Jibba's Tuesday MLB

Jibba · Jun 5, 2007

Money Lines:

Favorites: 146-86 for +28.67 units
Underdogs: 56-58 for +16.74 units
Total: 202-144 for for +45.41 units

Totals: 5-1 for 5.13 units

Run Lines: 11-11 for +3.14 units

Parlays: 1-2 for -1.97 units

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5-3 on the day yesterday for +4.18 units. Thought I had a good shot at a big night with the Twins and Sox late, but Minnesota didn't show up and the Sox couldn't pull it off late. Hope to add a bit more today. Leaning toward one of two of the big doggies. Posted these two last night.

Marlins (G1) -117 (WSEX): Mitre is quitely having a great season. While he's only made 9 starts thus far, he's also only allowed 10 earned runs in those starts (51.2 IPs). He's limiting his walks better than he ever has, and has only allowed 2 in his last 4 starts. Overall, despite the losses to the Brewers over the weekend, I think Florida is playing well lately and they continued that trend by beating Hudson last night. I don't think they'll have any trouble with Carlysle, a guy who has never been able to stick in the bigs. Plus, if the Braves could only manage 3 runs against Obermueller, I like my chances with Mitre, who has looked great in 2 daytime starts this year. As long as Escobar doens't make a habit out of going 4-4, I like the chances on this one. 1.76 units to win 1.5.

Tigers -123 (WSEX): This Tigers team is coming around and is undervalued at this price. I think Robertson is much better than he's pitched lately, and should be able to snap out of it against the Rangers' weak offense. 1.85 units to win 1.5.

Be back in a bit with more. BOL today guys.

Jibba · Jun 5, 2007

Forgot to add this one, which is the only other play I have right now:

Padres -140 (WSEX): This is a big series for these teams (big as you can expect for June that is) and San Diego comes in with quite a bit in their favor. They're playing great ball right now, having won 15 of their last 21. They're at home with a top level pitcher going who happenst on fire lately and who has been unhittable at home this year (0.66 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, .172 BAA). And they're facing a pitcher who's getting too much respect based on his name alone. Sure, Jason Schmidt is a great pitcher. But he's just coming back from an injury that's kept him out since April 14th. He'll be limited tonight and I can't see him keeping up with Chris Young. 2.10 units to win 1.5.

gabbana · Jun 5, 2007

hey jibba , what do you think about padres over 3.5 runs team total thats a low line, if everyone is on padres they should score more then 3 shouldnt they?

what do you think.

Jibba · Jun 5, 2007

I expect them to score more than 3 against Schmidt. Line does seem a little low IMO.

PoppinFresh · Jun 5, 2007

Hey Jibba, they scratched Padilla due to some sore arm stuff and now have some guy who they called up from AAA named Rhienecker pitching against Detroit.

Jibba · Jun 5, 2007

Feel like I've been playing my boys a lot lately, but I think the books have been undervaluing them lately. Looking like this may turn out to be a big card today, but still need to do some more work. Adding:

Red Sox -147: Dice-K should be able to mow this A's lineup down tonight now that he's over his illness. I've watched him a lot this year and completely expect him to show a good deal of improvement as the season gets older and the Dice-K buzz is slowly forgotten. I've also seen a lot of Lenny DiNardo and know what to expect from him . . . and it's not much. I really don't believe he's anywhere near the pitcher his numbers so far make him look like. A guy just doesn't go from an ERA of 7.85, a WHIP of 2.0, and a BAA of .363, to an ERA of 1.80, a WHIP of 1.00 and a BAA of .213 overnight. 2.24 units to win 1.5.

Still working on leans on the D-Rays, Royals, Chi Sox, Nats, Rockies, and Giants. BOL to everyone.

Jibba · Jun 5, 2007

PoppinFresh said:
Hey Jibba, they scratched Padilla due to some sore arm stuff and now have some guy who they called up from AAA named Rhienecker pitching against Detroit.

Thanks Poppin. Was just wondering why it was taken OTB. Liked that one with Padilla on the mound. But still like it with Rheinecker throwing as long as I can get it at or around -130 to -135.

