Jibba's Friday MLB

Jibba · May 25, 2007

Money Lines:

Favorites: 122-69 for +23.77 units
Underdogs: 39-42 for +6.88 units
Total: 151-100 for for +23.9 units

Run Lines: 5-7 for -1.54 units

Parlays: 0-2 for -2.97 units

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Figure I'm up, so I might as well get some of this out of the way. Couple early plays. 5-2 on the day for +5.25 units. Feels good to get back to winning. Once again I got burned by a runline. Eventually I'll learn.

Detroit -128: Haven't placed my bet yet, but will. Cleveland is 3-8 in their last 11 as a dog. They're 1-6 in their last 7 road games, and we all know how mediocre they are on the road. Also, the Indians are 3-14 in Byrd's last 17 road starts. Conversely, Detroit is 12-1 in their last 13 games as a favorite. And they are 10-2 in their last 12 home games. And Cleveland has won only 4 of their last 15 meetings. The Tigers are really turning it on lately, and the Indians will run into a lot of trouble tomorrow IMO. 1.92 units to win 1.5.

Chicago (AL) -130 (VIP): As high as I have been on Tampa with Shields pitching this year, this is not a good spot for them. Buerhle going for win #100 at home and against the worst road team in the league. It still amazes me when I look at Tampa's road woes. In their last 56 road games, they have won a grand total of 10. The White Sox have won 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two, and I love their chances to make it 8 of 11 tomorrow. 1.95 units to win 1.5.

Have leans on LAD, Seattle, and San Diego. Hope everyone made a little cash tonight.

thecakeoff · May 25, 2007

What about the Rangers +170?

Jibba · May 25, 2007

Just going to cut and paste this from the other thread.

While I'll occasionally go against my Sox, this won't be one of the times I do. Texas is not a good team and I rarely bet on them. Boston is money on the road this year (12-4 in their last 16), and they have been winning games they should win all year long. In their last 26 as a favorite, they've won 21. Texas consistently loses games they should lose and have lost 7 of their last 9 as dogs. Dice-K has really been putting up solid performances and I just can't imagine Texas will have much luck against him tomorrow. Line seems pretty damn high, but I think it's for good reason.

That said, every time you ask me about a big dog lately, it cashes. :toast:

thecakeoff · May 25, 2007

Jibba said:
Just going to cut and paste this from the other thread.

While I'll occasionally go against my Sox, this won't be one of the times I do. Texas is not a good team and I rarely bet on them. Boston is money on the road this year (12-4 in their last 16), and they have been winning games they should win all year long. In their last 26 as a favorite, they've won 21. Texas consistently loses games they should lose and have lost 7 of their last 9 as dogs. Dice-K has really been putting up solid performances and I just can't imagine Texas will have much luck against him tomorrow. Line seems pretty damn high, but I think it's for good reason.

That said, every time you ask me about a big dog lately, it cashes. :toast:

Brandon McCarthy is coming off a great outting 6 innings allowing 4 hits and only 1 earned run hes 2-1 at home also has decent #'s against the Bosox Manny and Big Papi havent him in 5 and 6 at bats

This is Matsuzaka first start at Arlington its a hitters park he might have trouble as Texas are hitting pretty well ill take my chances with a home doggie gettin +170 that i think has a good chance of winning

TY for your thoughts :toast:

gabbana · May 25, 2007

good luck friday buddy.

silver7 · May 25, 2007

Rangers Played Like Pu*sies

Against the Twins. RSx RL for me, best Rd # in the AL, 2nd best in MLB. Tx will be confused vs DaisyDuke IMO.

Gravy · May 25, 2007

Jibba,Have to agree on your Tigers pick tonight but it pains me but I think Bryd is due to get pounded and against this Tigers lineup thats RED HOT right now I think it happens.Best of Luck on your games today.Gravy :103631605

Jibba · May 25, 2007

Thanks Gabbana. BOL today.

silver7,

I'm definitely considering that run line even though I haven't done very well with runlines this year. Only worry is that McCarthy has been very solid lately. BOL today.

Gravy,

Glad to see someone agrees with the Tigers pick. I've always like Byrd personally, but that's usually in the face of people who think he's awful. He's a decent #3 or 4 IMO. I've been on Cleveland a lot this year, but I just love this spot for the Tigers. Like you said, they're red hot right now and not a lineup Byrd wants to face IMO. BOL today.

Jibba · May 25, 2007

thecakeoff said:
Brandon McCarthy is coming off a great outting 6 innings allowing 4 hits and only 1 earned run hes 2-1 at home also has decent #'s against the Bosox Manny and Big Papi havent him in 5 and 6 at bats

This is Matsuzaka first start at Arlington its a hitters park he might have trouble as Texas are hitting pretty well ill take my chances with a home doggie gettin +170 that i think has a good chance of winning

TY for your thoughts :toast:

McCarthy has looked good lately, but aside from the Yankees, he hasn't pitched against a good offense since mid-April. And the Yankees are so hit or miss, that we can only take so much from it. I know Arlington is a hitter's park, but that's the kind of game where I'd rather take the better pitcher. McCarthy has been seriously hampered by pitching at Arlington this year, putting up a 6.23 ERA. And now that the hype has died down, Dice-K is rolling. Texas bats are definitely getting hot lately though, so who knows. BOL.

