Paul Leiner
3* Yankees -160
HONDO
Dodgers
Pirates
Trev Rogers
Cubs
DevilRays/White Sox Over 10
Marlins
Arizona
Vegas Experts
Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
M's the better team at 21-22 and look to take advantage of the class drop to get to .500 here/ They have been playing the likes of the Yankees, Angels, Padres and a 1-game makeup in Cleveland better taking three of their last four from Tampa Bay and Seattle. M's starter Baek was roughed up in that Cleveland game but pitched well before that. Seattle has beaten K.C. 14 of the last 20 meetings including 6-of-10 here. SEATTLE is 10-4 against the money line vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season. KANSAS CITY is 18-49 against the money line in home games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 3 seasons and 18-45 against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game over the last 3 seasons.
Play on: Seattle
Vegas Experts
Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
M's the better team at 21-22 and look to take advantage of the class drop to get to .500 here/ They have been playing the likes of the Yankees, Angels, Padres and a 1-game makeup in Cleveland better taking three of their last four from Tampa Bay and Seattle. M's starter Baek was roughed up in that Cleveland game but pitched well before that. Seattle has beaten K.C. 14 of the last 20 meetings including 6-of-10 here. SEATTLE is 10-4 against the money line vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season. KANSAS CITY is 18-49 against the money line in home games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 3 seasons and 18-45 against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game over the last 3 seasons.
Play on: Seattle
Saturday Horse Racing Spot Picks
SPOT PLAYS
For Saturday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (2nd) Drifter's Gold, 4-1
(6th) Kenny Run, 4-1
Belmont Park (6th) Karakorum Tuxedo, 3-1
(7th) R J's Brigade, 10-1
Calder Race Course (2nd) Running Hot, 4-1
(8th) Nine of July, 4-1
Canterbury Park (5th) Magic Mittens, 5-1
(8th) Taco Don, 4-1
Charles Town (3rd) Twentyandfour, 3-1
(10th) Rockzilla, 6-1
Churchill Downs (6th) Yonegwa, 3-1
(9th) Copy My Notes, 5-1
Delaware Park (5th) Jack Be Fast, 3-1
(8th) Stylishly, 8-1
Evangeline Downs (2nd) Stormy Phantom, 9-2
(4th) Fancy Dealer, 10-1
Finger Lakes (8th) He's Got the Moves, 5-1
(9th) Brooke Haley, 3-1
Golden Gate Fields (4th) Purpley, 6-1
(9th) Hola Mamacita, 7-2
Great Lakes Downs (5th) Fightingupastorm, 7-2
(6th) She Aintnopaint, 6-1
Hastings Park (7th) Lethal Grande, 3-1
(10th) Mighty Sweet, 3-1
Hollywood Park (3rd) Lazio (Brz), 7-2
(4th) Swift Winds, 6-1
Indiana Downs (6th) Youcan'tbluff, 4-1
(7th) Storm Passer Bye, 3-1
Lone Star Park (6th) Evident, 10-1
(8th) Scaramouche, 3-1
Louisiana Downs (4th) One Fit, 7-2
(6th) Creole Diamond, 3-1
Monmouth Park (8th) Victory Alleged, 6-1
(9th) Bythebeautifulsea, 3-1
Mountaineer (7th) Sir Simms, 9-2
(8th) Sisyphus, 3-1
Philadelphia Park (5th) Sambumbe (Chi), 7-2
(6th) Execution, 6-1
Pimlico (1st) Delaware River, 7-2
(10th) Scouts Out, 8-1
Prairie Meadows (3rd) Darkly Noon, 7-2
(7th) Hazard's Jimmy, 4-1
River Downs (3rd) Vee Jay, 5-1
(9th) A'fire, 6-1
Suffolk Downs (7th) Midnight Flair, 6-1
(8th) Very Very Sneaky, 3-1
Thistledown (6th) Fire Proof, 9-2
(10th) Proper Direction, 3-1
Woodbine (2nd) Southern Kitten, 7-2
(3rd) Air Farce, 3-1
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
SHEEPSHEAD BAY H. (G2), 8TH-BEL, $150,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1 3/8MT, 4:45 P.M. EDT, 5-26
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 CLIFFROSE (GER) SHEPPARD JONATHAN E VELASQUEZ CORNE 114
2 LA DOLCE VITA HENNIG MARK PRADO E S 115
3 MOON DOLLY (GB) DUGGAN DAVID P GARCIA A 113
4 HOSTESS BOND HAROLD JAMES HILL C 113
5 HONEY RYDER PLETCHER TODD A GOMEZ G K 123
6 FACTUAL CONTENDER TAGG BARCLAY COA E M 115
7 SAFARI QUEEN (ARG) PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 119
8 BARANCELLA (FR) FRANKEL ROBERT J CASTELLANO J J 117
9 WAIT IT OUT CEDANO HERIBERTO SAMYN J L 113
Saturday's $150,000 Sheepshead Bay H. (G2) at Belmont Park features a showdown between the nation's top two distaff turf marathoners -- HONEY RYDER (Lasting Approval) and SAFARI QUEEN (Arg) (Lode) -- who happen to come from the same barn. Trainer Todd Pletcher appears to have the exacta in the 1 3/8-mile event, but in which order? Honey Ryder is the defending champion, but the 123-pound highweight is a miserly 8-5 on the morning line in her first start since returning from Dubai. Considering her impost, her traveling and the equipment change to "blinkers off" here, there are a few too many questions hovering around the gray, so we'll tab the progressive Safari Queen to take the spoils.
Safari Queen raced creditably in her first several U.S. outings, but the Argentinean champion has been a revelation since stepping up in trip. In her last five starts, the chestnut captured the Long Island H. (G2) and La Prevoyante H. (G2), finished runner-up in The Very One H. (G3) at this trip, and rolled to impressive tallies in the Orchid H. (G3) and Bewitch S. (G3) most recently. We're not concerned that she was second in her only previous start at this distance because Safari Queen is really on the upgrade at present. In the Bewitch, Safari Queen earned a career-best 108 BRIS Speed rating, which eclipses everyone in the field except Honey Ryder. Her last two Late Pace numbers (both 106), however, are better than Honey Ryder's. A forwardly placed type, Safari Queen figures to get first run on the favorite and could prove difficult to reel in, especially with her four-pound advantage in the weights. Note that stable rider John Velazquez has decided to stick with Safari Queen.
Honey Ryder will consider this class relief, as she is exiting a pair of races versus top males. The six-year-old made an eye-catching late move in the Gulfstream Park Breeders' Cup Turf S. (G1) and just failed, beaten a neck by Jambalaya (Langfuhr), who came right back to win the Pan American H. (G3). At Nad al Sheba last time out, Honey Ryder never made an impact against many of the world's best turf horses, checking in 11th in the Dubai Sheema Classic (UAE-G1). She's much better than that, and a return to female company could get her back on track. If she runs up to her best, she'll repeat here. With the blinkers off, though, she may be a little too lackadaisical early in a paceless affair. Garrett Gomez will return to the saddle.
The Bobby Frankel-trained BARANCELLA (Fr) (Acatenango) gamely chased Safari Queen in the Bewitch, racking up her eighth career stakes placing. Although she hasn't managed to win a stakes yet, the chestnut has come close in such major events as the E.P. Taylor S. (Can-G1) (2005 and 2006) and the Queen Elizabeth II Invitational Challenge Cup S. (G1) (2004). Barancella was also a rallying third in the 2005 Sheepshead Bay. She promises to crack the top three once again, but we don't envision her upstaging Team Pletcher.
LA DOLCE VITA (Quiet American) is another who has tasted defeat at the hands of Safari Queen, having finished third in the Orchid two back. Last time out, the Mark Hennig mare cut back in trip when taking the 1 1/16-mile Hollywood Wildcat Breeders' Cup H. at Calder. La Dolce Vita takes a class hike in this spot while stepping up in distance, but in view of her recent 107 Late Pace figure, she rates an intriguing outsider at 10-1. CLIFFROSE (Ger) (Monsun) has respectable German form to her credit, but she has been well beaten in both of her starts outside her homeland. On the plus side, the dark bay is eligible to move forward off her American debut for Jonathan Sheppard, in which she finished midpack in a deep allowance, and she could add value to the exotics at a hefty 30-1.
FACTUAL CONTENDER (Thunder Puddles) looms as the controlling speed, and she used her early pace to good effect when scoring in the Destiny Dance S. in her latest venture. This is an entirely different order of magnitude, however, and we'd be surprised if she hangs around for the finish. HOSTESS (Chester House) couldn't catch Factual Contender on that occasion, and her task won't get any easier here. WAIT IT OUT (Swain [Ire]) has already been drubbed by Safari Queen. MOON DOLLY (GB) (Kris S.) trailed badly throughout in the Destiny Dance, and she needs another outing to re-establish her credentials.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-SAFARI QUEEN (Arg)
2nd-HONEY RYDER
3rd-BARANCELLA (Fr)
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
LOUISVILLE H. (G3), 10TH-CD, $150,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/2MT, 5:51 P.M. EDT, 5-26
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 MURCH PITTS HELEN MARTINEZ W 113
2 ALWAYS FIRST (GB) VOSS THOMAS H ALBARADO R J 118
3 I BELIEVE IN ME MCGEE PAUL HERNANDEZ B J J 113
4 TRANSDUCTION GOLD GLENNEY JOHN BRIDGMOHAN S X 114
5 HOTSTUFANTHENSOME POINTER NORMAN R BEJARANO R 117
6 CLOUDY'S KNIGHT KIRBY FRANK J GUIDRY M 116
7 LOUVE DES REVES (IRE) BIANCONE PATRICK L LEPAROUX JULIEN 111
8 ROYAL ASSAULT MCKEEVER ANDREW CASTANON J L 112
9 RAMAZUTTI PLETCHER TODD A BOREL C H 115
10 DRILLING FOR OIL MCPEEK KENNETH G DESORMEAUX K J 114
11 FRI GUY ROMANS DALE MENA M 113
12 EMBOSSED (IRE) O'CALLAGHAN NIALL M MELANCON L 115
A full field of 12 turf runners is set for the 1 1/2-mile Louisville H. (G3), and CLOUDY'S KNIGHT (Lord Avie) will attempt to make amends for a fifth-place finish as the favorite in the Elkhorn S. (G3) at Keeneland. The seven-year-old gelding was hurt by a very tedious pace in the Elkhorn, and there's more speed in this field. Cloudy's Knight has really come on this season, netting BRIS Late Pace ratings of 109, 104 and 107 in his last three starts, and he won't face the stiffest competition here. We'll look for Cloudy's Knight to rebound with a victory over the lawn at Churchill Downs in his first start since rejoining Frank Kirby.
DRILLING FOR OIL (Giant's Causeway) is making good progress for Kenny McPeek, and he's a candidate to break through with his first stakes victory. Runner-up by a nose at this distance in his seasonal bow, the four-year-old colt captured a 1 3/8-mile allowance next out and made his stakes bow in the Pan American H. (G3), earning a 103 Late Pace rating after passing rivals in the stretch for fifth. He made his second stakes attempt in the Elkhorn and came up a length short in third, earning a 107 Speed rating and triple-digit E2 and Late Pace numbers. The improving chestnut looms as a serious threat from just off the pace.
