Jibba's Thursday MLB

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Money Lines:

Favorites: 136-80 for +24.17 units
Underdogs: 51-48 for +20.3 units
Total: 175-121 for for +44.47 units

Totals: 3-1 for 2.63 units

Run Lines: 8-8 for +1.61 units

Parlays: 1-2 for -1.97 units

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7-3 on the day yesterday to pick up another 5.67 units. Feels great to have recouped my big losses from last week and then some. Hopefully I can keep it going today. After 2 days of riding dogs hard, it's back to laying chalk for me with some solid favorites. Watching a number of other lines and need to do a bit more research on some of the games.

Mariners -132: I don't look forward to particular matchups too often, but when it comes to Cha Seung Baek playing the Rangers, I can't get enough. Despite a bad performance against them in his first game of the season (a game which the M's still won 5-4), in 4 career starts against the Rangers, Baek is 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a .198 BAA. And he's coming in off one of his best starts of the season against KC, where he threw 74 of his 98 pitches for strikes while cruising through seven innings.

Considering how badly the Rangers are playing this year (and it should be noted that one more loss in May will make it the team's worst May ever), and how well Seattle has played as of late, I'm surprised to get Seattle at only -132. On top of this though, Vincent Padilla will be on the hill for Texas. The Rangers have lost nine of Padilla's eleven starts this year (as well as every one of his road starts), and he comes in with a 5.77 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a .276 BAA. These numbers are much worse on the road, where he has an ERA of 7.59, a WHIP of 1.94, and a BAA of .316. 1.98 units to win 1.5.

Reds -120: When teams are playing as poorly as the Astros currently are, they just find a way to lose games. And on top of Houston's awful play of late, there is a huge pitching mismatch in this one. Many people are ready to give up on Bronson Arroyo. And while I'm not his biggest fan, he deserves more respect than he's getting from the book in this one. Arroyo has been lights out on the road this year, putting up a 1.94 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .238 BAA away from home. His horrible performances at home this year have really skewed his stats, but I think he'll handle this Astros offense with ease tonight.

Houston sends Woody Williams to the mound tonight. Williams has been simply awful so far this year, putting up a 1-7 record in 11 starts with a 5.65 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and a .293 BAA. Those stats are even worse at home, where he sports a 6.23 ERA, a 1.75 WHIP, and a .330 BAA. He's also among the worst in the league in HRs allowed, having served up 12 gopher balls already this year. And it doesn't help that Griffey has gone 13 for 34 against him in his career with 5 HRs and a .500 OBP against Williams. I just think Woody is done and that this line is too low. Sure, Houston has to win eventually, but I'm happy to lay this chalk with the Reds. I just got -117, but by the time I got all this written out the best line available is now -120 so I'll use that. 1.8 units to win 1.5.

Padres -129: After riding San Diego all throughout May, I'll finish the month the same way. San Diego's pitching has been incredible this month (and this year), and I think we'll see more of the same from the crafy Maddux tonight. The Padres have never lost a series in PNC Park, and I don't think Shawn Chacon is the pitcher to get the Pirates their first series win against the Pads. Chacon has plummeted from his days with Colorado and the Yankees, and I really don't like his chances now that he's in the Pirates' rotation. There's really not much more to say about this one really. The Padres are playing far better right now. Their pitchers are performing night in and night out. Maddux is on the mound against a team he's had success against in the past. The Pirates are horrible at home and are playing poorly. And Shawn Chacon is on the hill for Pittsburgh. 1.94 units to win 1.5.

Mets -137: After being shutout for the first time this season, I love the Mets to bounce back in this spot. Despite how incredible Cain pitches on the road (1.67 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, .140 BAA in 5 road starts), the Giants are 1-6 in his last 7 starts away from home. Even more amazingly, and I really had to do a double-take on this, the Giants have lost 11 of Cain's last 13 starts. That's some truly tough luck. Regardless though, I don't see that luck changing tonight.

The Mets are heating up again even with last night's loss (and I was on the Giants yesterday), and that should continue with Orlando Hernandez heading back to the hill for his 3rd start since coming off the DL. In his first 2 starts since, he's been almost unhittable, going 13 innings while allowing 6 hits and 0 runs while striking out 9. In fact, aside from one awful start against the Nats, Hernandez has given up only 3 earned runs and 16 hits in 5 starts this year. The Giants have won only 4 of their last 13 matchups in Shea, and I see that trend continuing tonight. 2.06 units to win 1.5.

________________________________________________________

BOL to everyone on their cards today.
 

