Jibba's Monday MLB

Jibba · Jun 4, 2007

Money Lines:

Favorites: 144-85 for +27.19 units
Underdogs: 54-56 for +15.04 units
Total: 193-134 for for +42.23 units

Totals: 4-1 for 4.13 units

Run Lines: 11-11 for +3.14 units

Parlays: 1-2 for -1.97 units

______________________________________________________

Well, once again it was an ugly weekend. Starting to see a recurring theme of picking up units during the week and throwing most of them away over the weekend. Will have to try to fix that problem or give up capping on the weekends for a bit unless I know I will have all the time I need. Getting out the early game plays now.

Giants +103: Zito is looking more and more like the pitcher the Giants thought they were getting when they threw all that money at him. That's bad news for a Phillies team that is near the bottom of the league offensively against lefties. The Phillies' offense also hasn't looked good over the past week, putting up a .226 AVG and a .289 OBP. Lieber started off nicely this year, but is slowly coming back down to where we all expected him to be this year. 1.5 units to win 1.55.

Giants/Phillies u9.5, -110: This seems to be a popular pick today, and I have to agree with it. As I mentioned above, the Phillies offense has not been producing lately. And the same can be said for San Fran's. Think this ends up along the lines of a 4-1 or 5-1 game. 1.10 units to win 1.

Devil Rays -152: Shields is the real deal and I can't see this anemic KC offense touching him today. Their offense has been non-existent lately aside from Saturday, when they were lucky enough to draw Edwin Jackson. Meche has been solid this year, but his 1.41 road ERA is deceiving IMO. He's putting up dominant performances like Shields has done this year. In fact, he's allowed opposing hitters to hit about .300 against him on the road this year, and has a WHIP of 1.47 away from home. Together with his poor history against KC, this doesn't make for a solid day for him considering that he likely will have to work without much run support. 2.28 units to win 1.5.

Will be back later with a few other games. BOL to everyone on today's card.

Jibba · Jun 4, 2007

One more for the time being.

Yankees -101: 1.52 units to win 1.5.

everythingthatsgreen · Jun 4, 2007

Jibba!

Whatup man, Hope you had a good wkend, Sunday was brutal for me. Went 0-2-1, lone push was a miracle comeback by the Rockies -1.

I am on the Giants in the early game. I love Shields in the other game but have not touched it. I started a thread here, "Monday Discussion" but I will just bring some of those thought into here..

I am on LAD today, Lowe has been pitching great his last 3 starts, Malholm, well he just is not very good.

I am also on Twins +150 for value purposes. I think this line should be Weaver -130/Boof +120.. Maybe I am just a Boof Bonser homer but he should not go unoticed..

Boof last 7 starts:

5/29 vs CHW: W= 6.2ip, 7h, 1er, 6k, 3bb
5/23 @Tex: W= 5ip, 6h, 2er, 6k, 2bb
5/18 @Milk: W= 7ip, 3h, 1er, 11k, 1bb
5/13 Det: W= 5ip, 6h, 4er, 6k, 3bb
5/8 CHW: ND= 7ip, 8h, 1er, 7k, 1bb
5/2 @TB: ND= 6ip, 6h, 1er, 2k, 4bb
4/26 KC: ND= 5ip, 3h, 0er, 8k, 7bb

If Boof can go 6ip -2er of baseball, I like my chances with a +150 doggie.

Also want to add Boof taking his Whip from 1.46 on the yr to 1.18 over his last 3 games.

Weaver has a Whip of 1.58 on the yr and as seen it rise to 1.78 over his last 3 games.

Weaver is also 1-1 w/ 6.16era at home in 4 starts covering 19ip.

If Weaver doesnt get run support he gets a loss. Just my opinion.

Jibba · Jun 4, 2007

Hey ETG,

Saw that thread and thought you brought up some great points. Just didn't have time to add to the discussion over there. Think it's a great idea to have one thread where everyone can contribute to the discussion of various games though.

My weekend was pretty piss poor, as have been a lot of my weekends this year. Like you, I don't have nearly the time over the weekends as I do during the week.

I like the Dodgers myself, but haven't added them. Probably should do so soon if I plan on it, because I can't imagine that line will get any better. I also agree with the Twins play at that price, but currently it's down to around +140 so I'm going to watch and see what the line does. Same goes for the Red Sox and Orioles.