ALWAYS FIRST (GB) (Barathea [Ire]) exits a very solid showing in the Elkhorn, just missing by a neck with his late rally, and the Tommy Voss pupil appears to be in career-best form right now. He's got the hot-riding Robby Albarado in the saddle, and the late-running gelding could offer a challenge for it all in his Churchill debut.
HOTSTUFANTHENSOME (Awesome Again) has finished second in two starts at 12 furlongs, including the Pan American two attempts back, and won the 1 3/8-mile Mac Diarmida H. (G3) last year. While the versatile gelding can handle a wide range of distances, the Norman Pointer trainee has shown a tendency to come up short recently, finishing second in five of his last nine starts. We'll use him on the bottom of some exotics.
LOUVE DES REVES (Ire) (Sadler's Wells) is another one to consider for the top three. A five-year-old mare, the previous French runner made a smashing U.S. debut in a Derby Day allowance/optional claimer, winning the 1 1/16-mile event going away by 1 1/2 lengths while registering a whopping 119 Late Pace rating. Trainer Patrick Biancone isn't afraid to run females against males, with the filly Danzon (Royal Academy) finishing an excellent third in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1) on Derby Day, and Louves des Reves looks very promising. The stakes-placed mare could make an impact if she handles the added ground.
RAMAZUTTI (Honor Grades) finished second by a neck in last year's Louisville, and the Todd Pletcher representative recorded a nice score in the 11-furlong Mac Diarmida H. (G2) earlier this season. However, Ramazutti has failed to hit the board in his last three outings, and he isn't well drawn in post 9. We still respect his chances under Calvin Borel, but we'll try to beat him. EMBOSSED (Ire) (Mark of Esteem [Ire]) is one-for-two at Churchill and exits a couple of solid efforts versus graded stakes rivals at Santa Anita and Sam Houston. The Grade 3 winner has the class to be a factor, but he's stuck in post 12 and isn't the most consistent performer.
I BELIEVE IN ME (Giant's Causeway) will be a forward factor in his stakes debut, and he exits a sharp allowance score at Keeneland for Paul McGee. While he's bred for the distance, the four-year-old owns no experience past nine furlongs in his racing career. We'll just watch to see how he fares. FRI GUY (Theatrical [Ire]) must overcome post 11, and he'll probably face too much pressure on the front end to be effective.
TRANSDUCTION GOLD (Formal Gold) is probably more comfortable over a little less ground, and we can't envision the speedy gelding leading all the way here. MURCH (Mr. Greeley) will likely find this company too difficult. ROYAL ASSAULT (Kris S.), who never factored in his return from an 18-month layoff last time out, didn't run well in his only previous turf start and would be a huge surprise here.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-CLOUDY'S KNIGHT
2nd-DRILLING FOR OIL
3rd-ALWAYS FIRST (GB)
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
HANSHIN CUP H. (G3), 9TH-AP, $100,000, 3YO/UP, 1M, 5:00 P.M. CDT, 5-26
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 THRONG PLETCHER TODD A CAMPBELL J M 114
2 FORT PRADO BLOCK CHRIS PEREZ E E 117
3 BUDDY GOT EVEN MAKER REBECCA RAZO E JR 116
4 STAR BY DESIGN HAZELTON RICHARD P SILVA C H 114
5 CONNECTIONS DINI MIKE FERRER J C 114
6 GOULDINGS GREEN REINSTEDLER ANTHONY STERLING L J JR 120
7 LEWIS MICHAEL CATALANO WAYNE M DOUGLAS R R 118
8 SPOTSGONE FIRES WILLIAM H FIRES E 113
9 BARBICAN HARTY EOIN JOHN K 113
10 HIGH EXPECTATIONS JANKS CHRISTINE K EMIGH C A 113
11 PURIM PROCTOR THOMAS F THERIOT H J II 118
A competitive edition of the $100,000 Hanshin Cup H. (G3) is on tap for Saturday with a deep field of 11. LEWIS MICHAEL (Rahy), who has finished second versus graded rivals in his last two starts over the Polytrack at Keeneland, is the slight 7-2 morning-line favorite in the one-mile event over Arlington Park's Polytrack, but we'll tab PURIM (Dynaformer) for top honors.
Turf horses typically have little trouble adapting to the synthetic Polytrack, and Purim exits a first-class effort in perhaps the most difficult turf race to date this season, finishing third by only three parts of a length in the Maker's Mark Mile S. (G2) at Keeneland. Grade 1 winners Kip Deville (Kipling) and Showing Up (Strategic Mission) filled the first two positions, and fifth-placer Sky Conqueror (Sky Classic) won the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S. (G1) next out while sixth-placer Remarkable News (Ven) (Chayim) took the Dixie S. (G2). Purim will be making his first start on the synthetic footing, but the Tom Proctor runner has proven very adept over different surfaces, winning Grade 3 races on both turf and dirt. The outside post shouldn't hurt him in the one-turn mile event, and jockey Jamie Theriot has been riding very well this spring. Purim owns good tactical speed and should be able to settle into the perfect stalking trip before offering a winning rally.
GOULDINGS GREEN (Charismatic) has been training forwardly for his return, and the six-year-old won his first start back last year off a lengthy layoff. Winner of the Turfway Park Fall Championship S. (G3) two starts back over the Polytrack, the Anthony Reinstedler charge owns an excellent 5-4-1-0 mark at a mile. Larry Sterling Jr. will pick up the mount, and Gouldings Green merits serious respect.
BUDDY GOT EVEN (Stephen Got Even) also likes an all-weather track, winning five of eight starts for conditioner Rebecca Maker, and he exits a game score at Arlington three weeks back at this distance. The late runner owns eye-opening BRIS Late Pace ratings of 113 and 111 in recent starts, and we wouldn't be surprised to see him challenge for it all in the stretch.
Lewis Michael, who comes from top connections Frank Calabrese and Wayne Catalano, is an obvious threat for it all. He exits a non-threatening second to Silent Name (Jpn) (Sunday Silence) in the seven-furlong Commonwealth Breeders' Cup S. (G2) and also took the place in the Perryville S. (G3) last October at Keeneland. The stakes-winning four-year-old must avoid getting caught up chasing a fast pace with the speed in this field, but we can't dismiss his chances in this competitive heat. THRONG (Silver Deputy) looks like a pace factor from the rail. The Todd Pletcher trainee missed by only a nose to Buddy Got Even in the Timeless Native S. last out, and he's always run well over all-weather tracks (3-1-2-0). He could last a long way under Jesse Campbell.
FORT PRADO (El Prado [Ire]), a turf stakes winner two weeks ago at Arlington, will be making his first start over a synthetic track. The Chris Block-trained six-year-old has the class to be a factor if he handles the transition, but a one-turn mile probably isn't his optimal distance. BARBICAN (A.P. Indy) exits a commendable allowance score going nine furlongs at Keeneland, but we'll give him a race at the graded level.
CONNECTIONS (Unbridled) merits consideration for the exotics with a two-for-two mark over synthetic tracks, but the six-year-old gelding will face a stiff class check. HIGH EXPECTATIONS (Peaks and Valleys) enters in good form for Christine Janks, but this class hike may prove too difficult. STAR BY DESIGN (Distorted Humor) will likely show speed in the stretch out, but he'll have a difficult time sustaining it. SPOTSGONE (Bright Launch) will need to improve significantly to challenge.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-PURIM
2nd-GOULDINGS GREEN
3rd-BUDDY GOT EVEN
Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for Saturday, May 26
RACE ONE
Saturday starts off with a very difficult turf contest. We'll give a slight edge to the Art Sherman-trained Ginny Winner. 'GINNY was a well-bet disappointment earlier in her career, losing several times as the favorite, but may finally be coming around. She closed steadily off slow fractions for third last time out and arguably ran her best race in her only grass start last December. DOUBLOON CITY tried two turns and turf May 11, a combination that resulted in a second place finish. A repeat of that race makes her formidable. SUMMER JADE was three lengths behind 'DOUBLOON while racing wide the entire trip.
RACE TWO
PEACE ACCORD looks like a timely claim by John Sadler. He's been in the money all five starts, including a nose loss this meeting. 'ACCORD is drawn well, reunited with Corey Nakatani and appears to be sitting on his maiden victory. HIGH COMMAND was competitive in his only outing and should benefit from the experience. Trainer Richard Matlow has an incredible 7-1 return on investment for his second time starters. DR. OLIVER has trained decently for his debut and attracts top rider Victor Espinoza.
RACE THREE
LAZIO dropped in class and responded with a game, highly rated victory. His confidence level is elevated as he now takes a triple jump. He should be able to race up close on what figures to be a slow pace. CARELESS CANDIDATE was claimed by a high-percentage barn (Frank Monteleone) and steps up in class despite being away since February. His style fits this elongated sprint to a tee. SWEDISH RADAR hasn't raced in a year, but is perfect at this distance. If he's fit enough, he'll make his presence felt.
RACE FOUR LORD STRIPES showed promise in March with a fast closing second place finish at Gulfstream Park. He may be ready to return to the form that saw him go undefeated in his native Argentina. Corey Nakatani takes the call for high-percentage trainer Richard Dutrow. Nakatani has had a slow start this meet, but look for his business to pick up following a recent agent change. SWIFT WINDS ran surprisingly well against the likes of Epic Power and Running Free in the recent Khaled Stakes. If he can put two together, he's got a chance. SEMINOLE NATIVE raced in tight quarters through the stretch, yet was beaten just a length for all the money. He'll race coupled with STRAIGHT RUN.
RACE FIVE
C'MON TIGER won three of his four starts in this country including a facile score in his Santa Anita finale. His workouts have been sensational (1:11 1/5, 59 2/5) since and he should add another notch on his gun belt. RACKATEER was a distant third to Fairbanks in the Grade 3 Tokyo City Handicap in his last start. The Frankel trainee is very consistent and should complete the exacta. AWESOME GEM was no match for Lava Man in the Big Cap and will appreciate the drop in class. He beat older runners at Oak Tree.
RACE SIX
GO DAWG flopped as the favorite in her first Cushion Track race but can rebound here. She lost a lot of ground racing five wide and faces a below average maiden special weight field. TABARIN has talent in her family tree, but may need more distance before showing her best. Keep a close eye on this one for future reference. ENDURA returned from a year layoff to finish third for a $50,000 tag. She moves up in class in name only, as the caliber of talent in this field is around the $50,000 range.
RACE SEVEN
LIKE RUNNING WATER lays it all on the line in the afternoon. He takes a one-level class dip and draws the best post, giving him the nod in a contentious heat. STYLIN CAT was last seen winning an allowance race at Bay Meadows in March. This drop into claimers is exactly the right move by John Sadler. DENIED is still competitive at age nine. He has an impressive record of 22 in-the-money finishes from only 27 starts.