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i dont know if anyone noticed but Astros lost 10 in a row and are 0-10 last 10 lol, worst than Cinnci's streak and nowone noticed, has someone fade astros lately, dont know what to say jibba, dont like to back Reds they won both games on the edge but Williams record 1-7 makes me go with Reds. On the other side i will be with you on Seatle Mariners, Padilla is a guy to fade he's 2-7 on the season and still starting, i'll fade him on all his starts, like i faded Fossum. Good luck today, let me know your thougt about Angels.
 

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i saw your thought about angels in yesterday's thread thanks and good luck today.
 

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if you like orioles in that game what do you think over 3 runs team total listed at pinny ? lol :think2:
 

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i saw your thought about angels in yesterday's thread thanks and good luck today.

If you want the Halos, take a look at the run line. At +102, it's probably a decent play. But I've always loved getting hot teams as huge underdogs.

As for fading pitchers or teams, it can be a very solid way to bet bases at times, but they all win from time to time so we just have to be careful. BOL today man.
 

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Orioles +206: I hate betting against the Angels at home, but they just don't deserve this line. The O's have won 5 straight, are hitting and pitching very well right now, and can get to .500 with a win. Burres has looked good in his last 3 starts, and if he can hold Boston to 2 runs over 5 innings in Boston, I don't see why he can't do the same to a slightly weaker LAA offense in LA. Confidence means a lot in this game, and I imagine the O's have a little of that right now. Baltimore has a better team than what we've seen so far this year though, and I think they're finally starting to come around. Obviously I think the Angels will win more likely than not, but I can't see why this line is over 2-1. After just my initial look at the game, I had the line somewhere between -160 and -170. I'll roll the dice with 2-1+ odds. 1.5 units to win 3.09.
 

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if you like orioles in that game what do you think over 3 runs team total listed at pinny ? lol :think2:

I'm not particularly good at totals in general, nevermind team totals, which I don't think I've ever bet. My guess though, is that I wouldn't like the play because I'm not getting 2-1 odds.
 

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Jibba you dont know how much i love the Mariners i watched Cha Seung Baek last outing he looked fucking great
 

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Jibba you dont know how much i love the Mariners

Same here. It's the one play I really loved coming into today. I've turned over a new leaf for the time being though, and will not play it for any more than the others. Just been burned too many times in the past by doing that, especially during CBB season last year. I've done ok with it this year, but when I realized that I'd likely be up 8-10 extra units this year if I hadn't bothered with the bigger plays, I decided to give it up for awhile. Hopefully in the future I'll have enough discipline to occasionally play a game for more than my standard play, and to win regularly enough to be profitable, but for now it's back to basically flat-betting. The only difference is that some days, like yesterday, I'll play some bets for less than my standard (if I think I may be on tilt or something like that). Almost did so with the O's play, but decided to play it full. BOL today man.

And who's your big dog for the day? I know you seem to have one almost everyday lately.
 

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Same here. It's the one play I really loved coming into today. I've turned over a new leaf for the time being though, and will not play it for any more than the others. Just been burned too many times in the past by doing that, especially during CBB season last year. I've done ok with it this year, but when I realized that I'd likely be up 8-10 extra units this year if I hadn't bothered with the bigger plays, I decided to give it up for awhile. Hopefully in the future I'll have enough discipline to occasionally play a game for more than my standard play, and to win regularly enough to be profitable, but for now it's back to basically flat-betting. The only difference is that some days, like yesterday, I'll play some bets for less than my standard (if I think I may be on tilt or something like that). Almost did so with the O's play, but decided to play it full. BOL today man.

And who's your big dog for the day? I know you seem to have one almost everyday lately.
O's i didnt even research that game :lolBIG: also going to look at the White Sox and Cards
 

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Like the Chi Sox. Just waiting to see where the line ends up. Buerhle shouldn't be a huge dog to Toronto IMO. Haven't looked enough at the Cards, although still kicking myself for not taking them yesterday.
 

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I made Seattle Mariners a 3* play thinking of adding the RL 1* -1.5 and *0.5 -2.5 but ill be pissed if they only win by 1
 

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Yeah, I may consider that -1.5 for a small play too, but I generally stay away from doing that. Haven't even looked at that line.
 
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Jibba I don't post often at this particular site but I read your writeups because you know what you are talking about. As far as taking a shot on the Orioles, here is how I broke down the game.. I can understand the ML shot, I have Angels RL as my play. I played it last night at Bet Jam and now its -105 on the RL.

