Does the Pinny lean really work on lesser sports?

AFLGuru · May 27, 2007

I was real bored last night in the middle of the night and noticed some wicked line movement on some Japanese soccer game... Went from like +1 +106 to +1 -124 right before gametime. No surprise, the game ended in a tie. You think if we sat here and really tracked the Pinny leans for all of the lesser sports, ESPECIALLY the international sports (since Pinnacle is now only international), that we'd win?

I think it's an interesting study...

Mr.Smith · May 27, 2007

thats not a lean, thats moving on action taken

trytrytry · May 27, 2007

a lean is when it stays at a price for a long period of time that looks a bit juicy compared to the other shops. As Pinny teases you with Bait to play one side over the other...

If a game moves late due to action, smart money, dumb money and another shop is slow to move those are not as profitable to play on. they offer some value and if its a really slow to move book you might have some overlays but its not a gold mine.

AFLGuru · May 27, 2007

I would assume when someone is betting enough to move a line on a Japanese soccer game that he's probably winning at it long term... I know it's not a "gold mine," but there really isn't a "gold mine" strategy in gambling. Slow and steady wins the race.

Santo · May 27, 2007

Depends what Pinny's limits are, and he may be scalping at Pinny from another line elsewhere.

There are much sharper soccer books than Pinnacle.

MrJ · May 27, 2007

I would assume when someone is betting enough to move a line on a Japanese soccer game that he's probably winning at it long term

I wouldn't make this assumption...

Mr.Smith · May 27, 2007

you'd have to be able to find the handicapper that caused the move and ask him if he still likes it at -124. and like mr J said, you may be following the picks of some Japanese businessman with more money than sense

trytrytry · May 27, 2007

Mr J said:
I would assume when someone is betting enough to move a line on a Japanese soccer game that he's probably winning at it long term

I wouldn't make this assumption...

good thread here.

AFL I would love you to post when you see this kind of pinny line movement, they are hard to find as you need be looking over so many off sport events. point them out and lets chart them or play them small at the slow moving books and see what we learn...

AFLGuru · May 27, 2007

Mr. Smith said:
you'd have to be able to find the handicapper that caused the move and ask him if he still likes it at -124. and like mr J said, you may be following the picks of some Japanese businessman with more money than sense

Perhaps I should clarify... Take these weirdo basketball games. I watched some team go from +3 -106 at Pinnacle to +2 -110 about 20 minutes before start time. I still could've gotten +3 -110 at Olympic. If some guy likes it +3 -06, I can only assume that he still likes it at +3 -10.

Mr.Smith · May 27, 2007

AFLGuru said:
Perhaps I should clarify... Take these weirdo basketball games. I watched some team go from +3 -106 at Pinnacle to +2 -110 about 20 minutes before start time. I still could've gotten +3 -110 at Olympic. If some guy likes it +3 -06, I can only assume that he still likes it at +3 -10.

I am not the best one to answer this but they may have moved the line to 2 because someone they respect bet it +3. they may have moved it because it is such a small market one $500 bet ( from God knows who) is enough to move it. also could just be moving it because of middlers. probably either middlers or just one big random bet

quantumleap · May 27, 2007

trytrytry said:
good thread here.

AFL I would love you to post when you see this kind of pinny line movement, they are hard to find as you need be looking over so many off sport events. point them out and lets chart them or play them small at the slow moving books and see what we learn...

I did this last year for soccer with some success and then using the same methods lost all my profits. I was using http://asianodds.org to find quick moving lines. I noticed some of the quick moves to really be off. But there were quite a few that had good line movement just before the game that lead to a win.

Iceman · May 27, 2007

I consider myself almost an expert on the Pinny lean and stuff like this. I don't have the answer for you on your question but I will say one thing, you must honestly look at over 700 bets to even begin to formulate an opinion.

Thinking you have come to any other conclusion before 700 bets is pointless. Take my word for it. I have had 8 straight winning months using the Pinny lean type strategy and after 700 bets for the month I got ahead each one of these months. Gambling is too streaky to even come to any conclusions without it. By far the best advice I could give you on this. If I would have quit a few months, 100 or so bets into it I would have gave up on this and cost myself alot alog the way. It's not the Pinny lean so much as getting GREAT NUMBERS compared to market numbers as this is where your edge comes into play.

AFLGuru · May 27, 2007

Excellent post Iceman. I'm certainly not coming to any conclusions at this point, just trying to determine what works and what doesn't. Always looking for an edge. Even a 1 cent EV advantage sure beats the alternative that the book typically has.

Iceman · May 27, 2007

I just see it all the time. I used to do it alot myself. Start something and never see it thru. A few very reputable posters on here are notoroius for this. There are alot of ways to win at this but jumping from way to another is not one of them.

You will always go thru losing stretchs, be prepared it means nothing in the scope of things.

quantumleap · May 27, 2007

Iceman said:
I just see it all the time. I used to do it alot myself. Start something and never see it thru. A few very reputable posters on here are notoroius for this. There are alot of ways to win at this but jumping from way to another is not one of them.

You will always go thru losing stretchs, be prepared it means nothing in the scope of things.

This is true of a lot of betting, even casino games.

I forgot to mention my favorite line-movement web site:

http://www.tip-ex.com/omoves.php

It shows how many books have moved the line in soccer matches for each team and even on the draw bet.

AFLGuru · May 27, 2007

AFLGuru said:
Perhaps I should clarify... Take these weirdo basketball games. I watched some team go from +3 -106 at Pinnacle to +2 -110 about 20 minutes before start time. I still could've gotten +3 -110 at Olympic. If some guy likes it +3 -06, I can only assume that he still likes it at +3 -10.

Team that was +3 won by 15...

Does the Pinny lean really work on lesser sports?

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