RACE EIGHT
COBALT BLUE was a Kentucky Derby hopeful until he was derailed in the Illinois Derby. He's regrouped since then and has a spectacular string of recent drills for Doug O'Neill. Expect a monster race. LEESIDER was ultra game in capturing the restricted Snow Chief Stakes opening week. He's improving every start, but this will mark his first start against open company. AWESOME GAMBLER is the upsetter of note. Though moving from a maiden victory into a stakes, 'GAMBLER put in a devastating stretch run and may be up to the task.
RACE NINE
SALAH'S JEWELS is related to a host of multi winners, trained well, and hails from a barn that does well with newcomers. She'll be steered by top apprentice Joe Talamo. LAUREN C. was runnerup in both her starts for Juan Garcia. She seems a bit of a trial horse, but her speed makes her a factor. MY MALOOF ROCKER pressed the pace in a strong race before tiring late. Expect improvement and a fair betting price.
Best Bet-PEACE ACCORD (2)
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Churchill Downs
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Analysis:: by Jill Byrne
Race 1 -
BUSTY MISS (7) was second as the favorite in her debut after breaking poorly from the inside post. The experience of that race plus the better outside draw should move her forward today. POSSE VALLEY (1) comes in from Lone Star Park where she was fourth as the favorite against maiden allowance company. She faces a similar group for a claiming price today and this Asmussen stable runner cannot be left out. HONEST TO BETSY (5) is a first time starter bred to be very precocious, and she has good morning works and Leparoux aboard.
7-1-5
Race 2 -
BEST YEARS (2) has struggled against allowance company since breaking his maiden and is now dropped into a conditioned claimer. He may not have handled the sloppy track or turf, and the combination of the class drop and a different surface look positive for him. MR BLACKSTONE (6) has been closing at this level in recent starts and gets added distance and some speed in today’s race to help his cause. QUICK PAY (7) has shown the ability at this level on Polytrack and should a strong contender from just off the pace today.
2-6-7
Race 3 -
HALLOWED HEAT (5) was very wide when he finished evenly in his first start for a claiming price last out. The second and third place finishers in that race came back to win. LONG EGO (8) showed some speed with the addition of blinkers before he faded late in his second start. He has continued to train sharply and shortens up slightly today. ROBYN’S DREAM (4) adds blinkers and drops down a peg on the claiming ladder. He always shows speed and, with the equipment change, could forget to stop.
5-8-4
Race 4 -
BOLD START (3) has been holding his own in stakes company lately and looks tough to go against as the logical favorite today. The McPeek barn has been doing very well at the meet and has found a nice confidence booster for this colt today. MOUNT WILTON (4) is undefeated and may have got away with one in his debut for a claiming price. His subsequent allowance win was strong and he has the tactical speed to be in a good position early. MR. UNSTOPPABLE (6) returns to the main track after showing little on the turf course in a small stake in Texas. He and MAKEITHAPENCAPTAIN (1) look to be the speed threats.
3-4-6
Race 5 -
THUNDER AND BELLE (3) was a sharp winner at this level last out when she forced strong early fractions. She has two wins over sloppy tracks at Churchill and must prove she can duplicate those efforts on fast footing. RAPIDIAN (4) takes another class drop here and must be considered off her best form. She is more effective when she can track the pace and should get a nice trip today with speed to her inside. STITCHY WOMAN (6) picks up Bejarano as she returns to Churchill off two good performances out of state. She has the tactical speed to be close to the top pick from the break.
3-4-6
Race 6 -
EATON’S GIFT (8) is a debut runner from the Roman's stable with a top juvenile pedigree and blazing morning workouts to back it up. He draws well in post 8 and with a recent bullet gate drill indicates that he’s ready to go first out. GERONI (5) was making up some ground late in his debut and has come back with a fast local workout for his effort. DEPUTY DANCE (6) raced a bit greenly down the lane and missed by a head in his debut at Keeneland. YONEGWA (4) finished in front of Geroni when he showed speed in his debut and has worked well since.
8-5-6
Race 7 -
LE CHATEAU (1) was overmatched in the Grade II Fairgrounds Oaks after she had scored an impressive maiden win. She is training well for her first local main track effort and does not meet a particularly strong field of first level allowance fillies. HUMBLE JANET (2) was claimed by the Asmussen stable out of an easy victory as the favorite at Oaklawn. Her last two races are good enough to make her a factor with this group. PHILIPS PRIDE (6) has been racing on the turf and Polytrack recently and looks like the best speed today. She has some good local works and could take this field gate-to-wire.
1-2-6
Race 8 -
SANS REWARD (2) made her stateside debut and her first start since October in a strong running of the Appalachian Stakes at Keeneland. She made up some ground late behind soft early fractions that day and figures to improve off that start. BALLET PACIFICA (10) has not raced since September when she was a good third in Arlington’s Grade III behind eventual Grade I winner Vacare. She hails from the powerful "French Connection" of Biancone and Leparoux and is likely to be the fan’s choice and the one to beat. READY TO TALK (12) must overcome her outside post on this short run to the first turn, but has the speed to get away from the gate and get over quickly. But there is speed to her inside and she could get pushed from the start. MY CHICKADEE (11) is versatile running well on any surface and can be in a perfect stalking trip under Robby Albarado.
2-10-12
Race 9 -
CHIEF EXPORT (3) returns to Churchill where he has run his best races by far. He was second here in the fall to multiple stakes winner Straight Line and his previous efforts over this main track resulted in three wins and a nose defeat. PIETY (7) comes into this allowance optional claimer on a three-race win streak at Fair Grounds. He had shown little prior to those races, so he must prove he can perform outside of New Orleans. CROSSWORD (1) has been running well at this condition and finally catches a race with some speed, which could help him make up ground late
3-7-1
Race 10 -
A very well matched group of turf marathoners lines up for today’s Grade III Louisville Handicap and a case could be made for more than half the field. CLOUDY’S KNIGHT (6) is a classy veteran with versatility to win at today's distance or shorter. He has been the victim of finding races without much pace, but gets a better setup today. ALWAYS FIRST (2) just missed last out in his first start of the year and figures to improve off that effort. He, like the top pick, is proven at the distance and in graded stakes company. DRILLING FOR OIL (10) is a rapidly improving horse who is a viable option in here at potentially good odds. RAMAZUTTI (9) did not show his customary speed last out on good ground, but is better when allowed to be close early.
6-2-10
Race 11 -
NIP IT (7) just failed to hold on in her first start since November and with a slight improvement off that effort can be a strong contender right back at this level today. BERNHARDT (4) stopped when facing winners at Mountaineer as the favorite last out but looks capable of rebounding against this conditioned claiming field today. THE COLOR RED (1) drops back in distance and down in class for the Mike Maker barn, which has been placing their horses well at the meet.
7-4-1
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Belmont Park
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By Art Gropper
BEST BET: Lemon Law (3rd race)
First Race
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1. River Mountain Rd 2. Sir Jackie 3. Wood Winner
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RIVER MOUNTAIN RD is fresh 7 weeks since the worst Beyer speed figure on his form. Management is outstanding with winning runners off a short break and the bullet workout for this suggests he's ready for a huge bounceback performance. SIR JACKIE was claimed for nearly 3 times this price when facing much tougher than this at Gulfstream Park. WOOD WINNER gets a big rider switch and owns a Beyer Top on the Belmont main track; primed on turf for this.
Second Race
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1. Perusal 2. Joppa Flat's 3. Runaway Banjo
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PERUSAL flew home like a wild horse on the Keeneland Polytrack and that surface has provided many recent Belmont Park winners. Elmont bullet work May 12 suggests he should eat up this new surface. JOPPA FLAT'S chased a runaway winner in last and has fired well in 4 straight, handling a variety of racing surfaces. Finished a close 5th in BEL Sept. unveiling. RUNAWAY BANJO is working strongly for debut and is a full sibling to 208K turfer Major Idea.
Third Race
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1. Lemon Law 2. Tiverton 3. Sea of Trees
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LEMON LAW lost 2 stomach-churning photos and the latest was extremely tough to take as the winner nailed him right on the line. Gomez, who rode the horse who beat him at Keeneland, shows up here, and anything close to last pair should get it done. TIVERTON needed his last start when a close 3rd in a key race. Bullet work since 5 weeks fresh and seeks to make amends from favored loss in same spot in 2005 here. SEA OF TREES made 4-year-old debut over the Inner Turf course and just missed; must include.
Fourth Race
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1. Mr Bibbs 2. Jets Only 3. Any Which Way
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MR BIBBS has been training all year at Penn National in preparation for New York-bred unveiling. Sibling to 286K Oh So Fabulous is under the handling of a masterful 1st-time starter trainer. JETS ONLY (full to 113K Air Race) has been working steadily for unveiling. ANY WHICH WAY has experience, speed and the rail. Drilled a Monmouth Park bullet for return.
Fifth Race
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1. Foose 2. Thunder Minister 3. Kiss the Dice
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In a race which seems to be lacking early pace, 1st-time turfer FOOSE gets the call to potentially steal it. Anything close to his Beyers from this year would win this and sire is getting a solid amount of 1st-lawn winners (16%). Seeks to make amends from 3-10 loss on dirt for the top New York trainer in 2007. THUNDER MINISTER made up more than 18 lengths in the final half mile of turf debut and figures a handful if he can break a little sharper for this. KISS THE DICE is much better on grass and exits a key race as the place horse won back with a 99 Beyer. Figures for a late explosion.
Sixth Race
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1. Wave the Baton 2. Karakorum Tuxedo 3. Bon Marie
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WAVE THE BATON fired 2 giant turf sprints at Saratoga last summer and has been freshened up for return with the multiple-win rider up, helping the confidence level of snapping a 2005 winless drought. This appears to be his winning spot. KARAKORUM TUXEDO was much closer to the early pace than usual in turf debut and was game to the wire, losing a 3-horse photo; too sharp to dismiss. BON MARIE needed his last start and is eligible to improve upon middle-moving return.
Seventh Race
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1. First Defence 2. Shone 3. Aaron's Classic
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FIRST DEFENCE makes 3-year-old debut, returning to the surface of his career Top Beyer speed figure and 8-length laugher last fall. Finished 2nd to Kentucky Derby 12th-place finisher Zanjero (G2-placed) when facing winners and has been working like he's ready to explode. SHONE wanted no parts of a wet track in last, but was super in defeat over the winter vs. recent G3 Flashy Bull (105 Beyer) and Bound Notebook (101 here Wed.). Projects to be rallying into a hot pace. AARON'S CLASSIC was used on the lead in a key race (place FPRIVATE "TYPE=PICT;ALT="108 Beyer in next start). Remember nose loss in 2005 here to Master Command and the works suggest he's ready for a peak performance right off the bench.
Eighth Race
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1. Honey Ryder 2. Safari Queen 3. Barancella
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Looks like a battle of the Todd Pletcher-trained female lawn mowers. Defending champion HONEY RYDER was awesome in her lone 2007 United States start vs. the boys, nosed at today's distance by Jambayla, who won a next out G3 (99 Beyer). Raced wide for a 5M pot overseas and receives the same freshening as last year's triumph. Main concern is regular rider and win rider for the stable, Velazquez, sides with SAFARI QUEEN. She was just OK in 2 prior Belmont starts on the Widener course in 2006, but has done little wrong since G3 loss here last fall, winning 4-of-5, including three graded stakes. BARANCELLA owns a BEL Inner turf victory and finished a close 3rd in this event in 2005. Has been within range of the top pair in the recent past.
