There exists a lot of behaviroal and psychological characteristics gamblers possess that prevent them from seeing the bigger picture of why baseball handicapping systems are not all that they are cracked up to be.
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Handicappers often find systems via data mining rather than a logical basis, and base their worth on past results rather than an ongoing concern. The result is that they often make bets predicated on variables that hold no correlating factors to the outcome of games. They also end up betting against 100 other systems that appear just as powerful on a post hoc basis, yet hold just as little substance. There is also a self-fulfilling prophecy embedded in the few systems that do hold substance, which is pure demand that bids up prices to the point in which the potential positive expected value the system possesses is dissipated or even over bid to a point of negative returns.
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Betting blindly in systems defies the most important variable in baseball handicapping- the price. The sooner one realizes that we do not bet on teams, rather bet on price, which is a derivative of the team. Systems fail to accept such a concept, and will bet on the team that falls under the system, no matter the price they carry (i.e. will place a bet on team A if they are trading at -120 or -320). Any system that does such quickly becomes obsolete.
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As we all know, there are many variables and entities that affect an outcome of a baseball game. The obvious ones being starting pitching, bullpens, hitting, situational match ups, and current level of play. The problems with a lot of systems are that they fail to accept all variables that influence the outcome of a game, forcing even an accurately quantified system vulnerable to less that 100% correlating error. Systems that only take in account hitting situations, or only pitching situations, or only streaks, fail to quantify all the other important variables that have a material impact on value (not price) of a particular team.
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Systems are simplistic in nature that lack the thoroughness needed to be in the small 2-5% of success handicappers. They handcuff a handicapper’s ability to use all available tools. They should be treated at best as a crutch in deciphering what teams to put wagers on. This is only true when the system is treated as going concern that possess a logical base that should allow them to expect forward results in line with past ones, and then quantified in a way that factor in the price you pay for a team. Otherwise it is merely another system helping build yet another casino.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>Handicappers often find systems via data mining rather than a logical basis, and base their worth on past results rather than an ongoing concern. The result is that they often make bets predicated on variables that hold no correlating factors to the outcome of games. They also end up betting against 100 other systems that appear just as powerful on a post hoc basis, yet hold just as little substance. There is also a self-fulfilling prophecy embedded in the few systems that do hold substance, which is pure demand that bids up prices to the point in which the potential positive expected value the system possesses is dissipated or even over bid to a point of negative returns.
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> </o>Betting blindly in systems defies the most important variable in baseball handicapping- the price. The sooner one realizes that we do not bet on teams, rather bet on price, which is a derivative of the team. Systems fail to accept such a concept, and will bet on the team that falls under the system, no matter the price they carry (i.e. will place a bet on team A if they are trading at -120 or -320). Any system that does such quickly becomes obsolete.
<o
> </o>As we all know, there are many variables and entities that affect an outcome of a baseball game. The obvious ones being starting pitching, bullpens, hitting, situational match ups, and current level of play. The problems with a lot of systems are that they fail to accept all variables that influence the outcome of a game, forcing even an accurately quantified system vulnerable to less that 100% correlating error. Systems that only take in account hitting situations, or only pitching situations, or only streaks, fail to quantify all the other important variables that have a material impact on value (not price) of a particular team.
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> </o>Systems are simplistic in nature that lack the thoroughness needed to be in the small 2-5% of success handicappers. They handcuff a handicapper’s ability to use all available tools. They should be treated at best as a crutch in deciphering what teams to put wagers on. This is only true when the system is treated as going concern that possess a logical base that should allow them to expect forward results in line with past ones, and then quantified in a way that factor in the price you pay for a team. Otherwise it is merely another system helping build yet another casino.
