The argument on Smoltz got me thinking, will there ever be another pitcher that wins 300 games? I decided to look at the closest candidates and you also need to understand I am counting guys like Randy Johnson as in....
Johan Santana
Mark Buehrle
Jon Garland
Felix Hernandez
Dontrelle Willis
Roy Oswalt
Jake Peavy
Ok that is my main list...
Johan - At 28 years old he has 83 wins and is beginning to peak. Could possibly have 100 at the end of the year but most certainly will by next year.... Will need 200 wins in roughly 11 years... at about 18 a year. His change is his best pitch and he seems like he is a smart pitcher. Think he falls around 250-280 Wins... So not quite. Think he would be a shoe in if he didn't start so late.
Buehrle - Only 28 as well but has 99 victories. Doesn't throw very hard and could have around 110 victories by the end of the year. Leaving him 190 short. Could very well pitch into his 40's and if he is in the NL his ERA and wins should be better. Has never won 20 though and needs to average about 18 for 9 years to put him around 300... And he can stride from there. His arm will let him pitch that long but not sure a team will. Seems like the league will catch up with him eventually. Finishes 230-260 Wins.
Garland - At 27 years old this may be the leagues best bet if he has truly figured out the league. 85 wins already and should be approaching 100 by seasons end similar to Johan but a year earlier. Could string together 6-8 straight years of 17+ wins putting him in the 200 range. If he can stay in shape and motivated he finishes around Johan because he got such an early start. He seems to have learned how to win at this level which would be an obvious +. If he pitches until he is forty and can win 16 games a year until then he could make it. Or if he can have 2-4 more seasons at 18-20 wins he will only need 14+ wins the last 3-4 years of his career to reach the milestone. 250-280 Wins
Felix - Only 21 and like Garland has been forced to learn at the Big League level which is what it is going to take to reach this mark now a days. Has 18 wins at his young age and if he can stay healthy should be able to approach 30 by years end. If he can stay healthy, which seems to be a big if, he has a great chance. 14 Wins a year until he is 40 and he has it. But If he can throw a few 18-20 win seasons in there he could have 174 wins by the time he turns 30... Health is a big question mark with this youngster... But if he stays healthy it is within his reach. Health is such a question I put him at 185-200 wins... Similar to Pedro
Dontrelle - He is so up and down but he is only 25 and already has 64 wins. Meaning he would need to average 15 wins until he is 40... Dontrelle is inconsistent making it tough for me to think he can do this. But if he can go to a contender with a solid offense he could eventually approach the number. But I don't think he quiet gets there. He seems to have a good time on the mound but his ERA continues to rise and that could spell trouble for him... 170-190
Oswalt - At 29 he only has 104 victories but it is tough to count him out. Should have 120 by years end leaving him with 18 wins for 10 seasons and he has it. But can he pitch that long. Has showed longevity issues as well and not sure he will pitch until then. If he can grab 3-4 more 20 win seasons he has a shot. Put him as close but no cigar 260-280
Peavy - At 25 Peavy already has 5 seasons under his belt and 63 wins. Should be approaching 80 by seasons end. Leaving him 220 behind. Peavy is a stud on the mound and he seems to have figured the league out. If he can stay healthy and pitch with his consistency and stuff he has a chance. He is so young that he will be at 100 at the age of 27 and will have been in the league for 7 full seasons. But only 2 of those seasons did he pitch to form. If he can string 5-6 seasons together where he pitches to form he could have 120 wins in 6 years... bringing him to 220 wins with 13 years under his belt and being at the age of 33.... In 7 years, thinking he pitches to 40, he has to win 80 games bringing him to about 12 a year... I think Peavy is the guy that gets it done. But for this to happen it takes two things... He needs to stay healthy, and he has to get out of San Diego and play for a contender with an offense. If he can do it I put Peavy at 300-315 wins. Add to the list if you have people on your mind.
A guy I left off the list is Carlos Zambrano... mainly because of how he has started this year but he is in Peavy's boat... But he needs to get out of Chicago and it doesn't look like he will...
I think you need to start pitching and learn at the big league level if this feat is ever going to be accomplished again. All these guys did that and have a lot of wins for their young age. Depending on who closes the strongest I think one of these guys get there.
