system thought....

auggiedawg · May 30, 2007

I saw this system posted on another forum and found it to be pretty interesting. The more I looked into it and thought about it, I was thinking the ROI could be a little better.

the original system was to take the highest ML favorite and parlay it with the next 3 highest ML favorites.....for instance

yanks -240 vs TB
angels -210 vs oak
braves -190 vs phils
cubs -185 vs marlins

so, you would parlay the...

yanks -240/angels -210
yanks-240/braves -190
yanks-240/cubs -185

You put 1 unit on each parlay. If that loses, the next day, you place 2 units on the highest ML favorite just like u did the previous day. Always trying to make back 1 unit.

So, i thought since dogs would may make a better investment (and i actually tried this for a while and made out ok....dont have the exact #'s, but was very promising). So, now i would take the highest ML favorite and parlay them with underdogs from +110 to +160. ....So in this case, you would take the yanks -240 and parlay them with the following......

yanks -240/nats +155
yanks -240/a's +115
yanks -240/cards +140
yanks -240/twins +120
yanks -240/rockies +150
yanks -240/brews +135

Basically, out of the 6 or so games, you just need to hit like half the games as long as yanks win. If yanks win, you lose all games obviously, but the next day, you just put 2 units on highest ML and parlay them.

Maybe someone can look into this more. Maybe this is a terrible system and not even worth the time. Maybe filter it to where only certain dogs are played and a certain number of parlays are played

Like i said, i tried this system for about 2 weeks , showed decent results.

opinions are welcomed.
thanks

SmokeyLa · May 30, 2007

Too much hinging on one team

auggiedawg · May 30, 2007

Smokey La said:
Too much hinging on one team

Yea, i understand that smokey and thanks for the reply. If that key team loses, tomorrow, you just bet 2 units to make 1 unit back. Although you would have to have a parlay calculator to figure out how much you would actually need to bet on the "key" team in order to make 1 unit back, it could be doable..

note: Also, something that could be done is to take the 2 highest ML favorites and parlay them with the dogs that range from +110 to +160.....says yanks-240 and braves -200...both are parlayed with dogs....just a thought though

BillyWaltersJr+ · May 30, 2007

Here is a method I am thinking of, most likely with the use of two different books:

Parlay #1 (Bookmaker): Boston Red Sox -182/Toronto Blue Jays +148
Risking 1 unit to win 2.8426

Parlay #2 (Greek): Cleaveland Indians +152/NY Yankees -165
Risking 1 unit to win 3.0473

I don't know about the logic of doing such a parlay, but it seems like it could work. Your method may be better, I am not totally sure. I haven't really thought much about it.

If none of these hit tonight, just double your units for tommorow so that you earn back the two units that you may lose tonight. Seems like it would be smart to start one of these mini-chase parlay systems at the beginning of a series, but I guess it could work in other ways.

auggiedawg · May 30, 2007

Intrinzik said:
Here is a method I am thinking of, most likely with the use of two different books:

Parlay #1 (Bookmaker): Boston Red Sox -182/Toronto Blue Jays +148
Risking 1 unit to win 2.8426

Parlay #2 (Greek): Cleaveland Indians +152/NY Yankees -165
Risking 1 unit to win 3.0473

I don't know about the logic of doing such a parlay, but it seems like it could work. Your method may be better, I am not totally sure. I haven't really thought much about it.

If none of these hit tonight, just double your units for tommorow so that you earn back the two units that you may lose tonight. Seems like it would be smart to start one of these mini-chase parlay systems at the beginning of a series, but I guess it could work in other ways.

hmm, interesting thought intrinzik. Ill have to think about that one. LOOKS good. You cleared 2 units tonite on that basically.
:aktion033

what are your filters?
who do u decide to bet on?

auggiedawg · May 31, 2007

intrinzik?
anyone?

:monsters-

Bookie Buster · May 31, 2007

I like Intrinzik idea there.

Bookie Buster · May 31, 2007

For 5/31..

Would this be the play for tonight.

920 los angeles angels -220 / 917 texas rangers +156

100 to win 272

918 seattle mariners -171 / 919 baltimore orioles +195

100 to win 368

This would also be the first games of the series.

What do you think:ughhh:

auggiedawg · May 31, 2007

Bookie Buster said:
Would this be the play for tonight.

920 los angeles angels -220 / 917 texas rangers +156

100 to win 272

918 seattle mariners -171 / 919 baltimore orioles +195

100 to win 368

This would also be the first games of the series.

