<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">3</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-1.98 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">48</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">55</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+10.36 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since April 2007)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">85</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">108</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-7.19 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Atlanta +1.39 over CHICAGO
We’re not going to concern ourselves with the starters too much in this one and focus more on the current state of these two franchises. The Braves, after a year hiatus, are back on track to get into the playoffs and once again they’re playing smart and doing what it takes to win. The Braves are 31-23, they’ve won three of four and they’ve scored 17 times over the past two days, including eight yesterday against Carlos Zambrano. Meanwhile, the Cubs have lost five straight and 11 of 13. There’s dissension in the clubhouse after Michael Barrett and Zambrano went at it yesterday. This Cubs squad is melting down and a smart team like the Braves can smell a kill when they see one. Besides, Chicago has won just four games in 13 tries versus lefties and will face one here in Chris James, whom has been pitching very effectively over the past month. Hate to kick a team when they’re down but it’s ok because the Cubs are used to it. Play Atlanta +1.39 (Risking 2 units). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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San Francisco +1.64 over PHILADELPHIA
Cole Hamels is considered to be the ace of the Phillies rotation and perhaps that’s why they’re such big chalk here. Hamels is decent to be sure and he’s a strikeout pitcher but he still gives up hits and has allowed four or five runs in half of his starts. Furthermore, the Phillies are going bad having just been swept by the D-Backs and getting their asses handed to them last night. In addition, it’s not too often that we’re going to find a take-back like this on Noah Lowry. Lowry’s ERA is 3.08, which is lower then Hamels 3.74. What’s even more impressive about Lowry is that in 64 innings he’s only allowed two bombs while Hamels has surrendered 10 in 74 innings. Lastly, the Phillies are 5-14 against lefties this season and that includes a 1-6 mark in their own crib while the Giants are 10-7 vs southpaws. Giants may not win here but this line is way out of whack and thus, we’re on it. Play San Francisco +1.64 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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Detroit +1.33 over CLEVELAND (1<SUP>st</SUP> five innings)
Even when Todd Jones was saving games the ninth inning was always an event and he really could never be trusted. The Tigers whole bullpen has been extremely shaky all year, as their 5.99 ERA and 1.61 WHIP would attest to. Thus, we’ll do our best to leave that bullpen out of this play and take the Tigers in five. In fact, had you bet the Tigers in five the first two games of this series you’d be 2-0 and we don’t see this one being any different. Chad Durbin lost his season debut but has gone 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA since. He has been rock solid on the road going 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his last five starts away from Comerica Park. By contrast, Cliff Lee has been brutal. Lee has been roughed up for 11 runs in his last two starts covering just 9.1 frames and he’s been roughed up plenty more times this year. He’s started just two games at home and both the Reds and Blue Jays got to him for a combined nine runs in 12 innings. Lee isn’t fooling anyone and despite losing the Tigers are still swinging some hot bats and we expect that to continue here. Play: Detroit +1.33(first five innings) (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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TORONTO +1.04 over Chicago
Keep your eye on young Dustin McGowan, as this guy is a definite keeper and the prices on him should keep showing up for the next few games. McGowan has wicked stuff and his confidence is climbing after he pitched well against the Orioles and followed that up with a win over the Yanks last Monday. McGowan has now struck out 25 batters in 29 innings and at the Rogers Center in two starts the opposition hit just .235 off him. The White Sox are deal last in the AL in team batting average, RBI’s, total hits, on base percentage, etc, etc. Jose Contreras has been good but he’s also been inconsistent. His ERA on the year is 4.45 and over his last three his ERA is 5.89. Consider the Blue Jays a live pup in this game. Play: Toronto +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Atlanta +1.39 over CHICAGO
We’re not going to concern ourselves with the starters too much in this one and focus more on the current state of these two franchises. The Braves, after a year hiatus, are back on track to get into the playoffs and once again they’re playing smart and doing what it takes to win. The Braves are 31-23, they’ve won three of four and they’ve scored 17 times over the past two days, including eight yesterday against Carlos Zambrano. Meanwhile, the Cubs have lost five straight and 11 of 13. There’s dissension in the clubhouse after Michael Barrett and Zambrano went at it yesterday. This Cubs squad is melting down and a smart team like the Braves can smell a kill when they see one. Besides, Chicago has won just four games in 13 tries versus lefties and will face one here in Chris James, whom has been pitching very effectively over the past month. Hate to kick a team when they’re down but it’s ok because the Cubs are used to it. Play Atlanta +1.39 (Risking 2 units). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
></o>San Francisco +1.64 over PHILADELPHIA
Cole Hamels is considered to be the ace of the Phillies rotation and perhaps that’s why they’re such big chalk here. Hamels is decent to be sure and he’s a strikeout pitcher but he still gives up hits and has allowed four or five runs in half of his starts. Furthermore, the Phillies are going bad having just been swept by the D-Backs and getting their asses handed to them last night. In addition, it’s not too often that we’re going to find a take-back like this on Noah Lowry. Lowry’s ERA is 3.08, which is lower then Hamels 3.74. What’s even more impressive about Lowry is that in 64 innings he’s only allowed two bombs while Hamels has surrendered 10 in 74 innings. Lastly, the Phillies are 5-14 against lefties this season and that includes a 1-6 mark in their own crib while the Giants are 10-7 vs southpaws. Giants may not win here but this line is way out of whack and thus, we’re on it. Play San Francisco +1.64 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Detroit +1.33 over CLEVELAND (1<SUP>st</SUP> five innings)
Even when Todd Jones was saving games the ninth inning was always an event and he really could never be trusted. The Tigers whole bullpen has been extremely shaky all year, as their 5.99 ERA and 1.61 WHIP would attest to. Thus, we’ll do our best to leave that bullpen out of this play and take the Tigers in five. In fact, had you bet the Tigers in five the first two games of this series you’d be 2-0 and we don’t see this one being any different. Chad Durbin lost his season debut but has gone 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA since. He has been rock solid on the road going 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his last five starts away from Comerica Park. By contrast, Cliff Lee has been brutal. Lee has been roughed up for 11 runs in his last two starts covering just 9.1 frames and he’s been roughed up plenty more times this year. He’s started just two games at home and both the Reds and Blue Jays got to him for a combined nine runs in 12 innings. Lee isn’t fooling anyone and despite losing the Tigers are still swinging some hot bats and we expect that to continue here. Play: Detroit +1.33(first five innings) (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>TORONTO +1.04 over Chicago
Keep your eye on young Dustin McGowan, as this guy is a definite keeper and the prices on him should keep showing up for the next few games. McGowan has wicked stuff and his confidence is climbing after he pitched well against the Orioles and followed that up with a win over the Yanks last Monday. McGowan has now struck out 25 batters in 29 innings and at the Rogers Center in two starts the opposition hit just .235 off him. The White Sox are deal last in the AL in team batting average, RBI’s, total hits, on base percentage, etc, etc. Jose Contreras has been good but he’s also been inconsistent. His ERA on the year is 4.45 and over his last three his ERA is 5.89. Consider the Blue Jays a live pup in this game. Play: Toronto +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
