Jibba's Thursday MLB

Money Lines:

Favorites: 118-68 for +19.42 units
Underdogs: 38-42 for +4.48 units
Total: 151-100 for for +23.9 units

Run Lines: 5-6 for -0.04 units

Parlays: 0-2 for -2.97 units

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Well, I was 3-3 on the night with my new system. Figures that if I had stuck with the way I had been playing games, I would have been 6-4. But in the long run, I'm sure I'll appreciate the change to the more disciplined approach. Sticking with this approach, I'm just going to post my lines for today's games and go from there. I still need to do a bit of research so my lines are subject to change.

Cardinals -122
My line: Cardinals -140

Marlins -116
My line: Marlins -115

Reds -152
My line: Reds -134

Braves -130
My line: Braves -146

Diamondbacks -109
My line: Diamondbacks -135

Padres -130
My line: ???

Tigers -146
My line: Tigers -164

Mariners -109
My line: Mariners -120

Orioles -120
My line: Orioles -132

Indians -125
My line: Indians -140

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Still have a lot to look at in the Padres game. I put in a number of bids on games this morning at MB and am happy to see that 3 were matched. I got Arizona +100, Detroit -142, and St. Louis -112. Those numbers obviously are not widely available. As long as the readily available line gets close to my target today, I will make them official plays as far as my record is concerned. Back in a bit with some writeups.

Cardinals -122 (VIP): If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Two solid pitchers in this one, but only one offense that is worth betting on right now. The Pirates just can't get it done at the plate lately, and I don't see that changing the way Looper has pitched at home this year. Each of these pitchers have already shut down today's opponents this year. Gorzellany has done it twice, but I'm skeptical that he can do it a third time, and in St. Louis. Looper has only had two bad performances this year, and both were on the road against solid offenses (Brewers and Tigers). Although I would agree that Gorzelanny has been equally successful, he can't hit. And that's what Pittsburgh needs right now. The Cards seem like they have some life in them these days and should sweep the Pirates for the second time this year. This is 2 cents shy of the value I would normally want, but since I already played them at -112, I'll take the risk with the higher number as far as my Rx record is concerned. 1.83 units to win 1.5.

Diamondbacks -108: I think people are starting to overvalue Wandy Rodriguez and undervalue Micah Owings. Rodriguez's numbers are hard to resist at this point. On the year he still has a losing record at 2-3, but he's sporting an ERA of 3.99, a WHIP of 1.19, and a BAA of .243 to go along with 47 Ks against only 14 BBs. But looking deeper, he has yet to show that he can perform on the road. So far this year Rodriguez is 0-2 on the road, with a 6.75 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a .289 BAA. While Arizona has had a lot of trouble with lefties this year, they'll be getting Young back tonight and he should be able to give them a bit of a spark at home.

Owings, on the other hand, has fallen in the eyes of the public after getting shelled by the Pirates recently. But he's been very solid at home this year, going 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .244 BAA. Tonight he'll be facing a weak Houston offense. Here are some numbers: Houston has hit .247 overall this year, which puts them at 26th in baseball. They've hit .235 against righties this year (28th in the league) with a measly .310 OBP (27th). And over the last 7 days, they've managed to hit only .184 with an OBP of only .252 (both dead last in the league). This is another game that is just out of my target range, but which I got at a better line this morning. So again I'll take the risk of posting at a worse line. 1.62 units to win 1.5.

Tigers -142: I just can't see not fading Santana on the road until he gets past his road woes. Both of these teams come into this game with their offenses roaring along, but the pitching matchup has a very clear winner. I back Santana quite a bit at home, but when he's on the road, he just loses it. On the year, he's 0-4 in 5 starts away from home, with a 7.86 ERA, a 1.97 WHIP, and a .336 BAA (he's also given up 9 HRs in 26.1 IPs). I know that eventually he will get past this, but I just don't see it happening against the Tigers the way they are hitting the ball lately. Although generally I've thought that Bonderman and the rest of Detroit's pitchers have been overvalued this year, I think this is a good price considering Santana's road problems. 2.13 units to win 1.5.

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A couple others are close to my target, but I'm running out of time for the moment. Be back later.

Who's your Tiger?

GL Jibba. On the over in Detroit. Best of luck to us.

GL Jibba

Good Luck today Jibba

Thanks guys. So far so good. But a long way to go in these early games.

