Jibba's Memorial Day MLB

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Nov 22, 2006
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Money Lines:

Favorites: 131-77 for +22.71 units
Underdogs: 44-44 for +12.96 units
Total: 175-121 for for +35.67 units

Totals: 2-1 for 1.63 units

Run Lines: 5-8 for -2.54 units

Parlays: 0-2 for -2.97 units

______________________________________________________

Nice winning day yesterday which was dampened slightly by late additions to my card, even if they were smaller plays. Looking to keep the winning going today though. Last night I took a quick look at the lines and thought that some of the favorites on the board were badly overpriced. After a second review, I think a couple of them are worthy of the lines and that the book may be trying to entice the public with great lines on dogs. Never really know, but I feel much better about today's card after a long second look. Still a few games that seem like they're better off to stay away from altogether.

Pirates -106: I'll be the first to admit that it feels like I'm walking into a trap at this price. But the Reds are garbage right now and I don't think they can beat Snell, who has pitched well against them in the past. Last month Snell shut out this Reds offense over 7 innings and I wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat of that performance. Snell has been solid on the road this year with an ERA of 3.00, a WHIP of 1.22 and a BAA of .241. Kyle Lohse, on the other hand, hasn't really pitched well anywhere. He's been able to keep his ERA under 4 at home this year, but that goes along with an 0-2 record and a .305 BAA. I've been saying for a few weeks now that he's having a lot of trouble with the transition to starter, and I think that's become even more clear over his last 3 starts, where he's 0-3 with a 15.70 ERA and a 2.70 WHIP. There's certainly something to be said for riding Snell and a suddenly hot Pirates team, but this is more of a fade of the awful Reds. 1.59 units to win 1.5.

Marlins +150: I just don't see any reason for this line. I came up with Cubs -120 personally. Both teams have looked bad recently, Florida at home and the Cubs on the road. But the Marlins have played well lately on the road (5-1 in last 6) while the Cubs have played well recently at home (7-3 in last 10). Marshall looked good in his only start this year, and Kim is usually a fade for me, but I just can't pass up at this price. Looking at the numbers for these two side by side, it's hard to tell who is who. Kim had a 5.57 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP in 27 starts while Marshall had a 5.59 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP in 24 starts. So the only answer I can come up with is that the public will buy right into Marshall and his one solid start this year. Not me. With Hanley back in the lineup, and an opponent other than the Mets, Florida will be ready to tee off against a Cubbies team that has a tendency to play down to its competition. 1.5 units to win 2.25.

Tigers -137: Not much to say about this one. It's one of the better offenses in the league facing Edwin Jackson and the D-Rays. I'll join the public on this one. 2.06 units to win 1.5.

Orioles -123: Kansas City is just what the doctor ordered for the slumping Orioles, who actually come into today's game having won 2 straight. Elarton and Baltimore are horrible at home. And despite Trachsel's inability to beat KC in the past, I love having him in this spot the way he's pitching. KC is in a freefall and Baltimore's bats should have a good shot at waking up against a very bad KC team and pitching staff. 1.85 units to win 1.5.

Currently have strong leans on the Brewers and Rockies, and a mediocre lean on the Bluejays. BOL to everyone on today's card and I hope everyone has a great Memorial Day.
 

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Thanks 50. Gonna add just two more for now.

Rockies -144: 2.16 units to win 1.5.
Milwaukee -126: 1.89 units to win 1.5.
 

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Jibba, I Feel The Same With The Reds , Don't Think It's A Trap, I Think The Books Feel The Poor Bastards Have To Win Sooner Or Later , But After Riding Them For The Last 7 Games I'm Done With Them And Take My Chances With Pitt And The Over ! G.l
 

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