What do you think:ughhh:

yea bookie, i like the idea too......would u play it on a 3 or 4 game series, or just play this on a random 4 teams? Im curious as to the filter or who u play????

Just play the 2 highest ML favorites and the opposing dog from the other highest ML fav.?

:realtongu

BillyWaltersJr+ · May 31, 2007

auggiedawg said:
hmm, interesting thought intrinzik. Ill have to think about that one. LOOKS good. You cleared 2 units tonite on that basically.
:aktion033

what are your filters?
who do u decide to bet on?

I'm still trying to think of some filters, but a few would be any big underdog team that has gone 4-6 or worse in the last 10 games. Also play any big favorite only if they are 6-4 or better in their last 10 games.

That is just an idea. For tommorow I am not going to implement that, and am just going to see how this "system" plays out for the next few days.

Here are the parlays to play tommorow (I am choosing the teams that I like best to lose at least one game in a series and vice versa for the underdog):

Parlay #1 (Bookmaker): Seattle Mariners -150/Detroit Tigers +115
Risking 1 unit to win 2.5833

Parlay #2 (Greek): Cleveland Indians -135/Texas Rangers +125
Risking 1 unit to win 2.9167

System Record: (1-0, +2.0473 units)

What I am worried about are these teams completing their system plays on different days. For example, the Mariners win and the Indians win, but both the Tigers and Rangers lose then. Or, for another example, the Mariners lose but the Tigers win. Therefore, I think that the original, unmodified system that you first posted would work better. I will monitor both for the next little while, so here are the plays for that system tommorow:

Parlay #1: LAA Angels -200/Toronto Blue Jays -160
Risking 1 unit to win 1.4375

Parlay #2: LAA Angels -200/Milwaukee Brewers -157
Risking 1 unit to win 1.4554

Parlay #3: LAA Angels -200/Colorado Rockies -156
Risking 1 unit to win 1.4615

Finally, I wanted to do a little back checking of this system, so here are the results using this system over the past couple of days:

Plays on 05/26/07:
Parlay #1: St Louis Cardinals -179/Arizona Diamondbacks -174
Risking 1 unit to win 1.4544 (WON)
Parlay #2: St Louis Cardinals -179/Cincinnati Reds -173
Risking 1 unit to win 1.4596 (LOSS)
Parlay #3: St Louis Cardinals/New York Mets -149
Risking 1 unit to win 1.6047 (WON)
05/26/07 Results: (2-1, +1.5995)

Plays on 05/27/07:
Parlay #1: San Diego Padres -173/St Louis Cardinals -168
Risking 2 units to win 3.0347 (LOSS)
Parlay #2: San Diego Padres -173/San Francisco Giants -156
Risking 1 unit to win 1.5896 (LOSS)
Parlay #3: San Diego Padres -173/

Plays on 05/29/07:
Boston Red Sox -179/Detroit Tigers -171
Risked 1 unit to win

If you want to you can finish it by just looking at Covers.com. I don't have the time ot finish it right now, but the results look decent. Let's give it a go.

BillyWaltersJr+ · May 31, 2007

auggiedawg said:
yea bookie, i like the idea too......would u play it on a 3 or 4 game series, or just play this on a random 4 teams? Im curious as to the filter or who u play????

Just play the 2 highest ML favorites and the opposing dog from the other highest ML fav.?

:realtongu

Seems best for a 3 or 4 game series, just like using a chase system.

auggiedawg · May 31, 2007

Intrinzik said:
What I am worried about are these teams completing their system plays on different days. For example, the Mariners win and the Indians win, but both the Tigers and Rangers lose then. Or, for another example, the Mariners lose but the Tigers win. Therefore, I think that the original, unmodified system that you first posted would work better. I will monitor both for the next little while, so here are the plays for that system tommorow:

Parlay #1: LAA Angels -200/Toronto Blue Jays -160
Risking 1 unit to win 1.4375

Parlay #2: LAA Angels -200/Milwaukee Brewers -157
Risking 1 unit to win 1.4554

Parlay #3: LAA Angels -200/Colorado Rockies -156
Risking 1 unit to win 1.4615

intrinsik....i personally think u would like it better if u used dogs instead of favorites on the backside of the parlay....instead of

laa-200/tor-160 use laa-200/cubs+150
laa-200/mil-157 use laa-200/phils +135

roi is better and dogs only have to win a few to win money

BillyWaltersJr+ · May 31, 2007

auggiedawg said:
intrinsik....i personally think u would like it better if u used dogs instead of favorites on the backside of the parlay....instead of

laa-200/tor-160 use laa-200/cubs+150
laa-200/mil-157 use laa-200/phils +135

roi is better and dogs only have to win a few to win money

But if I am always playing big dogs, there are bound to be days where only a few dogs win and then I will have to be chasing, possibly for a longer time. Favorites are more likely to get the job done in 3-4 games, which is what I am running the chase for.