Adding:

Indians -119: It's possible this line will get even better, as the public is running as fast as they can from the Indians on the road these days. But anyway . . . yes, the Tribe are just mediocre on the road. And yes, Sowers has not looked good lately. And yes, De La Rosa has pitched well so far for the Royals. But we're still talking about the Royals, who are far worse at home than the Indians are on the road, sweeping Cleveland. Sowers has good stuff and is nowhere near as bad as he's looked in the last 3 games. And he's pitched well against KC in the past. The Indians will eventually get their act together on the road, and they will fade a bit at home. If Oakland's weak offense can knock him around for 10 hits and 6 runs in 4.1 innings at home, I'll take my chances on this Indian offense.

Seattle -110: Not much time for a writeup, but Seattle is playing very solid ball these days. I originally had them at -120, but after a bit more digging, they just barely make my target price of -110. Ramirez is showing signs of life and I think he should be alright against this young (but sometimes scary) TB offense. Seo is just bad and his game log is almost painful to look at, aside from a bright spot against the Twins and Jays (both weak offenses). 1.65 units to win 1.5.

Washington +160: I've stayed away from the Nats the best I could after getting burned by them a number of times early on this season (remember the 5-0 1st inning lead as 2-1 dogs?). But I just can't resist this one. The Reds are really faltering lately and are really no better than the Nats these days. Belisle has been feeling the affects of the reliever-starter transition for a few games now and should have trouble with this suddenly dangerous Washington offense. Actually, aside from his first 2 starts of the year, the Reds are 3-4 when Belisle pitches, and he has allowed 56 hits and 29 runs in 43 innings. Over that span he has an ERA of 5.44, and that includes a complete game, 1 run performance against the Pirates. He's given up 9 hits or more in 3 of his last 4 starts (10 in the last 2), and those are not numbers you want to bring into a game against a team that is hitting, which Washington is somehow doing. Mike Bacsik looked good in his first start of the year, and for these odds I'll bet he can put up similar numbers against this weak Reds offense. Plus, as we've seen over the past 2 days, apparently Cincincatti is Washington's bitch. 1.5 units to win 2.4.

Beware though, I haven't been able to hit on dogs for my life over the last 2 weeks.

GL Jibbs.. was lookin at Lil Indians too.. but got scared.. might put a lil on em now.. GL bro

Thanks Hustla. Was scared on the Tribe too, but just don't see a sweep happening. Indians are too good of a team, regardless of the last couple days. Saw you were on the Reds, which makes me nervous. But I can't hit dogs for shit lately, so you're probably safe there. BOL tonight.

Florida -1.5, +160: Just going to go with my gut here after looking at the lineups. Like this line. 1.5 units to win 2.4.

i see you are 2-1 at this time bol man bad loss on seatle, i had the over and wasnt interested who would have won that game. I would love watching a Washington sweep i think their first this season but i'm still undecided if i should throw a "dime" on indians but sowers's record makes me nervous, i see also some good cappers around on Cleveland. On a scale from 5-10 how much would you rate the tribe ?

Thanks bro. Washington wouldn't be a sweep because it's a 4 game series. Reds won on Monday. But I hear ya. Would be a nice win. Up 1-0 in the 1st. Indians look great IMO, but a lot of people think they look great and sometimes if something looks too good to be true, maybe it is. Personally though, I had the line at -140. I noticed Buffettgambler is also on them, so he must have had it at at least that number. Can't say it's one of my strongest plays, but then again, my strongest plays haven't done well this year. BOL bro.

oh yes you are right about reds/nats series my bad. once again have a great night.
do you have any clue why florida is delayed ? ty

gabbana said:

oh yes you are right about reds/nats series my bad. once again have a great night.
do you have any clue why florida is delayed ? ty

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Thanks you too. Apparently it's rain but I guess they'll play.

Congrats on ur Nats pick Jibbs:aktion033

Thanks man. They burned me early this season and I stayed away til now. Cleveland's lookin' good too. Aside from the Reds, you're lookin' at a perfect night if some of these hold up huh?

Told you Jibba to jump on the Nats in game 2 ive been ridin them ever since !

I had been waiting for you to ask me about them today before I played that one. I was all ready with my witty response cake. :lol:

Nice calls. Some nice coin with those lines.