Jibba · May 25, 2007

My lines for today's card, which are subject to slight changes, along with the currently available lines:

NY Mets -116
My line: -134

Reds -152
My line: Reds -165

Braves -153
My line: Braves -168

Cardinals -155
My line: Cardinals -140

Diamondbacks -118
My line: Diamondbacks -110

Padres -125
My line: Padres -144

Giants -160
My line: Giants -154

LA Dodgers -118
My line: Dodgers -131

NY Yankees -125
My line: NY Yankees -100

Baltimore -102
My line: Oakland -115

Tigers -123
My line: Tigers -156

Red Sox -174
My line: Red Sox -165

Seattle -112
My line: Seattle -130

Twins -125
My line: Twins -142

White Sox -133
My line: White Sox -155

Jibba · May 25, 2007

Well apparently I'm missing something regarding Cleveland. Line has plumetted to -113 on Detroit and I have no idea why. I ended up getting -122 on that one personally, but had to post a line when I made the pick. Still, that's about 10 cents that I missed out on because I still am wrong more than half the time in regards to which way a line will move. Is all this because of Byrd's past success against the Tribe, or is it just purely contrarian? Neither of these reasons make much sense to me. Anyway, going to wait on these lines as everything seems to be moving in the opposite direction as I would have expected (except the Mets, which have skyrocketed).

thecakeoff · May 25, 2007

Atlanta Braves run line looks sexy but first i have to find out if Ryan Howard is playing or not

a153 · May 25, 2007

How come books are putting the seattle line so low?

Jibba · May 25, 2007

thecakeoff said:
Atlanta Braves run line looks sexy but first i have to find out if Ryan Howard is playing or not

It does look pretty solid, all things considered. At this point though, the money line might hit my target so I'll probably hold out to see if I can get that.

a153 said:
How come books are putting the seattle line so low?

My guess is that people are suddenly infatuated with KC after they almost swept the Tribe. And Felix has yet to wow them since he got back from injury. There are also all sorts of trends in favor of KC. Plus, in the past 2 weeks or so, Meche beat Haren twice in low scoring matchups. People may expect the same tonight and just take the dog. Finally, KC is actually playing well lately, having won 8 of their last 11, so people are starting to ride them. They're still very weak at home though IMO.

Jibba · May 25, 2007

Oakland +102: Bedard is one of the best pitchers in the AL right now, but Haren has looked like the best pitcher in all of baseball so far this season. On the season he's put up an astonishing 1.74 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. The Orioles are playing awful right now, and somehow found a way to lose 2 of 3 to the Blue Jays at home after stretch where the Jays had lost 9 of 10 on the road. Also, I was burned by Oakland the last time they traveled out to Baltimore. Not this time. The A's have won 25 of their last 32 games in Baltimore. I gotta go with Haren to get it done here considering all of Baltimore's current problems. 1.5 units to win 1.53.

theDonger · May 25, 2007

Jibba said:
Oakland +102: Bedard is one of the best pitchers in the AL right now, but Haren has looked like the best pitcher in all of baseball so far this season. On the season he's put up an astonishing 1.74 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. The Orioles are playing awful right now, and somehow found a way to lose 2 of 3 to the Blue Jays at home after stretch where the Jays had lost 9 of 10 on the road. Also, I was burned by Oakland the last time they traveled out to Baltimore. Not this time. The A's have won 25 of their last 32 games in Baltimore. I gotta go with Haren to get it done here considering all of Baltimore's current problems. 1.5 units to win 1.53.

Nice, I was wondering the same thing-- How the hell is Oakland a dog .. if only slightly.. to win this game?

Other boggling thoughts include this infatuation with the Yankees. Despite yesterday's shutout/blowout against an above average Detroit team.. they come in as dogs against Tyle Clippard who has been in the league a whole 5 minutes? Who did he beat? The Mets who lately are having problems hitting the ball? My money will be on the proven pitcher Mr. Jered Weaver tonight.

I also very much like Atlanta tonight... and trying to pull the trigger on DiceK and the Red Sox tonight. Seems like any team that see's him for the first time gets SMOKED by him. But I don't want that to be my only reasoning..

Thoughts?

thecakeoff · May 25, 2007

A's/O's seems like a coin flip game

Jibba · May 25, 2007

I agree on all of the above and will likely be adding a couple of those plays. Angels are pretty much definite, but figure I'll wait and see if I can get +140 or something since it's been rising steadily all day, as NYY lines tend to do. Hope Atlanta drops just a little bit more as well.

Ok, so because it is a very dead day before a long weekend, I've had a bit of extra time to look at some games and have found 2 totals that I want to play. I've never had great success with totals, but am going to try to start anew here.

Seattle/KC under 8, -105: Two very solid starters facing up tonight. KC has a weak offense as is, and Seattle had a huge offensive outburst yesterday, which leads me to believe that they'll have a bit of trouble tonight. 1.05 units to win 1.

Washington/St. Louis over 8.5, -105: Two offenses coming in that have hit fairly well lately matching up with two well below average pitchers. The Cardinals scored 17 runs in their 3 game series with Pittsburgh, while the Nats scored a whopping 31 in their 4 game series with the Reds. And tonight we get the bottom of the barrel as far as pitchers for these teams go. Reyes is 0-7 5.84 ERA, while Bowie is a reliever forced into starting, and will likely not be able to go more than 4 or 5 innings. That leaves the Nats' bullpen plenty of time to give up their typical 3 or 4 runs. Really think this one has a good chance at turning into a slugfest. 1.58 units to win 1.5.

gabbana · May 25, 2007

i might play a little on Haren too jibba, but i have to capp well that game because i see a lot of people on A's.

theDonger · May 25, 2007

Jibba said:
I agree on all of the above and will likely be adding a couple of those plays. Angels are pretty much definite, but figure I'll wait and see if I can get +140 or something since it's been rising steadily all day, as NYY lines tend to do. Hope Atlanta drops just a little bit more as well.

Honestly, I hope that Howard is announced to start at some point... and the price on Atlanta plummets. With or without him I think Hudson will prove to be too much for the Philly lineup. Howard just off a rehab stint I think makes for a weaker lineup.

Just my opinion tho