Anyways, we could simply run both and see which comes out on top. I will repost todays plays with updated lines soon (the plays I posted above were from last night, when I typed all of that up).

BillyWaltersJr+ · May 31, 2007

I am just going to track this method of the system, like I started with yesterday. We'll see how things go...

Parlay #1: Seattle Mariners -176/Detroit Tigers +127
Risking 1 unit to win 2.5598

Parlay #2: Cleveland Indians -147/Texas Rangers +156
Risking 1 unit to win 3.3015

auggiedawg · Jun 1, 2007

Bookie Buster said:
Would this be the play for tonight.

920 los angeles angels -220 / 917 texas rangers +156

100 to win 272

918 seattle mariners -171 / 919 baltimore orioles +195

100 to win 368

This would also be the first games of the series.

What do you think:ughhh:

intrinzik....i know u said u are gonna try and use this as a chase system..How?, as i am just curious....Are u just going on how u "feel" who wont get swept, and vice versa......

Just would like some filters instead of "feel"....ya know?
I know u said u are looking into it, so, i understand if u dont know yet....just trying to help....

im still thinking too

:money8:

auggiedawg · Jun 1, 2007

Intrinzik said:
I am just going to track this method of the system, like I started with yesterday. We'll see how things go...

Parlay #1: Seattle Mariners -176/Detroit Tigers +127
Risking 1 unit to win 2.5598

Parlay #2: Cleveland Indians -147/Texas Rangers +156
Risking 1 unit to win 3.3015

intrinsik or bookie buster......what do u guys think? Im curious as to this sytem.....

Intrinsik....i like ur original thoughts, but also liked mine too.....maybe somehow conglomerate the both....haha.....Actually, intrinsik, what would you play today/tonite?

:modemman:

Bookie Buster · Jun 1, 2007

Bookie Buster said:
Would this be the play for tonight.

920 los angeles angels -220 / 917 texas rangers +156

100 to win 272 LOSER

918 seattle mariners -171 / 919 baltimore orioles +195

100 to win 368 WINNER

This would also be the first games of the series.

What do you think:ughhh:

Well split the two but still win $268, as far as this goes I would like to see how this pans out but look forward to see what you all come up with and I will post the games for to night soon.

auggiedawg · Jun 1, 2007

Bookie Buster said:
Well split the two but still win $268, as far as this goes I would like to see how this pans out but look forward to see what you all come up with and I will post the games for to night soon.

bookie....on those games last nite.....did u just take the 2 highest ML favorites and put them in a parlay with the opposite dogs from each side? That looks like what u did, if that makes sense to ya.

also, would u think we could just do this everynite on the nite's 2 highest ML's, and the opposite dogs......if that loses, we just double the units the next nite.....for instance tonite's play would be

SD -215 / BALT +190
risk 1 to win 3.25

LAA -210 / NATS +195
risk 1 to win 3.35

what u think?

Bookie Buster · Jun 1, 2007

How about this for 6/1

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
</TD><TD>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>974 tampa bay devil rays -200 / 975 baltimore orioles +190

100 to win 335

976 los angeles angels -200 / 973 kansas city royals +180

100 to win 320

I like the LAA and KC parlay.

Bookie Buster · Jun 1, 2007

auggiedawg said:
bookie....on those games last nite.....did u just take the 2 highest ML favorites and put them in a parlay with the opposite dogs from each side? That looks like what u did, if that makes sense to ya.

also, would u think we could just do this everynite on the nite's 2 highest ML's, and the opposite dogs......if that loses, we just double the units the next nite.....for instance tonite's play would be

SD -215 / BALT +190
risk 1 to win 3.25

LAA -210 / NATS +195
risk 1 to win 3.35

what u think?

Yes that is what I did, I do like the idea of taking the 2 highest Favs and the 2 highest dogs as you have done above, I would like to do some back tracking from this year and see how this has done so far this year. I might look into this tonight. I do think that we can treat this as a chase system.