SDS Comeback ~ MLB Thread ~ A New Leaf

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I am starting a new thread as a symbolic effort to turn over a new leaf. I am going to attempt to dramatically alter my betting patterns and hopefully avoid some of the pitfalls and traps that have recently plagued my overall success.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
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At one point this season (on 5~12~7 to be exact) I was +44.94 units on baseball. Not bad considering that I did not even start posting baseball plays until 4~27~7. Especially when you consider that this is my very first season ever betting on bases. But alas, I cooled off and found myself hovering around +30 units for the better part of this last month until I hit rock bottom on Friday (6~1~7), when I posted an unusually big card (13 plays) and I went 3~10, losing an ego deflating –19.66 units in one single night! Embarrassment and demoralization are some of the tamer words that come to mind.<o:p></o:p>
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My problem? Betting heavy –200 favorites night in and night out and not recognizing the fact that baseball is distinctly different than the sports that I normally bet (football and basketball). I have been a very successful football bettor (my best sport by far) for years. And I only started betting bases on a whim this season as a way to pass the time until fall arrives. But what I failed to realize is that baseball is purely a price-driven numbers game ~ one that is not dependant on spreads ~ a concept that was at first pretty foreign to me.<o:p></o:p>
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By betting on heavy favorites, I won the majority of the time, but when I did lose, I lost badly. It was quite common for me to go 8~2 one night and then 6~2 the next night, winning between 10 to 15 units in the process. But on nights when I went 4~4 or 4~3, I was lucky to break even and sometimes found my units going backwards. Hell, I only made $70 a few days ago after going 6~3 on the night due to losing $440 and $420 on two 2-unit bets placed on –220 and –210 type favorites.<o:p></o:p>
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In other words, the price of the baseball market irascibly caught up with me and made it impossible for me to continue my ways. I have now realized that I need to start betting doggies and paying more attention to prices, rather than simply betting on who I thought would actually win the game. BuffetGambler said it best when he said, “To justify an underdog bet, all you have to do is think that the dog has a better chance of winning than the price indicates. Period.”<o:p></o:p>
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Those words and my recent experiences made it apparent that I had to lose my current mentality. It allowed me to realize that it is indeed to prudent to sometimes bet on a team that didn’t have the better chance of winning. This is baseball after all, and often the unthinkable and illogical does indeed occur ~ therefore I have to be willing to bet on teams that very well may have a greater chance of losing, since there’s greater value in doing so over the long haul.<o:p></o:p>
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I will still continue to cap the games the way I always have ~ but I have to be willing to bet the other side if the market price dictates doing so. And when it comes to favorites, I have to be willing to walk away from a bet if the price is too steep ~ because no matter how certain I may feel that the Angels or Red Sox will beat a team like the Rangers or the Royals, the price matters. A lot.<o:p></o:p>
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So I will put my ego in my back pocket and care a lot less now about my W~L record. I will start to focus on my units and the price of my wagers. I will try to accept having losing days and stick with this new philosophy, since it is the only way I will ever obtain long term success with bases and succeed in rebuilding my profits until the football season finally arrives.

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Many of you probably recognize me from my posted plays on Bookie Buster’s daily Service Play threads and also from my work on the “Service Play” and “Service Fade” spreadsheets that I updated daily. My involvement with the spreadsheets began strictly out of curiosity and from a general skepticism of the records being touted by a lot of the major services. So I began tracking the service play records in an effort to confirm or deny the validity of their records and claims. And then later, a few weeks into the season, I began posting my own plays on Bookie Buster’s daily thread and keeping a running season record there.<o:p></o:p>
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I will no longer be contributing to the forum via Bookie Buster’s daily Service Play threads or updating those Service Play and Service Fade spreadsheets. But please do not misconstrue my non-involvement on Bookie Buster’s thread as meaning that I do not find value in what he does for the forum. To the contrary, I think that Bookie Buster does this forum an immense service and I want to personally thank him for his efforts and for allowing me to be a part of the process.<o:p></o:p>
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It just makes more sense for me to start my own independent thread now, since my current record and handicapping style was never based off of the service plays. I always have and I always will cap all of my own games (for better or worse) and I merely viewed the service plays as one extra piece of information amongst many other pieces of information that I used to confirm or deny my own capping methods to determine the outcomes of games.
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Sorry for the long narrative (I tend to ramble on as you can probably tell). But I figured that I owed an explanation to those of you who are familiar with me from Bookie Buster’s thread, as well as those of you who have no idea of who I am.<o:p></o:p>
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I will be rolling my previous record over to this thread now. Wish me luck as I attempt to ignore wins and losses and focus on price and on value betting for the rest of the season.<o:p></o:p>
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Sure, I will no doubt still bet on some heavy favorites from time to time. But I will also be looking for more value as I take a chance on more doggies and allow price to dictate which bets I choose to pull the trigger on, and which bets I choose to walk away from.<o:p></o:p>
 

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BOL with all your plays.love to read a guy posts that has always been a class act to the forum!!!....gl..ck
 

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Thank you for the kind words CK. You are also one of the guys who definitely makes this forum a better place. BOL with your plays buddy!
 

