<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">3</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+8.32 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">48</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">55</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+7.06 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since April 2007)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">80</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">100</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-5.75 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Pittsburgh –1½ +1.41 over CINCINNATI
The “due to win” theory is about the most ridiculous theory in sports-betting right up there with “it’s a must win game”. The only thing the Reds are due for is a change in management and a new leftfielder because Adam Dunn might just be the most useless player to ever play this game. Dunn usually strikes out three or four times in a game, his defense is atrocious and he’ll go yard when the Reds are up 9-1 or down 9-1. Anyway, Ian Snell is emerging as one of the best young arms in the game. The league is hitting just .241 off him and in 64.2 innings he’s whiffed 52 batters. That should bode very well here against a Reds line-up that’s never seen a pitch they didn’t like. Snell will usually pitch deep into games and in fact, in 10 starts he’s pitched seven full innings in six of them. Snell comes in with an ERA of 3.06 and a road ERA of 3.00. The Reds will counter with Kyle Lohse and his 5.31 ERA. Not only is Lohse’s ERA high but he’s 1-6 and the team has lost seven of the 10 games he’s started. Lohse has surrendered 76 hits in 57 frames and in four May starts he hasn’t fooled anyone. In fact, Lohse’s ERA in May is 8.87 and the four teams he faced, Houston, the Dodgers, Cleveland and Washington hit .382 off him. The Bucco’s have a big edge on the mound and the Reds are in a giant losing streak and perhaps even a larger mental slump. Lay the 10 cents if you wish, that’s still a good wager but we’ll just as confidently lay 1½ runs with a nice take-back. Play: Pittsburgh –1½ +1.41 (Risking 2 units). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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Arizona +1.43 over PHILADELPHIA
Sure, the Phillies are very warm indeed and after a horrible start this host is making a serious move, just as many expected them to. However, they’re also overpriced in this one because their stock is at it’s highest point and thus, we’ll step in against them. Freddy Garcia has not been impressive at all, especially at home, where he has yet to win this season. In fact, at Citizens Bank Park, Garcia has thrown 21 innings covering four starts and has surrendered 30 hits, five jacks, 12 earned runs and the opposition has hit .341 off him. His numbers on the road aren’t really that much better. We’ve seen Garcia pitch many times and even his recorded outs are “loud”. So, while everyone sees the Phillies making a move the D-Backs quietly come in here having swept a four–game set with the Astros and outscoring them 35-12. Like Philly, the Snakes are swinging some hot bats too, having hit .368 over the weekend. Doug Davis is not flashy, nor is he overpowering. What he is, however, is consistent and reliable. His 2-6 record is misleading because his ERA is a very respectable 3.57 but he’s gotten very little run support. Davis is a lefty and the Phillies have not faired so well against southpaws this season, going 1-4 at home and 5-12 overall. Overlay. Play: Arizona +1.43 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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TORONTO +1.35 over NY Yankees
Sure, the Yanks may score 10 runs tonight but the problem with that is they’ll probably give up 11. Once again, just like every other day, the Yanks are overpriced and that’s fine with us. Only four teams in the majors have fewer wins then the Yankees but we don’t see that quartet being big favorites every day. Matt DeSalvo will make his fourth start of the year but first since May 17 when he allowed six hits and four runs in just 3.1 innings against the White Sox. DeSalvo also appeared in relief this past Friday against the Angels and failed to record an out, as he faced four batters and gave up two hits and issued two walks. Speaking of walks, DeSalvo has now walked 12 batters in 17 innings and struck out four. Now, we’re no mathematicians but there’s a definite ratio problem there. In any case, if Desalvo were pitching for any other team he’d be taking back a big price and no matter how you break this down there’s tremendous value on the Jays tonight. Dustin McGowan is not as bad as his numbers suggest and we’re here to tell you that this guy is on the verge of something good. McGowans stuff is too good and the Jays are going to use this year to allow him to blossom. Play: Toronto +1.35 (Risking 2 units).
