Jibba's Wednesday MLB

Jibba · May 30, 2007

Money Lines:

Favorites: 134-80 for +21.67 units
Underdogs: 49-45 for +20.63 units
Total: 175-121 for for +42.3 units

Totals: 2-1 for 1.63 units

Run Lines: 7-8 for +0.11 units

Parlays: 0-2 for -2.97 units

______________________________________________________

7-1 yesterday to pick up 10.18 units. Been awhile since I've had a day like that, but hoping that more are to come. Don't expect a repeat of yesterday, but hopefully I'll add a bit more to the bankroll today.

San Diego -131: The fact that Pittsburgh comes into this game having won 4 of 5, and the fact that Maholm pitched well in his last performance are the only two things keeping this line below -150. But after digging pretty deeply, the number still deserves to be that high. I've been riding this Padres team throughout the month of May (16-9) and will continue to do so as the month winds down.

The Pirates might be winning lately, but so are the Padres, who have taken 6 of their last 8. They have room to improve on the road, where they are right around .500, but PNC Park is a great spot to do it, considering how well the Padres have played there since the park was built. And Young is just the guy they want on the hill to help them do that, since they have won 16 of his last 22 road starts. Also, any talk of San Diego's road woes has to be looked at in light of the Pirates' 10-14 home record, which is near the bottom in baseball.

Tonight's matchup features a huge pitching mismatch in my opinion. For the Padres, Chris Young will be on the hill with his 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and .214 BAA. He's had slight problems on the road this year, but I don't think that will last considering his huge successes last year on the road. Plus, his ratios are still better than average on the road this year. Young comes into this matchup having given up only 20 hits and 5 earned runs in his last 5 starts (all in the month of May), to go along with 32 Ks in 32 innings. On the other side, Paul Maholm takes the mound for the Pirates tonight. He pitched well against the lowly Reds in his last start, but prior to that he had gone 1-4 in his previous 5 starts with a 7.62 ERA, while allowing 36 hits and 22 earned runs in only 25 innings. Plus, he's actually been better on the road this year, as can be said for most of the Pirates. I'll gladly take Young and the hot Padres tonight. 1.97 units to win 1.5.

______________________________________________________

Have a few more plays which I'll post in a bit after watching the lines. Was going to take the Brewers but it seems that one has actually dropped, which is a bit of a surprise to me.

soswalter · May 30, 2007

Good luck with the Padres.

Why do you like Milwaukee? I think they got lucky yesterday with Smoltz getting hurt, and I think there's great value with Hudson on the mound over Dave Bush.

thecakeoff · May 30, 2007

Milwaukee Brewers Team Total OVER 3.5 looks good

thecakeoff · May 30, 2007

Blue Jays are +142 and rising. :lolBIG:

Yankee backer's reasoning "no way they'll get swept two times in a row".

Jibba · May 30, 2007

Well I think the public is far too down on Bush right now and hasn't picked up on Hudson's recent regression. Bush is a much better pitcher than his record or ERA lead most to believe, especially at home. His WHIP at home this year is 1.14, which is much closer to his career norm (1.22 including this year's higher number overall). Despite his problems, he's still put up a 6.71 K/9 ratio and a 3.83 K/BB ratio. He's had two major problems this year IMO, those being the long ball and bad luck. The HRs are the big problem, but Atlanta's offense is much weaker IMO without Chipper. That has shown over the last 7 days, where the Braves have a .291 OBP (28th in MLB). Their SLG has also been well below average during that span. That's not going to be enough against a pitcher with such a low home WHIP.

The second problem with Bush is one that I generically called bad luck. He's allowing few baserunners and striking guys out at a solid clip, but when he does give up hits, he's giving them up in clusters. This is basically not much more than coincidence/bad luck. On top of this, he's really had some bad managing and defense behind him at times. For example, in his last start, the Brewers put the shift on for Gonzalez, who isn't even much of a pull hitter, and they got burned by it both times. In that game he also had a strikeout (check swing) which was not called, and was then followed by a grand slam I believe. This isn't to say the grand slam wasn't his fault, but it's to say that the luck factor evens out in the end. Eventually he's going to start spreading out the few baserunners he allows, and he'll get a few breaks, and that will really help his confidence, and in turn his wins and ERA.

