Jibba's MLB Tuesday

Money Lines:

Favorites: 133-80 for +20.17 units
Underdogs: 45-44 for +15.21 units
Total: 175-121 for for +35.38 units

Totals: 2-1 for 1.63 units

Run Lines: 5-8 for -2.54 units

Parlays: 0-2 for -2.97 units

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Thought I had a nice winning night yesterday only to learn the Tigers screwed me by blowing a lead to the D-Rays in the bottom of the 9th. Been awhile since I had that kind of beat, so I guess I should be thankful. Don't have much time right now, but like today's card a lot.

NY Mets -138: The Mets are heating up again and face rookie phenom Tim Lincecum tonight. As great as he has looked in his last 3 outings, I really don't like how he matches up with this mixture of veterans and youth in NY's offense. Ollie is on a tear right now, having allowed only 6 ERs and 19 hits in his last 5 starts. The only blemish during that time is a matchup against these Giants where he allowed 8 runs (only 2 earned) on 5 hits in 4.2 innings in San Francisco. This time around the game will be in NY, and the Giants are a much weaker team on the road this year than they are at home. That doesn't mix well with facing Ollie at home, where he has a 2.61 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and an amazing .174 BAA. His past against the Giants can be written off for 2 reasons IMO. First, he was on an awful team in Pittsburgh. And second, he is not the same pitcher he was the last 2 years. We're finally seeing the Perez of 2004 again, and I think it's more than the Giants mediocre offense can handle. 2.10 units to win 1.5.

Should be back this morning with at least a few more. Gonna be a very busy day at work though so I'll only be on sporadically.

Thanks Primoz.

Here's hoping this is the day of the dogs. Overpriced favorites abound in my opinion. It's possible that one or two of these lines might get even better as the day goes on, but I'm glad to take them as is and not have to worry about losing some of the value.

San Diego +126: Padres are playing great ball right now, while the Pirates just got to beat up on the Reds for 4 games and have still only won 4 of their last 10. This line is all about David Wells and his problems on the road and against the Pirates in the past. But those problems are more than made up for by the fact that we get the smoking hot Padres as a dog to a team that, even with Gorzellany on the mound, still just isn't that good. The Padres have dominated the NL Central this year, going 10-4 in those games, and I think they'll have their way with a Pirates team that is a woeful 9-14 at home this year.

Fading Wells on the road has become a very public bet IMO. After all, he's given up 7 or 8 hits in every road start this year. But this isn't a Pirates team that is known for its offense. And Wells has turned in 2 straight very solid performances, giving up only 2 runs in 15 innings while striking out 10 during that span. It should also be noted that despite Wells' inability to succeed on the road this year, or in Pittsburgh in the past, the Padres have won 7 of 10 in PNC Park and are 12-6 all-time there.

On the other side, the Pirates send Gorzellany to the mound tonight. He comes into tonight's matchup after having been pulled early from his last start with a bruised thumb. We'll find out soon enough if he still feels any effects from that injury. And as great as he's been this year, we can't forget that he plays for the Pirates, who are 1-4 in Gorzellany's last 5 home starts. 1.5 units to win 1.89.

Arizona +137: This line seems way off to me. The D-Backs come in smoking hot, having won 5 straight and 8 of 10. During their current 5 game winning streak, they've outscored their opponents 40-16 and have batted .347 as a team. Tonight they'll have Micah Owings, who's coming off the best start of his career, on the mound. In his last start, Owings went 9 innings, allowing 9 hits but only 1 run, while striking out 8 against Houston. He hasn't been good on the road thus far, but it's a very small sample size and I don't expect him to have a 7+ ERA on the road all year, considering that his ERA on the season sits just above 4. Owings beat this same Phillies team earlier this month, going 7 innings and allowing just 5 hits and 2 runs.

Arizona will be facing Jon Lieber tonight. Lieber seems overvalued here IMO, considering that he is pitching a good deal better than he has over the better part of the last dozen seasons. Well . . . at least he was to start the season. He's cooled off a bit and Philly has won only 1 of his last 5 starts. Anyway, Lieber's had serious difficulties against Arizona in the past, going 1-7 in 8 starts with a 6.10 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and a .314 BAA. Over 8 starts, I just can't see it as a fluke. For whatever reason (whether it be their generally young lineup or Chase Field, where his numbers are horrendous), he has trouble with the D-Backs. And at this price, I'm more than willing to bet he continues that trend tonight. Can't help but think this is virtually a coin flip with an inflated line because the public really wants to back this Phillies lineup with Howard back. 1.5 units to win 2.06.