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Pittsburgh –1½ +1.41 over CINCINNATI
The “due to win” theory is about the most ridiculous theory in sports-betting right up there with “it’s a must win game”. The only thing the Reds are due for is a change in management and a new leftfielder because Adam Dunn might just be the most useless player to ever play this game. Dunn usually strikes out three or four times in a game, his defense is atrocious and he’ll go yard when the Reds are up 9-1 or down 9-1. Anyway, Ian Snell is emerging as one of the best young arms in the game. The league is hitting just .241 off him and in 64.2 innings he’s whiffed 52 batters. That should bode very well here against a Reds line-up that’s never seen a pitch they didn’t like. Snell will usually pitch deep into games and in fact, in 10 starts he’s pitched seven full innings in six of them. Snell comes in with an ERA of 3.06 and a road ERA of 3.00. The Reds will counter with Kyle Lohse and his 5.31 ERA. Not only is Lohse’s ERA high but he’s 1-6 and the team has lost seven of the 10 games he’s started. Lohse has surrendered 76 hits in 57 frames and in four May starts he hasn’t fooled anyone. In fact, Lohse’s ERA in May is 8.87 and the four teams he faced, Houston, the Dodgers, Cleveland and Washington hit .382 off him. The Bucco’s have a big edge on the mound and the Reds are in a giant losing streak and perhaps even a larger mental slump. Lay the 10 cents if you wish, that’s still a good wager but we’ll just as confidently lay 1½ runs with a nice take-back. Play: Pittsburgh –1½ +1.41 (Risking 2 units). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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></o>Arizona +1.43 over PHILADELPHIA
Sure, the Phillies are very warm indeed and after a horrible start this host is making a serious move, just as many expected them to. However, they’re also overpriced in this one because their stock is at it’s highest point and thus, we’ll step in against them. Freddy Garcia has not been impressive at all, especially at home, where he has yet to win this season. In fact, at Citizens Bank Park, Garcia has thrown 21 innings covering four starts and has surrendered 30 hits, five jacks, 12 earned runs and the opposition has hit .341 off him. His numbers on the road aren’t really that much better. We’ve seen Garcia pitch many times and even his recorded outs are “loud”. So, while everyone sees the Phillies making a move the D-Backs quietly come in here having swept a four–game set with the Astros and outscoring them 35-12. Like Philly, the Snakes are swinging some hot bats too, having hit .368 over the weekend. Doug Davis is not flashy, nor is he overpowering. What he is, however, is consistent and reliable. His 2-6 record is misleading because his ERA is a very respectable 3.57 but he’s gotten very little run support. Davis is a lefty and the Phillies have not faired so well against southpaws this season, going 1-4 at home and 5-12 overall. Overlay. Play: Arizona +1.43 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>TORONTO +1.35 over NY Yankees
Sure, the Yanks may score 10 runs tonight but the problem with that is they’ll probably give up 11. Once again, just like every other day, the Yanks are overpriced and that’s fine with us. Only four teams in the majors have fewer wins then the Yankees but we don’t see that quartet being big favorites every day. Matt DeSalvo will make his fourth start of the year but first since May 17 when he allowed six hits and four runs in just 3.1 innings against the White Sox. DeSalvo also appeared in relief this past Friday against the Angels and failed to record an out, as he faced four batters and gave up two hits and issued two walks. Speaking of walks, DeSalvo has now walked 12 batters in 17 innings and struck out four. Now, we’re no mathematicians but there’s a definite ratio problem there. In any case, if Desalvo were pitching for any other team he’d be taking back a big price and no matter how you break this down there’s tremendous value on the Jays tonight. Dustin McGowan is not as bad as his numbers suggest and we’re here to tell you that this guy is on the verge of something good. McGowans stuff is too good and the Jays are going to use this year to allow him to blossom. Play: Toronto +1.35 (Risking 2 units).