Ninth Race
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1. Dantastic 2. Saturday's Cat 3. Raynicks Fan
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DANTASTIC was too eager on the lead in latest and it cost him late. The race he exits looks a lot better since the winner scored right back in allowance company (78 Beyer) next out. New colt on the green is out of a turf-winning dam (68K sod). SATURDAY'S CAT was game in defeat from post 11 in this same spot 3 weeks ago and sibling to 320K turfer Cozy Blues always seems to fire; hard to leave out. RAYNICKS FAN finished evenly in career debut, but is bred both sides for lawn (out of a 152K grass dam); learning experience can pay dividends.
__________________
Calder
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Analysis:: by Ron Nicoletti
12:50PM
Race 1 -
6 I'M RAVEN, a hard luck daughter of Stormy Atlantic, plunges to the $16K level on the dirt after a pair of troubled trips vs. better on the lawn. Trainer Norm Pointer, 26% with the turf-to-dirt move, has leading apprentice Sally Mitchellhill named to ride. 5 TWICEASBEAUTIFUL should improve after chasing the pace and finishing a distant third in her career debut at this level and distance. 1 KARONS RUNNER is turning back to 6 furlongs after chasing the pace and tiring vs. similar in a 2-turn mile.
6-5-1
Race 2 -
9 SOUND CHECK drops, and turns back to 7 1/2 furlongs after dueling for the lead 3-wide and getting beat 2 1/2 lengths vs. $40K claimers in his local turf debut at a mile and a sixteenth. 4 RUNNING HOT, sharp in a pair on the Gulfstream turf, will try $32K claimers after losing his best chance when he broke awkwardly vs. $16K optional claimers here last out. 10 DOMENICK'S DUNE, much improved with the addition of blinkers, turns back after saving ground and finishing sixth - only a half-length behind Sound Check last out. 3 SPIRIT SOARS will face winners after drawing clear to defeat $32K maidens in his Gulfstream turf finale.
9-4-10-3
Race 3 -
4 BLUE PEPSI LODGE, a stakes-placed son of Pioneering, drops to a level where he should be able to flaunt his tactical speed. Trainer Steve Standridge has Elvis Trujillo in the saddle again. 3 BOW OUT will try $25K claimers after posting by far the best last-race speed figure (87) when finishing second in a swift $12.5K starter allowance test at the distance. 2 KELLYS RX is stepping up the competition with the ideal stalking style needed to reel in what should be a hot & heavy pace scenario. Jeffrey Sanchez rides.
4-3-2
Race 4 - THE SARA'S SUCCESS
1 SILVER CHARADES, in an entry with equally sharp stakes-placed 1A SNOW CONE, turns back after rallying 3-wide to defeat $25K optional claimers here at a mile. The biggest challenge for the Marty Wolfson-trained entry should come from uncoupled stablemate 8 EL BANK ROBBER. The daughter of Eltish, a stakes winner at a mile and a sixteenth, stretches out after rallying to finish second in the 5-furlong Cool Air last out. 5 SILVERSIDER, beaten a length, at 24-1, in the Hollywood Wildcat here on Apr. 28, stretches out after steadying twice and still managing to finish third behind El Bank Robber, as the favorite, in the Cool Air. 6 MS. WONDER WOMAN is turning back after setting the pace and yielding late to finish third behind Silver Charades at a mile.
1-1A-8-5-6
Race 5 -
4 MAIN STREET GIRL, the only participant with previous experience, stretches out to 5 furlongs after finishing a troubled second (steadied turn) in her $40K debut at 4 1/2 furlongs. 3 MAGDALENA'S CHASE is a daughter of Cape Town who shows a couple of sharp half-mile drills, and a 3-furlong bullet, in preparation for the debut. Trainer Ed Plesa Jr., 20% with his 2-year-olds, has go-to jock Roimes Chirinos at the controls. 8 CHEROKEE BEAUTY, from Calder Hall Of Fame trainer Frank Gomez's barn, may have tipped her hand when she worked a 5-furlong bullet in preparation for this assignment. 7 CATCH FIRE, 1 of 2 from trainer Manny Tortora, has trained consistently over the track in preparation for the debut.
4-3-8-7
Race 6 -
12 CRUDEN BAY comes off an eventful trip from Post 11 in which he stumbled at the start, was forced wide into the first turn, and beaten only a nose vs. similar at 7 1/2 furlongs. 4 GONE STRAIGHT is stepping up after recovering from a troubled start to finish a half-length behind second race participant Running Hot in a $50K maiden-claimer across town. Use the earlier race as a handicapping guide before you bet this son of Straight Man. 8 SARATOGA MATT is hoping for a clean trip after being stopped three times before finishing seventh behind Cruden Bay last out. 2 HEAVYWEIGHT is looking to land the knockout punch after coming within a neck of springing an 18-1 upset at 5 furlongs on the Gulfstream turf.
12-4-8-2
Race 7 -
1 TIGER JEN, a winner of 50% of her races this year (6-3-0-2), stretches out after defeating similar here at 7 furlongs. 2 FAN FRIENDLY is stretching out to a mile and a sixteenth after following a " two-lifetime" score in a 1-turn mile at Gulfstream with a "three-lifetime" score here in a 2-turn mile. 5 SUMMIT QUEEN, the only previous winner at the distance (6-1-0-1), is stretching out after finishing a troubled second behind Fan Friendly at a mile (steadied 1st turn).
1-2-5
Race 8 -
1 WILD 'N' WAKI GUY will face $40K maidens after chasing the pace and finishing third vs. special weight competition in his Tampa turf debut at the distance. 9 SHEIKH is hoping to make amends after finishing second and being placed fourth after drifting out during the stretch run of his local return at the distance. 11 NINTH OF JULY returns on the Twenty Sixth of May after hitting the board in three consecutive 5-furlong turf sprints during Oct. & Nov. of 2006. Trainer Phil Gleaves has the sprint specialist training consistently for this assignment. 6 DISTINCTIVE RIDGE is turning back after opening and squandering a 4-length lead vs. $25K maidens at a mile.
1-9-11-6
Race 9 -
3 HOWDY PARDNER is the logical choice to put this condition in the bank after dueling for the lead and finishing second in his local return at the distance. However, his fondness for finishing second here is a concern (15-1-7-2). 1 MATTINGLY is stretching out to 7 furlongs after bobbling at the start, steadying on the backstretch, and finishing third vs. $10K conditioned claimers at three-quarters. 5 CORRYVILLE, fourth behind Howdy Pardner here on Apr. 27, is stretching out after stalking the pace and finishing fourth again vs. similar at three-quarters of a mile. 8 WESTCOASTESTCOAST, a previous winner at the distance (6-1-0-1), figures after closing late to get beat 3 1/2 lengths vs. similar at 6 furlongs.
3-1-5-8
Race 10 -
2 LOUIS LE GRANDE drops into this $12.5K claimer after two sharp outings at Tampa in which he followed his 'much the best' score vs. $10K "three-lifetime" claimers with a well-meant third vs. first-level allowance competition. 5 MANIFESTANTE is hoping to get away from the gate in a timely fashion after acting up at the start prior to finishing third vs. similar at 6 1/2 furlongs. 7 JUST ADD RUM, a 2-time winner at this specialized distance (7-2-1-0), turns back after coming up empty vs. similar in his local return at a mile & 70 yards.
2-5-7
Race 11 -
6 CHIARA is hoping to finally notch a victory at the distance (10-0-4-2) after two solid performances at 5 1/2 furlongs in which she defeated first-level optional claimers at Gulfstream, and was second here at this level in her last start. 4 REASON TO REJOICE is stretching out to 6 furlongs after setting the pace and giving way late to finish third behind Chiara last out. 1 BANDA VICTORIA should offer more in her second start back from an 8-month layoff after rallying late to finish fourth behind Chiara and Reason To Rejoice.
6-4-1
Race 12 -
8 LUCKILY will try $5K claimers at 6 1/2 furlongs after beating $8K claimers at Tampa at a mile and 7 furlongs, respectively. 4 LADYDOCTORSFORTUNE is stretching out an additional half-furlong after holding on gamely to defeat this caliber of competition at three-quarters of a mile. 7 AILEEN, a 3-time winner over this surface, stretches out after breaking slowly and finishing fourth behind Ladydoctorsfortune in their recent clash at three-quarters of a mile.
BEST BET: RACE 6 - CRUDEN BAY
LONG SHOT: RACE 8 - DISTINCTIVE RIDGE
8-4-7
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TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Today's Free Race: Pimlico for Saturday May 26, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Pimlico
Pimlico - Race #1 - Post: 1:10pm
Choice Plays:
#3 DELAWARE RIVER (ML=7/2)
#6 PLEASE THE CROWD (ML=3/1)
DELAWARE RIVER - Don't often see a positive return on investment like +127. This rider/handler pair has done well together over the last 12 months. Rode this animal on Apr 19th and Karamanos is right back in the irons today. I like when a racer wins after shipping in from elsewhere. It shows that they really like the track here. I'll take this gelding to win again. This one has increased his Equibase speed figs in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is extremely important. Just look at his latest speed rating, 115. That one fits well in this field. PLEASE THE CROWD - Gelding looks like the lone speed here. He may turn the race into a procession. This thoroughbred coming off a sharp performance in the last thirty days is a strong challenger in my opinion. Finished ahead of today's favorite in the last race at Pimlico. Can do the same again right here.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SHARPS ISLAND (ML=5/2), #5 SWAGGER STICK (ML=4/1), #4 TAM'S TERMS (ML=6/1)
SHARPS ISLAND - A sustainer like this one needs an early battle to set things up and he isn't likely to get one in this one. 108/103/92, are the decreasing Equibase speed figs for this pony. Don't feel this horse will do much running in today's race. That last fig was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's class rating. SWAGGER STICK - This horse hasn't shown too much in the last pair of affairs. TAM'S TERMS - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last couple of outings. The speed rating last time out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's event. Mark this horse as a vulnerable contender.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #3 DELAWARE RIVER on top if we're getting at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,6]
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Guaranteed Pick: Tom Freese
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins May 26 2007 7:10PM
Prediction: over
Reason: We like a high scoring game here as both starting pitchers Ramon Ortiz for Minnesota and Tomo Ohka for Toronto have more walks than strikeouts in their last 3 starts. That means plenty of baserunners and plenty of runs. The Blue Jays are 7-3 Over as road dogs of $110 to $150. The Twins are 3-0-1 Over the last 4 starts made by Ortiz. 5* Play On 'Over' (Ortiz vs. Ohka)
Guaranteed Pick: Tom Freese
Game: Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 2007 3:55PM
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Reason: Los Angeles starter Mark Hendrickson has been terrible of late allowing 16 runs in his last 17 innings of work. The Cubs Carlos Zambrano has a 1.24 ERA in 4 career starts against the Dodgers. The Cubs are 6-2 in Game 2 of a road series this year. 5* Play On Chicago (Zambrano vs. Hendrickson)
3* Yankees -160
HONDO
Dodgers
Pirates
Trev Rogers
Cubs
DevilRays/White Sox Over 10
Marlins
Arizona
Vegas Experts
Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
M's the better team at 21-22 and look to take advantage of the class drop to get to .500 here/ They have been playing the likes of the Yankees, Angels, Padres and a 1-game makeup in Cleveland better taking three of their last four from Tampa Bay and Seattle. M's starter Baek was roughed up in that Cleveland game but pitched well before that. Seattle has beaten K.C. 14 of the last 20 meetings including 6-of-10 here. SEATTLE is 10-4 against the money line vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season. KANSAS CITY is 18-49 against the money line in home games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 3 seasons and 18-45 against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game over the last 3 seasons.