Also, despite the Brewers' recent slump, we're still talking about a team that has won almost 70% of their games at home. And they'll be facing a pitcher in Hudson who has looked more like the Hudson of last year in his last 2 starts (11 ERs and 18 hits in 11.1 IPs). Finally, Hudson has been a much worse pitcher this year in day games, allowing a 4.58 ERA (2.26 at night), a 1.64 WHIP (0.92 at night), and a .319 BAA (.202 at night). It's only 3 day games to go on, but he just looks like a completely different pitcher in those games.

Anyway, still not sure I'll make it a play, as I'd like to get +120 or so to take the Brewers.

Jibba · May 30, 2007

thecakeoff said:
Blue Jays are +142 and rising. :lolBIG:

Yankee backer's reasoning "no way they'll get swept two times in a row".

Yeah, I'll likely be back on the Jays tonight. Will probably be a smaller play like I had last night (1 unit), but just hard to resist getting such a juicy number. Obviously the Yanks will win eventually, so this run has to end sometime.

As for the Brewers TT over 3.5, my leans right now are the Brewers and over 8.

thecakeoff · May 30, 2007

Jibba said:
Well I think the public is far too down on Bush right now and hasn't picked up on Hudson's recent regression. Bush is a much better pitcher than his record or ERA lead most to believe, especially at home. His WHIP at home this year is 1.14, which is much closer to his career norm (1.22 including this year's higher number overall). Despite his problems, he's still put up a 6.71 K/9 ratio and a 3.83 K/BB ratio. He's had two major problems this year IMO, those being the long ball and bad luck. The HRs are the big problem, but Atlanta's offense is much weaker IMO without Chipper. That has shown over the last 7 days, where the Braves have a .291 OBP (28th in MLB). Their SLG has also been well below average during that span. That's not going to be enough against a pitcher with such a low home WHIP.

The second problem with Bush is one that I generically called bad luck. He's allowing few baserunners and striking guys out at a solid clip, but when he does give up hits, he's giving them up in clusters. This is basically not much more than coincidence/bad luck. On top of this, he's really had some bad managing and defense behind him at times. For example, in his last start, the Brewers put the shift on for Gonzalez, who isn't even much of a pull hitter, and they got burned by it both times. In that game he also had a strikeout (check swing) which was not called, and was then followed by a grand slam I believe. This isn't to say the grand slam wasn't his fault, but it's to say that the luck factor evens out in the end. Eventually he's going to start spreading out the few baserunners he allows, and he'll get a few breaks, and that will really help his confidence, and in turn his wins and ERA.

Also, despite the Brewers' recent slump, we're still talking about a team that has won almost 70% of their games at home. And they'll be facing a pitcher in Hudson who has looked more like the Hudson of last year in his last 2 starts (11 ERs and 18 hits in 11.1 IPs). Finally, Hudson has been a much worse pitcher this year in day games, allowing a 4.58 ERA (2.26 at night), a 1.64 WHIP (0.92 at night), and a .319 BAA (.202 at night). It's only 3 day games to go on, but he just looks like a completely different pitcher in those games.

Anyway, still not sure I'll make it a play, as I'd like to get +120 or so to take the Brewers.

Thanks,for some reason i liked the Brewers as home doggies.Tim Hudson has came back down to earth, but then i looked at Dave Bush's game log, and saw that he gave up seven runs in San Diego, so i'll still probably play them if i can get +125 since, you said he's not as bad of his record.

Jibba · May 30, 2007

thecakeoff said:
Thanks,for some reason i liked the Brewers as home doggies.Tim Hudson has came back down to earth, but then i looked at Dave Bush's game log, and saw that he gave up seven runs in San Diego, so i'll still probably play them if i can get +125 since, you said he's not as bad of his record.

I'm just hoping I'm right about Bush. He's been a solid second half pitcher in the past, and I'm just hoping he turns it on a little earlier this year. Plus, Atlanta's offense without Chipper just doesn't seem the same. At this point though, I think +125 is a stretch and am not even sure if I'll get +120. Still might take them at +115, but have to think it over.

rouxdogg · May 30, 2007

Nice writeup on the Braves/Brewers game. GL today.