Angels -1.5 +110:
I had my eye on this game the minute I saw the matchup. Yea I didn't give Escobar his due respect last start only because of what the Yankees have done to him in Yankee stadium. He shut me up quickly. At home though he has been very dominant and that deserves to be mentioned. Angels are 7-2 when he takes the mound and on the yr he has been pretty stout. In 5 of Escobar's last 6 starts he has worked atleast 7innings giving up no more than 2er. The lone exception is a start in Detroit, 2 starts ago, where he went 2.1ip and was tagged for 6runs.

At home: 4-1, 1.76era, 6g, 41ip, 32h, 33k, 12bb and batters hitting .216

Baltimore is a team who just got a little hot (5games) because they played the cold Royals and the light hitting A's. However, Angels have won 5 of their last 6 so the streaks even out.

Burress will take the mound for the Orioles and although he has done alright he isnt going to work long innings. He has only started 4 games this yr. If he makes it to 6 in this game it would be a very good outting, that still leaves 3 innings for that bullpen to pitch and I don't have to say anything more about them.

Burress this yr as a starter: 2-2, 4.58era, 19.2ip, 24h, 11bb, 16k and batters hitting .300 off him
Burress overall this yr: 2-2, 3.27era, 33ip, 33h, 19bb
Burress Away this yr: 1-1, 2.08era, 4g, 2gs, 17.1ip, 16h, 9bb, 17k.

Angels have never seen Burress but he is a LHP who can struggle a little bit with control. I think he really goes 5ip with 3er or so. You now have to throw the Oriole bullpen into the mix for 4innings and that has atleast 1-2runs written all over it.

Escobar in his career vs. Orioles: 12-4, 3.76era, 17g, 131.2ip, 128h

Orioles vs. Esobar: Roberts = .188 in 32ab, Tejada = .138 in 29ab, Hernandez = .200 in 10ab, Millar = .150 in 20ab, Gibbons = .250 in 28ab, Mora = .222 in 27ab, Patterson = .400 in 10ab, Huff = .300 in 20ab

The main offense of the Orioles starts and ends with Roberts and Tejada and seeing that they don't hit Escobar, I am expecting the Oriole offense to hit a road block.

Angels at home = 19-7
Orioles on the road = 11-16

Angels took 5/6 last yr in LA from Orioles.
Angels vs. LHP: .278 Overall, .291 L10 games
Orioles vs. RHP: A consistent .260

There is nothing else that needs to be said about this game and I am not over thinking it. I have the better team + better starting pitcher + better offense + better bullpen. Angels 6-1, 5-1, 6-2, 7-3, something like that but by more than 2runs
 

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Mets line now -126 on MB, should I get more?

That scares me. Could just be the public hitting the Giants because of their win last night and because of Cain's unreal stats on the road this year. Or maybe they just don't like Hernandez. But I hate seeing a line move that strongly (and quickly) against me.
 

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Jibba I don't post often at this particular site but I read your writeups because you know what you are talking about. As far as taking a shot on the Orioles, here is how I broke down the game.. I can understand the ML shot, I have Angels RL as my play. I played it last night at Bet Jam and now its -105 on the RL.

Angels -1.5 +110:
I had my eye on this game the minute I saw the matchup. Yea I didn't give Escobar his due respect last start only because of what the Yankees have done to him in Yankee stadium. He shut me up quickly. At home though he has been very dominant and that deserves to be mentioned. Angels are 7-2 when he takes the mound and on the yr he has been pretty stout. In 5 of Escobar's last 6 starts he has worked atleast 7innings giving up no more than 2er. The lone exception is a start in Detroit, 2 starts ago, where he went 2.1ip and was tagged for 6runs.

At home: 4-1, 1.76era, 6g, 41ip, 32h, 33k, 12bb and batters hitting .216

Baltimore is a team who just got a little hot (5games) because they played the cold Royals and the light hitting A's. However, Angels have won 5 of their last 6 so the streaks even out.

Burress will take the mound for the Orioles and although he has done alright he isnt going to work long innings. He has only started 4 games this yr. If he makes it to 6 in this game it would be a very good outting, that still leaves 3 innings for that bullpen to pitch and I don't have to say anything more about them.

Burress this yr as a starter: 2-2, 4.58era, 19.2ip, 24h, 11bb, 16k and batters hitting .300 off him
Burress overall this yr: 2-2, 3.27era, 33ip, 33h, 19bb
Burress Away this yr: 1-1, 2.08era, 4g, 2gs, 17.1ip, 16h, 9bb, 17k.