Play on: Seattle
Vegas Experts
Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
M's the better team at 21-22 and look to take advantage of the class drop to get to .500 here/ They have been playing the likes of the Yankees, Angels, Padres and a 1-game makeup in Cleveland better taking three of their last four from Tampa Bay and Seattle. M's starter Baek was roughed up in that Cleveland game but pitched well before that. Seattle has beaten K.C. 14 of the last 20 meetings including 6-of-10 here. SEATTLE is 10-4 against the money line vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season. KANSAS CITY is 18-49 against the money line in home games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 3 seasons and 18-45 against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game over the last 3 seasons.
Play on: Seattle
Saturday Horse Racing Spot Picks
SPOT PLAYS
For Saturday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (2nd) Drifter's Gold, 4-1
(6th) Kenny Run, 4-1
Belmont Park (6th) Karakorum Tuxedo, 3-1
(7th) R J's Brigade, 10-1
Calder Race Course (2nd) Running Hot, 4-1
(8th) Nine of July, 4-1
Canterbury Park (5th) Magic Mittens, 5-1
(8th) Taco Don, 4-1
Charles Town (3rd) Twentyandfour, 3-1
(10th) Rockzilla, 6-1
Churchill Downs (6th) Yonegwa, 3-1
(9th) Copy My Notes, 5-1
Delaware Park (5th) Jack Be Fast, 3-1
(8th) Stylishly, 8-1
Evangeline Downs (2nd) Stormy Phantom, 9-2
(4th) Fancy Dealer, 10-1
Finger Lakes (8th) He's Got the Moves, 5-1
(9th) Brooke Haley, 3-1
Golden Gate Fields (4th) Purpley, 6-1
(9th) Hola Mamacita, 7-2
Great Lakes Downs (5th) Fightingupastorm, 7-2
(6th) She Aintnopaint, 6-1
Hastings Park (7th) Lethal Grande, 3-1
(10th) Mighty Sweet, 3-1
Hollywood Park (3rd) Lazio (Brz), 7-2
(4th) Swift Winds, 6-1
Indiana Downs (6th) Youcan'tbluff, 4-1
(7th) Storm Passer Bye, 3-1
Lone Star Park (6th) Evident, 10-1
(8th) Scaramouche, 3-1
Louisiana Downs (4th) One Fit, 7-2
(6th) Creole Diamond, 3-1
Monmouth Park (8th) Victory Alleged, 6-1
(9th) Bythebeautifulsea, 3-1
Mountaineer (7th) Sir Simms, 9-2
(8th) Sisyphus, 3-1
Philadelphia Park (5th) Sambumbe (Chi), 7-2
(6th) Execution, 6-1
Pimlico (1st) Delaware River, 7-2
(10th) Scouts Out, 8-1
Prairie Meadows (3rd) Darkly Noon, 7-2
(7th) Hazard's Jimmy, 4-1
River Downs (3rd) Vee Jay, 5-1
(9th) A'fire, 6-1
Suffolk Downs (7th) Midnight Flair, 6-1
(8th) Very Very Sneaky, 3-1
Thistledown (6th) Fire Proof, 9-2
(10th) Proper Direction, 3-1
Woodbine (2nd) Southern Kitten, 7-2
(3rd) Air Farce, 3-1
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
SHEEPSHEAD BAY H. (G2), 8TH-BEL, $150,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1 3/8MT, 4:45 P.M. EDT, 5-26
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 CLIFFROSE (GER) SHEPPARD JONATHAN E VELASQUEZ CORNE 114
2 LA DOLCE VITA HENNIG MARK PRADO E S 115
3 MOON DOLLY (GB) DUGGAN DAVID P GARCIA A 113
4 HOSTESS BOND HAROLD JAMES HILL C 113
5 HONEY RYDER PLETCHER TODD A GOMEZ G K 123
6 FACTUAL CONTENDER TAGG BARCLAY COA E M 115
7 SAFARI QUEEN (ARG) PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 119
8 BARANCELLA (FR) FRANKEL ROBERT J CASTELLANO J J 117
9 WAIT IT OUT CEDANO HERIBERTO SAMYN J L 113
Saturday's $150,000 Sheepshead Bay H. (G2) at Belmont Park features a showdown between the nation's top two distaff turf marathoners -- HONEY RYDER (Lasting Approval) and SAFARI QUEEN (Arg) (Lode) -- who happen to come from the same barn. Trainer Todd Pletcher appears to have the exacta in the 1 3/8-mile event, but in which order? Honey Ryder is the defending champion, but the 123-pound highweight is a miserly 8-5 on the morning line in her first start since returning from Dubai. Considering her impost, her traveling and the equipment change to "blinkers off" here, there are a few too many questions hovering around the gray, so we'll tab the progressive Safari Queen to take the spoils.
Safari Queen raced creditably in her first several U.S. outings, but the Argentinean champion has been a revelation since stepping up in trip. In her last five starts, the chestnut captured the Long Island H. (G2) and La Prevoyante H. (G2), finished runner-up in The Very One H. (G3) at this trip, and rolled to impressive tallies in the Orchid H. (G3) and Bewitch S. (G3) most recently. We're not concerned that she was second in her only previous start at this distance because Safari Queen is really on the upgrade at present. In the Bewitch, Safari Queen earned a career-best 108 BRIS Speed rating, which eclipses everyone in the field except Honey Ryder. Her last two Late Pace numbers (both 106), however, are better than Honey Ryder's. A forwardly placed type, Safari Queen figures to get first run on the favorite and could prove difficult to reel in, especially with her four-pound advantage in the weights. Note that stable rider John Velazquez has decided to stick with Safari Queen.
Honey Ryder will consider this class relief, as she is exiting a pair of races versus top males. The six-year-old made an eye-catching late move in the Gulfstream Park Breeders' Cup Turf S. (G1) and just failed, beaten a neck by Jambalaya (Langfuhr), who came right back to win the Pan American H. (G3). At Nad al Sheba last time out, Honey Ryder never made an impact against many of the world's best turf horses, checking in 11th in the Dubai Sheema Classic (UAE-G1). She's much better than that, and a return to female company could get her back on track. If she runs up to her best, she'll repeat here. With the blinkers off, though, she may be a little too lackadaisical early in a paceless affair. Garrett Gomez will return to the saddle.
The Bobby Frankel-trained BARANCELLA (Fr) (Acatenango) gamely chased Safari Queen in the Bewitch, racking up her eighth career stakes placing. Although she hasn't managed to win a stakes yet, the chestnut has come close in such major events as the E.P. Taylor S. (Can-G1) (2005 and 2006) and the Queen Elizabeth II Invitational Challenge Cup S. (G1) (2004). Barancella was also a rallying third in the 2005 Sheepshead Bay. She promises to crack the top three once again, but we don't envision her upstaging Team Pletcher.
LA DOLCE VITA (Quiet American) is another who has tasted defeat at the hands of Safari Queen, having finished third in the Orchid two back. Last time out, the Mark Hennig mare cut back in trip when taking the 1 1/16-mile Hollywood Wildcat Breeders' Cup H. at Calder. La Dolce Vita takes a class hike in this spot while stepping up in distance, but in view of her recent 107 Late Pace figure, she rates an intriguing outsider at 10-1. CLIFFROSE (Ger) (Monsun) has respectable German form to her credit, but she has been well beaten in both of her starts outside her homeland. On the plus side, the dark bay is eligible to move forward off her American debut for Jonathan Sheppard, in which she finished midpack in a deep allowance, and she could add value to the exotics at a hefty 30-1.
FACTUAL CONTENDER (Thunder Puddles) looms as the controlling speed, and she used her early pace to good effect when scoring in the Destiny Dance S. in her latest venture. This is an entirely different order of magnitude, however, and we'd be surprised if she hangs around for the finish. HOSTESS (Chester House) couldn't catch Factual Contender on that occasion, and her task won't get any easier here. WAIT IT OUT (Swain [Ire]) has already been drubbed by Safari Queen. MOON DOLLY (GB) (Kris S.) trailed badly throughout in the Destiny Dance, and she needs another outing to re-establish her credentials.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-SAFARI QUEEN (Arg)
2nd-HONEY RYDER
3rd-BARANCELLA (Fr)
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
LOUISVILLE H. (G3), 10TH-CD, $150,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/2MT, 5:51 P.M. EDT, 5-26
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 MURCH PITTS HELEN MARTINEZ W 113
2 ALWAYS FIRST (GB) VOSS THOMAS H ALBARADO R J 118
3 I BELIEVE IN ME MCGEE PAUL HERNANDEZ B J J 113
4 TRANSDUCTION GOLD GLENNEY JOHN BRIDGMOHAN S X 114
5 HOTSTUFANTHENSOME POINTER NORMAN R BEJARANO R 117
6 CLOUDY'S KNIGHT KIRBY FRANK J GUIDRY M 116
7 LOUVE DES REVES (IRE) BIANCONE PATRICK L LEPAROUX JULIEN 111
8 ROYAL ASSAULT MCKEEVER ANDREW CASTANON J L 112
9 RAMAZUTTI PLETCHER TODD A BOREL C H 115
10 DRILLING FOR OIL MCPEEK KENNETH G DESORMEAUX K J 114
11 FRI GUY ROMANS DALE MENA M 113
12 EMBOSSED (IRE) O'CALLAGHAN NIALL M MELANCON L 115
A full field of 12 turf runners is set for the 1 1/2-mile Louisville H. (G3), and CLOUDY'S KNIGHT (Lord Avie) will attempt to make amends for a fifth-place finish as the favorite in the Elkhorn S. (G3) at Keeneland. The seven-year-old gelding was hurt by a very tedious pace in the Elkhorn, and there's more speed in this field. Cloudy's Knight has really come on this season, netting BRIS Late Pace ratings of 109, 104 and 107 in his last three starts, and he won't face the stiffest competition here. We'll look for Cloudy's Knight to rebound with a victory over the lawn at Churchill Downs in his first start since rejoining Frank Kirby.
DRILLING FOR OIL (Giant's Causeway) is making good progress for Kenny McPeek, and he's a candidate to break through with his first stakes victory. Runner-up by a nose at this distance in his seasonal bow, the four-year-old colt captured a 1 3/8-mile allowance next out and made his stakes bow in the Pan American H. (G3), earning a 103 Late Pace rating after passing rivals in the stretch for fifth. He made his second stakes attempt in the Elkhorn and came up a length short in third, earning a 107 Speed rating and triple-digit E2 and Late Pace numbers. The improving chestnut looms as a serious threat from just off the pace.