Jibba · May 30, 2007

Thanks rouxdogg.

Oakland -1.5, -102: You'll rarely find me on an Oakland run line, as I don't have much faith in their offense. But against Koronka, I'll bite. Especially since the A's should have Milton Bradley back this afternoon. After being shut out yesterday by the Rangers' awful pitching staff, I just can't help but think they'll make up for that and then some this afternoon. Texas is the worst team in baseball on the road, and I can't imagine they'll be able to pull out a miracle against Haren today. Like the money line as well, but the run line seems like a bit of a hedge since I really don't see this as a pitching duel by any stretch of the imagination. 1.53 units to win 1.5.

buffettgambler · May 30, 2007

Jibba said:
Well I think the public is far too down on Bush right now and hasn't picked up on Hudson's recent regression. Bush is a much better pitcher than his record or ERA lead most to believe, especially at home. His WHIP at home this year is 1.14, which is much closer to his career norm (1.22 including this year's higher number overall). Despite his problems, he's still put up a 6.71 K/9 ratio and a 3.83 K/BB ratio. He's had two major problems this year IMO, those being the long ball and bad luck. The HRs are the big problem, but Atlanta's offense is much weaker IMO without Chipper. That has shown over the last 7 days, where the Braves have a .291 OBP (28th in MLB). Their SLG has also been well below average during that span. That's not going to be enough against a pitcher with such a low home WHIP.

The second problem with Bush is one that I generically called bad luck. He's allowing few baserunners and striking guys out at a solid clip, but when he does give up hits, he's giving them up in clusters. This is basically not much more than coincidence/bad luck. On top of this, he's really had some bad managing and defense behind him at times. For example, in his last start, the Brewers put the shift on for Gonzalez, who isn't even much of a pull hitter, and they got burned by it both times. In that game he also had a strikeout (check swing) which was not called, and was then followed by a grand slam I believe. This isn't to say the grand slam wasn't his fault, but it's to say that the luck factor evens out in the end. Eventually he's going to start spreading out the few baserunners he allows, and he'll get a few breaks, and that will really help his confidence, and in turn his wins and ERA.

Also, despite the Brewers' recent slump, we're still talking about a team that has won almost 70% of their games at home. And they'll be facing a pitcher in Hudson who has looked more like the Hudson of last year in his last 2 starts (11 ERs and 18 hits in 11.1 IPs). Finally, Hudson has been a much worse pitcher this year in day games, allowing a 4.58 ERA (2.26 at night), a 1.64 WHIP (0.92 at night), and a .319 BAA (.202 at night). It's only 3 day games to go on, but he just looks like a completely different pitcher in those games.

Anyway, still not sure I'll make it a play, as I'd like to get +120 or so to take the Brewers.

Solid as always Jibba. Great analysis on Bush, and all comments hold strong substance. There are a lot of Sabermetric indicators supporting your claim, as his Delta-H is positive for the first time in his career (and is one of the highest in the league), and his Delta –R is once again in positive territory this year. Lastly, his NRA is greater than his DERA, another indicator supporting bad luck and defense behind him. All these indicators show a pitcher pitching better than his current numbers would indicate.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

ffice

ffice" /><o

> </o

>
That said, there has been somewhat of a structural change in his pitching this year. Although he is still one of the better pitchers at limiting walks, he has not located his fastball as well as years past early in counts, forcing him to throw his best out pitch, his curveball, at a lower rate this year. This has lead to a higher ratio of balls put in play being a fastball rather than one of his secondary pitches, which has lead to a higher hit ratio of balls put in play. This contradicts some of the Sabermetric indicators and shows it is more than bad luck, and is partially a product of worse pitching.
<o

> </o

>
I am “bullish” on him as well, and expect him to improve drastically off his current numbers. But expecting him to pitch at the level I thought he would prior to years start may be more wishful thinking.
<o

> </o

>
Keep up the good work.

SonnySixKill · May 30, 2007

Jibba, Padres line up to -142 now. Any thoughts on the Dbacks and Cubs, thax.

