Good example of what I do is what I did tonight. I'm typically a 200 player, but I will not lay 480-200 on Halladay like tonight. So, I took Sabathia, Halladay and Smoltz and boxed the three of them in a parlay with the Padres in one bet and the Mets in the other. The way I look at it, if those three high priced favorites can't win, you don't deserve to hit the parlay. tonight, with the way Halladay started, I chalked it up as a loss. Little did I know 
Doesn't matter as Smoltz lost.
Doesn't matter as Smoltz lost.
Let's compare ML and RL...
We'll say that one out of every five games is decided by one run BY THE TEAM YOU'RE BETTING ON.
So, let's say you go 3-2 on the money line and 2-3 on the Run Line.
We'll also say that you're betting -200 ML and -1.5 -105 RL
If you go 3-2 laying -200 on each, that's 300 - (2*200) = -100
If you go 2-3 laying -1.5 -105, that's 200 - (3*105) = -115
Almost the same result...
However, let's take it to the extreme. Say you go 1-4 on the ML and 0-5 on the RL:
1-4 on the ML is 100 - (4*200) = -700
0-5 on the RL is - (5*105) = -525
You're saving yourself a tremendous amount of money in the event of a disastrous day.
What if it's a great one?
5-0 on the ML is 500 - 0 = 500
4-1 on the RL is 400 - 105 = 295
So, you're basically taking a risk. I'd rather be safe than sorry.
Hope this helps and makes some sort of sense.
We'll say that one out of every five games is decided by one run BY THE TEAM YOU'RE BETTING ON.
So, let's say you go 3-2 on the money line and 2-3 on the Run Line.
We'll also say that you're betting -200 ML and -1.5 -105 RL
If you go 3-2 laying -200 on each, that's 300 - (2*200) = -100
If you go 2-3 laying -1.5 -105, that's 200 - (3*105) = -115
Almost the same result...
However, let's take it to the extreme. Say you go 1-4 on the ML and 0-5 on the RL:
1-4 on the ML is 100 - (4*200) = -700
0-5 on the RL is - (5*105) = -525
You're saving yourself a tremendous amount of money in the event of a disastrous day.
What if it's a great one?
5-0 on the ML is 500 - 0 = 500
4-1 on the RL is 400 - 105 = 295
So, you're basically taking a risk. I'd rather be safe than sorry.
Hope this helps and makes some sort of sense.
very simple, if you like a heavy favorite you bet it just like you big a big dog, straight up.
There is no shortcuting juice. You cant parley a heavy fav with another heavy fav. It does not remove 1 cent of juice. As a matter of fact, unless you are playing at a book with true parley odds, you acually add even more juice to your play.
I generally try to leave anything above -150 alone, but to tell you the truth, that logic is flawed and I will be the first to admit that.
Value is value no matter how you slice it. The reason its so hard to find value in the -200 range is because the money line bracks off so much from the 10cent line the further up you go. So this means the value on those favs are not even really worth the effort of capping them. Why waste my time calculating value on all these -200 bets when im only going to find real value maybe once or twice a week. And when if you do find value, you better make sure your right, because it sure is hell on your bankroll losing one of them basterds.
There is no shortcuting juice. You cant parley a heavy fav with another heavy fav. It does not remove 1 cent of juice. As a matter of fact, unless you are playing at a book with true parley odds, you acually add even more juice to your play.
I generally try to leave anything above -150 alone, but to tell you the truth, that logic is flawed and I will be the first to admit that.
Value is value no matter how you slice it. The reason its so hard to find value in the -200 range is because the money line bracks off so much from the 10cent line the further up you go. So this means the value on those favs are not even really worth the effort of capping them. Why waste my time calculating value on all these -200 bets when im only going to find real value maybe once or twice a week. And when if you do find value, you better make sure your right, because it sure is hell on your bankroll losing one of them basterds.
To tell you the truth, no number.
Thats just what I do.
But there is a such thing as taking a favorite at -230 that has value.
Smart money gets bet on chalk every single day.
Its just my personal preference to spend my time on the -150 and less games because the further up you go on the moneyline break off, the less of a chance you have to find value anyway, so why should I waste my time looking for that needle in a haystack.
But I will be the first to admit that there is nothing wrong with betting on -200 fav if it has value on the moneyline.
IF I am taking a fave that big, I only do it in two-team parlays (not necessarily with other big faves)
AND
I buy back by putting some $ on the underdog with a straight bet on the +1.5 RL.
Worked perfectly tonight with TOR and CLEVE each winning by just the one run.
AND
I buy back by putting some $ on the underdog with a straight bet on the +1.5 RL.
Worked perfectly tonight with TOR and CLEVE each winning by just the one run.