ALWAYS FIRST (GB) (Barathea [Ire]) exits a very solid showing in the Elkhorn, just missing by a neck with his late rally, and the Tommy Voss pupil appears to be in career-best form right now. He's got the hot-riding Robby Albarado in the saddle, and the late-running gelding could offer a challenge for it all in his Churchill debut.
HOTSTUFANTHENSOME (Awesome Again) has finished second in two starts at 12 furlongs, including the Pan American two attempts back, and won the 1 3/8-mile Mac Diarmida H. (G3) last year. While the versatile gelding can handle a wide range of distances, the Norman Pointer trainee has shown a tendency to come up short recently, finishing second in five of his last nine starts. We'll use him on the bottom of some exotics.
LOUVE DES REVES (Ire) (Sadler's Wells) is another one to consider for the top three. A five-year-old mare, the previous French runner made a smashing U.S. debut in a Derby Day allowance/optional claimer, winning the 1 1/16-mile event going away by 1 1/2 lengths while registering a whopping 119 Late Pace rating. Trainer Patrick Biancone isn't afraid to run females against males, with the filly Danzon (Royal Academy) finishing an excellent third in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1) on Derby Day, and Louves des Reves looks very promising. The stakes-placed mare could make an impact if she handles the added ground.
RAMAZUTTI (Honor Grades) finished second by a neck in last year's Louisville, and the Todd Pletcher representative recorded a nice score in the 11-furlong Mac Diarmida H. (G2) earlier this season. However, Ramazutti has failed to hit the board in his last three outings, and he isn't well drawn in post 9. We still respect his chances under Calvin Borel, but we'll try to beat him. EMBOSSED (Ire) (Mark of Esteem [Ire]) is one-for-two at Churchill and exits a couple of solid efforts versus graded stakes rivals at Santa Anita and Sam Houston. The Grade 3 winner has the class to be a factor, but he's stuck in post 12 and isn't the most consistent performer.
I BELIEVE IN ME (Giant's Causeway) will be a forward factor in his stakes debut, and he exits a sharp allowance score at Keeneland for Paul McGee. While he's bred for the distance, the four-year-old owns no experience past nine furlongs in his racing career. We'll just watch to see how he fares. FRI GUY (Theatrical [Ire]) must overcome post 11, and he'll probably face too much pressure on the front end to be effective.
TRANSDUCTION GOLD (Formal Gold) is probably more comfortable over a little less ground, and we can't envision the speedy gelding leading all the way here. MURCH (Mr. Greeley) will likely find this company too difficult. ROYAL ASSAULT (Kris S.), who never factored in his return from an 18-month layoff last time out, didn't run well in his only previous turf start and would be a huge surprise here.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-CLOUDY'S KNIGHT
2nd-DRILLING FOR OIL
3rd-ALWAYS FIRST (GB)
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
HANSHIN CUP H. (G3), 9TH-AP, $100,000, 3YO/UP, 1M, 5:00 P.M. CDT, 5-26
PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 THRONG PLETCHER TODD A CAMPBELL J M 114
2 FORT PRADO BLOCK CHRIS PEREZ E E 117
3 BUDDY GOT EVEN MAKER REBECCA RAZO E JR 116
4 STAR BY DESIGN HAZELTON RICHARD P SILVA C H 114
5 CONNECTIONS DINI MIKE FERRER J C 114
6 GOULDINGS GREEN REINSTEDLER ANTHONY STERLING L J JR 120
7 LEWIS MICHAEL CATALANO WAYNE M DOUGLAS R R 118
8 SPOTSGONE FIRES WILLIAM H FIRES E 113
9 BARBICAN HARTY EOIN JOHN K 113
10 HIGH EXPECTATIONS JANKS CHRISTINE K EMIGH C A 113
11 PURIM PROCTOR THOMAS F THERIOT H J II 118
A competitive edition of the $100,000 Hanshin Cup H. (G3) is on tap for Saturday with a deep field of 11. LEWIS MICHAEL (Rahy), who has finished second versus graded rivals in his last two starts over the Polytrack at Keeneland, is the slight 7-2 morning-line favorite in the one-mile event over Arlington Park's Polytrack, but we'll tab PURIM (Dynaformer) for top honors.
Turf horses typically have little trouble adapting to the synthetic Polytrack, and Purim exits a first-class effort in perhaps the most difficult turf race to date this season, finishing third by only three parts of a length in the Maker's Mark Mile S. (G2) at Keeneland. Grade 1 winners Kip Deville (Kipling) and Showing Up (Strategic Mission) filled the first two positions, and fifth-placer Sky Conqueror (Sky Classic) won the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S. (G1) next out while sixth-placer Remarkable News (Ven) (Chayim) took the Dixie S. (G2). Purim will be making his first start on the synthetic footing, but the Tom Proctor runner has proven very adept over different surfaces, winning Grade 3 races on both turf and dirt. The outside post shouldn't hurt him in the one-turn mile event, and jockey Jamie Theriot has been riding very well this spring. Purim owns good tactical speed and should be able to settle into the perfect stalking trip before offering a winning rally.
GOULDINGS GREEN (Charismatic) has been training forwardly for his return, and the six-year-old won his first start back last year off a lengthy layoff. Winner of the Turfway Park Fall Championship S. (G3) two starts back over the Polytrack, the Anthony Reinstedler charge owns an excellent 5-4-1-0 mark at a mile. Larry Sterling Jr. will pick up the mount, and Gouldings Green merits serious respect.
BUDDY GOT EVEN (Stephen Got Even) also likes an all-weather track, winning five of eight starts for conditioner Rebecca Maker, and he exits a game score at Arlington three weeks back at this distance. The late runner owns eye-opening BRIS Late Pace ratings of 113 and 111 in recent starts, and we wouldn't be surprised to see him challenge for it all in the stretch.
Lewis Michael, who comes from top connections Frank Calabrese and Wayne Catalano, is an obvious threat for it all. He exits a non-threatening second to Silent Name (Jpn) (Sunday Silence) in the seven-furlong Commonwealth Breeders' Cup S. (G2) and also took the place in the Perryville S. (G3) last October at Keeneland. The stakes-winning four-year-old must avoid getting caught up chasing a fast pace with the speed in this field, but we can't dismiss his chances in this competitive heat. THRONG (Silver Deputy) looks like a pace factor from the rail. The Todd Pletcher trainee missed by only a nose to Buddy Got Even in the Timeless Native S. last out, and he's always run well over all-weather tracks (3-1-2-0). He could last a long way under Jesse Campbell.
FORT PRADO (El Prado [Ire]), a turf stakes winner two weeks ago at Arlington, will be making his first start over a synthetic track. The Chris Block-trained six-year-old has the class to be a factor if he handles the transition, but a one-turn mile probably isn't his optimal distance. BARBICAN (A.P. Indy) exits a commendable allowance score going nine furlongs at Keeneland, but we'll give him a race at the graded level.
CONNECTIONS (Unbridled) merits consideration for the exotics with a two-for-two mark over synthetic tracks, but the six-year-old gelding will face a stiff class check. HIGH EXPECTATIONS (Peaks and Valleys) enters in good form for Christine Janks, but this class hike may prove too difficult. STAR BY DESIGN (Distorted Humor) will likely show speed in the stretch out, but he'll have a difficult time sustaining it. SPOTSGONE (Bright Launch) will need to improve significantly to challenge.
TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-PURIM
2nd-GOULDINGS GREEN
3rd-BUDDY GOT EVEN
Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for Saturday, May 26
RACE ONE
Saturday starts off with a very difficult turf contest. We'll give a slight edge to the Art Sherman-trained Ginny Winner. 'GINNY was a well-bet disappointment earlier in her career, losing several times as the favorite, but may finally be coming around. She closed steadily off slow fractions for third last time out and arguably ran her best race in her only grass start last December. DOUBLOON CITY tried two turns and turf May 11, a combination that resulted in a second place finish. A repeat of that race makes her formidable. SUMMER JADE was three lengths behind 'DOUBLOON while racing wide the entire trip.
RACE TWO
PEACE ACCORD looks like a timely claim by John Sadler. He's been in the money all five starts, including a nose loss this meeting. 'ACCORD is drawn well, reunited with Corey Nakatani and appears to be sitting on his maiden victory. HIGH COMMAND was competitive in his only outing and should benefit from the experience. Trainer Richard Matlow has an incredible 7-1 return on investment for his second time starters. DR. OLIVER has trained decently for his debut and attracts top rider Victor Espinoza.
RACE THREE
LAZIO dropped in class and responded with a game, highly rated victory. His confidence level is elevated as he now takes a triple jump. He should be able to race up close on what figures to be a slow pace. CARELESS CANDIDATE was claimed by a high-percentage barn (Frank Monteleone) and steps up in class despite being away since February. His style fits this elongated sprint to a tee. SWEDISH RADAR hasn't raced in a year, but is perfect at this distance. If he's fit enough, he'll make his presence felt.
RACE FOUR LORD STRIPES showed promise in March with a fast closing second place finish at Gulfstream Park. He may be ready to return to the form that saw him go undefeated in his native Argentina. Corey Nakatani takes the call for high-percentage trainer Richard Dutrow. Nakatani has had a slow start this meet, but look for his business to pick up following a recent agent change. SWIFT WINDS ran surprisingly well against the likes of Epic Power and Running Free in the recent Khaled Stakes. If he can put two together, he's got a chance. SEMINOLE NATIVE raced in tight quarters through the stretch, yet was beaten just a length for all the money. He'll race coupled with STRAIGHT RUN.
RACE FIVE
C'MON TIGER won three of his four starts in this country including a facile score in his Santa Anita finale. His workouts have been sensational (1:11 1/5, 59 2/5) since and he should add another notch on his gun belt. RACKATEER was a distant third to Fairbanks in the Grade 3 Tokyo City Handicap in his last start. The Frankel trainee is very consistent and should complete the exacta. AWESOME GEM was no match for Lava Man in the Big Cap and will appreciate the drop in class. He beat older runners at Oak Tree.
RACE SIX
GO DAWG flopped as the favorite in her first Cushion Track race but can rebound here. She lost a lot of ground racing five wide and faces a below average maiden special weight field. TABARIN has talent in her family tree, but may need more distance before showing her best. Keep a close eye on this one for future reference. ENDURA returned from a year layoff to finish third for a $50,000 tag. She moves up in class in name only, as the caliber of talent in this field is around the $50,000 range.
RACE SEVEN
LIKE RUNNING WATER lays it all on the line in the afternoon. He takes a one-level class dip and draws the best post, giving him the nod in a contentious heat. STYLIN CAT was last seen winning an allowance race at Bay Meadows in March. This drop into claimers is exactly the right move by John Sadler. DENIED is still competitive at age nine. He has an impressive record of 22 in-the-money finishes from only 27 starts.
