I like Hamels a lot and think the kid is going to be something special one day as long as he stays healthy. He has the higher era but imo I don't think that Maine's era of 2.81 truly reflects what he has looked like lately. Maine posts a 4.76era over his last 3 games and while I think that is high, his era falls in the range of 3.75-4.25 on the yr imo, not 2.81 or 4.76..The Phillies are 8-4 when Hamels pitches and the Mets are 8-3 when Maine throws, something has to give here. On the yr, Mets hit LHP at .319, a mind blowing number however this number is now at .276 in L10 games.. Phillies hit RHP better than they do LHP and on the yr avg .274 and .263 in L10 games. I think most people feel Mets crush LHP but I am starting to feel that their numbers are regressing to a more normal number and a number in range with how the Phillies hit RHP. Now its pretty hard to understand why Maine struggles at home and his home numbers are not even close to him overall numbers or his away numbers. Batters are hitting .286 off Maine when he pitches in Shea. Hamels has had a problem this yr with the long ball, giving up 11hr's this yr, the good thing is that he doesnt walk many batters to really kill himself with the HR's. Shea is a pretty big park so he might be able to keep it in the park. The Mets are suffering from some injuries and lineup is getting lighter. Alou, Valentin, and Green have been down, now Easley and Chavez will be unavailble.. A potential lineup could look something like this, not sure what order but pretty sure on the players:
Reyes (SS), Gotay (2b), Beltran (CF), Delgado (1b), Wright (3b), LoDuca (C), Newhan (LF), Gomez (RF), Maine (P)...
Hamels has to avoid letting Reyes, Beltran, or Delgado beat him, the only 3 batters in the Mets lineup with any type of success off him. Hamels should be able to get through the bottom part of the order with little trouble. Philly bullpen always puts a scare and some risk into a play but Hamels averages 7ip/start on the yr. Maine averages 6ip/start and has not worked into the 7th inning in any of his last 6 starts. As far as line movement comes in, Hamels is a pretty well known and liked pitcher but the Mets have a lot of backers so that "avoid the sweep" money could be coming in which in that cause would basically drop Hamels to +money.
lean to the Phillies but goodluck on your play
BOL to you
k:
