This line movement is not a product of a game specific variable (micro level) rather the current dynamic of baseball public money right now (macro level). It is no secret that the two teams in which the public’s price elasticity is nearly non existent are the Yankees and Red Sox (and the Mets a distant third). No matter what price books put out on either team, the public will bet them. They have been doing it all year. That said, the Red Sox have been a money maker for blind squares year to date while the Yankees have been dead money. The public is finally starting to shift their Yankees money over to the Red Sox, so now you are getting a “double action” on the Red Sox. This will continue until the Red Sox and Yankees both revert back to their true current playing ability.
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What does this mean exactly? Although the Red Sox current intrinsic value has gone up a bit, it has gone up nowhere near the level in which the “double counting” public money (Yankees and Red Sox money) is forcing the line to move up. Even though the Red Sox have played well, it will be nearly impossible to produce a positive long term ROI going forward with the current inflated price tag caused by the current dynamics. Regarding the Yankees, public money will not go against the Yankees, so books will continue to inflate their line at the open, but don’t expect the line movement that they received in the past until the Red Sox cool off.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>What does this mean exactly? Although the Red Sox current intrinsic value has gone up a bit, it has gone up nowhere near the level in which the “double counting” public money (Yankees and Red Sox money) is forcing the line to move up. Even though the Red Sox have played well, it will be nearly impossible to produce a positive long term ROI going forward with the current inflated price tag caused by the current dynamics. Regarding the Yankees, public money will not go against the Yankees, so books will continue to inflate their line at the open, but don’t expect the line movement that they received in the past until the Red Sox cool off.
This line movement is not a product of a game specific variable (micro level) rather the current dynamic of baseball public money right now (macro level). It is no secret that the two teams in which the public’s price elasticity is nearly non existent are the Yankees and Red Sox (and the Mets a distant third). No matter what price books put out on either team, the public will bet them. They have been doing it all year. That said, the Red Sox have been a money maker for blind squares year to date while the Yankees have been dead money. The public is finally starting to shift their Yankees money over to the Red Sox, so now you are getting a “double action” on the Red Sox. This will continue until the Red Sox and Yankees both revert back to their true current playing ability.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
What does this mean exactly? Although the Red Sox current intrinsic value has gone up a bit, it has gone up nowhere near the level in which the “double counting” public money (Yankees and Red Sox money) is forcing the line to move up. Even though the Red Sox have played well, it will be nearly impossible to produce a positive long term ROI going forward with the current inflated price tag caused by the current dynamics. Regarding the Yankees, public money will not go against the Yankees, so books will continue to inflate their line at the open, but don’t expect the line movement that they received in the past until the Red Sox cool off.
Damn, I miss reading that kind of rationale. Glad to see you post your thoughts BG