RACE EIGHT
COBALT BLUE was a Kentucky Derby hopeful until he was derailed in the Illinois Derby. He's regrouped since then and has a spectacular string of recent drills for Doug O'Neill. Expect a monster race. LEESIDER was ultra game in capturing the restricted Snow Chief Stakes opening week. He's improving every start, but this will mark his first start against open company. AWESOME GAMBLER is the upsetter of note. Though moving from a maiden victory into a stakes, 'GAMBLER put in a devastating stretch run and may be up to the task.
RACE NINE
SALAH'S JEWELS is related to a host of multi winners, trained well, and hails from a barn that does well with newcomers. She'll be steered by top apprentice Joe Talamo. LAUREN C. was runnerup in both her starts for Juan Garcia. She seems a bit of a trial horse, but her speed makes her a factor. MY MALOOF ROCKER pressed the pace in a strong race before tiring late. Expect improvement and a fair betting price.
Best Bet-PEACE ACCORD (2)
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Churchill Downs
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Analysis:: by Jill Byrne
Race 1 -
BUSTY MISS (7) was second as the favorite in her debut after breaking poorly from the inside post. The experience of that race plus the better outside draw should move her forward today. POSSE VALLEY (1) comes in from Lone Star Park where she was fourth as the favorite against maiden allowance company. She faces a similar group for a claiming price today and this Asmussen stable runner cannot be left out. HONEST TO BETSY (5) is a first time starter bred to be very precocious, and she has good morning works and Leparoux aboard.
7-1-5
Race 2 -
BEST YEARS (2) has struggled against allowance company since breaking his maiden and is now dropped into a conditioned claimer. He may not have handled the sloppy track or turf, and the combination of the class drop and a different surface look positive for him. MR BLACKSTONE (6) has been closing at this level in recent starts and gets added distance and some speed in today’s race to help his cause. QUICK PAY (7) has shown the ability at this level on Polytrack and should a strong contender from just off the pace today.
2-6-7
Race 3 -
HALLOWED HEAT (5) was very wide when he finished evenly in his first start for a claiming price last out. The second and third place finishers in that race came back to win. LONG EGO (8) showed some speed with the addition of blinkers before he faded late in his second start. He has continued to train sharply and shortens up slightly today. ROBYN’S DREAM (4) adds blinkers and drops down a peg on the claiming ladder. He always shows speed and, with the equipment change, could forget to stop.
5-8-4
Race 4 -
BOLD START (3) has been holding his own in stakes company lately and looks tough to go against as the logical favorite today. The McPeek barn has been doing very well at the meet and has found a nice confidence booster for this colt today. MOUNT WILTON (4) is undefeated and may have got away with one in his debut for a claiming price. His subsequent allowance win was strong and he has the tactical speed to be in a good position early. MR. UNSTOPPABLE (6) returns to the main track after showing little on the turf course in a small stake in Texas. He and MAKEITHAPENCAPTAIN (1) look to be the speed threats.
3-4-6
Race 5 -
THUNDER AND BELLE (3) was a sharp winner at this level last out when she forced strong early fractions. She has two wins over sloppy tracks at Churchill and must prove she can duplicate those efforts on fast footing. RAPIDIAN (4) takes another class drop here and must be considered off her best form. She is more effective when she can track the pace and should get a nice trip today with speed to her inside. STITCHY WOMAN (6) picks up Bejarano as she returns to Churchill off two good performances out of state. She has the tactical speed to be close to the top pick from the break.
3-4-6
Race 6 -
EATON’S GIFT (8) is a debut runner from the Roman's stable with a top juvenile pedigree and blazing morning workouts to back it up. He draws well in post 8 and with a recent bullet gate drill indicates that he’s ready to go first out. GERONI (5) was making up some ground late in his debut and has come back with a fast local workout for his effort. DEPUTY DANCE (6) raced a bit greenly down the lane and missed by a head in his debut at Keeneland. YONEGWA (4) finished in front of Geroni when he showed speed in his debut and has worked well since.
8-5-6
Race 7 -
LE CHATEAU (1) was overmatched in the Grade II Fairgrounds Oaks after she had scored an impressive maiden win. She is training well for her first local main track effort and does not meet a particularly strong field of first level allowance fillies. HUMBLE JANET (2) was claimed by the Asmussen stable out of an easy victory as the favorite at Oaklawn. Her last two races are good enough to make her a factor with this group. PHILIPS PRIDE (6) has been racing on the turf and Polytrack recently and looks like the best speed today. She has some good local works and could take this field gate-to-wire.
1-2-6
Race 8 -
SANS REWARD (2) made her stateside debut and her first start since October in a strong running of the Appalachian Stakes at Keeneland. She made up some ground late behind soft early fractions that day and figures to improve off that start. BALLET PACIFICA (10) has not raced since September when she was a good third in Arlington’s Grade III behind eventual Grade I winner Vacare. She hails from the powerful "French Connection" of Biancone and Leparoux and is likely to be the fan’s choice and the one to beat. READY TO TALK (12) must overcome her outside post on this short run to the first turn, but has the speed to get away from the gate and get over quickly. But there is speed to her inside and she could get pushed from the start. MY CHICKADEE (11) is versatile running well on any surface and can be in a perfect stalking trip under Robby Albarado.
2-10-12
Race 9 -
CHIEF EXPORT (3) returns to Churchill where he has run his best races by far. He was second here in the fall to multiple stakes winner Straight Line and his previous efforts over this main track resulted in three wins and a nose defeat. PIETY (7) comes into this allowance optional claimer on a three-race win streak at Fair Grounds. He had shown little prior to those races, so he must prove he can perform outside of New Orleans. CROSSWORD (1) has been running well at this condition and finally catches a race with some speed, which could help him make up ground late
3-7-1
Race 10 -
A very well matched group of turf marathoners lines up for today’s Grade III Louisville Handicap and a case could be made for more than half the field. CLOUDY’S KNIGHT (6) is a classy veteran with versatility to win at today's distance or shorter. He has been the victim of finding races without much pace, but gets a better setup today. ALWAYS FIRST (2) just missed last out in his first start of the year and figures to improve off that effort. He, like the top pick, is proven at the distance and in graded stakes company. DRILLING FOR OIL (10) is a rapidly improving horse who is a viable option in here at potentially good odds. RAMAZUTTI (9) did not show his customary speed last out on good ground, but is better when allowed to be close early.
6-2-10
Race 11 -
NIP IT (7) just failed to hold on in her first start since November and with a slight improvement off that effort can be a strong contender right back at this level today. BERNHARDT (4) stopped when facing winners at Mountaineer as the favorite last out but looks capable of rebounding against this conditioned claiming field today. THE COLOR RED (1) drops back in distance and down in class for the Mike Maker barn, which has been placing their horses well at the meet.
7-4-1
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Belmont Park
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By Art Gropper
BEST BET: Lemon Law (3rd race)
First Race
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1. River Mountain Rd 2. Sir Jackie 3. Wood Winner
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RIVER MOUNTAIN RD is fresh 7 weeks since the worst Beyer speed figure on his form. Management is outstanding with winning runners off a short break and the bullet workout for this suggests he's ready for a huge bounceback performance. SIR JACKIE was claimed for nearly 3 times this price when facing much tougher than this at Gulfstream Park. WOOD WINNER gets a big rider switch and owns a Beyer Top on the Belmont main track; primed on turf for this.
Second Race
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1. Perusal 2. Joppa Flat's 3. Runaway Banjo
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PERUSAL flew home like a wild horse on the Keeneland Polytrack and that surface has provided many recent Belmont Park winners. Elmont bullet work May 12 suggests he should eat up this new surface. JOPPA FLAT'S chased a runaway winner in last and has fired well in 4 straight, handling a variety of racing surfaces. Finished a close 5th in BEL Sept. unveiling. RUNAWAY BANJO is working strongly for debut and is a full sibling to 208K turfer Major Idea.
Third Race
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1. Lemon Law 2. Tiverton 3. Sea of Trees
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LEMON LAW lost 2 stomach-churning photos and the latest was extremely tough to take as the winner nailed him right on the line. Gomez, who rode the horse who beat him at Keeneland, shows up here, and anything close to last pair should get it done. TIVERTON needed his last start when a close 3rd in a key race. Bullet work since 5 weeks fresh and seeks to make amends from favored loss in same spot in 2005 here. SEA OF TREES made 4-year-old debut over the Inner Turf course and just missed; must include.
Fourth Race
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1. Mr Bibbs 2. Jets Only 3. Any Which Way
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MR BIBBS has been training all year at Penn National in preparation for New York-bred unveiling. Sibling to 286K Oh So Fabulous is under the handling of a masterful 1st-time starter trainer. JETS ONLY (full to 113K Air Race) has been working steadily for unveiling. ANY WHICH WAY has experience, speed and the rail. Drilled a Monmouth Park bullet for return.
Fifth Race
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1. Foose 2. Thunder Minister 3. Kiss the Dice
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In a race which seems to be lacking early pace, 1st-time turfer FOOSE gets the call to potentially steal it. Anything close to his Beyers from this year would win this and sire is getting a solid amount of 1st-lawn winners (16%). Seeks to make amends from 3-10 loss on dirt for the top New York trainer in 2007. THUNDER MINISTER made up more than 18 lengths in the final half mile of turf debut and figures a handful if he can break a little sharper for this. KISS THE DICE is much better on grass and exits a key race as the place horse won back with a 99 Beyer. Figures for a late explosion.
Sixth Race
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1. Wave the Baton 2. Karakorum Tuxedo 3. Bon Marie
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WAVE THE BATON fired 2 giant turf sprints at Saratoga last summer and has been freshened up for return with the multiple-win rider up, helping the confidence level of snapping a 2005 winless drought. This appears to be his winning spot. KARAKORUM TUXEDO was much closer to the early pace than usual in turf debut and was game to the wire, losing a 3-horse photo; too sharp to dismiss. BON MARIE needed his last start and is eligible to improve upon middle-moving return.
Seventh Race
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1. First Defence 2. Shone 3. Aaron's Classic
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FIRST DEFENCE makes 3-year-old debut, returning to the surface of his career Top Beyer speed figure and 8-length laugher last fall. Finished 2nd to Kentucky Derby 12th-place finisher Zanjero (G2-placed) when facing winners and has been working like he's ready to explode. SHONE wanted no parts of a wet track in last, but was super in defeat over the winter vs. recent G3 Flashy Bull (105 Beyer) and Bound Notebook (101 here Wed.). Projects to be rallying into a hot pace. AARON'S CLASSIC was used on the lead in a key race (place FPRIVATE "TYPE=PICT;ALT="108 Beyer in next start). Remember nose loss in 2005 here to Master Command and the works suggest he's ready for a peak performance right off the bench.
Eighth Race
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1. Honey Ryder 2. Safari Queen 3. Barancella
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Looks like a battle of the Todd Pletcher-trained female lawn mowers. Defending champion HONEY RYDER was awesome in her lone 2007 United States start vs. the boys, nosed at today's distance by Jambayla, who won a next out G3 (99 Beyer). Raced wide for a 5M pot overseas and receives the same freshening as last year's triumph. Main concern is regular rider and win rider for the stable, Velazquez, sides with SAFARI QUEEN. She was just OK in 2 prior Belmont starts on the Widener course in 2006, but has done little wrong since G3 loss here last fall, winning 4-of-5, including three graded stakes. BARANCELLA owns a BEL Inner turf victory and finished a close 3rd in this event in 2005. Has been within range of the top pair in the recent past.
