Rangers +144 (Millwood) 2 Units - Well Millwood has struggled this year and I used to love betting on Washburn in the past because he had great odds but getting this type of number with a pitcher that is very capable, like Millwood, is a can't pass up. Millwood is better then his ERA states this year and will more then likely come back down to his norm of about a 4.25 ERA by seasons end. I think the number begins to creep down towards that after a decent start tomorrow. I really like the Texas bats to have a night. Young, Blaylock, and Sosa have all had success against Washburn, Sosa's is only in 6 AB's though, and I think the big three have a big night. Although Mark T has struggled against him in the past this is about the time of year where he starts to turn it on again or pop some Roid's in his system but either way I like the Rangers bats to come alive tomorrow. I put this at about a 8-4 game. I think Millwood pitches decent but it is good enough to get the W.
Yankee's -110 (Wang) 5 Units Biggest play I will make in baseball or any sport but this is only for like 100 dollars so I warn you that I am not working with a large bank roll so please don't follow because I have been successful on Play of the year plays in the past. Wang should be getting more respect in that. When I cap I look to do two things, bet on quality pitchers who aren't pitching up to potential and fade pitchers who are pitching beyond their career numbers. Now I am going against the numbers here which is not something I do very often, but Wake has had success against the Yankees and Wang has struggled in the past against Boston, but I think if the Yanks are going to take a game for sure in this series it is this one. The bats are cold but are looking to get hot and a change in style on the mound could be the right medicine. Wang had a rocky start last time in Boston but he settled in nicely. I think if he can get out of the first two innings in this game with a lead I think he holds it. He has Cy Young type stuff and needs to keep the ball down in the zone. I also think that the Red Sox are going to come back down to earth slightly because they have a lot of guys playing out of their minds, and yes I know they have a few stars struggling.
Detroit +150 (Maroth) 3 Units God be with me hear on fading a guy who has been on fire. I have watched Carmona pitch when he was horrible and I have watched him pitch when he is great. You CAN RATTLE THE HELL OUT OF THIS GUY. He doesn't like pitching with runners on base and if he isn't dead on with his location he struggles big time. His control has been dynamite in his last few starts but I just don't think this guy is as good as the number says. Maroth will keep his team in the game because that is what Mike Maroth does. He will have an average start and get his six innings. I am fading a guy who is pitching out of his mind here because I think the patients and experience in the middle of the Tiger lineup is really going to be the deciding factor in this game. As long as they down chase Carmona's pitch they will win this game. I think they score a ton of runs and rattle Carmona but I could get chili whipped quick as fuck in this game.
Padres -1 1/2 -145 (Peavy) 2 Units Well normally there is no way that I am laying a run and a half and laying that kind of juice but this is Peavy going against a poor hitting Nationals club. This should equal about 10+ K's and 2 or less earned runs. I am feeling good in this game if the Padre's score 4-5 runs I feel I have this in the bag so I am going to lay the juice and depend on their offense, which isn't the greatest in the world, to have 4-5 guys cross the plate because I really don't see Peavy giving up more then 2 in this spot IMO. Think this is a relatively low scoring game but I think that a key hit here or there is going to put the Padre's over the edge and give them a two run victory here. Peavy could easily shut this team out but I am looking for 4-5 runs in this situation.
San Fran +125 (Morris) 2 Units Have a feeling this is going to be a popular play on the board which means we'll all lose but shit happens. Don't understand the line and I understand trends. Morris is the better pitcher when he is or isn't pitching well and the Giants are, IMO, the better team here. I know they struggle offensively and w/o Barry hitting it is like 9th graders trying to hit major league pitching but I think Morris easily out pitches Eaton in this spot. They are flat out the better team..
I looked at the White Sox line and loved Javy getting money... But in all honesty I don't think you can lay a dime with this team until the figure some shit out... They are in real trouble right now and better figure something out because they are lost at the plate, in the bullpen and with the starters. No Erstad and no lead off guy, this team is in serious trouble. I would fade this team until they prove they can put it all together IMO... and I am a huge White Sox follower and homer.
Yankee's -110 (Wang) 5 Units Biggest play I will make in baseball or any sport but this is only for like 100 dollars so I warn you that I am not working with a large bank roll so please don't follow because I have been successful on Play of the year plays in the past. Wang should be getting more respect in that. When I cap I look to do two things, bet on quality pitchers who aren't pitching up to potential and fade pitchers who are pitching beyond their career numbers. Now I am going against the numbers here which is not something I do very often, but Wake has had success against the Yankees and Wang has struggled in the past against Boston, but I think if the Yanks are going to take a game for sure in this series it is this one. The bats are cold but are looking to get hot and a change in style on the mound could be the right medicine. Wang had a rocky start last time in Boston but he settled in nicely. I think if he can get out of the first two innings in this game with a lead I think he holds it. He has Cy Young type stuff and needs to keep the ball down in the zone. I also think that the Red Sox are going to come back down to earth slightly because they have a lot of guys playing out of their minds, and yes I know they have a few stars struggling.
Detroit +150 (Maroth) 3 Units God be with me hear on fading a guy who has been on fire. I have watched Carmona pitch when he was horrible and I have watched him pitch when he is great. You CAN RATTLE THE HELL OUT OF THIS GUY. He doesn't like pitching with runners on base and if he isn't dead on with his location he struggles big time. His control has been dynamite in his last few starts but I just don't think this guy is as good as the number says. Maroth will keep his team in the game because that is what Mike Maroth does. He will have an average start and get his six innings. I am fading a guy who is pitching out of his mind here because I think the patients and experience in the middle of the Tiger lineup is really going to be the deciding factor in this game. As long as they down chase Carmona's pitch they will win this game. I think they score a ton of runs and rattle Carmona but I could get chili whipped quick as fuck in this game.
Padres -1 1/2 -145 (Peavy) 2 Units Well normally there is no way that I am laying a run and a half and laying that kind of juice but this is Peavy going against a poor hitting Nationals club. This should equal about 10+ K's and 2 or less earned runs. I am feeling good in this game if the Padre's score 4-5 runs I feel I have this in the bag so I am going to lay the juice and depend on their offense, which isn't the greatest in the world, to have 4-5 guys cross the plate because I really don't see Peavy giving up more then 2 in this spot IMO. Think this is a relatively low scoring game but I think that a key hit here or there is going to put the Padre's over the edge and give them a two run victory here. Peavy could easily shut this team out but I am looking for 4-5 runs in this situation.
San Fran +125 (Morris) 2 Units Have a feeling this is going to be a popular play on the board which means we'll all lose but shit happens. Don't understand the line and I understand trends. Morris is the better pitcher when he is or isn't pitching well and the Giants are, IMO, the better team here. I know they struggle offensively and w/o Barry hitting it is like 9th graders trying to hit major league pitching but I think Morris easily out pitches Eaton in this spot. They are flat out the better team..
I looked at the White Sox line and loved Javy getting money... But in all honesty I don't think you can lay a dime with this team until the figure some shit out... They are in real trouble right now and better figure something out because they are lost at the plate, in the bullpen and with the starters. No Erstad and no lead off guy, this team is in serious trouble. I would fade this team until they prove they can put it all together IMO... and I am a huge White Sox follower and homer.