Angels have never seen Burress but he is a LHP who can struggle a little bit with control. I think he really goes 5ip with 3er or so. You now have to throw the Oriole bullpen into the mix for 4innings and that has atleast 1-2runs written all over it.

Escobar in his career vs. Orioles: 12-4, 3.76era, 17g, 131.2ip, 128h

Orioles vs. Esobar: Roberts = .188 in 32ab, Tejada = .138 in 29ab, Hernandez = .200 in 10ab, Millar = .150 in 20ab, Gibbons = .250 in 28ab, Mora = .222 in 27ab, Patterson = .400 in 10ab, Huff = .300 in 20ab

The main offense of the Orioles starts and ends with Roberts and Tejada and seeing that they don't hit Escobar, I am expecting the Oriole offense to hit a road block.

Angels at home = 19-7
Orioles on the road = 11-16

Angels took 5/6 last yr in LA from Orioles.
Angels vs. LHP: .278 Overall, .291 L10 games
Orioles vs. RHP: A consistent .260

There is nothing else that needs to be said about this game and I am not over thinking it. I have the better team + better starting pitcher + better offense + better bullpen. Angels 6-1, 5-1, 6-2, 7-3, something like that but by more than 2runs

Thanks for posting this ETG. I honestly haven't even finished reading it, but look forward to doing so. You obviously put a lot of work into it and, from what I saw, offered some great info. I love discussion of games in my threads (or anywhere here for that matter), and usually even moreso with people who have differing views on a game. I said above that I consider the LAA run line a decent value as well, but second to the doggie line. I will read through it as soon as I get the chance and respond the best I can. Who knows, maybe I'll buy out of some of my O's play. Thanks again for posting it (curious, do you post at another forum?). And thanks for the kind words. BOL.
 
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Thanks for posting this ETG. I honestly haven't even finished reading it, but look forward to doing so. You obviously put a lot of work into it and, from what I saw, offered some great info. I love discussion of games in my threads (or anywhere here for that matter), and usually even moreso with people who have differing views on a game. I said above that I consider the LAA run line a decent value as well, but second to the doggie line. I will read through it as soon as I get the chance and respond the best I can. Who knows, maybe I'll buy out of some of my O's play. Thanks again for posting it (curious, do you post at another forum?). And thanks for the kind words. BOL.

I figured I would post it here because I have seen you discuss games over the season and I like to discuss bases as well. I just thought I stir up a little debate on the game, looking forward to your response. I spend 90% of my time at another site but it wouldnt be right for me to post the name here. I agree very much on the Mariners game, have them on the RL as well..I was going to do a split play on the ML/RL but the ML got pounded by the time I woke up today.

Mariners -1.5 +145:
I have been involed in Baek's last 2 games, both against and with him. He has pitched 4 of his last 5 games on the road but I think he feels more comfortable at home, although a limited sample this yr:

Baek at home: 0-1, 2.84era, 2g, 12.2ip, 10h, 9k, 3bb and batters hitting .208 off him.

Mariners offense was on fire going into the series with the Angels but they ran into Ervin at home (a top AL pitcher at home) and Weaver, who they hit pretty decent, so they have to be very happy to see Padilla in this one. If anyone ever backs Padilla, it should only be on at home.

Padilla on the road: 0-4, 7.59era, 6g, 32ip, 42h, 20bb, 13k and batters hitting .316

Mariners are 5-2 when Baek pitches, Rangers are 2-7 when Padilla takes the mound. Rangers overall are a bad road team (8-19) while Mariners are an ok home team (12-11).

Both pitchers have faced their opponents this yr:

Baek At Texas: 0-0, 8.31era, 1g, 4.1ip, 8h, 4er, 2bb, 1k
Baek Career vs. Texas: 3-0, 2.08era, 4g, 26ip, 19h, 5bb, 13k
Padilla At Seattle: 0-1, 6.00era, 6ip, 6h, 4er, 3bb, 1k
Padilla Career vs. Seattle: 1-4, 5.79era, 5g, 32.2ip, 39h, 19bb, 21k

I want no business of backing a guy who is terrible on the road and overall puts way too many guys on base with walks. Baek's start this yr vs Texas is discouraging but it was his first start this yr. His last 4 starts have been quality, including the Cleveland game where he pitched a lot better than 5er, I said that last wk and I will say it again. The series this yr is 3-1 Seattle. Seattle is 6-3 vs. Texas at home including 07' and 06'.
 

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I'm heavy on the Padres with you but Buffet is on,

Buffetgambler picks:
Pitt
Det
Tor
Astros
 

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