Jibba · Jun 5, 2007

Going to add two, but don't have time for writeups. Here's my current card:

Marlins: 1.76 units to win 1.5.
Padres: 2.10 units to win 1.5.
Red Sox: 2.24 units to win 1.5.
Tigers -134: 2.01 units to win 1.5.
Angels -1.5, +114: 1.5 units to win 1.71.

At the point, Tampa will be a play, but I'm going to wait on the lin as I think I can get closer to +250 later in the day as the public (hopefully) pounds Halladay. KC is still a possibility, but I'm not sure on that one. KC plays the Indians hard and De la Rosa lights it up now and then. It's already at about +260 and I have trouble turning down odds like that. Still some others I'm looking at as well. BOL.

Nino · Jun 5, 2007

Jibba,

New to the board but been living North of Boston for the past 30+ years. Where ya from? Good Luck

Jibba · Jun 5, 2007

Nino said:
Jibba,

New to the board but been living North of Boston for the past 30+ years. Where ya from? Good Luck

Nice. Welcome aboard Nino. Grew up in Boston, Lived up on the North Shore a few years before moving back to Boston for a few more. Now I'm just south of the city. Good luck to you too Nino.

Nino · Jun 5, 2007

Cool.....I travel into the City daily as I'm consulting at a customer over by the Navy Yard.....I like Dice K tonight with the rested Lowell, Lugo, Varitek and Crisp (as long as his belly ache is better). I had the over last night simply because the Sox are usually weary the first game of a West Coast trip....

Box the Indians, Jays and Smoltz in 4 teamers with the Mets (they own lefties) and Padres (Dodgers flew late last night and Schmidt coming back from injury, see King Felix and how he's bee doing since injury).

Talk to u soon.

gabbana · Jun 5, 2007

BOL today jibba i'm on padres and tigers as well so hope they win.

Jibba · Jun 5, 2007

Nino said:
Cool.....I travel into the City daily as I'm consulting at a customer over by the Navy Yard.....I like Dice K tonight with the rested Lowell, Lugo, Varitek and Crisp (as long as his belly ache is better). I had the over last night simply because the Sox are usually weary the first game of a West Coast trip....

Box the Indians, Jays and Smoltz in 4 teamers with the Mets (they own lefties) and Padres (Dodgers flew late last night and Schmidt coming back from injury, see King Felix and how he's bee doing since injury).

Talk to u soon.

Good luck with those. Been burned too many times in the past by parlaying big favs like that. These days I generally look first to see if the dog is worth a shot (like the Marlins last night).

Always nice to have another Sox fan around here. BOL tonight.

everythingthatsgreen · Jun 5, 2007

Jibba - I am also on the Marlins game early, only 1 I have played so far. I suspect the line is dropping because people are 1)scared to back Mitre and his hamstring and/or 2)Don't think Braves can lose again at home?

Mitre says the Hamstring is 100% - Miami Herald

He pitched lights out in May and Carlyle is outmatched by a Marlin team that can hit.

The other play tonight I like is the Padres. In short, you have a rested team, a hot team, as you said 15-6 L21, a hot pitcher at home, a motivated team, and a home team here in the Padres and that is too much to pass up right now.

Also add in the loss of Saito because bullpens matter if its close and SD has a top bullpen in the league.

Jibba · Jun 5, 2007

Gonna go ahead and get this out of the way now, as it looks like I'll be busy this afternoon. Big card for me today.

Marlins: 1.76 units to win 1.5.
Padres: 2.10 units to win 1.5.
Red Sox: 2.24 units to win 1.5.
Tigers -134: 2.01 units to win 1.5.
Angels -1.5, +114: 1.5 units to win 1.71.
Cubs -103: 1.55 units to win 1.5.
Giants +136: 1.5 units to win 2.04.
Devil Rays +230: 1 unit to win 2.3.
Royals +260: 1 unit to win 2.6.

Slight lean on the Chi Sox, but I can't seem to get Yankee games right. Also really like the Rockies, but want to figure out what I'm missing because the line dropped a good deal today. That actually goes for the Marlins, Reds and Rockies too. Anyway, BOL to everyone today and hopefully the Fish can start my day off on a good note.