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My plays for Sunday 6~3~7:

All plays are for 1-unit today

DET -117
SF +113
PIT +1.5 -145
MIL OV 8.5 -120
STL +118
BAL +137
OAK +1.5 -140

Season Record: 123~87~3
+12.92 Units
 

head turd in the outhouse
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gl bro, nice explanation of where you are mentally approaching the rest of the season from.
 

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What is your record for football, college and/or NFL

Hey Sonny ~

I just joined the RX last September and was a lurker for quite a while and I really didn't post that many football plays. I eventually posted a few here and there as the season progressed and even had a few full cards. I wanted to get a good feel for the RX first and earn my stripes slowly.

I would have to go back and look (hopefuly the RX posting history will allow me to go back that far to see). I will check into that later if you wish.

This upcoming football season will be my very first full season on the RX.
 

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What is your record for football, college and/or NFL

Hey Sonny ~

I did a thread search under my screen name and the very last football card that I posted I went 9~1.

Then I had a Saints plays before that (for the SNF game) that went 1~0.

Then a week or so before that I went 5~2.

There were a few other plays and a few small cards that I posted earlier in the season that I failed to update or bump with finalized records. Not sure why. Probably because I was such a newbie and didn't know any better.

I will post the entire season this coming fall.....however...I normally don't start betting football really hard until about week 3 or week 4. I am not a big fan of surprises, and there's always 2 or 3 teams that do a lot better than anticipated and 2 or 3 teams than do a lot worse. Seems like around week 3 or 4 that I finally get dialed in. I will probably post very small cards (if any at all) for very small amounts until week 3 or 4.
 

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SDS,

sometimes you have to sit back and take stock of what you are doing. This is not uncommon among the top players and allows a fresh look at games in general.
I wish you the best of luck and have to admit will sorely miss your updates on the paid plays. It was very informative and allowed me to see who was on hot streaks, for that I have to say Thanks!
Good luck going forward

Peace
Gunz
 

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SDS,

sometimes you have to sit back and take stock of what you are doing. This is not uncommon among the top players and allows a fresh look at games in general.
I wish you the best of luck and have to admit will sorely miss your updates on the paid plays. It was very informative and allowed me to see who was on hot streaks, for that I have to say Thanks!
Good luck going forward

Peace
Gunz

Thanks for the coments Gunz. I appreciate the fact that people found some value in the spreadsheets and were able to use them in some way. It is all about winning and I am glad they provided you with a roadmap of sorts and a way to view streaks and trends for the services being monitored.

I did one last final update to both spreadsheets and I was going to post them one final time today, but it looks like Bookie Buster took the day off today (hopefully that's the case and nothing is wrong ~ it seems unusual that he did not post).

As far as the spreasheets going forward, I would love it if someone were to save the most recent update (which I will post on BB's next thread) and I would encourage someone to take over and continue updating them if they choose to do so.

BOL to you today and in the future.
 

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A couple of heart-breaking late-game losses. SF gave up 5 runs in the seventh and BAL gave up 2 runs in the bottom of the ninth. I really watned that doggie to come home.

3~3 so far today. I will update the record and units after the completion of the OAK game and decide if I have a play on the NYY/BOS game or not.
 

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yes thanks...i just bet my angels who have won me most of my money today...got a big lucky today...will look forward to your thoughts on the yanky game
 

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4~3 on the day and +0.98 units

I like BOS tonight, but this is a lean only....not an official play to be counted. Beckett is dominant, but with these two offenses, it's anyone's guess.

Season record: 127~90~3
+13.90 units
 

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yes thanks...i just bet my angels who have won me most of my money today...got a big lucky today...will look forward to your thoughts on the yanky game

Nice hit on LAA Slick. Sorry I didn't have a chance to respond sooner....my wife is working today and I am home taking care of the kids, so by the time I saw your post it was too close to game time to make a firm decision on NYY/BOS.

BOL if you have a side or a total on this one.
 

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Nice hit on LAA Slick. Sorry I didn't have a chance to respond sooner....my wife is working today and I am home taking care of the kids, so by the time I saw your post it was too close to game time to make a firm decision on NYY/BOS.

BOL if you have a side or a total on this one.

I thought the game time 7:05 EST (not 8:05 EST). Maybe I do have time to examine this one closer. Sorry about that Slick. You were probably wondering what in world I was talking about.

I still lean BOS....but I also wonder if a msall play on the over is worth while now that msot outs are dangling a 9.5 total:

06/02/2007 Sat NYY 6 BOS 11 M Mussina C Schilling
06/01/2007 Fri NYY 9 BOS 5 C Wang T Wakefield
05/23/2007 Wed BOS 3 NYY 8 C Schilling A Pettitte
05/22/2007 Tue BOS 7 NYY 3 J Tavarez M Mussina
05/21/2007 Mon BOS 2 NYY 6 T Wakefield C Wang
04/29/2007 Sun BOS 7 NYY 4 P J Tavarez C Wang
04/28/2007 Sat BOS 1 NYY 3 T Wakefield J Karstens
04/27/2007 Fri BOS 11 NYY 4 D Matsuzaka A Pettitte
04/22/2007 Sun NYY 6 BOS 7 C Wright D Matsuzaka
04/21/2007 Sat NYY 5 BOS 7 J Karstens J Beckett
 

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