Johan Santana
Mark Buehrle
Jon Garland
Felix Hernandez
Dontrelle Willis
Roy Oswalt
Jake Peavy
Ok that is my main list...
Johan - At 28 years old he has 83 wins and is beginning to peak. Could possibly have 100 at the end of the year but most certainly will by next year.... Will need 200 wins in roughly 11 years... at about 18 a year. His change is his best pitch and he seems like he is a smart pitcher. Think he falls around 250-280 Wins... So not quite. Think he would be a shoe in if he didn't start so late.
Buehrle - Only 28 as well but has 99 victories. Doesn't throw very hard and could have around 110 victories by the end of the year. Leaving him 190 short. Could very well pitch into his 40's and if he is in the NL his ERA and wins should be better. Has never won 20 though and needs to average about 18 for 9 years to put him around 300... And he can stride from there. His arm will let him pitch that long but not sure a team will. Seems like the league will catch up with him eventually. Finishes 230-260 Wins.
Garland - At 27 years old this may be the leagues best bet if he has truly figured out the league. 85 wins already and should be approaching 100 by seasons end similar to Johan but a year earlier. Could string together 6-8 straight years of 17+ wins putting him in the 200 range. If he can stay in shape and motivated he finishes around Johan because he got such an early start. He seems to have learned how to win at this level which would be an obvious +. If he pitches until he is forty and can win 16 games a year until then he could make it. Or if he can have 2-4 more seasons at 18-20 wins he will only need 14+ wins the last 3-4 years of his career to reach the milestone. 250-280 Wins
Felix - Only 21 and like Garland has been forced to learn at the Big League level which is what it is going to take to reach this mark now a days. Has 18 wins at his young age and if he can stay healthy should be able to approach 30 by years end. If he can stay healthy, which seems to be a big if, he has a great chance. 14 Wins a year until he is 40 and he has it. But If he can throw a few 18-20 win seasons in there he could have 174 wins by the time he turns 30... Health is a big question mark with this youngster... But if he stays healthy it is within his reach. Health is such a question I put him at 185-200 wins... Similar to Pedro
Dontrelle - He is so up and down but he is only 25 and already has 64 wins. Meaning he would need to average 15 wins until he is 40... Dontrelle is inconsistent making it tough for me to think he can do this. But if he can go to a contender with a solid offense he could eventually approach the number. But I don't think he quiet gets there. He seems to have a good time on the mound but his ERA continues to rise and that could spell trouble for him... 170-190
Oswalt - At 29 he only has 104 victories but it is tough to count him out. Should have 120 by years end leaving him with 18 wins for 10 seasons and he has it. But can he pitch that long. Has showed longevity issues as well and not sure he will pitch until then. If he can grab 3-4 more 20 win seasons he has a shot. Put him as close but no cigar 260-280
Peavy - At 25 Peavy already has 5 seasons under his belt and 63 wins. Should be approaching 80 by seasons end. Leaving him 220 behind. Peavy is a stud on the mound and he seems to have figured the league out. If he can stay healthy and pitch with his consistency and stuff he has a chance. He is so young that he will be at 100 at the age of 27 and will have been in the league for 7 full seasons. But only 2 of those seasons did he pitch to form. If he can string 5-6 seasons together where he pitches to form he could have 120 wins in 6 years... bringing him to 220 wins with 13 years under his belt and being at the age of 33.... In 7 years, thinking he pitches to 40, he has to win 80 games bringing him to about 12 a year... I think Peavy is the guy that gets it done. But for this to happen it takes two things... He needs to stay healthy, and he has to get out of San Diego and play for a contender with an offense. If he can do it I put Peavy at 300-315 wins. Add to the list if you have people on your mind.
A guy I left off the list is Carlos Zambrano... mainly because of how he has started this year but he is in Peavy's boat... But he needs to get out of Chicago and it doesn't look like he will...
I think you need to start pitching and learn at the big league level if this feat is ever going to be accomplished again. All these guys did that and have a lot of wins for their young age. Depending on who closes the strongest I think one of these guys get there.