Jibba · Jun 5, 2007

everythingthatsgreen said:
Jibba - I am also on the Marlins game early, only 1 I have played so far. I suspect the line is dropping because people are 1)scared to back Mitre and his hamstring and/or 2)Don't think Braves can lose again at home?

Mitre says the Hamstring is 100% - Miami Herald

He pitched lights out in May and Carlyle is outmatched by a Marlin team that can hit.

The other play tonight I like is the Padres. In short, you have a rested team, a hot team, as you said 15-6 L21, a hot pitcher at home, a motivated team, and a home team here in the Padres and that is too much to pass up right now.

Also add in the loss of Saito because bullpens matter if its close and SD has a top bullpen in the league.

Agree with everything you said man. As you can see, I like a lot of games today. Feel like there's some solid value out there and I'm crossing my fingers for a solid day. Glad to hear you like the Marlins because I was starting to second guess myself with so many people on Atlanta. BOL today.

RoBoKnowsCop · Jun 5, 2007

Jibba said:
Forgot to add this one, which is the only other play I have right now:

Padres -140 (WSEX): This is a big series for these teams (big as you can expect for June that is) and San Diego comes in with quite a bit in their favor. They're playing great ball right now, having won 15 of their last 21. They're at home with a top level pitcher going who happenst on fire lately and who has been unhittable at home this year (0.66 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, .172 BAA). And they're facing a pitcher who's getting too much respect based on his name alone. Sure, Jason Schmidt is a great pitcher. But he's just coming back from an injury that's kept him out since April 14th. He'll be limited tonight and I can't see him keeping up with Chris Young. 2.10 units to win 1.5.

I really don't like Young in this spot. I think he is due to get absolutely torched.

Look at his HR%/fly ball rate. (3.5% of his fly balls are going for homers). Data shows pitchers have little or no control over whether their fly balls go for homers.
"HR/Fly or HR/F (Link)<dl><dd>Home Runs as a percent of outfield flyballs. The home run totals are adjusted by the home ballpark's historic home run rates. Research has shown that about 11% to 12% of outfield flies are hit for home runs. For pitchers, significant variations from 11% are probably the result of "luck," but for hitters this stat is more indicative of a true skill (hitting the ball hard!)."</dd></dl>Basically, he is an extreme flyball pitcher who's hr rate/fly balls will likely triple from here on out. He is only getting 27.6% Ground Balls (lowest in Baseball, this is bad), while also allowing 19.5% Line Drives (high or very high).

Last year he had 13.2% of Fly's become homers. If you normalize his homer rate, his era would be 4.49 this year. Tread with caution Jibba.

Jibba · Jun 5, 2007

Solid info Robo. Maybe I'm too high on this kid, but from everything I've seen of him so far, I just love his stuff. With regard to his HR%, fortunately enough he's facing the Dodgers tonight. The Dodgers are tied for dead last in baseball with only 35 HRs on the year (tied with the Nats). So I just don't see this as the game when that number starts to catch up with him. And he's going against a pitcher who has a ton of pressure on him tonight, and who should take at least a game or two to get adjusted again. Can't see him going deep tonight (although I wouldn't put it past Grady to leave him in too long in a bad spot). And with the Dodgers' bullpen being less than 100%, I still think this is a solid play. Thanks again though. I really do appreciate that info. You obviously know your stuff.

silver7 · Jun 5, 2007

Jibba You Made My Point

re. LAD HR`s or lack thereof. And Schmidt will most likely need several gms to get up to speed. Love SD here.

Jibba · Jun 5, 2007

Glad you like it silver. Hope we cash it.

Well, got burned on the early game. Mitre pitched a hell of a game but the Fish didn't get to Carlyle. Pretty crazy to watch them knock around Hudson like a piniata last night and then turn around and throw up a stinker against an awful pitcher like Carlyle. But that's why they play the games. Hopefully we'll have a few people saying the same kinds of things about the Indians and Bluejays tonight.