Jibba · May 30, 2007

Thanks a lot BG. Great info as always. We sure miss that kind of deep analysis around here. I am likely going to wait a bit longer to decide whether this will be a play, but I am leaning toward it at the moment. I do agree that expecting him to pitch at a level many thought he would pre-season is a stretch, but I also think that many people expected a bit too much from him this year to begin with. On the other hand, at some point we have to chalk up poor results to more than just bad luck. And the fact that he's on the Brewers weighs against calling it simply bad luck, as it's hard to be that prone to bad breaks on a team that has played so well thus far this season.

Hope you're still padding the bankroll these days. Always a pleasure.

thecakeoff · May 30, 2007

buffettgambler said:
Solid as always Jibba. Great analysis on Bush, and all comments hold strong substance. There are a lot of Sabermetric indicators supporting your claim, as his Delta-H is positive for the first time in his career (and is one of the highest in the league), and his Delta –R is once again in positive territory this year. Lastly, his NRA is greater than his DERA, another indicator supporting bad luck and defense behind him. All these indicators show a pitcher pitching better than his current numbers would indicate.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
That said, there has been somewhat of a structural change in his pitching this year. Although he is still one of the better pitchers at limiting walks, he has not located his fastball as well as years past early in counts, forcing him to throw his best out pitch, his curveball, at a lower rate this year. This has lead to a higher ratio of balls put in play being a fastball rather than one of his secondary pitches, which has lead to a higher hit ratio of balls put in play. This contradicts some of the Sabermetric indicators and shows it is more than bad luck, and is partially a product of worse pitching.
<o></o>
I am “bullish” on him as well, and expect him to improve drastically off his current numbers. But expecting him to pitch at the level I thought he would prior to years start may be more wishful thinking.
<o></o>
Keep up the good work.

Hey BG e-mail me your picks and analysis.:thumbsup:

Jibba · May 30, 2007

Sonny SixKill said:
Jibba, Padres line up to -142 now. Any thoughts on the Dbacks and Cubs, thax.

Just noticed the Pads line myself. VIP is usually very slow to catch up with line movements, but even they jumped it to -144 already.

I actually like the Phils today, despite the D-Backs' solid play lately. I don't expect Randy to be at top form tonight (whatever his top form may be these days) after the injury. Moyer looked good against Arizona a couple weeks ago when he beat Johnson and I like him pitching at home to avoid the sweep. I think it also helps that Arizona exploded for 11 runs yesterday and may have a bit of a letdown today. With the line having dropped to -103 on Philly, I think that's where the value is on this one.

As for the Cubs, I don't have a strong opinion on that one. My initial thoughts were that the Cubs should only be favored at about -120 though. Mitre has been pitching great and I think Lilly is finally starting to drop off, which was only a matter of time IMO. If I had to take a side in that one right now, without looking deeper, I'd go with Florida and the + money against a floundering Cubs team.

Brock Landers · May 30, 2007

soswalter said:
Good luck with the Padres.

Why do you like Milwaukee? I think they got lucky yesterday with Smoltz getting hurt, and I think there's great value with Hudson on the mound over Dave Bush.

Hudson has been pathetic in his last 2 starts, not good at all

Jibba · May 30, 2007

Milwaukee +119: See above. 1.5 units to win 1.79.

Milwaukee/Atlanta over 8, -107: 1.07 units to win 1.

Hate taking a side and a total in the same game, but I think there's solid value in both. Also following carolinakid on the Chi Sox today in the other early game. Want to get these in since the over is skyrocketing. Most sites bumped it to 8.5 but the over at MB is still at pretty low juice despite the fact that it was -120 most of the morning.

thecakeoff · May 30, 2007

I'm on Milwaukee +118 and team total over 3.5 -120 :banger:

Jibba · May 30, 2007

Let's get 'em bro. :aktion033

SonnySixKill · May 30, 2007

BG is on the Brew Crew

Jibba's Wednesday MLB

New member

New member

Murder is like a workout plan gotta keep a fat bur

Murder is like a workout plan gotta keep a fat bur

New member

New member

Murder is like a workout plan gotta keep a fat bur

New member

New member

New member

New member

New member

New member

Murder is like a workout plan gotta keep a fat bur

New member

Cui servire est regnare

New member

Murder is like a workout plan gotta keep a fat bur

New member

New member

Forum statistics

Share this page