Ninth Race
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1. Dantastic 2. Saturday's Cat 3. Raynicks Fan
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DANTASTIC was too eager on the lead in latest and it cost him late. The race he exits looks a lot better since the winner scored right back in allowance company (78 Beyer) next out. New colt on the green is out of a turf-winning dam (68K sod). SATURDAY'S CAT was game in defeat from post 11 in this same spot 3 weeks ago and sibling to 320K turfer Cozy Blues always seems to fire; hard to leave out. RAYNICKS FAN finished evenly in career debut, but is bred both sides for lawn (out of a 152K grass dam); learning experience can pay dividends.
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Calder
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Analysis:: by Ron Nicoletti
12:50PM
Race 1 -
6 I'M RAVEN, a hard luck daughter of Stormy Atlantic, plunges to the $16K level on the dirt after a pair of troubled trips vs. better on the lawn. Trainer Norm Pointer, 26% with the turf-to-dirt move, has leading apprentice Sally Mitchellhill named to ride. 5 TWICEASBEAUTIFUL should improve after chasing the pace and finishing a distant third in her career debut at this level and distance. 1 KARONS RUNNER is turning back to 6 furlongs after chasing the pace and tiring vs. similar in a 2-turn mile.
6-5-1
Race 2 -
9 SOUND CHECK drops, and turns back to 7 1/2 furlongs after dueling for the lead 3-wide and getting beat 2 1/2 lengths vs. $40K claimers in his local turf debut at a mile and a sixteenth. 4 RUNNING HOT, sharp in a pair on the Gulfstream turf, will try $32K claimers after losing his best chance when he broke awkwardly vs. $16K optional claimers here last out. 10 DOMENICK'S DUNE, much improved with the addition of blinkers, turns back after saving ground and finishing sixth - only a half-length behind Sound Check last out. 3 SPIRIT SOARS will face winners after drawing clear to defeat $32K maidens in his Gulfstream turf finale.
9-4-10-3
Race 3 -
4 BLUE PEPSI LODGE, a stakes-placed son of Pioneering, drops to a level where he should be able to flaunt his tactical speed. Trainer Steve Standridge has Elvis Trujillo in the saddle again. 3 BOW OUT will try $25K claimers after posting by far the best last-race speed figure (87) when finishing second in a swift $12.5K starter allowance test at the distance. 2 KELLYS RX is stepping up the competition with the ideal stalking style needed to reel in what should be a hot & heavy pace scenario. Jeffrey Sanchez rides.
4-3-2
Race 4 - THE SARA'S SUCCESS
1 SILVER CHARADES, in an entry with equally sharp stakes-placed 1A SNOW CONE, turns back after rallying 3-wide to defeat $25K optional claimers here at a mile. The biggest challenge for the Marty Wolfson-trained entry should come from uncoupled stablemate 8 EL BANK ROBBER. The daughter of Eltish, a stakes winner at a mile and a sixteenth, stretches out after rallying to finish second in the 5-furlong Cool Air last out. 5 SILVERSIDER, beaten a length, at 24-1, in the Hollywood Wildcat here on Apr. 28, stretches out after steadying twice and still managing to finish third behind El Bank Robber, as the favorite, in the Cool Air. 6 MS. WONDER WOMAN is turning back after setting the pace and yielding late to finish third behind Silver Charades at a mile.
1-1A-8-5-6
Race 5 -
4 MAIN STREET GIRL, the only participant with previous experience, stretches out to 5 furlongs after finishing a troubled second (steadied turn) in her $40K debut at 4 1/2 furlongs. 3 MAGDALENA'S CHASE is a daughter of Cape Town who shows a couple of sharp half-mile drills, and a 3-furlong bullet, in preparation for the debut. Trainer Ed Plesa Jr., 20% with his 2-year-olds, has go-to jock Roimes Chirinos at the controls. 8 CHEROKEE BEAUTY, from Calder Hall Of Fame trainer Frank Gomez's barn, may have tipped her hand when she worked a 5-furlong bullet in preparation for this assignment. 7 CATCH FIRE, 1 of 2 from trainer Manny Tortora, has trained consistently over the track in preparation for the debut.
4-3-8-7
Race 6 -
12 CRUDEN BAY comes off an eventful trip from Post 11 in which he stumbled at the start, was forced wide into the first turn, and beaten only a nose vs. similar at 7 1/2 furlongs. 4 GONE STRAIGHT is stepping up after recovering from a troubled start to finish a half-length behind second race participant Running Hot in a $50K maiden-claimer across town. Use the earlier race as a handicapping guide before you bet this son of Straight Man. 8 SARATOGA MATT is hoping for a clean trip after being stopped three times before finishing seventh behind Cruden Bay last out. 2 HEAVYWEIGHT is looking to land the knockout punch after coming within a neck of springing an 18-1 upset at 5 furlongs on the Gulfstream turf.
12-4-8-2
Race 7 -
1 TIGER JEN, a winner of 50% of her races this year (6-3-0-2), stretches out after defeating similar here at 7 furlongs. 2 FAN FRIENDLY is stretching out to a mile and a sixteenth after following a " two-lifetime" score in a 1-turn mile at Gulfstream with a "three-lifetime" score here in a 2-turn mile. 5 SUMMIT QUEEN, the only previous winner at the distance (6-1-0-1), is stretching out after finishing a troubled second behind Fan Friendly at a mile (steadied 1st turn).
1-2-5
Race 8 -
1 WILD 'N' WAKI GUY will face $40K maidens after chasing the pace and finishing third vs. special weight competition in his Tampa turf debut at the distance. 9 SHEIKH is hoping to make amends after finishing second and being placed fourth after drifting out during the stretch run of his local return at the distance. 11 NINTH OF JULY returns on the Twenty Sixth of May after hitting the board in three consecutive 5-furlong turf sprints during Oct. & Nov. of 2006. Trainer Phil Gleaves has the sprint specialist training consistently for this assignment. 6 DISTINCTIVE RIDGE is turning back after opening and squandering a 4-length lead vs. $25K maidens at a mile.
1-9-11-6
Race 9 -
3 HOWDY PARDNER is the logical choice to put this condition in the bank after dueling for the lead and finishing second in his local return at the distance. However, his fondness for finishing second here is a concern (15-1-7-2). 1 MATTINGLY is stretching out to 7 furlongs after bobbling at the start, steadying on the backstretch, and finishing third vs. $10K conditioned claimers at three-quarters. 5 CORRYVILLE, fourth behind Howdy Pardner here on Apr. 27, is stretching out after stalking the pace and finishing fourth again vs. similar at three-quarters of a mile. 8 WESTCOASTESTCOAST, a previous winner at the distance (6-1-0-1), figures after closing late to get beat 3 1/2 lengths vs. similar at 6 furlongs.
3-1-5-8
Race 10 -
2 LOUIS LE GRANDE drops into this $12.5K claimer after two sharp outings at Tampa in which he followed his 'much the best' score vs. $10K "three-lifetime" claimers with a well-meant third vs. first-level allowance competition. 5 MANIFESTANTE is hoping to get away from the gate in a timely fashion after acting up at the start prior to finishing third vs. similar at 6 1/2 furlongs. 7 JUST ADD RUM, a 2-time winner at this specialized distance (7-2-1-0), turns back after coming up empty vs. similar in his local return at a mile & 70 yards.
2-5-7
Race 11 -
6 CHIARA is hoping to finally notch a victory at the distance (10-0-4-2) after two solid performances at 5 1/2 furlongs in which she defeated first-level optional claimers at Gulfstream, and was second here at this level in her last start. 4 REASON TO REJOICE is stretching out to 6 furlongs after setting the pace and giving way late to finish third behind Chiara last out. 1 BANDA VICTORIA should offer more in her second start back from an 8-month layoff after rallying late to finish fourth behind Chiara and Reason To Rejoice.
6-4-1
Race 12 -
8 LUCKILY will try $5K claimers at 6 1/2 furlongs after beating $8K claimers at Tampa at a mile and 7 furlongs, respectively. 4 LADYDOCTORSFORTUNE is stretching out an additional half-furlong after holding on gamely to defeat this caliber of competition at three-quarters of a mile. 7 AILEEN, a 3-time winner over this surface, stretches out after breaking slowly and finishing fourth behind Ladydoctorsfortune in their recent clash at three-quarters of a mile.
BEST BET: RACE 6 - CRUDEN BAY
LONG SHOT: RACE 8 - DISTINCTIVE RIDGE
8-4-7
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TRACKMASTER RACE OF THE DAY
Today's Free Race: Pimlico for Saturday May 26, 2007
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts at Pimlico
Pimlico - Race #1 - Post: 1:10pm
Choice Plays:
#3 DELAWARE RIVER (ML=7/2)
#6 PLEASE THE CROWD (ML=3/1)
DELAWARE RIVER - Don't often see a positive return on investment like +127. This rider/handler pair has done well together over the last 12 months. Rode this animal on Apr 19th and Karamanos is right back in the irons today. I like when a racer wins after shipping in from elsewhere. It shows that they really like the track here. I'll take this gelding to win again. This one has increased his Equibase speed figs in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is extremely important. Just look at his latest speed rating, 115. That one fits well in this field. PLEASE THE CROWD - Gelding looks like the lone speed here. He may turn the race into a procession. This thoroughbred coming off a sharp performance in the last thirty days is a strong challenger in my opinion. Finished ahead of today's favorite in the last race at Pimlico. Can do the same again right here.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SHARPS ISLAND (ML=5/2), #5 SWAGGER STICK (ML=4/1), #4 TAM'S TERMS (ML=6/1)
SHARPS ISLAND - A sustainer like this one needs an early battle to set things up and he isn't likely to get one in this one. 108/103/92, are the decreasing Equibase speed figs for this pony. Don't feel this horse will do much running in today's race. That last fig was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's class rating. SWAGGER STICK - This horse hasn't shown too much in the last pair of affairs. TAM'S TERMS - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last couple of outings. The speed rating last time out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's event. Mark this horse as a vulnerable contender.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #3 DELAWARE RIVER on top if we're getting at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,6]
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Guaranteed Pick: Tom Freese
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins May 26 2007 7:10PM
Prediction: over
Reason: We like a high scoring game here as both starting pitchers Ramon Ortiz for Minnesota and Tomo Ohka for Toronto have more walks than strikeouts in their last 3 starts. That means plenty of baserunners and plenty of runs. The Blue Jays are 7-3 Over as road dogs of $110 to $150. The Twins are 3-0-1 Over the last 4 starts made by Ortiz. 5* Play On 'Over' (Ortiz vs. Ohka)
Guaranteed Pick: Tom Freese
Game: Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 2007 3:55PM
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Reason: Los Angeles starter Mark Hendrickson has been terrible of late allowing 16 runs in his last 17 innings of work. The Cubs Carlos Zambrano has a 1.24 ERA in 4 career starts against the Dodgers. The Cubs are 6-2 in Game 2 of a road series this year. 5* Play On Chicago (Zambrano vs. Hendrickson)
