s worked just 11 1/3 innings so don’t expect him to bring his “A” game. One or both of these explosive offenses are going to go off tonight, thus, we can’t see this one staying under the number. Play: Over 9 –1.09 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2). <o
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></o>Pittsburgh –1.02 over ST. LOUIS
Kip Wells is just in the bad habit of losing games and will bring his 1-8 record and 6.75 ERA to the mound with him here. Aside from not being able to get anyone out, Wells’ confidence has to be extremely low, as this guy has just 13 wins in his last 60 starts. He’s played for five teams in the last six years and with pitching being so thin in the majors that’s a strong indicator that he’s just a bad experiment. He lost 18 games for the Pirates in 2005 so they’ll recognize him a little bit as the guy that threw 40-minute innings. The Cardinals picked up a rare win last night but will find the going much tougher tonight against Ian Snell, one of the best young arms in the league. Snell is the straight goods and is only going to get better. Snell has surrendered just two bombs in 58 innings while holding the opposition to a .236 batting average. He’s pitched seven full innings in six of his nine starts and the Pirates usually win when Snell throws. This is a cheap lay on the superior pitcher in a very favorable spot. Play: Pittsburgh –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
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We’re almost tempted to lay the 1½ runs with the Tigers because we like them so much. However, we’ll be happy with any win and will play it accordingly. Sure Bartolo Colon is 5-0 and he’s pitching very good, however, we’ve watched just about every start he’s made this year and we’re not as impressed as the rest of the baseball world. The balls are getting hit hard and Colon has had the luxury of facing the Mariners twice, the D-Rays, Texas, KC and the White Sox. With the exception of Tampa Bay those other five clubs have struggled miserably to score runs and Colon was the benefactor. We’re suggesting he’s about to get blown up and this is the squad that can do it. We also like Chad Durbin. His ERA is 4.67 but most of that can be attributed to a rough start. Durbin has gone five straight starts without allowing more then two earned runs and that’s as impressive as any pitcher in the business. Looking ahead, this is a game we’ve had circled for a few days and truly trust that the Tigers will get to Colon early and often. Play: Detroit –1.03 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2). <o
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></o>Toronto +1.22 over BALTIMORE
The Blue Jays have come to life after a very rough stretch and the Orioles are going in the other direction. In fact, the O’s have lost seven of nine while the Jays have won seven of 10. Dustin McGowan has some ugly looking numbers but this guy is so close to being a very effective starter. He definitely has the stuff but he’s fighting it out there and hopefully he’s learned a few lessons. Besides, who the hell is Steve Trachsel to be favored over anyone? Trachsel lulls his infielders and outfielders to sleep because he takes about an hour between pitches and two hours if a fast runner is on base. They should hand out pillows at the gates when this guy starts. So yeah, Trachsel has put up some good numbers this season but we all know that’s not going to last because he’s just not that good and it’s a very rare day that he’ll pitch a full six innings. When you wager on the Orioles the last thing you want to hear from the announcers is, “there’s activity in the pen”. We’ll be hearing those beautiful words tonight at some point but by then it may not matter. Jays plus anything here is pretty fair play indeed, as hot vs cold with a tag always is. Play: Toronto +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
