Are you an auto idiot if you dont lock in a huge 70 scalp?

CHOPTALK · Jun 4, 2007

I am in a real pickle here people.

I locked in on my college baseball game of my life with UL LAFAYETTE +170.

Now the line is UL LAFAYETTE -120. Texas A&M is now even money.

I can lock in a huge profit just by taking the AGGIES in this spot. But I would be throwing away my biggest bet in a long long time.

I knew the line was way way off when they opened UL at +170, and rightfully so, the line has gone all the way from +170 to -120.

What should I do.

Remove all your personal feelings on who you think should win.

This is a principle thing only. Do you always take the scalp, or do you just sit back and enjoy your great number on your top college baseball play of a lifetime?

Thanks.

lapdance · Jun 4, 2007

put half on T A&M

JakeT. · Jun 4, 2007

I always just sit back and enjoy a great number, but then again I bet so small the $15 I get from scalping ain't really worth it.

goodcall · Jun 4, 2007

If you like the bet, just look at it as getting great value. Your EV is the same whether you buy back or not

harrington · Jun 4, 2007

Always take the scalp, because Texas A&M could win and then you will really be pissed.

winbet · Jun 4, 2007

This sort of Dilemma is always a problem for recreational Bettor like yourself, the problem is you havent seen it enough and your the proverbial rabbit in the headlights. Over time, experience will tell you how to cope but the rule of thumb should be bet the way you started out. So if your trying to Arb or middle then you've succedded but jumping from one strategy to another beckons hard luck story. :thumbsup:

robmpink · Jun 4, 2007

Let it ride! :suomi:

CHOPTALK · Jun 4, 2007

winbet said:
This sort of Dilemma is always a problem for recreational Bettor like yourself, the problem is you havent seen it enough and your the proverbial rabbit in the headlights. Over time, experience will tell you how to cope but the rule of thumb should be bet the way you started out. So if your trying to Arb or middle then you've succedded but jumping from one strategy to another beckons hard luck story. :thumbsup:

Can you translate that into english for us recreational betters such as myself?

Timetopay · Jun 4, 2007

CHOPTALK said:
Can you translate that into english for us recreational betters such as myself?

I think hes calling you a chump in greek or italian or something

SportSavant · Jun 4, 2007

CHOPTALK said:
Can you translate that into english for us recreational betters such as myself?

translation:

if your initial intention was to hold the wager when you started, then hold the wager and stick to your plan.

if, however, your play was made knowing the line would move and you intended to scalp part of it off initially, ie it was a "forecast play" then you should also stick to your plan and scalp it.

winbet · Jun 4, 2007

SportSavant said:
translation:

if your initial intention was to hold the wager when you started, then hold the wager and stick to your plan.

if, however, your play was made knowing the line would move and you intended to scalp part of it off initially, ie it was a "forecast play" then you should also stick to your plan and scalp it.

top class :thumbsup:

Mr.Smith · Jun 4, 2007

shouldnt Lafayette be -150 ( or more) at Texas A&M anyway?

Journeyman · Jun 4, 2007

In your case I would let it ride Chop. ..I don't see you being a scalper.

shdw01 · Jun 4, 2007

SportSavant said:
translation:

if your initial intention was to hold the wager when you started, then hold the wager and stick to your plan.

if, however, your play was made knowing the line would move and you intended to scalp part of it off initially, ie it was a "forecast play" then you should also stick to your plan and scalp it.

what he said

nimue77 · Jun 4, 2007

Make it a Bonus Bet, win whatever on the side you currenty have or lose nothing on the other side.

CHOPTALK · Jun 4, 2007

Journeyman said:
In your case I would let it ride Chop. ..I don't see you being a scalper.

You are correct. Just wanted to know if I was an auto idiot.

goodcall · Jun 4, 2007

CHOPTALK said:
Just wanted to know if I was an auto idiot.

only if you can't change a tire:thumbsup:

BillyWaltersJr+ · Jun 4, 2007

Defintely take the scalp, no use in risking all of that money and only having a 50% chance of getting it back, or you could go for some free profit. I would go for the free profit any day.

royalfan · Jun 4, 2007

I don't hedge if I am pretty sure I will win. I think you should though since this is a homer play and you know next to nothing about AM.

royalfan · Jun 4, 2007

Dsethi said:
royal are you on A&M or staying away?

Staying away most likely.

Are you an auto idiot if you dont lock in a huge 70 scalp?

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