Also considering the Cubs and Marlins. Like getting Marquis at +132, and will probably grab it if it goes a little higher. Also think that the Braves without Chipper just shouldn't be more than a 2-1 dog over this Florida team, despite the large pitching mismatch. I know Hudson has never given up more than 3 runs against the Marlins, but odds might just force my hand on this one, especially considering that Obermueller hasn't been that bad on the road this year, even against a good offense like the Brewers.

Jibba · Jun 4, 2007

LA Dodgers -141: 2.12 units to win 1.5.

everythingthatsgreen · Jun 4, 2007

Yea as far as line movements...I like LAD will move up..

I wont touch Hudson at -215, I thought I saw -160 last night, maybe my imagination.

I had Hudson earlier this yr where he struck out 13 going for the complete game only to have Wickman and Cox piss that performance away in the 9th by leaving Hudson in and Wickman just being himself, no way I touch that.

I am stuck between the Cubs side or the Over. I am not a fan of Bush at all, his numbers suck vs the Cubs and maybe, just maybe the Cubs offense shows some consistency but they are a tough bunch to predict.

gabbana · Jun 4, 2007

jibba ..quick thought about bosox/a's

Jibba · Jun 4, 2007

everythingthatsgreen said:
Yea as far as line movements...I like LAD will move up..

I wont touch Hudson at -215, I thought I saw -160 last night, maybe my imagination.

I had Hudson earlier this yr where he struck out 13 going for the complete game only to have Wickman and Cox piss that performance away in the 9th by leaving Hudson in and Wickman just being himself, no way I touch that.

I am stuck between the Cubs side or the Over. I am not a fan of Bush at all, his numbers suck vs the Cubs and maybe, just maybe the Cubs offense shows some consistency but they are a tough bunch to predict.

I think you saw -160 when it was supposed to be Mitre pitching. Still leaning toward the Marlins in that one despite Hudson. Line is just too high IMO, possibly because the books knew the public would be all over Atlanta no matter where they put the line. Haven't checked out the %s on that one though.

I actually like Bush quite a bit, but think this line might be off enough to play the Cubs. Marquis has been money this year, especially on the road. Milwaukee may be back to their winning ways, but it's hard to say. Gonna have to keep watching it a bit longer.

BOL today.

Jibba · Jun 4, 2007

gabbana said:
jibba ..quick thought about bosox/a's

May make the Red Sox a play depending on where the line ends up. Haren has been great this year, but hasn't done it against an offense like this since the first week of the season. Should be a big test for him. Sox aren't playing great right now, but they're scoring runs and seem to like playing away from Fenway this year. Oakland's pen is decent, but nothing to be scared of. And their offense just isn't that good. At least not good enough to make me worry all that much with Tavares on the mound. If the number gets much higher than +141, then I think there will be too much value to pass up.

PrimoÃ…Â¾ · Jun 4, 2007

GOOD LUCK JIBBA

k:

VicVega91 · Jun 4, 2007

everythingthatsgreen said:
Yea as far as line movements...I like LAD will move up..

I wont touch Hudson at -215, I thought I saw -160 last night, maybe my imagination.

I had Hudson earlier this yr where he struck out 13 going for the complete game only to have Wickman and Cox piss that performance away in the 9th by leaving Hudson in and Wickman just being himself, no way I touch that.

I am stuck between the Cubs side or the Over. I am not a fan of Bush at all, his numbers suck vs the Cubs and maybe, just maybe the Cubs offense shows some consistency but they are a tough bunch to predict.

I am not a fan of Bush's either, however, his numbers against the Cubs are slightly better than Marquis's against the Brewers.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Probable Starters</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>

Jason Marquis, RHP</TD><TD class=bg3 vAlign=top><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD colSpan=3>2007 stats</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>70.2</TD><TD class=bg1>Innings Pitched</TD><TD>68.2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>5-2</TD><TD class=bg1>Wins-Losses</TD><TD>3-5</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>2.93</TD><TD class=bg1>Earned Run Average</TD><TD>5.64</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>23</TD><TD class=bg1>Walks</TD><TD>12</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>37</TD><TD class=bg1>Strikeouts</TD><TD>52</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>97</TD><TD class=bg1>Pitches Per Start</TD><TD>95</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD colSpan=3>Career vs. opponent</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>67.0</TD><TD class=bg1>Innings Pitched</TD><TD>41.2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>4-6</TD><TD class=bg1>Wins-Losses</TD><TD>1-3</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>4.43</TD><TD class=bg1>Earned Run Average</TD><TD>3.89</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>

Dave Bush, RHP</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

MIKEY.1TIME · Jun 4, 2007

Jibba said:
May make the Red Sox a play depending on where the line ends up. Haren has been great this year, but hasn't done it against an offense like this since the first week of the season. Should be a big test for him. Sox aren't playing great right now, but they're scoring runs and seem to like playing away from Fenway this year. Oakland's pen is decent, but nothing to be scared of. And their offense just isn't that good. At least not good enough to make me worry all that much with Tavares on the mound. If the number gets much higher than +141, then I think there will be too much value to pass up.

WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE SOX -120 2 OUT OF THREE

everythingthatsgreen · Jun 4, 2007

VicVega91 said:
I am not a fan of Bush's either, however, his numbers against the Cubs are slightly better than Marquis's against the Brewers.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Probable Starters</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>

Jason Marquis, RHP
</TD><TD class=bg3 vAlign=top><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD colSpan=3>2007 stats</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>70.2</TD><TD class=bg1>Innings Pitched</TD><TD>68.2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>5-2</TD><TD class=bg1>Wins-Losses</TD><TD>3-5</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>2.93</TD><TD class=bg1>Earned Run Average</TD><TD>5.64</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>23</TD><TD class=bg1>Walks</TD><TD>12</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>37</TD><TD class=bg1>Strikeouts</TD><TD>52</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>97</TD><TD class=bg1>Pitches Per Start</TD><TD>95</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD colSpan=3>Career vs. opponent</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>67.0</TD><TD class=bg1>Innings Pitched</TD><TD>41.2</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>4-6</TD><TD class=bg1>Wins-Losses</TD><TD>1-3</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD>4.43</TD><TD class=bg1>Earned Run Average</TD><TD>3.89</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD align=middle>

Dave Bush, RHP
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

valid...I am still debating the Over 9 in that game which what I feel more comfortable with..4-4 tie ends at a push at worse. I am waiting on some umpire info

Jibba · Jun 4, 2007

MIKEY.1TIME said:
WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE SOX -120 2 OUT OF THREE

Seems right around where it should be. Sox have a clear advantage against old friend Lenny DiNardo tomorrow. Kennedy hasn't fared very well against the Sox in the past, but the Sox have Wakefield facing him on Sunday and he's in one of his funks these days so it's hard to say how he'll do.

Jibba · Jun 4, 2007

everythingthatsgreen said:
valid...I am still debating the Over 9 in that game which what I feel more comfortable with..4-4 tie ends at a push at worse. I am waiting on some umpire info

Kind of like that over myself.

everythingthatsgreen · Jun 4, 2007

Jibba help me pull the trigger on Shields, having trouble convincing myself to lay the juice with TB.

Meche on the road:

1-1, 1.41era, 5g, 32ip, 38h......batters hitting .299 off him, .268 overall

I just think that era is due to change with guys hitting .300 off him and giving up a 1.1hit an inning.

Sheilds at home:

2-0, 3.44era, 7g, 52ip, 44h....batters hitting .226 off him, .214 overall

PyRoCaPPer · Jun 4, 2007

Good luck Jibbers. Hope you do well today.

Jibba · Jun 4, 2007

PyRo CaPPer said:
Good luck Jibbers. Hope you do well today.

Thanks man. Where you been?

PyRoCaPPer · Jun 4, 2007

Jibba said:
Thanks man. Where you been?

I'm around. Been caught up in the Cavs series' and still excited about winning the game a few nights ago and winning the East.

I'll be back playing MLB shortly, just need a long break cause i can't take blowing at least 1 lead every night and losing.

Jibba · Jun 4, 2007

everythingthatsgreen said:
Jibba help me pull the trigger on Shields, having trouble convincing myself to lay the juice with TB.

Meche on the road:

1-1, 1.41era, 5g, 32ip, 38h......batters hitting .299 off him, .268 overall

I just think that era is due to change with guys hitting .300 off him and giving up a 1.1hit an inning.

Sheilds at home:

2-0, 3.44era, 7g, 52ip, 44h....batters hitting .226 off him, .214 overall

Sorry man. Wrote out a few paragraphs on this one only to have IE crash on me. A little late now, but KC's offense has been non-existent for the most part over the past week, batting like .200, OBP of like .250, and SLG of around .320 I think. Going against a guy like Shields, that should only get worse today. Tampa's offense hasn't been great either, but against a guy like Meche who lets up too many baserunners, I think they should be alright. Plus, KC is just playing awful all around lately.

Originally liked the run line as well, but decided to stick with laying the juice on this one. BOL in whatever you choose/chose.