Also like 2 runlines quite a bit today and I'm going to go ahead and play them.

Boston -1.5, +110: Beckett looks to be over his injury and the Sox should have a field day against Jeremy Sowers. Before shutting down the non-existent Royals offense on Thursday, Sowers had been awful in his previous 3 starts, giving up 22 hits and 19 ERs over 13 innings against the Reds, Angels and Orioles. On the road this year, Sowers has gone 1-3 over 6 starts with a 7.28 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP, and a .325 BAA. Against an offense like Boston's, which has been on a tear at home this year, I really don't like his chances of making it out of the 4th inning or 5th inning. Plus, despite Cleveland's sweep in Detroit over the weekend, they're still the same mediocre road team they were last week. Also, I don't have the stat but I recall hearing a few weeks ago that while Boston's offense has been very good against lefties this year (3rd in BA, 2nd in OBP, 6th in SLG), they have been amazing at home against lefties on their way to a 5-1 home record v. lefties (only loss coming to Pettitte and the Yanks). Just too much value here to pass up IMO. 1.5 units to win 1.65.

Detroit -1.5, -103: I think the Tigers finally get back on track tonight. Fossum is horrible and Bonderman should finally get back on track against this TB offense. Because I've lost 4 straight on the Tigers, and could be chasing a bit, I'm going to keep this to a 1 unit play. Just can't see them not turning this one into a blowout though. 1.03 units to win 1.

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I am currently pretty sure that I will also be playing Toronto +144 (can't believe I chickened out of this one yesterday), Colorado +104 and Florida +125. I think there's a good chance that these lines will only get better as the day goes on. Other leans are Atlanta (waiting to see how high this will go) and Minnesota. Leaning toward keeping these 2 off my card though, as it should be more than big enough already once I add the Jays, Rockies and Marlins. BOL to everyone on today's card.

Bosox :nono5:

thecakeoff said:

Bosox :nono5:

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Don't trust Sowers, or any lefty playing the Sox in Fenway. People don't want to believe that Beckett is finally back, but everything I've seen from him this year says he is. Sox should cruise in this one. Line is high for a reason.

Jibba said:

Don't trust Sowers, or any lefty playing the Sox in Fenway. People don't want to believe that Beckett is finally back, but everything I've seen from him this year says he is. Sox should cruise in this one. Line is high for a reason.

Click to expand...

:nono5:

Going to get out my full card now and be done with it. Doesn't look like I'll have time to do writeups for the 3 additions. Lines are included for those 3 additions.

Mets: 2.10 units to win 1.5.
Padres: 1.5 units to win 1.89.
Diamondbacks: 1.5 units to win 2.06.
Rockies +104: 1.5 units to win 1.56.
Marlins +125: 1.5 units to win 1.88.
Bluejays +142: 1 unit to win 1.42.
Red Sox -1.5, +110: 1.5 units to win 1.65.
Tigers -1.5, -103: 1.03 units to win 1.


The only potential addition would be Atlanta, but I'd need the line to continue rising a good deal in that one. BOL to everyone on their cards today. Hope you all make some money.

Real nice card...I believe Bonds is sitting tonight

GOOD LUCK WITH ALL YOUR PLAYS:lol: :toast:

BOL with all your plays tonight.

thecakeoff said:

Bosox :nono5:

Click to expand...

and the reasoning behind:nono5: is?

thecakeoff said:

Bosox :nono5:

Click to expand...

:lolBIG: nice call Jibba

MIKEY.1TIME said:

and the reasoning behind:nono5: is?

Click to expand...

Ok ill keep it short since the game is over and lost, Sowers coming off his best outing of the season he has good #'s vs Bosox hitters in a few at bats he isnt as bad as his record, Buckett coming back from the DL and i liked that three of the first four hitters all had home runs vs him in few at bats Cleveland playing good and of course the value +189 so it was a must play for me

I see your reasoning cakeoff. You won't get Cleveland at that price often at all this year. I just didn't like the matchup at all, and having seen Beckett more than most, I know that he's a different pitcher than he was last year when Cleveland hit him hard. In the end though, Sowers pitched much better than I expected tonight. I was on him in his last start because I know he's got solid stuff and a lot of promise. So it seems like he's finally starting to come around.


Anyway, it's looking like a solid night. So far I'm 5-1 for +6.13 units. Still have Florida (winning 9-4 in 9th) and Colorado (winning 6-3 in 7th) pending.

NICE NIGHT JIBBA


:money8: :money8: :money8:

was with you all the way on boston jibba.

Thank you jibba:money8: