I don't post here usually but had some time on my hands today after the games and its a smaller card so I thought I could spark some discussion over here. This isnt my thread for picks or anything, just something I feel we could all benefit from. If you have 3 words to say about a game then throw them out there.
National League Games:
Giants +104 / Phillies -114....O/U 9.5 -110
This is a 1:05 game, heads up guys.
Which Barry Zito is going to show up? Zito is 2-1 in his L3 games w/ 4.00era, 18ip, 16h, 10bb, 11k. The numbers (walks & era) are skewed from the Oakland start but he has gone 7ip in his last 2 games (Hou & NYM) and won both. He has not faced the Phillies this yr. Zito is 2-3 on the road w/ 4.80era. Bonds is probable.
Lieber is 1-1 in his L3 games w/ 5.79era, 18.2ip, 25h, 3bb, 15k and has faced the Giants this yr, away, where he got the L over 6ip, 7h, 4er, 2bb, 1k. Lieber is 2-2 at home w/ a slightly better era than on the road.
Phillies don't hit LHP that well and Giants hit RHP better than LHP.
Ump is 4-7 O/U this yr w/ 62.5% of pitches called for strikes
O/U in the series this yr is 5-2
Phillies lead series 4-3
my lean = Zito +104
Dodgers -145 / Pirates +135....O/U 8.5-110
D. Lowe pitched real well last outting vs. Nationals covering 7ip and 0er. Over his L3 he is 1-1 w/ 1.71era, 21ip, 16h, 5bb, 16k. He has not faced Pitt this yr but is 4-0 w/ 2.52era in 4games vs. Pirates. He is 3-4 on the road but no real difference in ERA between his H/A splits. Dodgers are 7-5 when Lowe pitches.
Malholm over his last 3 games is 0-2 w/ 4.58era, 19.2ip, 21h, 6bb, 13k. In his career he is 0-1, 7.15era, 2g, 11.1ip, 16h, 9er, 6bb, 5k vs. LAD. At home Malholm is 1-5 w/ 5.15era covering 6games.
LAD hit LHP better than RHP and Pitt hits RHP worse than LHP.
I tend to think blowing a 4-0 lead in the 7th w/ one of their top pitchers has to have some kind of hangover tomorrow. Malholm is overmatched by Lowe as well and Lowe has been on fire his last 3 games.
Ump is 5-7 O/U this yr and calling 63.8% of pitches strikes.
O/U is 5-1 in the series this yr
Series this yr is 4-2 LAD
my lean is LAD -145/LAD -1.5 +110
Cubs +107 / Brewers -117....O 9+100/U 9-120
Marquis L3 games he is 0-1 w/ 5.00era, 18ip, 20h, 7bb, 12k. Marquis started the yr on fire and his stats this yr are still good (5-2 w/ 2.93era) but he has slid a little bit. Marquis is 2-0 w/ 2.76 on the road this yr in 5games. In his career he is 4-6 w/ 4.30 vs. Brewers.
Bush has been equally unimpressive lately and this yr in general. In his last 3 games he is 0-2 w/ 6.05era, 19.1ip, 23h, 4bb, 14k. At home this yr Bush is 2-3 w/ 4.71era in 6games. He has faced the Cubs at home this yr: 0-1, 9.00era, 1g, 6ip, 8h, 6er, 1bb, 7k. He is 1-3 in his career w/ 3.89 in 6 games vs. Cubs.
No ump info is available until tomorrow.
On the yr the Cubs hit RHP better than LHP and the Brewers are basically even facing pitching from both sides.
Brewers at home are 21-10
O/U this yr is 5-1
Series this yr is 3-3
my lean is Over 9 +100. Cubs success vs. Bush + Bush shitty pitching + Marquis shitty pitching lately + Bullpens = Over.
Marlins / Braves
Its Obermueller vs. Hudson, no line available because Mitre was suppose to pitch. Not sure I could back Marlins with that guy pitching. Hudson is 1-0 w/ 2.40era in 2games vs. Marlins and has pretty much dominated them this yr. Hudson last 3 games have not been great by any means.
Lean Braves to win but line will prob be too high for my interest.
American League Games:
Royals +140 / DRays -150....O 8+100/U 8-120
Another early game, 3:05 start.
At first glance I felt this line was high and there was some value on Gil Meche. Meche is 0-3 w/ 7.02era, 16.2ip, 23h, 7bb, 10k. He is coming off a loss where he went 7.1 allowing 1er vs. Baltimore. In his career he is 1-3 w/ 5.52era, 6g, 31ip, 38h, 19k, 10bb, 25k vs. Tampa.
Shields is coming off a complete game vs. Detroit in which he gave up 3runs in the first inning only to respond by shutting them down for the rest of the game. Shields is 1-0 w/ 3.13era, 23ip, 22h, 7bb, 15k over his L3 games. He is 1-0 w/ 0.00era, 6ip, 6h in 1career start vs. Royals.
Tampa hits LHP better than RHP and KC is about even with both sides.
Series this yr is 2-1 KC
Ump is 3-8 O/U this yr and calling strikes at 61.7%
Lean to DRays but will not pay that much, atleast not right now.
Yankees -106 / WSox -104....O/U 10.5-110
I won't go near this game with a 30 foot pole. If you have a hunch on this game, please tell me. Garland shitted on me last game vs the Twins. The WSox bullpen has shitted on everyone. The offense sucks. The Yankees are presenting Igawa? Ouch, I will just skip this one..
Orioles +115 / Mariners -125.... O 7.5 -120/ U 7.5 +100
"OMG, King Felix is -125", I am sure a lot of people thought that when they saw the line.
The most exciting pitching matchup of the day? Bedard has been a rock as of late, 1-1 w/ 1.23era, 22ip, 13h, 8bb, 25k over his last 3. His career numbers are not so hot vs. Mariners: 1-3 w/ 5.73era, 4g, 22ip, 20h, 15bb, 18k.
King Felix hasn't been much of a king lately: 1-2 w/ 6.06era, 16.1ip, 24h, 6bb, 19k over his last 3games. He is 2-1 w/ 5.82 in 3games covering 17ip, 21h, 9bb, 11k vs. the Orioles.
Orioles don't hit RHP as well as LHP and Mariners don't hit LHP as well as RHP.
No ump info available
This is the first game of the series this yr.
Mariners def have better bullpen.
kind of lean to Orioles +115 because Bedard is red hot right now but more than likely don't get involved here unless someone has something strong to say to convince me.
BoSox +150 / Oakland -160....O/U 8.5 -110
BoSox are w/out a question the better team here with an offense that can go off at anytime. This line is too much for me to lay w/ Haren vs. BoSox unless he can tell me before the game he will go 9ip. In his career he is 1-3 w/ 3.57 era vs. Boston. Tavarez doesn't impress me enough to go against Haren though. I will be avoiding this game but if you have thoughts, add them.
Twins +150 / Angels -160....O 8.5 +100 / U 8.5 -120
Underdog play of the day? I think this line is so out of wack, I was shocked to see Boof +150. Is no one paying attention to what he has done lately? 3-0 w/ 1.93era, 18.2ip, 16h, 6bb, 23k over his last 3 games. He has never faced the Angels.
Weaver does not deserve to be -160. Maybe its just me, Over his last 3 games he is 2-0 w/ 5.51era, 16.1ip, 21h, 8bb, 14k. He has never faced the Twins.
Angels are a very strong Home team.
Twins offense doesn't like to show up all the time.
This is simply a value play, this line should not even be close to +150 for Boof, atleast imo.
National League Games:
Giants +104 / Phillies -114....O/U 9.5 -110
This is a 1:05 game, heads up guys.
Which Barry Zito is going to show up? Zito is 2-1 in his L3 games w/ 4.00era, 18ip, 16h, 10bb, 11k. The numbers (walks & era) are skewed from the Oakland start but he has gone 7ip in his last 2 games (Hou & NYM) and won both. He has not faced the Phillies this yr. Zito is 2-3 on the road w/ 4.80era. Bonds is probable.
Lieber is 1-1 in his L3 games w/ 5.79era, 18.2ip, 25h, 3bb, 15k and has faced the Giants this yr, away, where he got the L over 6ip, 7h, 4er, 2bb, 1k. Lieber is 2-2 at home w/ a slightly better era than on the road.
Phillies don't hit LHP that well and Giants hit RHP better than LHP.
Ump is 4-7 O/U this yr w/ 62.5% of pitches called for strikes
O/U in the series this yr is 5-2
Phillies lead series 4-3
my lean = Zito +104
Dodgers -145 / Pirates +135....O/U 8.5-110
D. Lowe pitched real well last outting vs. Nationals covering 7ip and 0er. Over his L3 he is 1-1 w/ 1.71era, 21ip, 16h, 5bb, 16k. He has not faced Pitt this yr but is 4-0 w/ 2.52era in 4games vs. Pirates. He is 3-4 on the road but no real difference in ERA between his H/A splits. Dodgers are 7-5 when Lowe pitches.
Malholm over his last 3 games is 0-2 w/ 4.58era, 19.2ip, 21h, 6bb, 13k. In his career he is 0-1, 7.15era, 2g, 11.1ip, 16h, 9er, 6bb, 5k vs. LAD. At home Malholm is 1-5 w/ 5.15era covering 6games.
LAD hit LHP better than RHP and Pitt hits RHP worse than LHP.
I tend to think blowing a 4-0 lead in the 7th w/ one of their top pitchers has to have some kind of hangover tomorrow. Malholm is overmatched by Lowe as well and Lowe has been on fire his last 3 games.
Ump is 5-7 O/U this yr and calling 63.8% of pitches strikes.
O/U is 5-1 in the series this yr
Series this yr is 4-2 LAD
my lean is LAD -145/LAD -1.5 +110
Cubs +107 / Brewers -117....O 9+100/U 9-120
Marquis L3 games he is 0-1 w/ 5.00era, 18ip, 20h, 7bb, 12k. Marquis started the yr on fire and his stats this yr are still good (5-2 w/ 2.93era) but he has slid a little bit. Marquis is 2-0 w/ 2.76 on the road this yr in 5games. In his career he is 4-6 w/ 4.30 vs. Brewers.
Bush has been equally unimpressive lately and this yr in general. In his last 3 games he is 0-2 w/ 6.05era, 19.1ip, 23h, 4bb, 14k. At home this yr Bush is 2-3 w/ 4.71era in 6games. He has faced the Cubs at home this yr: 0-1, 9.00era, 1g, 6ip, 8h, 6er, 1bb, 7k. He is 1-3 in his career w/ 3.89 in 6 games vs. Cubs.
No ump info is available until tomorrow.
On the yr the Cubs hit RHP better than LHP and the Brewers are basically even facing pitching from both sides.
Brewers at home are 21-10
O/U this yr is 5-1
Series this yr is 3-3
my lean is Over 9 +100. Cubs success vs. Bush + Bush shitty pitching + Marquis shitty pitching lately + Bullpens = Over.
Marlins / Braves
Its Obermueller vs. Hudson, no line available because Mitre was suppose to pitch. Not sure I could back Marlins with that guy pitching. Hudson is 1-0 w/ 2.40era in 2games vs. Marlins and has pretty much dominated them this yr. Hudson last 3 games have not been great by any means.
Lean Braves to win but line will prob be too high for my interest.
American League Games:
Royals +140 / DRays -150....O 8+100/U 8-120
Another early game, 3:05 start.
At first glance I felt this line was high and there was some value on Gil Meche. Meche is 0-3 w/ 7.02era, 16.2ip, 23h, 7bb, 10k. He is coming off a loss where he went 7.1 allowing 1er vs. Baltimore. In his career he is 1-3 w/ 5.52era, 6g, 31ip, 38h, 19k, 10bb, 25k vs. Tampa.
Shields is coming off a complete game vs. Detroit in which he gave up 3runs in the first inning only to respond by shutting them down for the rest of the game. Shields is 1-0 w/ 3.13era, 23ip, 22h, 7bb, 15k over his L3 games. He is 1-0 w/ 0.00era, 6ip, 6h in 1career start vs. Royals.
Tampa hits LHP better than RHP and KC is about even with both sides.
Series this yr is 2-1 KC
Ump is 3-8 O/U this yr and calling strikes at 61.7%
Lean to DRays but will not pay that much, atleast not right now.
Yankees -106 / WSox -104....O/U 10.5-110
I won't go near this game with a 30 foot pole. If you have a hunch on this game, please tell me. Garland shitted on me last game vs the Twins. The WSox bullpen has shitted on everyone. The offense sucks. The Yankees are presenting Igawa? Ouch, I will just skip this one..
Orioles +115 / Mariners -125.... O 7.5 -120/ U 7.5 +100
"OMG, King Felix is -125", I am sure a lot of people thought that when they saw the line.
The most exciting pitching matchup of the day? Bedard has been a rock as of late, 1-1 w/ 1.23era, 22ip, 13h, 8bb, 25k over his last 3. His career numbers are not so hot vs. Mariners: 1-3 w/ 5.73era, 4g, 22ip, 20h, 15bb, 18k.
King Felix hasn't been much of a king lately: 1-2 w/ 6.06era, 16.1ip, 24h, 6bb, 19k over his last 3games. He is 2-1 w/ 5.82 in 3games covering 17ip, 21h, 9bb, 11k vs. the Orioles.
Orioles don't hit RHP as well as LHP and Mariners don't hit LHP as well as RHP.
No ump info available
This is the first game of the series this yr.
Mariners def have better bullpen.
kind of lean to Orioles +115 because Bedard is red hot right now but more than likely don't get involved here unless someone has something strong to say to convince me.
BoSox +150 / Oakland -160....O/U 8.5 -110
BoSox are w/out a question the better team here with an offense that can go off at anytime. This line is too much for me to lay w/ Haren vs. BoSox unless he can tell me before the game he will go 9ip. In his career he is 1-3 w/ 3.57 era vs. Boston. Tavarez doesn't impress me enough to go against Haren though. I will be avoiding this game but if you have thoughts, add them.
Twins +150 / Angels -160....O 8.5 +100 / U 8.5 -120
Underdog play of the day? I think this line is so out of wack, I was shocked to see Boof +150. Is no one paying attention to what he has done lately? 3-0 w/ 1.93era, 18.2ip, 16h, 6bb, 23k over his last 3 games. He has never faced the Angels.
Weaver does not deserve to be -160. Maybe its just me, Over his last 3 games he is 2-0 w/ 5.51era, 16.1ip, 21h, 8bb, 14k. He has never faced the Twins.
Angels are a very strong Home team.
Twins offense doesn't like to show up all the time.
This is simply a value play, this line should not even be close to +150 for Boof, atleast imo.
